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  • #161
  • May 29, 2008 6:37am May 29, 2008 6:37am
Q1 GDP at 8:30. Prepare for volatility and use it to position properly.
  • #162
  • May 29, 2008 6:47am May 29, 2008 6:47am
THAT IS WHAT I AM WAITING FOR. i have not been feeling well lately and i have been needing extra sleep. i missed the move up last night, but i am looking for movement today.

do you have an idea where the market will go after the gdp release, or will the details make that a bit more difficult call until all the info gets out?? then there is jobless claims tomorrow, so we may get some whipsaw action.

i have work to deal with around 9 til early afternoon, so i will miss the euro close and most of the u.s. session, but i intend to do some trading the rest of taoday and tomorrow. i would appreciate your calls for the asain and euro sessions for tomorrow. i would also like to be able to set up the charts you use. is the setup and the site you use in the first page of posts???

thanks
  • #163
  • May 29, 2008 6:56am May 29, 2008 6:56am
Quoting mtrmth
THAT IS WHAT I AM WAITING FOR. i have not been feeling well lately and i have been needing extra sleep. i missed the move up last night, but i am looking for movement today.

do you have an idea where the market will go after the gdp release, or will the details make that a bit more difficult call until all the info gets out?? then there is jobless claims tomorrow, so we may get some whipsaw action.

i have work to deal with around 9 til early afternoon, so i will miss the euro close and most of the u.s. session, but i intend to do some trading the rest of taoday and tomorrow. i would appreciate your calls for the asain and euro sessions for tomorrow. i would also like to be able to set up the charts you use. is the setup and the site you use in the first page of posts???

thanks
Sorry to hear you are under the weather.

I do not use any charts. Only price, time and sales. What you could do is draw horizontal lines on your charts with the levels I give. Sorry.

As far as knowing where it will go, I have no idea. Never will. I go with what I know for know and that is our current levels.

I will post updated levels about 8:15.
  • #164
  • May 29, 2008 7:04am May 29, 2008 7:04am
ok, thanks for the info. will have to get those levels in. alot of people are getting sick around here where i live, i think it has to do with the late spring we are expieriencing, everyone still cooped up inside. finally can get into my garden, but i think i lost half of what i planted. i will feel better when i make 5,000 pips this month!!!
  • #165
  • May 29, 2008 7:08am May 29, 2008 7:08am
NAA Open revisions...

If you are already in a trade, use these levels as your targets. Otherwise, play these levels either long or short and target the other level. Enter at whichever the market gives you first.

E/U - BIAS DOWN

EURO HAS BALANCED YESTERDAY'S DOWN GOAL OF 5564

Short - 5620
Long - 5502

G/U - BIAS DOWN

RISK - CABLE HAS NOT FILLED YESTERDAY'S UP GOAL AT 9853

SHORT - 9795
LONG - 9651

U/J - BALANCED

YEN HAS NOW FILLED YESTERDAY'S UP GOAL AT 105.34

SHORT - 105.20
LONG - 104.48

U/C - BIAS DOWN

SHORT - 1.0444
LONG - 1.0330
  • #166
  • May 29, 2008 7:19am May 29, 2008 7:19am
I am beginning to see that it may be an advantage for you if I post levels at the close of the NA session (after 5:00 PM) and at the open of the NA session (8:00 AM) and then update as we progress.



I monitor levels in real time so they fluctuate frequently as the day develops. Once we hit the NA session, the distribution is fairly well developed so the updates are not as frequent. I will keep an eye on this. Good luck today.
  • #167
  • Edited 8:20am May 29, 2008 7:20am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
NAA Open revisions...

If you are already in a trade, use these levels as your targets. Otherwise, play these levels either long or short and target the other level. Enter at whichever the market gives you first.

E/U - BIAS DOWN

EURO HAS BALANCED YESTERDAY'S DOWN GOAL OF 5564

Short - 5620
Long - 5502

G/U - BIAS DOWN

RISK - CABLE HAS NOT FILLED YESTERDAY'S UP GOAL AT 9853

SHORT - 9795
LONG - 9651

U/J - BALANCED

YEN HAS NOW FILLED YESTERDAY'S UP GOAL AT 105.34

SHORT - 105.20
LONG - 104.48

U/C - BIAS DOWN

SHORT - 1.0444
LONG - 1.0330
DRT,

How do you think to add just one more here: G/J? Please?

Trader8686
  • #168
  • May 29, 2008 7:41am May 29, 2008 7:41am
So far the volatility is low. This is good for this method as it works best when the market is NOT trending.
  • #169
  • May 29, 2008 7:58am May 29, 2008 7:58am
DRT, many thanks for an interesting and thoughts provoking thread. I have to say that even though I do not fully understand what your trading principles are, it is still fascinating to trace your forecasts. A good example is cable, which just does not want to go down, even though i do not see any major fundamental or technical reasons that would push it up.

Regards, R

Quoting DownRiverTrader
NAA Open revisions...

...

G/U - BIAS DOWN

RISK - CABLE HAS NOT FILLED YESTERDAY'S UP GOAL AT 9853

SHORT - 9795
LONG - 9651
  • #170
  • May 29, 2008 8:16am May 29, 2008 8:16am
My theory in short term trading is not to forecast or predict. It is pointless. The beauty of this method is that it takes exactly "what is known" in the market for any given session and positions accordingly using nothing but price, time and sales.
  • #171
  • May 29, 2008 8:25am May 29, 2008 8:25am
Here are today's balance points as of now. You should make a space for these on your plan when I post them.

E/U - 1.5575
G/U - 1.9743 - Cable is perfectly balanced.
U/J - 104.91
U/C - 1.0399


I do not enter trades at these levels intra-session, but they can be used to take profits on trades from the extremes if it is slow.

