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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #86,561
  • Jun 1, 2008 4:58pm Jun 1, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting mktjong
arrh arrg .. may not be this time, the bearish divergence is just too severe .. I think.
i agree
  • #86,562
  • Jun 1, 2008 4:58pm Jun 1, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting mktjong
arrh arrg .. may not be this time, the bearish divergence is just too severe .. I think.
Maybe it will fall in the minority 10% this time ......

....but I think gu will go back to 1.9800 taking gj up to 209 area before picking up more shorts to send the crapper sailing.......
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #86,563
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:02pm Jun 1, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting Infinity
Maybe it will fall in the minority 10% this time ......

....but I think gu will go back to 1.9800 taking gj up to 209 area before picking up more shorts to send the crapper sailing.......
I still have a small piece of my 209.2 short running by the way....
stop at be....waiting to short a failure of the 209 area. My gu short got closed out completely but I am looking to short again in the 1.98 area.
Bless
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #86,564
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:03pm Jun 1, 2008 5:03pm
Quoting Que
Guess I should have shorted at 208.80 huh lilmoe...
i told u it was bearich
  • #86,565
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:04pm Jun 1, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting Infinity
Maybe it will fall in the minority 10% this time ......

....but I think gu will go back to 1.9800 taking gj up to 209 area before picking up more shorts to send the crapper sailing.......
Are you just saying 90% of the time, or did you use the past year's data and it was really 90%?
  • #86,566
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:04pm Jun 1, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting Infinity
I still have a small piece of my 209.2 short running by the way....
stop at be....waiting to short a failure of the 209 area. My gu short got closed out completely but I am looking to short again in the 1.98 area.
Bless
It has retraced back to 4H 5 sma minutes ago ..
  • #86,567
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:05pm Jun 1, 2008 5:05pm
Quoting Que
I lilmoe...




i love u too bro
  • #86,568
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:06pm Jun 1, 2008 5:06pm
Quoting Clouds
Are you just saying 90% of the time, or did you use the past year's data and it was really 90%?
Actually, if you look back about a year or so, someone did a study on the majors over the history that they had on FXCM (I think it was FXCM) and the gap closed within the spread something like 87% of the time.

edit, if I remember correctly this was also by the end of the Tuesday Bar.
Que
  • #86,569
  • Edited 5:22pm Jun 1, 2008 5:06pm | Edited 5:22pm
if it makes anyone feel anyone better i unloaded my shorts at 208.90 to 208.70 for now, so maybe thats the reason the price is going down (ur welcome to all the shorts, and sorry to all the longs) looking to go long at the right time, and if it goes against me i can always hedge and collect some interest....
  • #86,570
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:07pm Jun 1, 2008 5:07pm
In my opinion i do think tht this pair is heading north still and not yet be ready to head lower..the reson is from the charts i attached last week which is the same as i attach now..at opening at 4pm EST i checked FxSol prices and it went down to a low of about 206.96 which is about the the line of the triangle, in other words testing the breakout line of the triangle and now its heading back up north.

I would only change my opinion only if the triangle is breached in a strong decisive way and not weakly..so we will see how it unfolds...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #86,571
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:10pm Jun 1, 2008 5:10pm
Quoting samuel84
In my opinion i do think tht this pair is heading north still and not yet be ready to head lower..the reson is from the charts i attached last week which is the same as i attach now..at opening at 4pm EST i checked FxSol prices and it went down to a low of about 206.96 which is about the the line of the triangle, in other words testing the breakout line of the triangle and now its heading back up north.

I would only change my opinion only if the triangle is breached in a strong decisive way and not weakly..so we will see how it unfolds...
Well, probably ..after another >200 pips drop
  • #86,572
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:10pm Jun 1, 2008 5:10pm
Well I've added another Short here at 208.08....
  • #86,573
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:11pm Jun 1, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting mktjong
It has retraced back to 4H 5 sma minutes ago ..
I see that....

I am also watching the 207.7 area, which was also pointed out by Malcomb. If this area fails to hold then 207 will be all but certain.....206.2-40 will be next if 207 is taken out. Let's see how it plays. Either way, it has been a wonderful Sunday so far....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #86,574
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:12pm Jun 1, 2008 5:12pm
Quoting samuel84
In my opinion i do think tht this pair is heading north still and not yet be ready to head lower..the reson is from the charts i attached last week which is the same as i attach now..at opening at 4pm EST i checked FxSol prices and it went down to a low of about 206.96 which is about the the line of the triangle, in other words testing the breakout line of the triangle and now its heading back up north.

I would only change my opinion only if the triangle is breached in a strong decisive way and not weakly..so we will see how it unfolds...
From your chart where did the price bounce back...is it at your trendline
  • #86,575
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:12pm Jun 1, 2008 5:12pm
The monday bar will tell the tale...

No way is this Sunday bar going to be anything special. I unloaded my shorts...

But if the Monday bar is Bullish, the gap is going to fill by the end of tuesday. If the Monday bar is Bearish, hello 203....
Que
  • #86,576
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:13pm Jun 1, 2008 5:13pm
Quoting Que
Actually, if you look back about a year or so, someone did a study on the majors over the history that they had on FXCM (I think it was FXCM) and the gap closed within the spread something like 87% of the time.

edit, if I remember correctly this was also by the end of the Tuesday Bar.
Do u remember if 87% of the time the gap was filled Sunday, or other days? I'll look for the thread.
  • #86,577
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:14pm Jun 1, 2008 5:14pm
OK, I'll take the middle ground. I think we'll be between 208.5 & 207.5 for some time. Let's see what Tokyo has to say...
  • #86,578
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:14pm Jun 1, 2008 5:14pm
Quoting mktjong
Well, probably ..after another >200 pips drop
I do not get what do you mean by tht? care to enlighten me?
  • #86,579
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:15pm Jun 1, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting Clouds
Do u remember if 87% of the time the gap was filled Sunday, or other days? I'll look for the thread.
I did an edit, and I believe it was by Tuesday.

I only remember this because my friend at work trades every gap and quotes this every fucking time. I have to say, he is doing well on gap trades, and I am Long for now...
Que
  • #86,580
  • Jun 1, 2008 5:15pm Jun 1, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting eric_charbon
From your chart where did the price bounce back...is it at your trendline
yes approximatly at the trendline exactly..
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