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  • #261
  • Jun 2, 2008 5:40am Jun 2, 2008 5:40am
Not confused at all here. However, you trading plan posted on Friday contained more information than the one this morning - and was perhaps more useful!

No need to (re) explain your methodology everytime. Plenty of information in your many threads about how you establish the trading zones.

Keep up the good work! Very helpful.
best, IST
  • #262
  • Jun 2, 2008 5:46am Jun 2, 2008 5:46am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Is this type of commentary clear to you? Does it confuse you? I was sensing that traders here could not get a good handle on it.

I wish everyone would give me some feedback.
DRT,

As a matter of fact, the longer term is better for me.
Like positions from open to close last at least 3-5 days, is better than day trade.
So that, we don't have many chances to be confused by the market, especially when the profit ranged so narrow.


Trader8686
  • #263
  • Jun 2, 2008 5:47am Jun 2, 2008 5:47am
i agree with 1st, the post you had on friday works for me.

maybe you could post your charts as well, like you have in the past, that visual along with your analysis make sit easier for me to understand.

thanks for all the help, keep it up.
  • #264
  • Jun 2, 2008 6:07am Jun 2, 2008 6:07am
DRT,

Post like last Friday (05.30.2008) I can live with it, too.

However, you will need to do it everyday, seems like a lot of work for you to do.
That's why I suggest for a longer term like a post good for 3-5 days length.
Plus, I used to trade that way on your site, did it good.
It's all up to you!



Trader8686
  • #265
  • Edited 6:34am Jun 2, 2008 6:12am | Edited 6:34am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I see no changes for the NA session. I will say that the way to handle this is to watch your balance levels and if we are moving through then be flexible and reverse your plans and targets.

Do not act to quickly!!!!!!!!!! Especially if it happens after the data. News rarely rules the demand supply and if it does it is only for a short time. Good luck today.

Trading Plan for the North American Session 5.30.2008

General

Currently, of the 4 majors only 1 is in reversal mode and that is cable. The USDJPY came within a few ticks of balancing yesterday but did not so technically it still needs to move down a bit. Both the Euro and the Swiss Franc still have unfinished business. While this is not a reliable indicator, it does lead me to believe we may continue to see some limited dollar strength into the end of the month.



EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5611

Balance 1.5548

Short Target and Reverse 1.5432


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push to balance at 5548. Target 1.5432. Reverse to longs at this level.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and go long to 5611. Reverse to shorts at this level.


USDJPY

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 105.90

Balance 105.25

Short Target and Reverse 104.85


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to at 105.25. Target 105.90. Reverse to short at this level.

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set shorts to 104.85. Reverse back to long at this level.


GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Balanced

Long Target and Reverse 1.9825

Balance 1.9745

Short Target and Reverse 1.9673


BIAS – Stay long above 9745. If price moves below 9745 area then cover. I would not short this pair but aggressive traders can use the 9745 area as a pivot.

If price moves down look to position long at 9673.


USDCHF

Distribution Classification = UnBalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 1.0554

Balance 1.0459

Short Target and Reverse 1.0419

Bias – Look to set up long on a push down to balance at 1.0459 or before. Target 1.0554 and set up shorts at this level.

If we trade down through balance, exit and look to re-set longs at 1.0419.
DRT,

May I ask you: For this post, usually these levels are good for how long?

Trader8686
======================================================
I have a good suggestion:

Since people still like to stick with this post (5.30.2008) , maybe you just need to do update for any pair that has change levels.
For exmple GBPUSD, if already changed levels, then you may post something like:

Subject: Update on GBPUSD

GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Balanced

Long Target and Reverse 1.xxxx

Balance 1.xxxx

Short Target and Reverse 1.xxxx


BIAS – Stay long above xxxx. If price moves below xxxx area then cover. I would not short this pair but aggressive traders can use the xxxx area as a pivot.

