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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #87,641
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:01am Jun 3, 2008 3:01am
Quoting shakesfx
Care to show us what you see?
Sorry don't know how to post charts yet...but what i see on

daily: there was a strong ichimoku buy signal - which started the initial up trend - price has now fallen but is hovering above the kumo which has strong resistance.

on the weekly -price is being attracted by the Kijen Sen - this is were i think there will be lots of stops.

This is why i think up move is possible before down move.

However i can see the candle stick formation on the weekly which is flaging to the downside
  • #87,642
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:02am Jun 3, 2008 3:02am
Quoting shakesfx
Well I'll post what I see then. 4hr Chart, Spine has been broken (white line(156SMA)).
what do you make of the upturn though .... has got more severe while I was typing this .....
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  • #87,643
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:02am Jun 3, 2008 3:02am
I'm just wondering who would be crazy enough (institutions that is, not us! (I know we're all crazy!) to buy in this volatility? Surely the dealers wouldn't even attempt to place Buys when the knife is falling? I think they would wait out till the end of the week, or next week for a stable couple of ranging days IMHO. Also G/U is heavy and TOO CLOSE to 1.96, just below 1.96 there are plenty of stops to be eaten....Just being a contrarian again
  • #87,644
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:05am Jun 3, 2008 3:05am
Quoting msniper
in my opinion if the 1 hour close above 204.88 we have room for going up more to 205.25 at least
it close at 204.85 close enough to 204.88

any way i still think it will push up little bit to 205.25 or more

i dunno what the news after 30 mins will do hope it will support the bullish so we can sell from higher levels
  • #87,645
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:06am Jun 3, 2008 3:06am
Quoting shakesfx
I'm just wondering who would be crazy enough (institutions that is, not us! (I know we're all crazy!) to buy in this volatility? Surely the dealers wouldn't even attempt to place Buys when the knife is falling? I think they would wait out till the end of the week, or next week for a stable couple of ranging days IMHO. Also G/U is heavy and TOO CLOSE to 1.96, just below 1.96 there are plenty of stops to be eaten....Just being a contrarian again
banks?

however, rubberband has been stretched too much, concerning the speculative pushes in prelondon which you see in M1, seems 204 had time bomb stop losses triggered.
  • #87,646
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:08am Jun 3, 2008 3:08am
Quoting rsharpe30
what do you make of the upturn though .... has got more severe while I was typing this .....

Bull trap. Again.

But it's only my opinion and i could be wrong. Those MA's are good for a different perspective, but take a lot of screen time to be able to see whats going on IMHO. I wouldn't use them solely for trading, but with candles, Aus's system, S/R etc etc.
  • #87,647
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:08am Jun 3, 2008 3:08am
Quoting shakesfx
I'm just wondering who would be crazy enough (institutions that is, not us! (I know we're all crazy!) to buy in this volatility? Surely the dealers wouldn't even attempt to place Buys when the knife is falling? I think they would wait out till the end of the week, or next week for a stable couple of ranging days IMHO. Also G/U is heavy and TOO CLOSE to 1.96, just below 1.96 there are plenty of stops to be eaten....Just being a contrarian again
When banks need money, they can't wait till the end of the week. Also, they check their records, see last order they had was at 204.5 or something, and maybe will only buy at 204.5, they don't care if it goes up or down, they know it will go up and down, but want it for a certain price. Just thoughts, nothing else.
  • #87,648
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:09am Jun 3, 2008 3:09am
Quoting Big Bruv
Sorry don't know how to post charts yet...but what i see on

daily: there was a strong ichimoku buy signal - which started the initial up trend - price has now fallen but is hovering above the kumo which has strong resistance.

on the weekly -price is being attracted by the Kijen Sen - this is were i think there will be lots of stops.

This is why i think up move is possible before down move.

