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  • #181
  • May 29, 2008 11:09am May 29, 2008 11:09am
Quoting 3jjj
can you clear this for me
you will not short usd/yen but wait to buy at 104.36???
That's correct.
  • #182
  • May 29, 2008 11:14am May 29, 2008 11:14am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
That's correct.

No. No . Sorry I read it wrong. Look to short at the level I posted.
  • #183
  • May 29, 2008 11:16am May 29, 2008 11:16am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
U/J

Long Reversal now at 104.36

E/U

Long Reversal now at 1.5460

This should have said reverse to short at 104.36

Long E/U at 1.5460.

I am trying to type and trade. Remeber these are reversal levels!!

Sorry. Darn internet
  • #184
  • Edited 11:33am May 29, 2008 11:18am | Edited 11:33am
duplicate/deleted
  • #185
  • May 29, 2008 11:21am May 29, 2008 11:21am
Real time entry points as the market moves down/up
. Added G/U Long Entry point just in case.
1.5454
104.32
1.9673
  • #186
  • May 29, 2008 11:59am May 29, 2008 11:59am
I was thinking that maybe it would be best to let you know when I actually enter or exit. Since I am watching the market real-time and unfortunately you can not.

I can post updates, but let you know my trades. I know it is confusing in this environment. I think I have some issues with my s/s conversion to spot on the Yen which I will fix tonight.

So right now, I am flat across the board. I am looking for an entry in Yen currently as it is nearest to my entry criteria.

Spot would be a short around 105.85.
  • #187
  • May 29, 2008 12:39pm May 29, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I was thinking that maybe it would be best to let you know when I actually enter or exit. Since I am watching the market real-time and unfortunately you can not.

I can post updates, but let you know my trades. I know it is confusing in this environment. I think I have some issues with my s/s conversion to spot on the Yen which I will fix tonight.

So right now, I am flat across the board. I am looking for an entry in Yen currently as it is nearest to my entry criteria.

Spot would be a short around 105.85.
Thanks DRT. Great thread. Thanks for all your patience.

And target for U/J would be 104.32?
cheers
  • #188
  • May 29, 2008 1:47pm May 29, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting IST
Thanks DRT. Great thread. Thanks for all your patience.

And target for U/J would be 104.32?
cheers

I will post the target once the daily lows are put in. I did not get filled on the last trip up. So I am not short just yet.
  • #189
  • Edited 7:26pm May 29, 2008 6:01pm | Edited 7:26pm
Trading Plan for the Asian/Europe Session 5.30.2008

General

Currently, of the 4 majors only 1 is in reversal mode and that is cable. The USDJPY came within a few ticks of balancing today but did not so technically it still needs to move down a bit. Both the Euro and the Swiss Franc still have unfinished business. While this is not a reliable indicator, it does lead me to believe we may continue to see some limited dollar strength into the end of the month. Remember, month end is upon us and flows will likely be heavy.



EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5611

Balance 1.5548

Short Target and Reverse 1.5432


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push to balance at 5548. Target 1.5432. Reverse to longs at this level.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and go long to 5611. Reverse to shorts at this level.


USDJPY

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 105.90

Balance 105.25

Short Target and Reverse 104.85


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to at 105.25. Target 105.90. Reverse to short at this level.

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set shorts to 104.85. Reverse back to long at this level.


GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Balanced

Long Target and Reverse 1.9825

Balance 1.9745

Short Target and Reverse 1.9673


BIAS – Stay long above 9745. If price moves below 9745 area then cover. I would not short this pair but aggressive traders can use the 9745 area as a pivot.

If price moves down look to position long at 9673.


USDCHF

Distribution Classification = UnBalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 1.0554

Balance 1.0459

Short Target and Reverse 1.0419

Bias – Look to set up long on a push down to balance at 1.0459 or before. Target 1.0554 and set up shorts at this level.

If we trade down through balance, exit and look to re-set longs at 1.0419.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Trading Plan for Asia-Europe 5.30.2008.doc   29 KB | 320 downloads
  • #190
  • May 29, 2008 7:42pm May 29, 2008 7:42pm
Thanks DRT for the trade plan. Appreciated.

TG
  • #191
  • May 29, 2008 8:13pm May 29, 2008 8:13pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Trading Plan for the Asian/Europe Session 5.30.2008

General

Currently, of the 4 majors only 1 is in reversal mode and that is cable. The USDJPY came within a few ticks of balancing today but did not so technically it still needs to move down a bit. Both the Euro and the Swiss Franc still have unfinished business. While this is not a reliable indicator, it does lead me to believe we may continue to see some limited dollar strength into the end of the month. Remember, month end is upon us and flows will likely be heavy.



EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5611

Balance 1.5548

Short Target and Reverse 1.5432


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push to balance at 5548. Target 1.5432. Reverse to longs at this level.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and go long to 5611. Reverse to shorts at this level.


