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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #86,581
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:25pm Jun 1, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting Que
I did an edit, and I believe it was by Tuesday.

I only remember this because my friend at work trades every gap and quotes this every fucking time. I have to say, he is doing well on gap trades, and I am Long for now...

i'm with you Que on the longs, looking to get out around 208.70 to 209.01, what about you?
  • #86,582
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:26pm Jun 1, 2008 5:26pm
Quoting Que
I did an edit, and I believe it was by Tuesday.

I only remember this because my friend at work trades every gap and quotes this every fucking time. I have to say, he is doing well on gap trades, and I am Long for now...
I wonder if it makes a difference how big the gap is. For example, the percentage of gaps under 50 pips, or over 100 pips.
  • #86,583
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:28pm Jun 1, 2008 5:28pm
Quoting forexnoob101
i'm with you Que on the longs, looking to get out around 208.70 to 209.01, what about you?
208.72

And I got in late as my broker had a 24 pip spread... I waited untill it got back to 9... Oh well...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 27 KB
Que
  • #86,584
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:29pm Jun 1, 2008 5:29pm
Attached Image
  • #86,585
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:30pm Jun 1, 2008 5:30pm
Quoting samuel84
I do not get what do you mean by tht? care to enlighten me?
Please see the chart, if the Bearish divergence plays out totally.
I would say this is quite a high probability trade ..but nothing is for sure ..
Attached Image
  • #86,586
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:31pm Jun 1, 2008 5:31pm
Quoting Clouds
I wonder if it makes a difference how big the gap is. For example, the percentage of gaps under 50 pips, or over 100 pips.
Very good question, and I do not know the answer. As I closed a free 3% on the open today, risking 2% on a high percentage gap trade does not sound bad to me. Again, my trade is based on a few factors... Mainly the free 3% I got on open.

I say free because it was honestly based on lilmoe hounding me about my 209.00 limit order. I said what the hell hes probably right, we have not broken 208.80 is the last 3 attempts. Then the market blessed the trade with a huge gap. Would have been more if I did not get screwed on the 24 pip spread my broker decided would be fair...
Que
  • #86,587
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:32pm Jun 1, 2008 5:32pm
Quoting Que
208.72

And I got in late as my broker had a 24 pip spread... I waited untill it got back to 9... Oh well...
im right with you, sounds like you have our good friends interbank FX (im looking to leave them soon and go with a different broker) i went long at 208.11, and prob just going to exit at 208.70, so don't feel too bad
  • #86,588
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:35pm Jun 1, 2008 5:35pm
Quoting forexnoob101
im right with you, sounds like you have our good friends interbank FX (im looking to leave them soon and go with a different broker) i went long at 208.11, and prob just going to exit at 208.70, so don't feel too bad


Yes IBFX is my broker lol
Que
  • #86,589
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:38pm Jun 1, 2008 5:38pm
207.90 seems to be a bit tough, but it'll crash soon

Attached Image
  • #86,590
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:40pm Jun 1, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting mktjong
Please see the chart, if the Bearish divergence plays out totally.
I would say this is quite a high probability trade ..but nothing is for sure ..
I agree MK, but technicals have been failing me of late. and I just can't bring myself to post a smilie face. Thumbs up.
  • #86,591
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:41pm Jun 1, 2008 5:41pm
Quoting samuel84
In my opinion i do think tht this pair is heading north still and not yet be ready to head lower..the reson is from the charts i attached last week which is the same as i attach now..at opening at 4pm EST i checked FxSol prices and it went down to a low of about 206.96 which is about the the line of the triangle, in other words testing the breakout line of the triangle and now its heading back up north.

I would only change my opinion only if the triangle is breached in a strong decisive way and not weakly..so we will see how it unfolds...

Not to say you are wrong ... but it seems that most do not seem to understand what is happening here

1) Friday move in 3 min of 50 pips = stop hunting . That was one large order. Where were most shorts stops ???? 209.20 of course.
2) The dj dropped 600 points in a week ... .that is MASSIVE , yet carry trades did not unwind = artificially being supported. I think the move over the last 2 weeks has been one big bull trap and judging from most on this forum it seems to be working very well.
3) The drop of 225 pips today is a warning shot across the bow .... that was a large drop.... someone wanting to get out of a position on the news out of UK and if smart money is leaving the house shouldn't we all ?
4) the bearish divergence on USDJPY daily , eurjpy 4 hour and gbpjpy 4 hour are massive.
4) Bradford and Bingly news is big and truly does reflect the fundamentals of the UK.
'Last year B&B made pretax profits before exceptionals of £336m. This year analysts had predicted a range between £160m and £200m. However, this is thought to be far too optimistic and profits will be lower.
The B&B profit warning comes at a bad time for the banking sector. HBOS, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, is about to launch its £4 billion rights issue, while Royal Bank of Scotland is in the closing stages of raising £12 billion.
For B&B, the admission of lower profits comes at a time when it is trying to raise £300m from shareholders. On Friday, its share price closed just 6¼p above the 82p-per-share price of the rights issue. In the past four weeks the price has fallen as concerns grow about the state of the bank’s finances. However, while its profits will be lower, this is not a repeat of the nationalisation of Northern Rock.'
5) BOE holding rates ....the US fed fund futures are factoring in a rate HIKE next time around.



