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  • #141
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:11am Jun 1, 2008 5:11am
How you doing all ?

I think I might be able to share a bit of insight to the whole correlation thing for you, Scorpion.
Gold, like the Swiss Franc is a safe haven in times of turmoil of the U.S Dollar.
So generally, if you have a weaker dollar, you have stronger gold prices and vice versa.

Take a look at the 4hr charts attached for Gold & USDJPY for the last few weeks. Whilst the correlation is not perfectly opposite, we can clearly see Gold falling and therefore, Dollar rising. Over the lat month or so look how the USD is shaped like a 'W', whilst gold is an 'M'.
Without looking it's probably not too far off the mark for me to say that a 4hr USDCHF chart would also be very similar to that of USDJPY.

So, what valuable information can we squeeze from this ??

Gold falling, look to short either EURUSD or GBPUSD and/or look for possible long positions of USDJPY & USDCHF.

Personally I like to take on all 4, which would spread my risk.
Bad news from UK will help my cable position but good news from Euroland will hinder slightly my Euro position.

So to summarize.
1) Identify Gold strength or weakness
2) Look to trade the Majors accordingly

Dan is a whizz at this sort of thing and has taught me a lot about it. I'm sure he'll tell you a lot more than I can, including the relationships between all other pairs.
He should also be awarding me some gold stars I hope.

Drop him a line and get into his Trade Room where he goes into detail about this sort of thing each morning. It's very good and by far the best room I've ever been in.

Happy Dayz are here again..............
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  • #142
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:20am Jun 1, 2008 5:20am
Hi FXPimp,

Thanks for that, you posted just as I was writing this message.

Reading through your posts you seem to have integrated Dans common sense way of looking at the markets really quickly into your strategies.

Quick couple of questions if I may.

Do you ever move down to the 5m chart for exits or just concentrate on the 15m 84 cci going back through 100.

With oil as it is a wild ride sometimes do you think it is a candidate for a move down the timeframes, i.e. using the 15m,5m and 1m in the same way as you use the daily,60 and 15 on everything else.

Look to be some great pips to be made using the same techniques.

any thoughts on this.

have emailed Dan for info about the room.
  • #143
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:51am Jun 1, 2008 5:51am
FX Pimp: can you post your chart template with indicators? Thanks in advance.
  • #144
  • Jun 1, 2008 8:15am Jun 1, 2008 8:15am
Sorry guys.

I've just spend 45mins writing a reply to all your questions, and have lost the lot somehow.

I want to break something now so will have to shut-down and go enjoy my sister's cuisine...........NOT !!

Will catch-up with you tomorrow.

Get away from the 1m charts !!
  • #145
  • Jun 1, 2008 8:38am Jun 1, 2008 8:38am
Quoting Dan007
Hi Rockdrive

Glad you have joined the team...Lots of fun to be had and lots of ideas to be shared...

There is no presssure to trade so learn as much as possible and the pips will start rolling.

Take it easy in the 1st week and control the risk..

Had too much Rioja last night and head is feeling it today...33 and past it!!!

What happened to the good old days.

Da007
My God - Your just a baby! Loking forward to the trading this week. I will be making sure a) the charts are set up properly and b) I control my entry based on the proper interpretation of whats in front on me and not using my 'gut'. Thanks for help todate. Here's to cheeky pips! J
  • #146
  • Edited 9:56am Jun 1, 2008 9:24am | Edited 9:56am
Quoting FX Pimp
How you doing all ?

I think I might be able to share a bit of insight to the whole correlation thing for you, Scorpion.
Gold, like the Swiss Franc is a safe haven in times of turmoil of the U.S Dollar.
So generally, if you have a weaker dollar, you have stronger gold prices and vice versa.

Take a look at the 4hr charts attached for Gold & USDJPY for the last few weeks. Whilst the correlation is not perfectly opposite, we can clearly see Gold falling and therefore, Dollar rising. Over the lat month or so look how the USD is shaped like a 'W', whilst gold is an 'M'.
Without looking it's probably not too far off the mark for me to say that a 4hr USDCHF chart would also be very similar to that of USDJPY.

