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  • #121
  • May 28, 2008 1:17pm May 28, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting trader8686
DRT,

When you metioned: It needs to close above/below ......
Is it Hourly bar or Daily bar usually?


trader8686
_____________________
Just always love to learn
For this particular short term method, I use sessions. So the short answer is daily bars with a NA close. There are a couple ways to handle it.

Let's take the EURO for instance.Not sure where it is going to close yetb but likely it will not make it up to 5663 level. Here is what my post would look like for tonight....

For tonight until well into the European session tommorrow these are the key levels for the E/U

1.5663 Balance
1.5566 Low

What often happens is that price will gravitate towards balance after the NA session is over. Of course, if there are stops out there then that is not always the case.

I would have two choices.

1. I would cover my trade at the end of the day if it does not close above 5663. Then I would use the two levels, balance and low and if price does make it to these levels, I would set trades.

2. The other option is to hold your trade and see if it works up toward balance at 1.5663. If it does, you would exit your long and set shorts with a target of 1.5566. If it moves below the daily low early in Asia then just close it and wait. If it moves lower, wait until (if of course) it reaches the low projection of 5566. If it does, then set longs with a target toward balance at 5663. Basically, whatever the market gives you first, take it.

I will likely hold the Euro long even if it does not make it up to balance by the end of the day. Most of the downside in the EURO seems to have come from the crosses today.

Clear as mud, right?
  • #122
  • May 28, 2008 1:29pm May 28, 2008 1:29pm
As a matter of fact, it is VERY clear. Thanks a lot!
  • #123
  • May 28, 2008 1:30pm May 28, 2008 1:30pm
Basically, the EURO as an example, is that today's price distribution is UNBALANCED DOWN. This means that based on the high we put in, the low has not been satisfied. Since the EURO did not complete its reversal today and move above balance, then I am still bearish until this occurs. So if it were to close above the distribution balance, it would cancel my downside view. Even though I am holding long right now, I am still bearish for the next move.

If you recall from an earlier post, I mentioned that I trade futures this way. I am not trading spot. I am just translating the values for you guys. AT 3:00 the IMM (CME FUTURES) closes. So futures sort of have a 3:00 EST close and I always wait until the volume from that has passed so I can make a decision on what to do.
  • #124
  • May 28, 2008 1:47pm May 28, 2008 1:47pm
Is anyone interested in the info for Asia, Europe. If not, I will just post values when I get them early tommorrow morning for tommorrows session. Not sure where everyone lives in the world or if you are a tradeaholic like me.
  • #125
  • May 28, 2008 2:04pm May 28, 2008 2:04pm
I would recommend you close all the trades for today.

Nice profit in the G/U and U/J. Small loss in E/U.

Let's try again tommorrow.
  • #126
  • May 28, 2008 2:35pm May 28, 2008 2:35pm
DRT,

I know you had lots of posts and answered too many questions. If you still have energy left could you post the London session values (at least for the GU, EU, UJ, and USD/CHF).

another thing. are we going to see the past charts again? and for you when does the NY session starts. when the CME opens?at what time?

you have a friend here. Tradeaholic as well.

Txs again for everything.

TG
  • #127
  • Edited 4:45pm May 28, 2008 4:19pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Basically, the EURO as an example, is that today's price distribution is UNBALANCED DOWN. This means that based on the high we put in, the low has not been satisfied. Since the EURO did not complete its reversal today and move above balance, then I am still bearish until this occurs. So if it were to close above the distribution balance, it would cancel my downside view. Even though I am holding long right now, I am still bearish for the next move.

If you recall from an earlier post, I mentioned that I trade futures this way. I am not trading spot. I am just translating the values for you guys. AT 3:00 the IMM (CME FUTURES) closes. So futures sort of have a 3:00 EST close and I always wait until the volume from that has passed so I can make a decision on what to do.
Will you reveal on your future trading strategy?
Love to receive that education, although not in a hurry, not to make you burned up. Information bit by bit as we learned from your current posts would be nice.
  • #128
  • May 28, 2008 6:47pm May 28, 2008 6:47pm
Quoting trader8686
Will you reveal on your future trading strategy?
Love to receive that education, although not in a hurry, not to make you burned up. Information bit by bit as we learned from your current posts would be nice.

