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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #621
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:40am Jan 30, 2007 3:40am
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Hi Isotonic,

Interesting points although I don't think Steve uses trailing stops, just stop losses. I am working with a programmer to build an EA with multiple exit strategy so you can stay in the trend. This EA can be used (hopefully) on any charts, to obtain different degrees of return. When & if I get it back in working order and test it I will let you know in the meantime if you know of any EA's that trade this way already, please let me know.

All the Best,

mark
  • #622
  • Jan 30, 2007 4:02am Jan 30, 2007 4:02am
Quoting Isotonic
hi steve,

i don't wish to hijack your thread (for too long) but you make some interesting points worth commenting on, since i've run across similar problems. i'll comment on them as you bring them up.

i agree that trailing stops are the way to go! most traders (including most pros) cut their profits far too early either manually or with take profits. however there is still a dilemma of when to exit. trailing stops can take that decision away from you and let the market decide, so that is also one technique i use.

however i find that a multiple exit strategy is best. if you compare my recent chart with the one you posted you can see them in action. i also look at the bar patterns of a recent rally, so at the first point of consolidation or reversal i may exit manually rather than trail my stop. a point you made earlier was to always wait for your stop to be hit before deciding again. i still have that option of course but i will look to override if the pattern doesn't feel right. if that happens and the trend is still up i will place stop orders above recent highs or lows in these areas (arrows on charts). these roughly compare to "exhaustion" areas you've circled. so if the market is still up i should get filled. this way i still take profit and stay in the trend hopefully.

also once the major trend is over (close outside trend line) i will exit all positions, and normally some kind of consolidation period will form that i will watch and look for breaks. it's amazing how many times you will see trendlines->consolidation->breakout->new trend->consolidation... etc

your journal has been like a breath of fresh air around FF recently - best by miles. it's certainly challenged my thinking as well!

i will try not to intrude too much, let me know if i'm being a pain in the a**!!!
I think using an ATR based stop is effective. It seems to keep you in the winning trades much longer.

The USD/CAD has been the worst performing pair so far in this journal but using an ATR based stop multiplied by 2 or 3 this trade would still be active since late November.

I agree that Steve's journal has been the best by miles - for its simplicity, consistency and logic. The only thing I would change would be the use of ATR based stops but hey it's Steve's party

Good luck on your journey...

Monaco
  • #623
  • Jan 30, 2007 5:04am Jan 30, 2007 5:04am
i`m fairly new to the forex world,this is my 1st ever post on any forum,but i`m fascinated by this thread + wd like to thank steviet + all other contributors.
i know that monaco`s suggestion is his + not steviet`s but is it ok to ask monaco to give an example of how i would find the ATR (i know wht ths means) of a currency pair + then place a stop as he suggests?

many thanks,
magicarpet.
  • #624
  • Jan 30, 2007 5:13am Jan 30, 2007 5:13am
Quoting magicarpet
i`m fairly new to the forex world,this is my 1st ever post on any forum,but i`m fascinated by this thread + wd like to thank steviet + all other contributors.
i know that monaco`s suggestion is his + not steviet`s but is it ok to ask monaco to give an example of how i would find the ATR (i know wht ths means) of a currency pair + then place a stop as he suggests?

many thanks,
magicarpet.
Most charting packages have an ATR indicator. Some charting packages allow you to add a multiple to the ATR and then it plots this line on the chart. This line becomes your trailing stop.

Example with USD/CAD: Nov 14 Long trade at 1.1379. Calculating the ATR over the previous 10 days multiplying it by 3 calculates a stop loss of 1.1195. As this pair has gone up so as the ATR stop loss. Presently this pair is trading at 1.1840 and the ATR based stop is at 1.1663.

Hope that helps.

Monaco
  • #625
  • Jan 30, 2007 5:27am Jan 30, 2007 5:27am
monaco,
helps greatly. appreciate your time.
magicarpet.
  • #626
  • Jan 30, 2007 10:42am Jan 30, 2007 10:42am
Quoting Monaco
Most charting packages have an ATR indicator. Some charting packages allow you to add a multiple to the ATR and then it plots this line on the chart. This line becomes your trailing stop.

Example with USD/CAD: Nov 14 Long trade at 1.1379. Calculating the ATR over the previous 10 days multiplying it by 3 calculates a stop loss of 1.1195. As this pair has gone up so as the ATR stop loss. Presently this pair is trading at 1.1840 and the ATR based stop is at 1.1663.

Hope that helps.

Monaco
Hi Monaco,
I use also an ATR as stop loss, but never seen the one you mention which allows you to add a multiple to the ATR and plots the line... Sounds handy.
Would you mind posting this indicator here?
Thanks to you and to Steve's wonderfull thread.
  • #627
  • Jan 30, 2007 10:59am Jan 30, 2007 10:59am
Quoting schmurex
Hi Monaco,
I use also an ATR as stop loss, but never seen the one you mention which allows you to add a multiple to the ATR and plots the line... Sounds handy.
Would you mind posting this indicator here?
Thanks to you and to Steve's wonderfull thread.
I don't have the indicator for metatrader to be able to post it unfortunately but I am sure that one must exist for mt4 and if not it probably would be easy to create.
  • #628
  • Jan 30, 2007 11:34am Jan 30, 2007 11:34am
You can download the ATR stops indicator from the thread " The BAT....a Strategy by Team Aphid" started by diallist.