So, what valuable information can we squeeze from this ??

Gold falling, look to short either EURUSD or GBPUSD and/or look for possible long positions of USDJPY & USDCHF.

Personally I like to take on all 4, which would spread my risk.
Bad news from UK will help my cable position but good news from Euroland will hinder slightly my Euro position.

So to summarize.
1) Identify Gold strength or weakness
2) Look to trade the Majors accordingly

Dan is a whizz at this sort of thing and has taught me a lot about it. I'm sure he'll tell you a lot more than I can, including the relationships between all other pairs.
He should also be awarding me some gold stars I hope.

Drop him a line and get into his Trade Room where he goes into detail about this sort of thing each morning. It's very good and by far the best room I've ever been in.

Happy Dayz are here again..............

Very Good Thread with very knowledgeable posters here. I discovered it this morning.

I just wanted to add my 2 cents on the correlation issue only as it relates to the main currency that I trade with real funds. That currency pair is USD/JPY

It is highly correlated to the level of the Dow on a daily basis. I have been more than succesful trading this pair for close to a year now as the Yen carry trade unwinds.

I always look at the Dow futures when the North American markets are closed. Of course as Oil affects the price of Gold and that has other effects every factor is related to each other. Last week when the 2 Year and 10 Year USA Treasuries had their yields rise substantially as the bonds were sold of as Oil was dropping and Gold was dropping and the US Dollars from these sales were flowing mainly into pure CASH thus driving UP the US Dollar and all the other currencies dropped including EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

If you can anticipate or be comfortable in the direction of the Dow, you have a BIG edge trading USD/JPY

Of course News such as next weeks ISM, ADP and NFP will change perceptions one more time if over or under Consensus. It should be a very interesting week coming up.

Good Trading All !!!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0530.html

Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #147
  • Jun 1, 2008 11:29am Jun 1, 2008 11:29am
Hi all

Thought i would pop in and see what is going on...

Very hot out here but had a good day by the pool.

Will answer a few points tom when i am back in the office. Very much looking forward to it and have a good feeling about the volatility for next week.

Want to get off to a flyer on Monday and Tuesday and push on for the middle of the week. Started last week with a wrong position on GBPCHF which annoyed me looking back but i wont be doing the same this week.

Cheers
Dan007
  • #148
  • Jun 1, 2008 1:19pm Jun 1, 2008 1:19pm
Hi Warren,

Good to see you on here.

Nice to broaden my horizons, for I also like to trade USDJPY. Going short today are we ??? Looks a bit toppy up there right now doesn't it; What with that and crude and gold looking to retrace a bit over the next few hours there might be a 'cheeky' play to the south side.

I've never really been following the treasuries etc. but the Dow I follow as I trade the FTSE and DAX quite a bit.

I was always of the understanding that with Crude & Gold dropping then the Dow & Dollar (suffix) related pairs would also be following suit.

Are you suggesting it's the Dow futures we should be using as a guide to Gold / Dollar prices ? I've always seen it the other way.

As for your questions Scorpion, I don't really use 5m & 1m charts. I like to relax and quite like my hair the colour it is.
Besides, I feel like a begger, squeezing those extra 20-30 pips out of trades.
Sometimes I think "if only I could cover the spread and be immediately in profit" blah blah blah, but I was forever over using the 1m with this theory and now just use a faster CCI in conjunction with price action.
If I have everything in place on a 4hr/1hr/15m Euro chart with Gold retreating and price action going 1.5585, .84, .83, .82, .79, .75 and so on I know this is going. Perfect timing on just a low time frame will often catch you out I feel.
Who cares about 10 pips when you're aiming for 200 ??

About my template. You can find all the settings for the indicators on this thread. It's a bit of a beast to set it all up, and with all due respect I have been here 1000 times before already. Even with the correct template, it's a nightmare. Get into Dan's club and him & his boys will supply it all for you and show you exactly how to set it up and put it to good use.
Am I right Rockdrive ???
  • #149
  • Jun 1, 2008 3:18pm Jun 1, 2008 3:18pm
Quoting FX Pimp
Hi Warren,

Good to see you on here.