Just a thought to help! :-) Hope this is a helpful tip.
  • #266
  • Edited 7:01am Jun 2, 2008 6:36am | Edited 7:01am
Here are some thoughts and a direction I may head...as far as the trading style. I will make more comments in the analysis in future posts. Don't confuse this with what I have posted in the last few sessions....however these levels are derived through the same methodology I use. I think it "may" suit better. Just keep an eye on it. I will design a Trade Plan sheet for it that you can print out or save to your computer

The "catch" to trading this effectively is for you to understand that with each passing day new levels develop based on current price action. So a new level may appear that could change the plan or cause you to close or reverse a current position. These will only change once per day. I will post the changes around noon or so each day and add some commentary.

I will follow only the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD

Long Target Level - 1.5627

Level Near - 1.5538

Short Target Level - 1.5368


Watch for price to work back to 1.5538. If we move above, set longs and target 1.5627. If the 1.5538 level holds, then set up shorts to the short target.


GBPUSD

Long Target Level - 1.9760

Level Near - 1.9640

Short Target - 1.9486

Look for cable to test this 1.9640 level. If it moves back above, set longs to 1.9760. If the 1.9640 level holds price today, then stay short to 1.9486

USDJPY

Long Target Level - 105.55

Level Near - 104.74

Short Target Level - 103.46

If the U/J holds below the 104.75 level, set shorts and target 103.46. If it moves back above the 104.74 level, set longs to 105.55.

I will post an update later today to give you some levels for staying in the directional trend or where to move your stops.
  • #267
  • Jun 2, 2008 6:40am Jun 2, 2008 6:40am
As with my thoughts in the past, many time price will surge into these levels and reverse because there is heavy positioning flow on the other side. Watch this and be willing to remain flexible. You may want to wait for price to move through a level and then set up on a pullback near the level.
  • #268
  • Jun 2, 2008 6:42am Jun 2, 2008 6:42am


Quoting DownRiverTrader
Here are some thoughts and a direction I may head...as far as the trading style. I will make more comments in the analysis in future posts. Don't confuse this with what I have posted in the last few sessions....however these levels are derived through the same methodology I use. I think it "may" suit better. Just keep an eye on it. I will design a Trade Plan sheet for it that you can print out or save to your computer

The "catch" to trading this effectively is for you to understand that with each passing day new levels develop based on current price action. So a new level may appear that could change the plan or cause you to close or reverse a current position. These will only change once per day. I will post the changes around noon or so each day and add some commentary.

I will follow only the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD

Long Target Level - 1.5627

Level Near - 1.5538

Short Target Level - 1.5368


Watch for price to work back to 1.5538. If we move above, set longs and target 1.5627. If this price holds, then set up shorts to the short target.


GBPUSD

Long Target Level - 1.9760

Level Near - 1.9640

Short Target - 1.9486

Look for cable to test this 1.9640 level. If it moves back above, set longs to 1.9760. If this level holds price today, then stay short to 1.9486

USDJPY

Long Target Level - 105.55

Level Near - 104.74

Short Target Level - 103.46

If the U/J holds below the 104.75 level, set shorts and target 103.46. If it moves back above this level, set longs to 105.55.

I will post an update later today to give you some levels for staying in the directional trend or where to move your stops.
There is no bad decisions, its only didn't work out.
  • #269
  • Jun 2, 2008 7:11am Jun 2, 2008 7:11am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Here are some thoughts and a direction I may head...as far as the trading style. I will make more comments in the analysis in future posts. Don't confuse this with what I have posted in the last few sessions....however these levels are derived through the same methodology I use. I think it "may" suit better. Just keep an eye on it. I will design a Trade Plan sheet for it that you can print out or save to your computer

The "catch" to trading this effectively is for you to understand that with each passing day new levels develop based on current price action. So a new level may appear that could change the plan or cause you to close or reverse a current position. These will only change once per day. I will post the changes around noon or so each day and add some commentary.

I will follow only the EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY.

EURUSD

Long Target Level - 1.5627

Level Near - 1.5538

Short Target Level - 1.5368


Watch for price to work back to 1.5538. If we move above, set longs and target 1.5627. If the 1.5538 level holds, then set up shorts to the short target.


