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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,861
  • Edited 5:44am May 30, 2008 3:52am | Edited 5:44am
Hello fti and other brilliant traders ,

I was trading with as per your teachings and inching up regularly. I got confident and now (due to my lack of nimbleness, I think) , EURUSD snowballed against me.

I am Long 10 mini contract with average price of 1.5667. Just could not book loss in the "hope" that Buck can't be strong for long. Need your help and suggestion.

I had to infuse extra captial to avoid margin calls and now too scared to do any rescue. Lesson's learnt hard way to be nimble.

Any suggestion or advise will be really helpful.

(I think DutchAngel was in similar situation .....any words of advise DutchAngel)

Regards,
  • #2,862
  • May 30, 2008 6:14am May 30, 2008 6:14am
Quoting hemal011
Hello fti and other brilliant traders ,

I was trading with as per your teachings and inching up regularly. I got confident and now (due to my lack of nimbleness, I think) , EURUSD snowballed against me.

I am Long 10 mini contract with average price of 1.5667. Just could not book loss in the "hope" that Buck can't be strong for long. Need your help and suggestion.

I had to infuse extra captial to avoid margin calls and now too scared to do any rescue. Lesson's learnt hard way to be nimble.

Any suggestion or advise will be really helpful.

(I think DutchAngel was in similar situation .....any words of advise DutchAngel)

Regards,

Thoughts:

You are so far away... and 10 mini-lots!...so you are brave and probably already got a lot of foreign capital...and it is Friday...!!!

So either

1) Many rescues with level 1 and 2 when EMA(12) in 5M is long and away from resistance...

Edit: 2) Close some positions _yes, with a lose_ and use the funds to rescue the left behind...

3) Pull the plug and promise never to go against 15M...See it as a the price to learn a lesson...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,863
  • May 30, 2008 6:27am May 30, 2008 6:27am
Quoting hemal011
Hello fti and other brilliant traders ,

I was trading with as per your teachings and inching up regularly. I got confident and now (due to my lack of nimbleness, I think) , EURUSD snowballed against me.

I am Long 10 mini contract with average price of 1.5667. Just could not book loss in the "hope" that Buck can't be strong for long. Need your help and suggestion.

I had to infuse extra captial to avoid margin calls and now too scared to do any rescue. Lesson's learnt hard way to be nimble.

Any suggestion or advise will be really helpful.

(I think DutchAngel was in similar situation .....any words of advise DutchAngel)

Regards,
Hi Helma

I carried large drawdown in pips, but did not come close to a margin call, which i luckily have never had, not even on demo. I still had sufficient equity in my account to enter new trades on other currencies, so that i could still keep building equity in my acc. This i have done everyday except for yesterday and today as I have had too many disruptions from workmen who are putting paving down in my garden.

I cannot help you here unfortunately. Read fti's response to my confessional post. Herein lies an answer for you.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #2,864
  • May 30, 2008 6:38am May 30, 2008 6:38am
Thanks LuSan and DutchAngel.

I can hold to this position for long with funds. I have equity but keep small in accounts (Just in case dealer goes broke).

The problem is with confidence and fear. I am still feeling under the cloud.

I will follow your advise to face this storm and promise not to go against 15 min candle ever. (Can't think what was I thinking while entering this trade)
  • #2,865
  • May 30, 2008 6:38am May 30, 2008 6:38am
Any views on EURUSD move in next few days ? (based on fundamentals and market trends )
  • #2,866
  • May 30, 2008 6:48am May 30, 2008 6:48am
Quoting hemal011
Any views on EURUSD move in next few days ? (based on fundamentals and market trends )
We have to wait until the end of today to see what is going on...right now 15M is flat...maybe getting ready for the next drop...if it really turns up with a green candle on the 1D then...it might look like a short term long...but we dance the NOW...so do not take me too seriously...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,867
  • May 30, 2008 7:03am May 30, 2008 7:03am
Quoting hemal011
Thanks LuSan and DutchAngel.