I am bearish overall , but much prefer to swing trade the eurcad ( btw there is a 1000-2000pip trade setting up in this pair this week).




I hate to say this , but people in this forum who say they are fundamentalists seem to ignore the very obvious. When banks are trying to raise money by diluting their shares it means they are in SERIOUS trouble. It is that simple



We have not even started seeing write downs due to the credit derivative issues. There was one the other week from AIG .. the first one of many to come.



Analyists on cnbc etc saying .. do not worry credit crisis is over .... what else are they going to say ???? Feds do not want markets to crash. They are full of it.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #86,592
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:45pm Jun 1, 2008 5:45pm
Quoting lilmoe
207.90 seems to be a bit tough, but it'll crash soon

Attachment

now i think...
  • #86,593
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:48pm Jun 1, 2008 5:48pm
By my calculations, is what I see.
In 08' the gbp/jpy was 250, and went to 200.
So 09' 150
10' 100
11' 50
12' 1
hah
  • #86,594
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:48pm Jun 1, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting mktjong
Please see the chart, if the Bearish divergence plays out totally.
I would say this is quite a high probability trade ..but nothing is for sure ..
Icic..noticed anything about my charts?I nvr use any other indicators, only MA's( tht too is only for reference ). The reason for this is simple, all indicators like you used there are good no doubt, but to a certain extent they are lagging indicators.
I use a lot of trendlines to determine price behavior as it is a more leading rather than lagging in sense the next price movement will not affect a past pattern, wherelse for indicators, a current movement may change the past pattern.
  • #86,595
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:49pm Jun 1, 2008 5:49pm
Monthly momentum is bullish but first we might get a retrace to 200 area just like shahroodi mentioned, I totally agree with everything he mentioned
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #86,596
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:51pm Jun 1, 2008 5:51pm
cable went up to DP, BOUNCED from there, and is now stuck at where it started. lets see how this turns out.

UJ's been bouncing back and forth. but i think it's too early to judge price action. there was an 87 pip gap in cable, and a lousy 32 pip gap in UJ after all.
  • #86,597
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:52pm Jun 1, 2008 5:52pm
Quoting Clouds
By my calculations, is what I see.
In 08' the gbp/jpy was 250, and went to 200.
So 09' 150
10' 100
11' 50
12' 1
hah

  • #86,598
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:52pm Jun 1, 2008 5:52pm
Quoting karmostaji
Monthly momentum is bullish but first we might get a retrace to 200 area just like shahroodi mentioned, I totally agree with everything he mentioned
I agree it may go up too, but its looking to be a choppy ride so far
  • #86,599
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:53pm Jun 1, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting lilmoe
cable went up to DP, BOUNCED from there, and is now stuck at where it started. lets see how this turns out.

UJ's been bouncing back and forth. but i think it's too early to judge price action. there was an 87 pip gap in cable, and a lousy 32 pip gap in UJ after all.
News out of GBP is driving the move ... GBP will show more weakness then UJ

UJ only dropping due to risk aversion on the news
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #86,600
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:55pm Jun 1, 2008 5:55pm
I have a method that employs geometrical arcs that pointed to a high at 209.12. Well, we fell short of that and as of 3:51 PDT prices have plunged which tells me that the Gj is heading lower, but it may retrace higher before doing so.

Also, if you were to look at the 4 hour charts over the past few months, 70% of the waves ended in 5 waves, and the exceptions were 7 & 9 waves. On 3 occurences, we had a 11 wave count which was the most you had. If you check the recent price action, you had an 11 wave count - another confirmation of a possible high.

As for price retracements, I was hoping we can get some input from others as to what to expect.

Either way, if people think that the Gj mirrors the DJIA, we had a sharp break on the DJIA and prices are retouching the middle portion of the BB. It could go up to the trendline break before falling again. This would also bode well for the GJ

My 2 c
Al
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