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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting fti
Hi All,
So bernanke speaks, but what is he saying.
Are they gonna spend less on the fireworks, or is yhere gonna be sponsors (suckers). LOL
Looks like 4th july fever is alive.
Hi,

I don't know, but I had luck, I could recover some losses....
I was not a good warrior today, I had only luck.

Textor
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled Tuesday that further interest rate cuts are unlikely because of concerns about inflation.

High oil prices are a double-edged sword that can both put a damper on already weak growth and spread inflation,

Bernanke, however, suggested that leaving rates at their current levels should be sufficient to accomplish the Fed's twin goals of nurturing economic growth while preventing inflation from taking off.

Economic growth in the current quarter, he acknowledged, is "likely to be relatively weak." Even as he reiterated the Fed's hope for a pickup in growth in the second half of this year and into 2009, Bernanke said the economy continues to battle against a trio of negative forces _ a housing slump, credit problems and fragile financial markets.



Nothing new, seems market very short USD.
Hi,fti! How are you doing today? You did not answer my question, I' like to ask it again.
Alex
Quoting alexfot
Hi, fti!
I'd like to ask a question, it might be a stupid one. Is it possible for Fed, or maybe for 1 tier bank(banks), to move the price down by buying, and to move it up by making sells. The reason I'm asking, because sometimes I have a feeling that this is happening, from time to time on the market. If it's impossible, which most likely is, then just say No.
Alex
Quoting alexfot
Hi,fti! How are you doing today? You did not answer my question, I' like to ask it again.
Alex
Hi Alexfot. I am doing very well , thanks.
I thought I already answered this question.
If not here goes again.

The Structure of the FOREX market is OTC (over the counter), so evry body is going to every body elses counters and asking for a bid and offer price to trade.

Lets say I am tier 1 bank LMB,
You see the market data feed is trading 1.0000/02
You come to my counter asking for price to deal for 10 mio USD
I quote you 1.0050/52.
So the answer is YES I have the freedom to move market wherever I like to.

But if you can buy your USD at 1.0002 somewhere ,as suggested above.
You would surely sell me the 10 mio USD at 1.0050 and buy elsewhere at 1.0002 and get an arbitrage profit of 48 pips in 1 second.

And will continue to buy elsewhere and sell me until you cannot arbitrage for profits.
So the answer is also NO , in that we cannot simply quote wherever we want to as we carry a ball and chain of 2 pips spread. and if we where out of the market , someone will arbitrage for profits.

Hope you understand now.

regards

This is not so for retail., as you trade with leverage facilities from the broker, you have to buy or sell with them.

So the direct answer to your question is , YES market makers can move the market anywhere they like , even without dealing. BUT the market can catch them for arbitrage if it disagrees, ( if they can profit by the actions)
Quoting fti
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled Tuesday that further interest rate cuts are unlikely because of concerns about inflation.

High oil prices are a double-edged sword that can both put a damper on already weak growth and spread inflation,

Bernanke, however, suggested that leaving rates at their current levels should be sufficient to accomplish the Fed's twin goals of nurturing economic growth while preventing inflation from taking off.

Economic growth in the current quarter, he acknowledged, is "likely to be relatively weak." Even as he reiterated the Fed's hope for a pickup in growth in the second half of this year and into 2009, Bernanke said the economy continues to battle against a trio of negative forces _ a housing slump, credit problems and fragile financial markets.



Nothing new, seems market very short USD.
Hi, Fti:

"Tuesday that further interest rate cuts are unlikely because of concerns about inflation.

Bernanke, however, suggested that leaving rates at their current levels should be sufficient to accomplish the Fed's twin goals of nurturing economic growth while preventing inflation from taking off."

Maybe this is the reason why USD strenthened.

The market reacted so voilently, almost 200 pips in one hour for E/U!

Why GBP/USD is stronger compared to E/U, Fti?

Regards.

David
  • Post #2,906
  • Quote
  • Edited Jun 4, 2008 5:54am Jun 3, 2008 10:41pm | Edited Jun 4, 2008 5:54am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, Fti:

"Tuesday that further interest rate cuts are unlikely because of concerns about inflation.

Bernanke, however, suggested that leaving rates at their current levels should be sufficient to accomplish the Fed's twin goals of nurturing economic growth while preventing inflation from taking off."

Maybe this is the reason why USD strenthened.

The market reacted so voilently, almost 200 pips in one hour for E/U!

Why GBP/USD is stronger compared to E/U, Fti?

Regards.


David
Hi David,
Why?
Well I never ponder, why? Only what I must do "strategies" to get into the flow.

"The US dollar was on the defensive heading into the US session before Fed Chairman Bernanke finally conceded that the weaker dollar was contributing to higher inflation in the US."

From the commentary statement that I read, it seems that the chair may be saying that he blundered when he knife drove the US rates. Question is what will be his next action. Hope that its not another blunder. Like raise rates!!
Lets see if he can find the rates equilibrium first before he acts again.

I don't know wheresome people read their economics,.
But of course when they move to devalue their currency ,
their PPP (purchasing power parity) loses ,
so prices of good & services will inflate.
Why are they so surprised that their action is causing inflation.
What's really horrible is that their actions is causing troubles in other economies, through the black gold (oil) proxy.
My god, what schools didi they go to?