I can hold to this position for long with funds. I have equity but keep small in accounts (Just in case dealer goes broke).
I am relieved to hear this. Do not rush into a rescue because you are panicked. You need a clear and focused mind.

Quoting hemal011
The problem is with confidence and fear. I am still feeling under the cloud.
You cannot trade rationally when you are in state of fear or hope. These two emotions are normally best buddies, but they are YOUR enemy.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #2,868
  • May 30, 2008 7:22am May 30, 2008 7:22am
Quoting hemal011

The problem is with confidence and fear. I am still feeling under the cloud.

I will follow your advise to face this storm and promise not to go against 15 min candle ever. (Can't think what was I thinking while entering this trade)
I am sorry...that cloud...a little zen meditation might work...close eyes...focus on you breadth for 10M...it might give you some clarity...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,869
  • May 30, 2008 9:14am May 30, 2008 9:14am
Is trading on Friday risky?
After all the market is wrapping up and we are in trouble then there is little time to rescue before week closing. Am I missing something?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,870
  • Edited 12:08pm May 30, 2008 11:13am | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting hemal011
Thanks LuSan and DutchAngel.

I can hold to this position for long with funds. I have equity but keep small in accounts (Just in case dealer goes broke).

The problem is with confidence and fear. I am still feeling under the cloud.

I will follow your advise to face this storm and promise not to go against 15 min candle ever. (Can't think what was I thinking while entering this trade)
Ema,

it is easy to give advise but hard to take it...I got beaten into the ground today...I paid my entry ticket into a new universe and I learned 5 big lessons. I want to share it with you:

1. Friday trading...be specially careful because traders wrap the day and the day is very short...We have not much time to rescue.

2. End of month trading...probably avoid them...Winners want to lock their profits and loser want to reduces it...so very odd volatility...

3. Sometimes we must let go and fight another day. Do not hesistate to close a trade.

4. Trading is easy but it takes a long time to really learned. I must be patient. I learned something new everyday...so I need to keep my size small until the rate of learning slow down. I do not want to thousand dollars lessons that could be bought for pennies.

5. Confidence is built by practicing with small size and gradually building up. It is like weigh lifting...first we do 20 and then 30 pounds,,,until we reach our limits...there will be pain along the way...so we slow down but do not stop...

...still it hurts like hell...

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,871
  • May 30, 2008 12:22pm May 30, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting luSan
.......
4. Trading is easy but it takes a long time to really learned. I must be patient. I learned something new everyday...so I need to keep my size small until the rate of learning slow down. I do not want to thousand dollars lessons that could be bought for pennies.
.......
Hello Lusan,

I agree with point 4!!!

I always read that it is not advisable to trade on Friday,
but if you trade anyway, until 12:00 London.

Have a nice weekend.

Textor
  • #2,872
  • May 30, 2008 1:41pm May 30, 2008 1:41pm
Quoting hemal011
Hello fti and other brilliant traders ,

I was trading with as per your teachings and inching up regularly. I got confident and now (due to my lack of nimbleness, I think) , EURUSD snowballed against me.

I am Long 10 mini contract with average price of 1.5667. Just could not book loss in the "hope" that Buck can't be strong for long. Need your help and suggestion.

I had to infuse extra captial to avoid margin calls and now too scared to do any rescue. Lesson's learnt hard way to be nimble.

Any suggestion or advise will be really helpful.

(I think DutchAngel was in similar situation .....any words of advise DutchAngel)

Regards,

hemal,

Sorry to hear of your losses.

However,you are not the only one to come unstuck.

