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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #86,401
  • May 31, 2008 10:57pm May 31, 2008 10:57pm
Quoting Caerus
Two good places for current pricing on the weekends. These two seem to be updated regularly throughout:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_GBPJPY&v=i
http://www.gcitrading.com/forex-quotes.htm
great charts Caerus,

Thanks again!!!!
  • #86,402
  • Jun 1, 2008 1:13am Jun 1, 2008 1:13am
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...814189581.html

do u agree to this?
greed+gluttony+self-indulgence+craving= success
  • #86,403
  • Edited 2:43am Jun 1, 2008 2:34am | Edited 2:43am
Quoting OwningSoros
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...814189581.html

do u agree to this?
I think she'll go higher after an inner fib retrace. 1st stop 1.6579

Scotty B
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  • #86,404
  • Jun 1, 2008 2:43am Jun 1, 2008 2:43am
Some ideas
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???? ????!
  • #86,405
  • Edited 9:58am Jun 1, 2008 9:39am | Edited 9:58am
malcolm, i agree with everything you say here. it's just on daily chart i see there's more room up before the drop.
i am a trend follower and for me this means opening positions on confirmation of trend change. and at this moment, i don't see any confirmation to open short; i do see however a LOT of signs that actual trend is weakening more and more. but... something is not quite right.
let me point out a couple of things: last daily wave ("C") doesn't seem to be matured yet. it might be just a gut feeling, but let's look at how long previous waves lasted:
- "A" took 34 candles to mature, and it has 5 waves on h4
- "B" drop lasted only 5 candles
- and finally, "C" has 15 candles and ONLY 3 waves on h4 - this is not right.
now, if we were to go by symmetry, i would go for a "C" of about 30 candles (similar to "A"). i also need to see 2 more waves on h4 (since i expect "C" to be an impulsive wave... this means 5 waves not 3!), so most likely we'll see a correction down to 206 area and then another push upwards, maybe to 213, maybe higher. another thing to consider is the "height of wave "A" - 109.53 to 209.01 = 1648 pips; i would expect "C" within the same range as A... so a projected high for "C" would be 216 area (precisely, 216.26), because it started at 199.78.
if this is the case, we have 3-4 more weeks of price going up.
on the other hand, IF i see a daily close BELOW that supporting trend line, i'll change my actual view and start building a pyramid with my short orders.
that's it for now.

Quoting malcolmb14
A few things going on with the markets

1) DJ tested 12700 after the 600 point drop week before last . As long as she stays under 12700 = bearish. In fact Thursday and Friday played out exactly as i expected.
2) gold formed a double bottom with bull div in rsi and macd ... heading back up = bullish ( bearish for gj )
3) oil , double bottom of 125 which is close enough to a 38.2% fib retracement off 125. It is resting on its 50 sma on a 4 hour. This is going to drag on US markets.
4) USDJPY .... where do i start . How can something go to 110 with no strength behind the move ? Look at the MASSIVE a divergence on both macd and rsi. Until this is broken I would not be expecting any kind of super move in USDJPY. I am seeing this same divergence in the GBPJPY and EURJPY.

do not forget that USDJPY is still a carry trade.
If oil is driven to 150 and the DJ drops as i expect it to ( I mean if your mate likes fundamentals he has got to ask himself why DJ is anywhere close to 12500 still when the economy is falling apart) why would carry trade risk not unwind ? It has in the past.

Fundamentalists laugh at us technical traders , but at the end of the day we are the ones that will have the last laugh. I have often had battles with stock traders who bought stocks on a drop and asked me , when i said it was going to drop further based on the charts they told me to get real ... bought anyway and suffered large draw downs and held the stock for a 2 year cycle before they broke even ... investors hey.... they are something else !!!!

Now lets talk about Fridays 50 pip move in GJ

1) GJ close to 209 and alot of bulls out there are thinking break out and up to 215 we go.
2) the spike occured in 3 minutes. ... can you imagine the SIZE of that single order. It was a single order in illiquid times that pushed this order up , likely only a $500 million order to bring some more bulls into the trap . The same group will be selling massive orders very soon , in the billions. The bullish retial investors will likely push the pair higher on Sunday , but the smart money has left the house and is gleefully rubbing their hands waiting to sell at the right moment. they are the same people who have been holding up the carry trade as the dj dropped 600 points. I think the dj has yet to go to 11700 and the big boys want to drop gj 10 times as fast as the dj is moving.

I have seen this classic bull trap many times in the stock market.

I guess the next week or so will determine the real direction of the GJ and the US stock market.

Oh and do not forget that historically in the US stock markets it is sell in May and go away. This should make carry trades unwind also as the markets drop.

