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GBP Patterns, Facts, Trivia

  • #101
  • Jan 31, 2007 5:08am Jan 31, 2007 5:08am
This is a break out on the gbpusd range every half hour and 4hrs. My first set of 4 hr ranges begins at 6pm eastern. The numbers in the blue are 4hrs.

US 1 Hour 4 Hour

Eastern Pip Range Pip Range

Time Starting At Starting At
6:00 pm 11 35
6:30 pm 12
7:00 pm 11
7:30 pm 12
8:00 pm 14
8:30 pm 13
9:00 pm 14
9:30 pm 12
10:00 pm 11 29
10:30 pm 10
11:00 pm 11
11:30 pm 11
12:00 am 10
12:30 am 11
1:00 am 12
1:30 am 14
2:00 am 20 64
2:30 am 23
3:00 am 26
3:30 am 23
4:00 am 24
4:30 am 26
5:00 am 21
5:30 am 21
6:00 am 19 75
6:30 am 17
7:00 am 19
7:30 am 17
8:00 am 25
8:30 am 36
9:00 am 28
9:30 am 26
10:00 am 33 60
10:30 am 27
11:00 am 23
11:30 am 20
12:00 pm 18
12:30 pm 16
1:00 pm 15
1:30 pm 14
2:00 pm 19 34
2:30 pm 16
3:00 pm 12
3:30 pm 12
4:00 pm 11
4:30 pm 12
5:00 pm 13
5:30 pm 12
  • #102
  • Jan 31, 2007 7:10am Jan 31, 2007 7:10am
Quoting goodthings
A note of interest on the high and low for the gbpusd. It seems like these points happen frequently at around 10am are there abouts. This is when these fib retracement levels come into play. Still putting together information on this but it seems like around half the time this is when the high and low is established and the retracements happen.
Very interesting. Thank you, goodthings, as always, your posts are thought-provoking. Indeed, on Mondays, Thursdays, and Fridays, the largest % of day's highs and lows is between GMT 15:00-15:59 (10:00-10:59 US Eastern time): about 10% in 2005-2006. On Tuesdays and Wednesdays, the peak hour is GMT 14:00-14:59. If we take the three "champion" hours, GMT 13:00-15:59, they account together for about 26% of daily highs/lows. I use Mondays, Thursdays, and Fridays GMT 15:00 for range breakouts, but now I'll try to see, whether retracements can be traded then...

It seems to me, that if I could look at the charts with days starting and ending at London open, I could make much more sense of them... I'm sort of psychologically "trapped" in the way my broker represents the day (GMT+2), which coincides with the time zone I'm in...
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #103
  • Feb 1, 2007 7:46pm Feb 1, 2007 7:46pm
Pip Total to date (19 trading days) for 2007 For GbpUsd 2587 for a Daily Average Range (DAR) 136 Pips
Pip Total for first 19 days of 2006 For GbpUsd 2652 for a Daily Average Range (DAR) 140 Pips
Weekly Average Range (WAR) in 2007 For GbpUsd is 344 pips
Weekly Average Range (WAR) same period of time in 2006 for GbpUsd 333 pips
Weekly Average Range (WAR) For GbpUsd All of 2006 318 pips
Weekly Average Range (WAR) For GbpUsd for 2006 & 2007 319 pips
So far the High is 9739 and Low is 9482 for a range of 257. It is currently trading at 9666 and the NFP report is coming out tommorrow
  • #104
  • Feb 1, 2007 10:35pm Feb 1, 2007 10:35pm
Here is a chart on how the GbpUsd did a 150 pip run before the news turned it around and it went 180 some pips in the other direction. This chart shows retracements on that run. Just wondering if anybody has some thoughts on proper stop losses. Up until a couple of months ago all I used was 35 pip trailing sl with with it moving every 10 pips. Kept getting knocked out of trades that was going in my direction. Changed so now use SL based on supports and resistence and going as high as a 65 sl. Also have a tendancy to change strategy after it has moved a 100 pips or 125 pips. Figure if it starts to retrace at those points (depending time of day,news announcements, fibs, etc.) its hardly worth it to stay in with a 35 pip sl because you are going to only gain a few more pips on the most part beyond a retracement point of 100 pips to 125 pips.
Attached Image
  • #105
  • Feb 2, 2007 3:12am Feb 2, 2007 3:12am
Quoting goodthings
Just wondering if anybody has some thoughts on proper stop losses.
IMHO, it's not a matter of thoughts, but of backtesting and optimization. I use mostly range breakouts at London and NY opens, and I've found that SLs of 50-65 are usually the best for these trades. But now I've finished back-testing and start forward-testing a completely crazy system of London morning breakouts with tiny profit targets (like 30) and huge SLs (like 130-150). Such SLs are very seldomly hit - if you open a position at the right time. So, I think this question of stop losses a strictly specific and empirical one...
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #106
  • Feb 2, 2007 4:36pm Feb 2, 2007 4:36pm
thats what I ment is thoughts based on facts. Thankd for the in put
appreciate it
Quoting ilanr
IMHO, it's not a matter of thoughts, but of backtesting and optimization. I use mostly range breakouts at London and NY opens, and I've found that SLs of 50-65 are usually the best for these trades. But now I've finished back-testing and start forward-testing a completely crazy system of London morning breakouts with tiny profit targets (like 30) and huge SLs (like 130-150). Such SLs are very seldomly hit - if you open a position at the right time. So, I think this question of stop losses a strictly specific and empirical one...
  • #107
  • Feb 3, 2007 1:03pm Feb 3, 2007 1:03pm
Weekly Comparisons Between 2006 and 2007