Take a look at this. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=88718
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...n/post_old.gif May 28, 2008 6:09am
bluefox
Member
Member Since Feb 2006
Posts: 82


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif my adventure with a semi-martingale system
I've traded a semi-martingale system for 3 months and made 50Pips everyday, except the few days I had to give my attention elsewhere and as a result had to pocket fewer pips. I initially structured my positions upon micro-lots, then mini-lots as my confidence began to build. by the time I got busted, my largest trade was 1.3 standard lots.

the system I used was very simple. basically I buy with a stop order plus a 20pips filter when MACD(34,55,34) goes above zero line, and vice versa for sell. my money management scheme goes fibonacci, that is, I trade 1,2,3,5,8,13, with 13 being the largest position I could handle.

before I started trading it, I backtested it manually from 2007.10.7 - 2008.1.1. and the fact that not a single losing day really boosted my confidence. I knew the danger of martingale systems. but I thought that my little twist could somehow avert that. besides, GBPJPY had to go somewhere everyday, and as long as I'm always in the market, I'd always catch the move when it does.

and it did exactly that for 6 months, 3 months backesting period plus 3 months live trading, then one day it didn't move far enough for me to cover losts plus my 50pip daily objective. as a result, I lost all the profit I've accumulated, plus a big chunk of my original account.

looking back at that period, I couldn't help but be rueful that it was over. I traded the system because of the easiness about it - I didn't have to monitor the market, all I had to do was to wait for my phone to ring and then place the orders with proper position size calculated by losses and profit objectives. and then, profit would come, day in and day out, though small at first, grew larger as I increased the base-size of my trades. I was looking at assured prosperity, and the belief was reinforced every day, how much better could it be? I ignored all the danger signs, and dreamed about becoming rich, slowly but surely...

I only woke up when the roof fell. I didn't know what to do, in the confusion I threw my bed into the fire as well, along with some other furnitures. I stopped when I began to tire down the walls, as I realised if I did that, I'd have nothing left to rebuild. I let go of the mindless struggle and admitted defeat.

thank God I had enough sense to stop at that. otherwise I'd never be able to gather enough courage to come back to trading. let this tale be a warning to the martingalers, who still dream of never having to swallow a loss.

I'm back to sensible trading now.



Remember that fti worked for a large investment bank, but even that type of operation can be brought to its knees without proper safeguards being actioned.

Regards,


BabeFX
  • #2,873
  • Edited 5:44pm May 30, 2008 5:06pm | Edited 5:44pm
hemal

My advice would be to read this thread and practice the principles. There is no hand holding here and if you get in trouble then you will normally have to learn the lesson until you get it.

As babies, when we learnt to walk, we all fell down and hurt ourselves. Just like riding a bike. But once you get it, it's with you forever. So keep at it and keep learning, but to have a true master here with us, it makes the journey ever so shorter.

My simple advice is, please do not over expose yourself. Do not be greedy as that is a sure way to kill your account. Find your balance.

The market is the best teacher you will have.
  • #2,874
  • May 30, 2008 5:39pm May 30, 2008 5:39pm
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran,
I think your perceptions of me is not so accurate.
I am a simple man , only that I have traded the markets all my life that I know the truth about it, so I try to make my perspective available for all who may be willing to explore to find this truth for themselves.

The heros that you percieve me to be, well that s onlly in your mind, I am as human as everyone else. I much prefer to the alive, than be dead hero. However, I do believe that I will never live forever. Immortality is not the way of nature.

regards
You have thousands of people who come to this site in search of the type of teachings you have offered. The sad fact is that most would not even know this thread exists although I would confidently say that you are the most skilled and qualified trader here.

So when it is all put into perspective, you are full of wisdom. But sure, it is because of your life experience, no doubt about that.

However, this thread is more than just trading. It is about the mind also and that is a bit of wisdom you offer that is not part of the norm. You see, the most popular thread is based on signals from indicators.

Thousands of people believe in them and follow this thread religiously. The word spreads quickly and all these new people start to believe in these teachings. But the teachers are not qualified - they just keep repeating the same lies that they were taught. They keep thinking they are doing the right thing but keep killing their accounts. So could it be that the myths are wrong? That everything said, from seemingly authoritive people, is just a load of baloney? Nah, it couldn't be.... they'll just have to keep believing in these stories until they get it right.