It is posted on page 3 post 35
Regards
  • #629
  • Jan 30, 2007 12:59pm Jan 30, 2007 12:59pm
My oh my

I've been out on a course all day for work so have just got back & will go through your posts later.

GBPUSD stopped out for plus 65 pips, USDCHF for minus 33 pips & EURUSD for minus 22 pips.

USDCAD & USDJPY still active so will re-enter the others tonight. I see USDCHF just touched my s/l as did EURUSD but there we go lol.

Total Pip Gain For Jan 07: plus 701 pips
Cumulative Since Nov 06: plus 2033 pips

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #630
  • Jan 30, 2007 1:42pm Jan 30, 2007 1:42pm
Hi magicarpet & Traex - welcome to the journal

Thanks Monaco & Isotonic for your comments - I'm happy for any suggestions to better my system but I'm sticking with what I know for now. If it ain't broke don't fix it

However, if anyone wants to take my idea and trade their version live for a period of testing it would be interesting to see it improved further.

New trade decisions on EU, GU & UCHF are looking a little tricky at the mo but still have another couple of hours to make my decision

By the way, my UCAD is currently minus 10 but just as I got in from work it went 1 pip into profit - is the tide turning???

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #631
  • Jan 30, 2007 2:43pm Jan 30, 2007 2:43pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Evening Steve... Bad day at the office today... how does that compare to previous bad days you have had.
Just as bad as my footy team tonight.... Getting stuffed!
I agree, some tough decisions later... I will deal with it then..
  • #632
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:09pm Jan 30, 2007 3:09pm
Question for you.

Will you be looking at the Monthly Candle for GBP/USD when you make your decision for your Daily evaluation/trade status?

Can you please elaborate on the Monthly Candle formation which closes tomorrow?

Thanks a bunch!
  • #633
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:19pm Jan 30, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting markt
Evening Steve... Bad day at the office today... how does that compare to previous bad days you have had.
Just as bad as my footy team tonight.... Getting stuffed!
I agree, some tough decisions later... I will deal with it then..
So, is it West Ham or Fulham? I see they're both losing 2-0.

Today's closed trades are actually plus 10 pips so not too bad here. Pretty early on I had a day where I lost about 185 pips & another day lost just over 120 pips. That's about as big a drawdown as I've encountered thus far.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #634
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:30pm Jan 30, 2007 3:30pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Thanks for that Steve.... Unfortunately Fulham... 15 mins to go, so I can live in hope! Closed trades I am down 2 pips only today, but the open trades picture is none to pretty... Hoping to wake up tomorrow to sunshine. I think that we will get some clearer headway after fed decision...

I have the utmost confidence it will turn around.
  • #635
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:33pm Jan 30, 2007 3:33pm
Quoting monarch
Question for you.

Will you be looking at the Monthly Candle for GBP/USD when you make your decision for your Daily evaluation/trade status?

Can you please elaborate on the Monthly Candle formation which closes tomorrow?

Thanks a bunch!
I'm favouring taking another short on GU tonight after we've virtually ended the day where we started. I would favour another test of 9555 tomorrow on good US data but it's one of the more difficult calls I've had to make.

Out of my 701 pip profit so far this month, 605 of those are with GU so I may be due for a duff trade lol.

I've attached a monthly chart for GU - in January, we have seen a higher high & lower low but the price is currently only 40 pips away from Jan 1st price. It would appear that the run may be exhausting or at least consolidating but it needs to break that support at 9555 or thereabouts.

Kind Regards
Steve
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  • #636
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:38pm Jan 30, 2007 3:38pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
I agree short on GU.... usd/chf is a little more tricky...
Any thoughts? I am tending to think going short just edges it..
Could turn around if fed increase rates... but that would be great news on shorting GU
  • #637
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:39pm Jan 30, 2007 3:39pm
Quoting markt
Thanks for that Steve.... Unfortunately Fulham... 15 mins to go, so I can live in hope! Closed trades I am down 2 pips only today, but the open trades picture is none to pretty... Hoping to wake up tomorrow to sunshine. I think that we will get some clearer headway after fed decision...

I have the utmost confidence it will turn around.
You're probably not old enough but I remember when Georgie Best & Rodney Marsh played on the hallowed turf at Craven Cottage

I think my system suits those like me that can't watch their trades all day - it's really a set & forget, peek if you dare then move the stop losses at 10pm

I don't know if I could stand it watching the trades all day - I've done it on the odd day holiday & I think the rest of my hair would turn white pretty quick lol. I really respect any day trader that can make pips consistently - I don't know if I could.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #638
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:47pm Jan 30, 2007 3:47pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
I grabbed 98 pips today trading when I could today in demo H1 charts... working on a little system myself and hoping my contact in USA can give it back to me in EA form by the weekend? we shall see..

I have seen the Fulham videos... I try and go when I can, shocking result tonight, but Colemans fault, he changed a winning team and I am no fan of that technique unless forced to...
  • #639
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:48pm Jan 30, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting markt
I agree short on GU.... usd/chf is a little more tricky...
Any thoughts? I am tending to think going short just edges it..
Could turn around if fed increase rates... but that would be great news on shorting GU
Looking at the charts, uchf is also a hard call - however if eu goes down, which it will on strong us news, uchf will rise.

Again, please please please don't anyone take this as a recommendation -it's your money not mine.
  • #640
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:55pm Jan 30, 2007 3:55pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
My D1 still shows a buy on usd/chf so I will trade the indicator here and blame that if its wrong!! he he
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