Nice to broaden my horizons, for I also like to trade USDJPY. Going short today are we ??? Looks a bit toppy up there right now doesn't it; What with that and crude and gold looking to retrace a bit over the next few hours there might be a 'cheeky' play to the south side.

I've never really been following the treasuries etc. but the Dow I follow as I trade the FTSE and DAX quite a bit.

I was always of the understanding that with Crude & Gold dropping then the Dow & Dollar (suffix) related pairs would also be following suit.

Are you suggesting it's the Dow futures we should be using as a guide to Gold / Dollar prices ? I've always seen it the other way.

As for your questions Scorpion, I don't really use 5m & 1m charts. I like to relax and quite like my hair the colour it is.
Besides, I feel like a begger, squeezing those extra 20-30 pips out of trades.
Sometimes I think "if only I could cover the spread and be immediately in profit" blah blah blah, but I was forever over using the 1m with this theory and now just use a faster CCI in conjunction with price action.
If I have everything in place on a 4hr/1hr/15m Euro chart with Gold retreating and price action going 1.5585, .84, .83, .82, .79, .75 and so on I know this is going. Perfect timing on just a low time frame will often catch you out I feel.
Who cares about 10 pips when you're aiming for 200 ??

About my template. You can find all the settings for the indicators on this thread. It's a bit of a beast to set it all up, and with all due respect I have been here 1000 times before already. Even with the correct template, it's a nightmare. Get into Dan's club and him & his boys will supply it all for you and show you exactly how to set it up and put it to good use.
Am I right Rockdrive ???

Trading USD/JPY as I do the main correlator for me is always the direction of the Dow. As for Oil if it runs up much higher than it is at the moment it has to be negative for profits and the Dow. However I would not say it is in correlation at all times as the Dow has a mind of it's own and there is INTERVENTION often just like there is a form of INTERVENTION against Gold going up.

The REAL Resistance for the USD/JPY pair at the moment is 106.00 and 106.25

The Ideal short is the closer it gets to 105.75 or 105.95 which it tried to do on Friday. There is very important US Data coming out that will affect things.
ISM, ADP and NFP not to ignore 4 Central Banks this week with Rate Decisions. That includes on Thursday BOE and ECB both probably on hold though BOE might surprise because of their own Housing Mess !!!

Here is what we have to look forward to...

06:05 Big Week Ahead For US Economic Data Sydney, June 01: Last week"s US data was mixed to better than expected. The US Durable Goods and US GDP both surprised to the upside and led the markets to believe that while the US economy isnn"t in great shape, it isn"t falling off a cliff either. The markets are fully pricing in a Fed rate hike by the end of the year and possibly as early as the October 29 FOMC. This is based on the belief that the US economy is strong enough to support the Fed"s inflation fighting efforts without fear of sending the US economy into a tailspin.
The behavior of oil prices will play a part in market sentiment, but the coming week also presents some key data events that should shape Fed expectations and help the market decide whether or not the US dollar can maintain upward momentum after rising 1.25% last week. US ISM is the main event on Monday and it is once again expected to be well below 50, indicating that the manufacturing sector is in recession. The median expectation is for a small drop from last month"s 48.6 to 48.5. If it comes in above the 50 level as some expect, Fed expectations would become even more hawkish and the USD would move higher. Other data events include Construction Spending (Monday), Factory Orders and Car sales will be released on Tuesday followed by ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday. The major US data event next week will be US non-farm payrolls on Friday and expectations vary widely. The median is for minus 60 K with the range at minus 10 to minus 150 K. [email protected]


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #150
  • Jun 2, 2008 12:23am Jun 2, 2008 12:23am
Hi all

Have a great week...

Lets maximise those pips.

Dan007
  • #151
  • Jun 2, 2008 4:49am Jun 2, 2008 4:49am
Hi Dan,

A great live room this morning with good technical analysis. great pips made on cable and EURJPY. Although euro dollar did not do what was expected I made good pips on the FTSE and DOW,all based on the good analysis in the room.