GBPUSD

Long Target Level - 1.9760

Level Near - 1.9640

Short Target - 1.9486

Look for cable to test this 1.9640 level. If it moves back above, set longs to 1.9760. If the 1.9640 level holds price today, then stay short to 1.9486

USDJPY

Long Target Level - 105.55

Level Near - 104.74

Short Target Level - 103.46

If the U/J holds below the 104.75 level, set shorts and target 103.46. If it moves back above the 104.74 level, set longs to 105.55.

I will post an update later today to give you some levels for staying in the directional trend or where to move your stops.

The U/J and G/U are testing the near levels now. I suspect we will also see the E/U move up and test. Be ready to set up.
  • #270
  • Jun 2, 2008 7:21am Jun 2, 2008 7:21am
Excellent analysis DRT http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #271
  • Jun 2, 2008 8:06am Jun 2, 2008 8:06am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
The U/J and G/U are testing the near levels now. I suspect we will also see the E/U move up and test. Be ready to set up.

As of this post the E/U is now testing the positioning level.

You should be short the U/J and Long the G/U now.
  • #272
  • Jun 2, 2008 8:09am Jun 2, 2008 8:09am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
As of this post the E/U is now testing the positioning level.

You should be short the U/J and Long the G/U now.
Glad I am right with long on G/U. But probably got in a bit late at 1.9650. How far will it be up to?
Expected the unexpected
  • #273
  • Jun 2, 2008 8:29am Jun 2, 2008 8:29am
on the level you have listed for any pair, what time frame would be a good one to look at with regards to taking a position??? jpy did get above the 104.74 level by a few pips, then went back down. how long does it have to saty above the level to decide whether to go long??
  • #274
  • Edited 2:37pm Jun 2, 2008 9:45am | Edited 2:37pm
PLEASE READ THIS AND ABSORB IT

I am going to work you through how I trade this method as time passes so please be patient with me. This method has its core in the same price distribution study that I have always discussed, however I think it will suit traders here better.

The core of the method has its root in study volume and value in the currency futures market. Since volume in the both the spot and futures market dwindles in Asia and the afternoon of the North American session I discount this very heavily. I use certain thresholds for determining supply and demand. So to a large degree, you have to ignore what happens in these low volume sessions. Of course there are times when the market moves greatly in these sessions like when the FOMC makes an announcement at 2:15 PM or the avian flu epidemic hits, etc. So you need to be aware and monitor to some degree, but you should not react unless it is an extreme move in these sessions. Frequently, price will return to value levels set in the high volume sessions of Europe and early North America.

This system is very easy to understand where and how to enter. If you haven’t already figured it out, the difficult part and the part that puts the money in your pocket is trade management. I want to give you an idea of how I handle this system, but you can certainly tailor the levels to meet your own needs and style. If you follow me on this, you will see that they are very powerful supply and demand levels.

Generally, by about noon and certainly by 3:00 PM in the NA session, my threshold levels for decision making are reached so I will generally get my new information out early in the afternoon. Almost every day the Positioning Level (Near Level) in the recent post will fluctuate. What I do is use this new level as a gauge for what to do the next day.

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT – You should “expect” price to return to these positioning levels in the European or NA session the following day. Of course, this does not always happen and when it does not happen this is a sign of extreme supply and demand at the positioning level. This level is likely to drive directional flow for the next several sessions. If price runs up/down substantially in the afternoon in the US, I will frequently take the profit and wait to reposition at the new level the next day in the direction of your intended target. I am not saying you have to do it this way. There will be times when price will never give you a better entry so how you do it is up to you. What you should do is use the new positioning level as a guide for risk though and monitor it very carefully. Hopefully, you will get a feel for this as you watch this method. It really depends on your style and acceptable risk. I would like to point out that if a TARGET level is hit during the off sessions I will almost always take the money. I will leave orders in while I get some sleep for this.

For instance, today most of the positions are working in our favor, so if cable closes up strongly after being down so much today, I will likely take profit and look to reset in the European session tomorrow. Hopefully, you will get a feel for this as time goes on.