The sad fact is, that most accounts die and these people are lost to the trading community forever. Only if they had found this thread and understood that bit of wisdom you have to offer.

Reading this thread will probably take the casual reader about a week. Just enough to get them onto the right track. The trick is to convince these signal traders that it is the right thing to do. Hmmmmm... not so easy I'm afraid.

So what are you up to this weekend fti? Anything intersting?
  • #2,875
  • May 30, 2008 6:45pm May 30, 2008 6:45pm
What about a weekend without smoking? You don't have to give up, light up again on Monday. Just experience the mindset need to get through to Monday without any pressure to never smoke again.
Good Trading
  • #2,876
  • May 30, 2008 7:27pm May 30, 2008 7:27pm
aud, imagine asking an indicator junkie to try trading naked for two days and then they can go back to their indicators. What do you think their reaction would be? Do you think they would be successful?

On the other hand, ask the same person to read this thread and then to attempt trading naked, they may see it in a different light. Some will get it and some will not, though I believe if they read it carefully and did so with respect for the wisdom fti offered, they will end up on the right path.

Do you believe that someone who believes in the triggers of indicators could really trade naked without understanding it? If you ask me, it would be torture.
  • #2,877
  • May 31, 2008 8:47am May 31, 2008 8:47am
Hi fti,

One single little intervention in the smoking issue. Your trading career was (and is) brilliant. Your technique is excellent and difficult to master. You have done it. Saving the banks' books is stressful. Correcting other people's errors is stressful. Babysitting positions is stressful. Snowballing is stressful. The reward to risk of the MO is stressful. You achieved great success in all that. You are a winner. Many people (including winners like you) smoke to lower stress. I have never done it. I hate smoking but I understand the smoker.

As I have already said a lot of times, I am immensely thankful for all your efforts in teaching us. So I wish you a very long life, enjoying the success you so hardly conquered.
  • #2,878
  • May 31, 2008 7:47pm May 31, 2008 7:47pm
Middle age technical support.





Inserted Video
  • #2,879
  • Jun 1, 2008 11:14pm Jun 1, 2008 11:14pm
Quoting fti
Hi David,
I've not had any reasons to visit Fuzhou, China. 4 generation ago my great grandfather left there ,to do missionary work for the Methodist Church. Fuzhou is the capital of Fujian aka Fujian 頭 and being the influence to Min Dong language. Although traditionally called a dialect, Foochowese is actually a separate language according to linguistic standards, because it is not mutually intelligible with other branches of Min Language and other Chinese languages. I am the 龍頭長孫 of the 團幟 branch in the family book.

You already know where your problems are. You just gotta find your size equilibrium, and until you can find it, you will never solve your predicament.
Try to tame your ambitions to your capacity. Remember that, "large" or "heavy" is relative.

regards
Hi, fti:

Glad you still maintain Chinese culture. On the contrary, I have met a lot Malaysian and Singaporean "bananas". You know what I mean. So to keep your family tree book, you need have sons.

Since 20 May, I started to short G/u and E/u. Bad timing. Until now, I am still holding some G/U short positions opened @9676 on average with -60 pips gain. However with some rescue operations, my equity is still growing during these days with rate of return which Buffet could kowtow to me .

The key is M/M. Thank you fti, I wish I could be one of your best students in the end.

By the way, where is Leighswww, our cheer leader. Wonder how is her trading going? Any news from her?

Best regards, sincerely.

David
  • #2,880
  • Jun 2, 2008 5:05am Jun 2, 2008 5:05am
hi guys, i want to ask how to determine the trend on larger timeframe? i.e 15M or daily
I used to have indicators such as median lines and moving averages to determine the trend. If prices are above the MA, then i would assume it to be uptrend.
Since you guys here trade naked, i am curious about it. And i want to join too.
Can i know what technique used to feel the trend? Is it bar charts/candlestick to determine your bias?
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