I am not in any trades at this time, although I understand some of you may be from previous level posting.
  • #172
  • May 29, 2008 8:36am May 29, 2008 8:36am
Maybe a good time to re-read this post I made yesterday....

Quoting DownRiverTrader
Do you think markets trend most of the time or do you think they range trade most of the time? While this may sound like a simple question on the surface, it is not and understanding the answer can be a key to your success in taking profits from the market. I read a study once that analyzed this question and I was shocked when I saw the results.

Markets only trend about 6% of the time, the rest of the time is used to build value or range trade. So 94% of the time markets, all markets, are ranging between accepted value. The exact percentages are not important here. The conclusion is the important part - Markets rarely trend. Don't take my word for it. Set up a study of your own and draw your own conclusions. Think about it this way...there are thousands of traders in your market and for the market to trend on any given time period the majority of those traders have to be thinking the same way. What are the odds that this will occur?
Why is this piece of knowledge critical? If you are designing a trading methodology do you think it is more advantageous to design a method that capitalizes on range trading or one that is designed to catch trends? There is no right answer, but for me there is much more profit in being good at identifying ranges. Most importantly, I "expect" markets to range, not trend. I find I am right more often than not and this has helped me greatly over the years to have a successful business.

So practice identifying ranges in the time frame that suits your style. This is why I focus on price distribution. It is my edge and allows me to exploit what other traders do not know yet.

I expect my markets to range trade. If they trend, I am wrong. 9 times out of 10 I am right. Something to think about.
  • #173
  • May 29, 2008 8:41am May 29, 2008 8:41am
Right now, we are trading at yesterday's session range lows in EUR.
  • #174
  • May 29, 2008 10:17am May 29, 2008 10:17am
DRT for those who got short at 105.37 in usd/yen ..where would you put a stop
  • #175
  • May 29, 2008 10:26am May 29, 2008 10:26am
Quoting 3jjj
DRT for those who got short at 105.37 in usd/yen ..where would you put a stop
I think we may have about 30 more ticks to go beyond that. Might be best to cover.
  • #176
  • May 29, 2008 10:34am May 29, 2008 10:34am
U/J

Long Reversal now at 104.36

E/U

Long Reversal now at 1.5460
  • #177
  • May 29, 2008 10:45am May 29, 2008 10:45am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Do you think markets trend most of the time or do you think they range trade most of the time? While this may sound like a simple question on the surface, it is not and understanding the answer can be a key to your success in taking profits from the market. I read a study once that analyzed this question and I was shocked when I saw the results.

Markets only trend about 6% of the time, the rest of the time is used to build value or range trade. So 94% of the time markets, all markets, are ranging between accepted value. The exact percentages are not important here. The conclusion is the important part - Markets rarely trend. Don't take my word for it. Set up a study of your own and draw your own conclusions. Think about it this way...there are thousands of traders in your market and for the market to trend on any given time period the majority of those traders have to be thinking the same way. What are the odds that this will occur?
Why is this piece of knowledge critical? If you are designing a trading methodology do you think it is more advantageous to design a method that capitalizes on range trading or one that is designed to catch trends? There is no right answer, but for me there is much more profit in being good at identifying ranges. Most importantly, I "expect" markets to range, not trend. I find I am right more often than not and this has helped me greatly over the years to have a successful business.

So practice identifying ranges in the time frame that suits your style. This is why I focus on price distribution. It is my edge and allows me to exploit what other traders do not know yet.

I expect my markets to range trade. If they trend, I am wrong. 9 times out of 10 I am right. Something to think about.
I am very interested in your method, but I, as of yet, can't say I understand. When you say "market trends", do you mean prices move? I don't understand what you mean by market rarely trends because I see the prices move all the time, by the second. As an example, today eurusd moved about 150 pips between its high and low. Do you refer to the day-to-day movements? If the market doesn't trend, the pairs would be remaining in the same place or within very narrow ranges, which is obviously not true.

If I want to follow your method, where do I find the information on the volumes you are talking about, in order to predict the balancinig points.

Thanks in advance.

scyang
Expected the unexpected
  • #178
  • May 29, 2008 10:51am May 29, 2008 10:51am
Quoting scyang
I am very interested in your method, but I, as of yet, can't say I understand. When you say "market trends", do you mean prices move? I don't understand what you mean by market rarely trends because I see the prices move all the time, by the second. As an example, today eurusd moved about 150 pips between its high and low. Do you refer to the day-to-day movements? If the market doesn't trend, the pairs would be remaining in the same place or within very narrow ranges, which is obviously not true.

If I want to follow your method, where do I find the information on the volumes you are talking about, in order to predict the balancinig points.

Thanks in advance.

scyang
To me (and it is different for you) I mean sustained moves out of established ranges. Yes the range is large, but I play the range both ways.

Again, I trade futures on the CME Globex platform. I pay for the data.
You can visit www.cme.com
  • #179
  • May 29, 2008 11:02am May 29, 2008 11:02am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
To me (and it is different for you) I mean sustained moves out of established ranges. Yes the range is large, but I play the range both ways.

Again, I trade futures on the CME Globex platform. I pay for the data.
You can visit www.cme.com
I would like to adopt your method because I see that it might be superior to others. Earlier you advised somebody who was short on usdjpy to cover. Obviously you detect that it's unbalanced. Could you explain more? Where do you see balance to be, i.e. where do you think usdjpy to go before it starts going down? Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #180
  • May 29, 2008 11:03am May 29, 2008 11:03am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
U/J

Long Reversal now at 104.36

E/U

Long Reversal now at 1.5460
can you clear this for me
you will not short usd/yen but wait to buy at 104.36???
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