I am revealing it here as we talk. The futures strategy is the same as the session strategy for Forex. They are one and the same.

The entire strategy is based on price distribution of a daily session. Working the distribution curve from balance point or longet line to top and bottom. The key here is that futures gives me the volume. What I do is covert it and apply it to Forex for you guys. I only trade the futures but I realize most here do not.

If a curve is out of balance I look for it to balance. Reversals are based on extremes and the fact that most of the time markets range, they don't trend. Let me post a thought from my old blog.
  • #129
  • May 28, 2008 6:53pm May 28, 2008 6:53pm
Do you think markets trend most of the time or do you think they range trade most of the time? While this may sound like a simple question on the surface, it is not and understanding the answer can be a key to your success in taking profits from the market. I read a study once that analyzed this question and I was shocked when I saw the results.

Markets only trend about 6% of the time, the rest of the time is used to build value or range trade. So 94% of the time markets, all markets, are ranging between accepted value. The exact percentages are not important here. The conclusion is the important part - Markets rarely trend. Don't take my word for it. Set up a study of your own and draw your own conclusions. Think about it this way...there are thousands of traders in your market and for the market to trend on any given time period the majority of those traders have to be thinking the same way. What are the odds that this will occur?
Why is this piece of knowledge critical? If you are designing a trading methodology do you think it is more advantageous to design a method that capitalizes on range trading or one that is designed to catch trends? There is no right answer, but for me there is much more profit in being good at identifying ranges. Most importantly, I "expect" markets to range, not trend. I find I am right more often than not and this has helped me greatly over the years to have a successful business.

So practice identifying ranges in the time frame that suits your style. This is why I focus on price distribution. It is my edge and allows me to exploit what other traders do not know yet.

I expect my markets to range trade. If they trend, I am wrong. 9 times out of 10 I am right. Something to think about.
  • #130
  • May 28, 2008 7:51pm May 28, 2008 7:51pm
Thanks DRT for this great post and this great thread.

Keep up the good work. For you when does the NY session officially starts?

and would the past charts appear again?

and the Europe session values will be a great asset. to keep learning. just for the majors.

TG
  • #131
  • May 28, 2008 7:52pm May 28, 2008 7:52pm
I will not be trading until the Eurpean session. Will try to get back on the air as soon as I get my 3:00 AM coffee and get things together.

Trading Ideas for the Asian/Europe Session 5.29.2008

EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5716

Balance 1.5662

Short Target and Reverse 1.5564


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push above balance at 5662. Target 1.5564. Reverse to long and target 1.5562.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and set shorts at 5716. Target balance at 5662.


USDJPY

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 105.34

Balance 104.61

Short Target and Reverse 103.91


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push below balance at 104.61. Target 105.34. Reverse to short and target 104.61

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set longs at 103.91. Target balance at 104.61.


GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 1.9853

Balance 1.9778

Short Target and Reverse 1.9729


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to balance at 9778. Target 9853. Reverse to short and target 9778.

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set longs at 9729. Target balance at 9778


USDCHF

Distribution Classification = Sidelines
  • #132
  • May 28, 2008 8:09pm May 28, 2008 8:09pm
drt, i will trade any time i can, so if you want to make any comments or trading updates, i will check back from time to time. i do appreciate all your your posts, my learning is a continuous process and i do appreciate all of your knowledge and thoughts.
  • #133
  • May 28, 2008 10:49pm May 28, 2008 10:49pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I will not be trading until the Eurpean session. Will try to get back on the air as soon as I get my 3:00 AM coffee and get things together.

Trading Ideas for the Asian/Europe Session 5.29.2008

EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5716

Balance 1.5662

Short Target and Reverse 1.5564


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push above balance at 5662. Target 1.5564. Reverse to long and target 1.5562.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and set shorts at 5716. Target balance at 5662.