So be watchful, there seems no real reasons for USD strength.
However stay nimble for new developments always.

Obama wants change, lets see if he got what it takes!!

regards
Hi fti,

I am fully aware that I have a strong tendency to fight the trend. I know there are always conflicting trends in the market but almost invariably I end up going against the trend I have initially chosen to follow! I have survived through prudence (small lots) and patience. But I am becoming tired of this. I am not sure if it is indiscipline or the scorpion in me (or both). What can I do to overcome this? Hmmm... I am 48 years old but not closed to changes... (hopefully).
Women-know your limits!

Inserted Video



I have gone into hiding, incase any women traders lack a sense of humor.
Quoting seeit
Women-know your limits!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjxY9rZwNGU


I have gone into hiding, incase any women traders lack a sense of humor.

seeit,

Yes very funny.

Now wait your turn for a good whipping from leighsww.

Regards,


BabeFX.
Quoting seeit
Women-know your limits!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjxY9rZwNGU


I have gone into hiding, incase any women traders lack a sense of humor.
Hi seeit,

Ai Ya, you catch worm and allow it up you own behind.

Don't trouble trouble, until trouble troubles you, la
Now, you have no where on this earth you can hide.
Super SCORPION.
Good Luck.

regards
Quoting fti
Hi seeit,


Now, you have no where on this earth you can hide.

Good Luck.

regards
fti

He's gonna need a lot of luck. I already sent bounty hunters out after him.

Just kidding.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
Quoting Jairo
Hi fti,

I am fully aware that I have a strong tendency to fight the trend. I know there are always conflicting trends in the market but almost invariably I end up going against the trend I have initially chosen to follow! I have survived through prudence (small lots) and patience. But I am becoming tired of this. I am not sure if it is indiscipline or the scorpion in me (or both). What can I do to overcome this? Hmmm... I am 48 years old but not closed to changes... (hopefully).
Hi Jairo,

I believe your style of trading is called contrarian trading.
If this is your style , then trade congestions,
once you see trend developing get out.

This is a "personality complex".
You tend to like to go against the grains of things.
If you like ,"Go against the crowd" tendency.
you can only change this behaviour by under-going hypnosis correction.
This is serious matter, seek professional assist.
Were you very rebellious , when you were young?

regards
Hi,

Hey , don't let the lethargic markets get to the head, already.

regards

Correction: Dead market, I'm off,
see ya next week.
Fti, thank you for your reply. I think you are basically (if not fully) right. Hmmm... a third factor conspiring... indecision . Some comments:

Quoting fti
Hi Jairo,

I believe your style of trading is called contrarian trading.
If this is your style , then trade congestions (or trend exhaustions?!? predictive, maybe?!?), once you see trend developing get out. OMG, get out of the best part?!? That's harsh!!

This is a "personality complex".
You tend to like to go against the grains of things.
If you like ,"Go against the crowd" tendency.

I like to look at things from all possible points of view. I never take anything for its face value. Sometimes I take long northless walks and fail to see the obvious. 11 years in the market and still struggling is a good example.
But I am too hardheaded to give up .

you can only change this behaviour by under-going hypnosis correction.
This is serious matter, seek professional assist.

I can't impose that on me. I have made some experiments. Though I try to collaborate, even a very good professional hypnotist couldn't push my self conciousness aside. I have to fight this battle by myself.

Were you very rebellious , when you were young?

I think I was VERY rebellious. Maybe it is simply a matter of using the rebel energy in my favor (not allowing the market to deviate me from my original plan). Maybe I can escape from falling into rigidity by the "see by all possible angles" mania.

regards
Thanks again. Please don't lose too much time with me. I think I am near my goal but can't see how much time I will take to travel that distance.
2 Jairo:
May i give you an advice
I fought with my nature six years to get to profits.
Finally I understood that simplest technic known as S&R recognition make me profitable.
Now Every morning I always go through process of S&R identification.
During day I use trends if I can see them, but currenly I look more for Impulses of market before S&R and after S&R.
And Candlesticks in conjuction with S&R finally started to fire
So
Two simplest technics - S&R and Candesticks make my day.
it's o'k to win ...
Quoting zenseven
2 Jairo:
May i give you an advice
I fought with my nature six years to get to profits.
Finally I understood that simplest technic known as S&R recognition make me profitable.
Now Every morning I always go through process of S&R identification.
During day I use trends if I can see them, but currenly I look more for Impulses of market before S&R and after S&R.
And Candlesticks in conjuction with S&R finally started to fire
So
Two simplest technics - S&R and Candesticks make my day.
zenseven.

Please clarify.

When talking about S&R are you talking 5min,10min,15min, 30min,60min,120min,240min or Daily.


Regards,

BabeFX.
BabeFX:
I look for 1h&4h&Daily S&R.
During the day I look for newly established S&R at 5 min to watch possible reversals and continuation points
Regards,
it's o'k to win ...
Quoting zenseven
BabeFX:
I look for 1h&4h&Daily S&R.
During the day I look for newly established S&R at 5 min to watch possible reversals and continuation points
Regards,

Thanx zenseven,

S&R levels are very important.

BabeFX.


Holy Grail "Want what the market wants"
sorry...what does EA stand for?

Thanks!!!
Quoting nemke
sorry...what does EA stand for?

Thanks!!!
What do you mean expert advisor?
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