However i can see the candle stick formation on the weekly which is flaging to the downside

u should wait for this daily candle to close before taking the buy signal (kijun sen bounce). the kumo cloud starts at 203.00 - 203.60, lines up with my view of supports.
  • #87,649
  • Edited 3:16am Jun 3, 2008 3:12am | Edited 3:16am
Quoting lilmoe
u should wait for this daily candle to close before taking the buy signal (kijun sen bounce). the kumo cloud starts at 203.00 - 203.60, lines up with my view of supports.
tanks bro....dats what i intend to do...actually i took a cheeky buy with small lots @ 204.24 on 30mins
  • #87,650
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:20am Jun 3, 2008 3:20am
Hope we're not going to Grandma pingpong between 204-205 for the rest of the day...
  • #87,651
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:20am Jun 3, 2008 3:20am
Quoting shakesfx
I'm just wondering who would be crazy enough (institutions that is, not us! (I know we're all crazy!) to buy in this volatility? Surely the dealers wouldn't even attempt to place Buys when the knife is falling? I think they would wait out till the end of the week, or next week for a stable couple of ranging days IMHO. Also G/U is heavy and TOO CLOSE to 1.96, just below 1.96 there are plenty of stops to be eaten....Just being a contrarian again
Here's another thought. Say on Monday all the banks needed yen, maybe they needed to borrow money for the beginning of the month, or for whatever reason. Who knows. So 1 bank holds up sign that says we'll trade pounds for 206 yen, another bank says 205.7 because they are more desperate. Finally price reaches down to 204 or so. Next day, every bank has their yen , they don't need anymore yen. So they say 204.5? You have be joking, how about 206. We want our pounds. We need our pounds. If we sell them , we'll just have buy more. Ect. So the Tokyo banks have lower their rates, and vise versa. The big interbanks make up most of the market, and the brokers will average their prices for the rates you see. - To the best of my knowledge.
  • #87,652
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:30am Jun 3, 2008 3:30am
i shorted cable at DP which happened to be in confluence with this TL

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  • #87,653
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:30am Jun 3, 2008 3:30am
Quoting lilmoe
i shorted cable at DP which happened to be in confluence with this TL

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SL @ 1.9710
  • #87,654
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:31am Jun 3, 2008 3:31am
my 2 cents why it's stalling
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  • #87,655
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:33am Jun 3, 2008 3:33am
Construction PMI

Actual 43.9
Forecast 45.7
Previous 46.1

a bit low than expected
  • #87,656
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:33am Jun 3, 2008 3:33am
Quoting Clouds
Here's another thought. Say on Monday all the banks needed yen, maybe they needed to borrow money for the beginning of the month, or for whatever reason. Who knows. So 1 bank holds up sign that says we'll trade pounds for 206 yen, another bank says 205.7 because they are more desperate. Finally price reaches down to 204 or so. Next day, every bank has their yen , they don't need anymore yen. So they say 204.5? You have be joking, how about 206. We want our pounds. We need our pounds. If we sell them , we'll just have buy more. Ect. The big interbanks make up most of the market, and the brokers will average their prices for the rates you see. - To the best of my knowledge.
I understand, but what if the ratios between currencies are as per norm at the moment, but currencies devaluate together, along with Oil and Gold dropping...see what i mean?

That's why I'm wondering if we are going to see a uncoupling of correlation between currencies (such as you might have noticed in the last 2/3 weeks at times) and a mass freefall across the market.....seems to be on the cards, and charts.
  • #87,657
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:34am Jun 3, 2008 3:34am
GBP Construction PMI has been just anounced. Previuos value was 46.1 and estimate value was 45.7. The actual value came 43.9.

The news boosted the GBP/JPY downwards!
  • #87,658
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:35am Jun 3, 2008 3:35am
Quoting lilmoe
i shorted cable at DP which happened to be in confluence with this TL

Attachment

Stop imitating me!
  • #87,659
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:36am Jun 3, 2008 3:36am
This morning's fall has been caused by a fall in the dollar. At 3.55 GMT the Swissy and UJ both dropped under their respective daily pivots and fell into Frankies Hour, before bouncing just before the London Open - UJ held at its 61.8 retrace off its hourly chart at 103.95 and swissy at its S1 of 1.0312.

Cable also fell slightly before making a higher low at 9610 - however, it was unable to drop further whilst the Euro was in a strong rally +80 since 5am GMT.

The net result for GJ was a 150 pip drop from its Asian highs - a double top on the short TFs at 205.50 - to hit its 204 level and bounce up 98 pips from LO.

This bounce is right into my DZ on my 15 min chart - a great area to sell - especially with the weak UK construction data and a falling Swissy that should pull UJ down with it.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #87,660
  • Jun 3, 2008 3:36am Jun 3, 2008 3:36am
Quick!!! TAXI...!!!!
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