So with that said, here are tomorrow’s levels. They are only valid beginning at 3:00 AM in the European Session for me. Also, I will introduce additional levels beyond the current one’s as you get the hang of this.

EURUSD – Current Position LONG

Long Target – 1.5627

Positioning Level – 1.5526

Short Target – 1.5368

Traders should have set longs today on the move above 1.5538. If you are long stay long and use the new positioning level of 1.5526 to manage your long position.

If price moves below 1.5526 beginning in the European session, then exit your current long position and look to set shorts and target 1.5368.

http://www.askdrt.org/storage/ask-dr...206.3.2008.jpg


GBPUSD – Current Position Long

Long Target – 1.9820

Positioning Level – 1.9635

Short Target – 1.5368

Traders should have set longs today on the move above 1.9640. If you are long stay long and use the new positioning level of 1.9635 to manage your long position.

If price moves below 1.9635 beginning in the European session, then look to exit your current long position and set shorts and target 1.9486.

http://www.askdrt.org/storage/ask-dr...206.3.2008.jpg



USDJPY – Current Position Short

Long Target – 105.55

Positioning Level – 104.54

Short Target – 103.46

Traders should have set shorts today on the move below 104.74. If you are short stay short and use the new positioning level of 104.54 to manage your short position.

If price moves below 104.54 beginning in the European session, then look to exit your current short position and set shorts and target 103.46.

http://www.askdrt.org/storage/ask-dr...206.3.2008.jpg
  • #275
  • Jun 2, 2008 10:01am Jun 2, 2008 10:01am
Quoting mtrmth
on the level you have listed for any pair, what time frame would be a good one to look at with regards to taking a position??? jpy did get above the 104.74 level by a few pips, then went back down. how long does it have to saty above the level to decide whether to go long??

This is really your decision not mine. What I would recommend is not looking at time but rather price. You should only be concerned with the price being reached not the time frame of your chart. I do not use charts with this method either. I ginned up these charts so it is clear what I am saying.

As far as your positioning entries, I watch tick by tick but in time and sales not charts. With that said, give the levels some time to develop. If they are really strong levels than price will work a level and you can use your instincts to enter.
  • #276
  • Jun 2, 2008 10:12am Jun 2, 2008 10:12am
ok, thanks drt, learn patience. do not try and get every pip, get the majority and i will make money and not lose it.

i think your target for the price of jpy for the short is the gpb price.
  • #277
  • Jun 2, 2008 10:31am Jun 2, 2008 10:31am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Is this type of commentary clear to you? Does it confuse you? I was sensing that traders here could not get a good handle on it.

I wish everyone would give me some feedback.
Hey drt good to here from ya, to me you sound good as ever.

I think when one reads through your past posts where you described your method, your principles the execution of the trade everything is much clearer and easier to understand.
I would suggest all who are trying to understand read up and we are then better able to understand and see the method through drts eyes.
After doing so myself I believe I have a chance of keeping up.
drt thanks for all your hard work now and in the past.
  • #278
  • Jun 2, 2008 2:37pm Jun 2, 2008 2:37pm
Quoting mtrmth
ok, thanks drt, learn patience. do not try and get every pip, get the majority and i will make money and not lose it.

i think your target for the price of jpy for the short is the gpb price.
Yes. Thanks I corrected it.
  • #279
  • Jun 2, 2008 2:38pm Jun 2, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting lilpip
Hey drt good to here from ya, to me you sound good as ever.

I think when one reads through your past posts where you described your method, your principles the execution of the trade everything is much clearer and easier to understand.
I would suggest all who are trying to understand read up and we are then better able to understand and see the method through drts eyes.
After doing so myself I believe I have a chance of keeping up.
drt thanks for all your hard work now and in the past.
Hope things are going well for you.
  • #280
  • Jun 2, 2008 2:56pm Jun 2, 2008 2:56pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
i was about to ask if you could run a serperate thread for your system, but thought i better check the first post again - thanks for the update and for the other threads.

Always nice to see traders share there methods and success.

regards

MPP
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