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  • #201
  • May 30, 2008 6:00am May 30, 2008 6:00am
actually, i am not in the trade right now, i think i will get in after the inflation data. the market tends to get stupid at that time, makes me nervous, but you have been on. i was just wanting to get more info on the balance so i understood what you meant by that and when was a good time to enter and exit.

thanks for all the help, dude, keep it up.
  • #202
  • May 30, 2008 6:19am May 30, 2008 6:19am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
For what time frame

short term (intaday)
med term (position trade)
long term ( weekly)
ON THE AUSSIE COULD YOU PLEASE GIVE INTRADAY
  • #203
  • May 30, 2008 6:38am May 30, 2008 6:38am
Quoting mtrmth
actually, i am not in the trade right now, i think i will get in after the inflation data. the market tends to get stupid at that time, makes me nervous, but you have been on. i was just wanting to get more info on the balance so i understood what you meant by that and when was a good time to enter and exit.

thanks for all the help, dude, keep it up.
Okay. That's your call. I would not trade that way though.

Think this way.... show me a chart and I will tell you the news.
  • #204
  • May 30, 2008 6:39am May 30, 2008 6:39am
Newton's third law: law of reciprocal actions


All forces occur in pairs, and these two forces are equal in magnitude and opposite in direction.

In other words "For every force there is an equal, but opposite, force".
  • #205
  • May 30, 2008 6:42am May 30, 2008 6:42am
Quoting 3jjj
ON THE AUSSIE COULD YOU PLEASE GIVE INTRADAY
Sorry but I am not set up for AUD intraday. I will try to take a quick look at it though.
  • #206
  • Edited 7:13am May 30, 2008 6:48am | Edited 7:13am
I see no changes for the NA session. I will say that the way to handle this is to watch your balance levels and if we are moving through then be flexible and reverse your plans and targets.

Do not act to quickly!!!!!!!!!! Especially if it happens after the data. News rarely rules the demand supply and if it does it is only for a short time. Good luck today.

Trading Plan for the North American Session 5.30.2008

General

Currently, of the 4 majors only 1 is in reversal mode and that is cable. The USDJPY came within a few ticks of balancing yesterday but did not so technically it still needs to move down a bit. Both the Euro and the Swiss Franc still have unfinished business. While this is not a reliable indicator, it does lead me to believe we may continue to see some limited dollar strength into the end of the month.



EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5611

Balance 1.5548

Short Target and Reverse 1.5432


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push to balance at 5548. Target 1.5432. Reverse to longs at this level.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and go long to 5611. Reverse to shorts at this level.


USDJPY

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 105.90

Balance 105.25

Short Target and Reverse 104.85


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to at 105.25. Target 105.90. Reverse to short at this level.

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set shorts to 104.85. Reverse back to long at this level.


GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Balanced

Long Target and Reverse 1.9825

Balance 1.9745

Short Target and Reverse 1.9673


BIAS – Stay long above 9745. If price moves below 9745 area then cover. I would not short this pair but aggressive traders can use the 9745 area as a pivot.

If price moves down look to position long at 9673.


USDCHF

Distribution Classification = UnBalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 1.0554

Balance 1.0459

Short Target and Reverse 1.0419

Bias – Look to set up long on a push down to balance at 1.0459 or before. Target 1.0554 and set up shorts at this level.

If we trade down through balance, exit and look to re-set longs at 1.0419.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Trading Plan for North America 5.30.2008.doc   25 KB | 357 downloads
  • #207
  • May 30, 2008 6:51am May 30, 2008 6:51am
well, i made a bad statement. i meant to say that i am going to wait for the news and see what it has to say. i do not trade the news, the market can get stupid at that time. sorry for that mistake.
  • #208
  • May 30, 2008 6:57am May 30, 2008 6:57am
my chart says that jpy hit 105.23, isn't that balance???
  • #209
  • May 30, 2008 7:14am May 30, 2008 7:14am
Quoting mtrmth
my chart says that jpy hit 105.23, isn't that balance???
yes it is.
  • #210
  • May 30, 2008 7:23am May 30, 2008 7:23am
you said in the post that it had not gotten to balance. it has not broken thru the balance, so i am assuming that we are heading for 105.90, right???
  • #211
  • May 30, 2008 7:56am May 30, 2008 7:56am
Quoting mtrmth
you said in the post that it had not gotten to balance. it has not broken thru the balance, so i am assuming that we are heading for 105.90, right???