2006 12/31/2006 Weekly Range 467 Pips
2007 01/07/2007 Weekly Range 342 Pips
2007 01/14/2007 Weekly Range 207 Pips
2007 01/21/2007 Weekly Range 358 Pips
2007 01/28/2007 Weekly Range 266 Pips

2007 Pip Total 1640 Pips

2007 Weekly Average Range (WAR) 328 Pips


2006 01/01/2006 Weekly Range 536 Pips
2006 01/08/2006 Weekly Range 259 Pips
2006 01/15/2006 Weekly Range 269 Pips
2006 01/22/2006 Weekly Range 266 Pips
2006 01/29/2006 Weekly Range 265 Pips

2006 Pip Total 1596 Pips

2006 Weekly Average Range (WAR) 318 Pips
  • #108
  • Feb 4, 2007 2:35pm Feb 4, 2007 2:35pm
Chart
  • #109
  • Feb 6, 2007 8:33pm Feb 6, 2007 8:33pm
The GbpUsd is moving in a very similar high and low weekly range this year compared to last



Weekly Comparisons Between 2006 and 2007


2006 12/31/2006 Weekly Range 467 Pips
2007 01/07/2007 Weekly Range 342 Pips
2007 01/14/2007 Weekly Range 207 Pips
2007 01/21/2007 Weekly Range 358 Pips
2007 01/28/2007 Weekly Range 266 Pips

2007 Pip Total 1640 Pips

2007 Weekly Average Range (WAR) 328 Pips


2006 01/01/2006 Weekly Range 536 Pips
2006 01/08/2006 Weekly Range 259 Pips
2006 01/15/2006 Weekly Range 269 Pips
2006 01/22/2006 Weekly Range 266 Pips
2006 01/29/2006 Weekly Range 265 Pips

2006 Pip Total 1596 Pips

2006 Weekly Average Range (WAR) 318 Pips
  • #110
  • Feb 6, 2007 9:14pm Feb 6, 2007 9:14pm
fe


Weekly Average Range (WAR) 2006 Is 318



2006 February Weekly Range

2006 02/05/2006 Weekly Range 267 Pips
2006 02/12/2006 Weekly Range 207 Pips
2006 02/19/ 2006 Weekly Range 179 Pips
2006 02/26/2006 Weekly Range 219 Pips
February of last year seem to be a low range of trading where March had a much higher range of trading. So far both days this week the daily range has been 132 pips and the weekly range has been a low 9535 and a high of 9720 for a range of 185 pips so far. The 4hr Chart below shows 9748 as a key point of resistance.

2006 February Weekly Average Range(WAR) 234



2006 March Weekly Range


2006 03/05/2006 Weekly Range 394 Pips
2006 03/12/2006 Weekly Range 362 Pips
2006 03/19/2006 Weekly Range 276 Pips
2006 03/26/ 2006 Weekly Range 221 Pips

2006 March Weekly Average Range (WAR) 313 Pips
Attached Image
  • #111
  • Feb 6, 2007 9:44pm Feb 6, 2007 9:44pm
Below is the Weekly Average Range(WAR) for the month of February in the last 10 years.

2006 February Average 218 Yearly Average 2006 317
2005 February Average 264 Yearly Average 2005 311
2004 February Average 527 Yearly Average 2004 408
2003 February Average 276 Yearly Average 2003 300
2002 February Average 191 Yearly Average 2002 232
2001 February Average 309 Yearly Average 2001 271
2000 February Average 329 Yearly Average 2000 318
1999 February Average 253 Yearly Average 1999 264
1998 February Average 255 Yearly Average 1998 306
1997 February Average 336 Yearly Average 1997 311

6 out of last 10 years February has been lower then the yearly average
and 4 out of the last 5 years February has been lower then the yearly average
  • #112
  • Feb 10, 2007 11:53am Feb 10, 2007 11:53am
GBPUSD Weekly Range Average (WAR) for the year
Attached Image
  • #113
  • Feb 10, 2007 11:55am Feb 10, 2007 11:55am
Updated weekly average range (WAR) 2007
Attached Image
  • #114
  • Feb 13, 2007 6:49am Feb 13, 2007 6:49am
I know a lot of traders spend a lot of time trading cable. Here is the question When will UK Join EU? which would put an end to Cable I am assuming, correct?
L-Train
  • #115
  • Feb 13, 2007 2:09pm Feb 13, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting ltrain
I know a lot of traders spend a lot of time trading cable. Here is the question When will UK Join EU? which would put an end to Cable I am assuming, correct?
in about 500 years
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #116
  • Feb 13, 2007 3:24pm Feb 13, 2007 3:24pm
goodthings.

is there any connection between london open 1st hour and the direction to rest of the day??

thx
  • #117
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:31pm Feb 13, 2007 4:31pm
oooooooooohh I know what his answer will be to that !!!!
  • #118
  • Feb 13, 2007 6:00pm Feb 13, 2007 6:00pm
Also look up the Big Ben stategy
  • #119
  • Edited 6:19am Feb 14, 2007 6:04am | Edited 6:19am
great

where can i find some more info on that ???????

thx
  • #120
  • Feb 14, 2007 6:35am Feb 14, 2007 6:35am
You can look up Big Ben on google...
Also, if you send me your e mail address, I think I have a PDF of the whole thing !!!
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