USDJPY

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 105.90

Balance 105.25

Short Target and Reverse 104.85


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to at 105.25. Target 105.90. Reverse to short at this level.

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set shorts to 104.85. Reverse back to long at this level.


GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Balanced

Long Target and Reverse 1.9825

Balance 1.9745

Short Target and Reverse 1.9673


BIAS – Stay long above 9745. If price moves below 9745 area then cover. I would not short this pair but aggressive traders can use the 9745 area as a pivot.

If price moves down look to position long at 9673.


USDCHF

Distribution Classification = UnBalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 1.0554

Balance 1.0459

Short Target and Reverse 1.0419

Bias – Look to set up long on a push down to balance at 1.0459 or before. Target 1.0554 and set up shorts at this level.

If we trade down through balance, exit and look to re-set longs at 1.0419.
DRT,

Thanks for your very detailed information. I have a question here:
Should we treat the level "Balance" as "ADV" or "Longest Line" from now?

Trader8686
  • #192
  • May 29, 2008 8:39pm May 29, 2008 8:39pm
Hello DRT,

What's your analysis on AUDUSD?

Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #193
  • May 30, 2008 3:43am May 30, 2008 3:43am
Thanks DRT! Great clarity and looks like marked has played out accordingly so far! E/U fell without reacing the balance point though and wonder if this is significant.

Appreciate updates.

cheers
  • #194
  • May 30, 2008 5:38am May 30, 2008 5:38am
Good morning everyone. Looks like last nights guidance is still okay. Markets are slow waiting for US inflation data.

I will post an update before the 8:00 NA open.

Look to set up on approach areas to the entry levels if you get the chance.
  • #195
  • May 30, 2008 5:40am May 30, 2008 5:40am
Quoting trader8686
DRT,

Thanks for your very detailed information. I have a question here:
Should we treat the level "Balance" as "ADV" or "Longest Line" from now?

Trader8686
The short answer is yes....but be aware that we are trading a different version of price distribution than we were when the thread started. I hope you realize that.

BALANCE = THE BALANCE POINT OF THE DAY'S DISTRIBUTION.

Not the monthly like before. If you just follow the trade plan, I hope it will begin to make sense, but your reasoning is correct.
  • #196
  • May 30, 2008 5:41am May 30, 2008 5:41am
i see usd/jpy got to 105.23 then moved back up to 105.40 area after hanging around at the 105.25 level for awhile. when it does that, it is safe to set longs back to 105.90, right??? as for a push thru the 105.25 level you had set, how far past that level does it have to go to set shorts for the 104 number you had set??? does that mean a close below the 105.25 level???
  • #197
  • May 30, 2008 5:42am May 30, 2008 5:42am
Quoting scyang
Hello DRT,

What's your analysis on AUDUSD?

Thanks.

For what time frame

short term (intaday)
med term (position trade)
long term ( weekly)
  • #198
  • May 30, 2008 5:46am May 30, 2008 5:46am
Quoting IST
Thanks DRT! Great clarity and looks like marked has played out accordingly so far! E/U fell without reacing the balance point though and wonder if this is significant.

Appreciate updates.

cheers
You should think of these levels as areas more than "exact" levels. Selling on the approach to these levels is a sign that we are on the right track. Larger traders do not care about a few points and take advantage of directional flow towards an entry "area". Not an exact point. Never think we are that good at knowing where we should enter on an exact basis.

If you want to be exact, then that is fine but you will miss some fills.

So the answer to your question is.... I do not know
  • #199
  • May 30, 2008 5:53am May 30, 2008 5:53am
Quoting mtrmth
i see usd/jpy got to 105.23 then moved back up to 105.40 area after hanging around at the 105.25 level for awhile. when it does that, it is safe to set longs back to 105.90, right??? as for a push thru the 105.25 level you had set, how far past that level does it have to go to set shorts for the 104 number you had set??? does that mean a close below the 105.25 level???
Right now you should be in perfectly at 105.25. The market is trading up and you should be targeting 105.90. Sounds like you have this working.

Now your question ... when price violates a level like balance. Don't react too quickly. Give it time to fail in other words. Many times, large traders are right on the other side waiting for people who think the market is going to move down, then zap they get caught and the market soars up on short covering.

Learn to give it time, observe, don't put a time frame on it. You will know when you are wrong.

Now if the market, shot thru by 50 points for some reason, then react. Get out.

I hope this makes sense. Learn to be an observer first and a trader second.

Nice job on this trade so far.


USDJPY

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 105.90

Balance 105.25

Short Target and Reverse 104.85


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to at 105.25. Target 105.90. Reverse to short at this level.

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set shorts to 104.85. Reverse back to long at this level
  • #200
  • May 30, 2008 5:56am May 30, 2008 5:56am
Just a heads up, I doubt there will be much change, if any to last nights analysis. We are beginning to make a push toward some entry areas so be alert.
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