USDJPY

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 105.34

Balance 104.61

Short Target and Reverse 103.91


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push below balance at 104.61. Target 105.34. Reverse to short and target 104.61

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set longs at 103.91. Target balance at 104.61.


GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 1.9853

Balance 1.9778

Short Target and Reverse 1.9729


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to balance at 9778. Target 9853. Reverse to short and target 9778.

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set longs at 9729. Target balance at 9778


USDCHF

Distribution Classification = Sidelines
It's a bit surprising to see that you are holding downward bias for eurusd. You have been calling for long. Could you please expand your thoughts a bit more? Have you exited your long position? If you have already mentioned it in previous postings, I apologize.
Expected the unexpected
  • #134
  • Edited 1:28am May 29, 2008 1:08am | Edited 1:28am
Hi DRT...

Here is my analysis for EU
Daily SD -1 (1.5600) is critical point for me now... if the price pass this level Daily SD -2 or Weekly SD -1 will be the target (1.5333).. maximum Monthly SD -1 (1.5495).

If the price could not break Daily SD -1 (1.5600)... Daily ADV (1.5667), Weekly ADV (1.5688) and Monthly ADV (1.5717) could be the next target

KG

http://i32.tinypic.com/2dtndpk.gif
  • #135
  • Edited 2:29am May 29, 2008 2:28am | Edited 2:29am
Hey Kang_Gun,

How do you determine your levels? Manually or with an indicator in metatrader?

I'm using the PD indicators but can't get them to get the same levels as DRT.

Also what indicator is the KG Trend thing you have?

Cheers
  • #136
  • May 29, 2008 2:44am May 29, 2008 2:44am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I will not be trading until the Eurpean session. Will try to get back on the air as soon as I get my 3:00 AM coffee and get things together.

Trading Ideas for the Asian/Europe Session 5.29.2008

EURUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down

Long Target and Reverse 1.5716

Balance 1.5662

Short Target and Reverse 1.5564


BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push above balance at 5662. Target 1.5564. Reverse to long and target 1.5562.

If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and set shorts at 5716. Target balance at 5662.


USDJPY

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 105.34

Balance 104.61

Short Target and Reverse 103.91


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push below balance at 104.61. Target 105.34. Reverse to short and target 104.61

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set longs at 103.91. Target balance at 104.61.


GBPUSD

Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up

Long Target and Reverse 1.9853

Balance 1.9778

Short Target and Reverse 1.9729


BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to balance at 9778. Target 9853. Reverse to short and target 9778.

If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set longs at 9729. Target balance at 9778


USDCHF

Distribution Classification = Sidelines

Good morning everyone. Updates as my coffee gets going.



EUR - I see the Euro did move down and has hit our reversal level. If you are long already, stay long.If you did not set longs yet, then you can catch a short on any pullbacks to 5606 or better and target the new reversal level

Updated E/U - Reverse to long at 5546. Current target 5648
  • #137
  • May 29, 2008 2:49am May 29, 2008 2:49am
G/U - Set shorts above 9721. Target new reversal level at 9625.


Updated E/U - Reverse to long at 9625.
  • #138
  • May 29, 2008 2:56am May 29, 2008 2:56am
U/J - Working out perfectly. If you are long stay long and watch the target area from last nights posting.

New traders can set longs at 104.89 or better and target the new dynamic reversal level of 105.18. (will adjust upward if we do move up)
  • #139
  • May 29, 2008 3:00am May 29, 2008 3:00am
Swissy Traders

U/CHF - Set Longs at 1.0400 or better. Target reversal level of 1.0436 and look to set shorts.
  • #140
  • May 29, 2008 3:03am May 29, 2008 3:03am
E/U reverse to long at 9625? typo ? btw good thread DRT.

Quoting DownRiverTrader
G/U - Set shorts above 9721. Target new reversal level at 9625.


Updated E/U - Reverse to long at 9625.
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