Thanks
Paul
  • #152
  • Jun 2, 2008 5:27am Jun 2, 2008 5:27am
Hi Paul

Well done today in EURJPY...Yes EURUSD annoyed me and dont mind taking a small hit on that.

Crude banked just off 50 pips with a break through the 127.00 level...

I didnt take USDJPY as i took EURJPY but that currency fell from 105.25 for a solid 50 pips for a few of the guys.

EURJPY was a great play on the break down from 163.65, with a 1st target at the 200ma and the next half taken at the daily 20ma at 162.80..Overall 80 pips in 2 closing trades. That made up for the loss on EURUSD of 21 pips.

Many of the team also took GBPUSD which was great to see... They waited for the break and the 123 retracment and got in on the break of the 1.9790 for a move lower to 1.9600 with indiciduals taking profit on the way down.

GBPJPY and GBPCHf was a great play even though we are not focusing on these 2..We want to build the group 1st before we move onto these as they can be aggressive.. Chris and a few others took them both and made a lot of pips which is great to see... Look how the GBPJPY was perfectly setup for a fall from the 20 and 50ma... Thats a move from 207.80 down to target of 200ma at 206.00..

GBPCHF broke 2.0565 for a move to 200ma at 2.0450...

Lots of pips to be made and the important aspect of the group is that we are moving forward well and making money...Vvvvvvvv positive and a great team is building.

Enjoy
Dan007
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  • #153
  • Jun 2, 2008 5:37am Jun 2, 2008 5:37am
Well what can is say...

I have just been informed that our Top Trader of the day, who only joined our team last week made 710 pips today...Now that is good.

Cable 115...EURUSD 50...EURJPY 85... GBPJPY 240.... GBPCHF 160

This strategy works guys

Excellent..That makes me very happy.

This team is going to grow and make serious pips over the weeks, months and years ahead...Very exciting

Dan007
  • #154
  • Jun 2, 2008 5:39am Jun 2, 2008 5:39am
Quoting Dan007
Hi Paul

Well done today in EURJPY...Yes EURUSD annoyed me and dont mind taking a small hit on that.

Crude banked just off 50 pips with a break through the 127.00 level...

I didnt take USDJPY as i took EURJPY but that currency fell from 105.25 for a solid 50 pips for a few of the guys.

EURJPY was a great play on the break down from 163.65, with a 1st target at the 200ma and the next half taken at the daily 20ma at 162.80..Overall 80 pips in 2 closing trades. That made up for the loss on EURUSD of 21 pips.

Many of the team also took GBPUSD which was great to see... They waited for the break and the 123 retracment and got in on the break of the 1.9790 for a move lower to 1.9600 with indiciduals taking profit on the way down.

GBPJPY and GBPCHf was a great play even though we are not focusing on these 2..We want to build the group 1st before we move onto these as they can be aggressive.. Chris and a few others took them both and made a lot of pips which is great to see... Look how the GBPJPY was perfectly setup for a fall from the 20 and 50ma... Thats a move from 207.80 down to target of 200ma at 206.00..

GBPCHF broke 2.0565 for a move to 200ma at 2.0450...

Lots of pips to be made and the important aspect of the group is that we are moving forward well and making money...Vvvvvvvv positive and a great team is building.

Enjoy
Dan007
Hi Dan,
Great session this morning - e/j +28, e/u -11, g/j +24 (but messed up on 84 / 21 cc1, and Gold -19. Missed out on cable but plenty of pips for another day. Will focus my learning on CCI. Thanks
  • #155
  • Jun 2, 2008 5:52am Jun 2, 2008 5:52am
Hey All. i am both happy and slightly cheesed off today! i took a look at GBPCHF as well as GBPJPY this morning but because i hadnt been able to finish joining the live room session i decided to hold off as i wanted to concentrate on looking at things with the benefit of the live room behind me. suffice to say i'm kicking myself for not taking both trades but equally happy that it only confirms the merits of the methods used here. An extract from an earlier post by dan states;..................There are 3 stages in a move... 1) The drive away from the 200ma..Use the 20 and 50ma as a support or resistance.2) The pullback and break of 20ma and 50ma..This is what we call thE Box strategy when the candles are boxed between the 200ma and the 50ma... Be careful here as u never truely know the exact support and resistance levels... However the 50% retracement rule is key here and calculate this before every trade... Look at the GBPJPY chart below... The 1st higher low before the break of the 20ma was key and then the break of the 50ma for a 50% move, then a retacement for a 123 setup and a bounce off the 50ma for a pullback to the 200ma....3) At the point of return to the 200ma is key..This is the resting point and you need to wait for a clear move for the direction... The 21CCI is key here and on every time frame the 21 CCI shows me the trend..........................The 200ma was bang on despite my disbelief it would reach it as the price was so far away from it. Cant wait to get into the live room!!!!!!!!!
  • #156
  • Jun 2, 2008 6:38am Jun 2, 2008 6:38am
Hi Rocwell