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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #86,406
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:08am Jun 1, 2008 10:08am
a follow up to my previous post. that whole "symmetry" thing could mean nothing. there is a quite similar development not long time ago, i circled both areas for comparison.
i don't know which way price will go, but i will be prepared for both situations.
enjoy the rest of the weekend!
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #86,407
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:20am Jun 1, 2008 10:20am
Time for drop now.... Check the news...
  • #86,408
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:28am Jun 1, 2008 10:28am
Quoting ffbk
Time for drop now.... Check the news...
what's happened another B Stearns
  • #86,409
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:29am Jun 1, 2008 10:29am
Why what's in the news
  • #86,410
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:31am Jun 1, 2008 10:31am
The Drudge Report says there's a big fire at Universal Studios...I can see the smoke but doubt that'll move geppy!
  • #86,411
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:37am Jun 1, 2008 10:37am
Quoting Poocher
The Drudge Report says there's a big fire at Universal Studios...I can see the smoke but doubt that'll move geppy!
hmmm...no smoke without fire

Maybe I am serious about another BS...check out shares/graph of UBS recently It's a .....

http://www.smu.edu/newsinfo/stories/...-bookcover.jpg
  • #86,412
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:40am Jun 1, 2008 10:40am
Oanda's still at 209.05
  • #86,413
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:40am Jun 1, 2008 10:40am
Geppy is going to 211 213 before any down that means my shorts are going to bleed red red blood
  • #86,414
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:41am Jun 1, 2008 10:41am
06:07 UK Lender To Stun London With Profit Warning - UK Times Sydney, June 01:

The UK Times reports on Sunday that the UK"s largest lender of buy-to-let mortgages, Bradford & Bingley, which is in the middle of a rights-issue roadshow, will stun the City this week with a profit warning and the departure of its embattled chief executive, Steven Crawshaw.
The Times states that the announcement will trigger widespread concern that British banks are sitting on a time-bomb of rising mortgage arrears and mounting bad debt. It will also reignite fears about the viability of some of the UK"s top financial institutions. The profit warning is expected to be contained within the bank"s rights-issue document that will be sent to investors in the next five days. Profits for this financial year will be significantly lower than analyst"s forecasts. The bank has been hit hard by mounting arrears from borrowers and squeezed margins.
  • #86,415
  • Edited 11:00am Jun 1, 2008 10:44am | Edited 11:00am
Hope everyone had a great weekend!
I eventually managed to sort out my firewall, so can now post charts again.


Here's what I see:

First Chart DAILY - Notice the Z MACD, Z Stochs, QQE and Price Action. Also note the conjested area of the SMA's (white SMA is 156). Price jumps above before large drop.

Second Chart DAILY - Zoom in of the Bearish divergence on Z MACD, Triple top etc

Third Chart 4hr -Bearish divergence, indicators identical to the Feb. drop.

I am holding Short from 208.60 area witha SL above 210, and thought to myself (check previous post about me thinking the big boys would spike before a drop, which as you know happened in a 30 sec. period last thing on Friday):.. that if I was a large institution and IF we were to drop - I certainly wouldn't let everyone else on board.
I would know that Buy orders were triggered at 208.20, more were just above 209.20/45, and SL's were also building just above 209.00/45...so I would spike up triggering the buy orders and SL's before dropping Price back down.

Tonight and tomorrow will show the way...If this is the drop, I think we can expect to see all resistance and TL's smashed and a retest of 198 quicker than you can drop a hat, my guess is a 1000 pip move down by Friday close. Of course this pair will do what it wants, but I've realised that by trading the opposite to the general market view is keeping me on the right side of trades these days.

Looking forward to the next few days bros!
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  • #86,416
  • Jun 1, 2008 11:00am Jun 1, 2008 11:00am
Quoting shakesfx
Hope everyone has had a great weekend!
Managed to sort out my firewall, so can now post charts.


Here's what I see:

First Chart DAILY - Notice the Z MACD, Z Stochs, QQE and Price Action. Also note the conjested area of the SMA's (white SMA is 156). Price jumps above before large drop.




Second Chart DAILY - Zoom in of the Bearish divergence on Z MACD, Triple top etc

Third Chart 4hr -Bearish divergence, indicators identical to the Feb. drop.

I am holding Short from 208.60 area witha SL above 210, and thought to myself (check previous post about me thinking the big boys would spike before a drop, which as you know happened in a 30 sec. period last thing on Friday):.. that if I was a large institution and IF we were to drop - I certainly wouldn't let everyone else on board.
I would know that Buy orders were triggered at 208.20, more were just above 209, and SL's were also building just above 209...so I would spike up triggering the buy orders and SL's before dropping Price back down, then I would then be at the top of a potential large move.

Tonight and tomorrow will show the way...If this is the drop, I think we can expect to see all resistance and TL's smashed and a retest of 198 quicker than you can drop a hat, my guess is a 1000 pip move down by Friday close. Of course this pair will do what it wants, but I've realised that by trading the opposite to the general market view is keeping me on the right side of the trades these days.

Looking forward to the next few days bros!

Nice job on your analysis. I completely agree.
Should be an interesting week.
  • #86,417
  • Jun 1, 2008 11:01am Jun 1, 2008 11:01am
Quoting vinesh2
Geppy is going to 211 213 before any down that means my shorts are going to bleed red red blood
agree; chances for continuing up move 80%, if stock market will not crash this week
  • #86,418
  • Jun 1, 2008 11:13am Jun 1, 2008 11:13am
I think the real analysis should be Provisions for both camps should we all be wrong from once side to the next. Good luck with your choices!!!!!!
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #86,419
  • Jun 1, 2008 11:15am Jun 1, 2008 11:15am
Agreed.. News point to a big drop too....
  • #86,420
  • Jun 1, 2008 11:20am Jun 1, 2008 11:20am
Quoting OrionsWay
I think the real analysis should be Provisions for both camps should we all be wrong from once side to the next. Good luck with your choices!!!!!!

Hi Orion, how have you been this week?

What do you think to that low volume move up on Friday? What do you see bro? I held the Longs from mid 205, but dumped them here as I can't see any reason for going further... I originally thought we would get to 213 and then to 225, but not anymore...Are you still holding your Longs or are you a little bearish now bro?
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