I seriously doubt, that we will make it without a significant challenge to the balance level, but I have no way of knowing anymore than you. I would be prepared for a hard push down thru balance and observe if it happens. Does the demand push it on up? to the target?

Just remember that you and I know exactly the same thing about what is going to actually happen. Nothing. Just be prepared, have your plan, trust your instincts and react.

If you are asking me to predict, that is a fun thing but it means nothing..... here's my prediction... we will push hard down thru the balance level, it will seem as though we are going lower, then price will reverse and move up to 105.90 area. You will reverse and go short and price will collapse all the way back down to the lower target level. If this happens, then you have to send me some cigars with all the money you make. Cubans are fine.
  • #212
  • May 30, 2008 8:07am May 30, 2008 8:07am
can't buy cubans here, will have to mail order them from overseas or canada!!


i see what you are saying with predictions, if you could predict you would be wealthier than warren buffet and bill gates combined.

what i am asking is according to my charts, we have hit balance at 105.25, actually 105.23 about 6 hours ago. we have been slowly heading up to 105.70 a few minutes ago. as far as i could see, you did not change the numbers since last night, so if i am reading the numbers right, we should get to 105.90 the we look for a reversal, right????

or am i completely out in left field???
  • #213
  • May 30, 2008 8:13am May 30, 2008 8:13am
Quoting mtrmth
can't buy cubans here, will have to mail order them from overseas or canada!!


i see what you are saying with predictions, if you could predict you would be wealthier than warren buffet and bill gates combined.

what i am asking is according to my charts, we have hit balance at 105.25, actually 105.23 about 6 hours ago. we have been slowly heading up to 105.70 a few minutes ago. as far as i could see, you did not change the numbers since last night, so if i am reading the numbers right, we should get to 105.90 the we look for a reversal, right????

or am i completely out in left field???
Yes. Sorry I misunderstood you also. That is absolutely correct.
  • #214
  • May 30, 2008 8:17am May 30, 2008 8:17am
ok, i thought i was being stupid and having brain problems.

i will be looking for that move.

is there a target for the reversal???
  • #215
  • May 30, 2008 8:56am May 30, 2008 8:56am
Ok, they are more like "bias". Got it, thanks.

R

Quoting DownRiverTrader
My theory in short term trading is not to forecast or predict. It is pointless. The beauty of this method is that it takes exactly "what is known" in the market for any given session and positions accordingly using nothing but price, time and sales.
  • #216
  • May 30, 2008 10:06am May 30, 2008 10:06am
Quoting mtrmth
ok, i thought i was being stupid and having brain problems.

i will be looking for that move.

is there a target for the reversal???
It would be the high target on the sheet. If the move up does occur in the UJ then I will take a look and see if it needs adjusting once it is in progress. The sheet is good.
  • #217
  • May 30, 2008 10:06am May 30, 2008 10:06am
At this time, you should feel like you are going to throw up.

Go take a walk or work in the garden or smoke your pipe or something
  • #218
  • May 30, 2008 10:13am May 30, 2008 10:13am
I am rather confused now about eurusd. It seems like it has reached the reverse point and should start to turn downward. Is that right?
Expected the unexpected
  • #219
  • May 30, 2008 10:20am May 30, 2008 10:20am
That's correct get short.

Actually it is not the reversal level, but the "push into balance".

Here is the instructions from the Trade Plan. Underlined below.... be sure to follow the risk instructions.

EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5611

Balance 1.5548

Short Target and Reverse 1.5432


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push to balance at 5548. Target 1.5432. Reverse to longs at this level.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and go long to 5611. Reverse to shorts at this level.
  • #220
  • May 30, 2008 10:32am May 30, 2008 10:32am
Quoting scyang
I am rather confused now about eurusd. It seems like it has reached the reverse point and should start to turn downward. Is that right?

I will work on the language for next week. It is a little confusing.
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