Great analysis and respect for studying the strategy this well...The pips will come very soon, so be patient!!!

Dont worry i kick myself all the time for not taking trades but that is trading... There are so many opportunities out there and we as a group we will do our best to spot these for u...

Look forward to speaking with you soon

Dan007
  • #157
  • Jun 2, 2008 9:39am Jun 2, 2008 9:39am
Hi all

Well after losing a few pips on EURUSD this am, i managed to take them back again this avo...

Cheeky little short with the 85 CCI breaking down from 1.5525 down to just below the figure, so up small in EUR for the day..

Otherwise took USDJPY short as well this avo, after the retracement back towards the 60min 20ma...Short at 85 for a cheeky few pips down... Nothing flash but simple and effective. CCI wasnt perfect but though the 21 CCI had retraced back enough to the 0.00 line.

See u tomorrow guys. Overall a pretty good day.

Dan007
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  • #158
  • Jun 2, 2008 9:59am Jun 2, 2008 9:59am
Dan & the gang.

How's it all going ??

Great morning in the room with the overall atmosphere. Hats most definately off to Chris for joining the 500 club on day ONE of the week. SEVEN HUNDRED PIPS !!
We have some catching-up to do double-o !!

Monkey Boy was in top form as per. Had to play a bit of a waiting game on the Dow but banked 80 something on that, then got out at the 12500. Not ideal but no one went skint banking some pips, hey?

Will end up doing a bit of kicking of myself too Rocwell if this goes to the planned 12400 but that's trading.
Feel confident with the rest of the team around me but not so when the doors to the room close.

Managed to get 82 DJI, 35 XDAX, 30 EURJPY and gave 9 back on EURUSD.
Bit annoyed for not taking GBPJPY & GBPCHF, but when we really start going into those two in great depth in the room there's going to be bags of opportunity.

Keep up the good work Dan and all the committee. You're all going to make us very rich indeed.
With all the trades you have covered in just 2 weeks there has been in excess of 5000 possible pips, even after the losers !
Just 50% of that and I'll be a happy bunny

See you in the morning
  • #159
  • Jun 2, 2008 10:04am Jun 2, 2008 10:04am
Hi FXPimp

How many emails can i get in one day!!! Monkey boy was a legend...

How simple is the Dow Trade!!! He made serious cash here...

Short at 600, banking 50% on 1st green HA, then doubled up after retracement for another 120 pips and still in...Look how 21 CCI gets u in perfectly...

What a monkey!!!

See u boys tom

Dan007
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  • #160
  • Jun 2, 2008 11:53am Jun 2, 2008 11:53am
Hi Dan & all,
Slightly frustrating morning - just couldn't work out which way the dollar was going.

Lost 6 pips on the eur/usd as it retraced - when it did look set to fall with the M/A's & cci's perfect - but hey that's trading.

Great trade on the GBP/USD short - I was a bit late to join as I was looking at the other charts with better set ups, but I was sure it would fall after it retraced - gained 44 pips (should have got in earlier though).

Then this afternoon I had a trend line drawn on the DJI 15 min chart & as it fell through with the cci's & M/A's looking perfect made 116 pips - so great day I had.

Looking for a good day with the dollar hopefully tomorrow as all the major currencies against the dollar have retraced - but will wait for the correct set ups tomorrow.

Good luck trading & cheers Dan & all.

Simon.
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