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  • #61
  • May 27, 2008 4:16pm May 27, 2008 4:16pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting DownRiverTrader
AJ - This is a tough one for me.

We are currently trading at the monthly longest line around 99.23. This area reflects consensus value for this pair. A move up from this level will target 101.03. Notice the unbalance top of this monthly curve. It is a shelf almost which indicated there is some HEAVY supply in the market at these upper levels.

I would be on the sidelines with this pair until it moves to the next level and builds value. My bias is for a move down towards ADV but it is not clear. Aggressive traders can play shorts below current levels for a move down to ADV.

Make a note to ask me about this after another day of trading and let's take a look.
Hi DRT
Aj has to me closed the day or the players on the long side, has your view settle in favour of the bull or the bear.

MPP
  • #62
  • May 27, 2008 5:33pm May 27, 2008 5:33pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I have the EURO making a daily low around 5673. I expect price MAY reverse at this level. If we reach this level (or very close) then I will add to my longs.

Not sure if you saw my post on risk but it is back a few spaces. I do not consider my view wrong yet. It is too early. Let's see how the day settles before we make a decision to abandon longs.

MAKE A NOTE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS

Here's what you may see. As the European markets draw towards close. Use 11:00 AM EST... then I expect a push toward the session direction so the movers and shakers can take their profit. This is certainly not a rule, but will happen frequently. Remember, the European session holds the bulk of Forex volume. Always keep you eye on the European closing hours. Right now all the intraday traders are shorting on the pullback and will try to push it on down.


By the way....if you feel like you are going to throw up then that means it is NOT time to exit yet. Whenever you feel like you are going to throw up then these are the best trades. Add to your longs.
Wow man. My swing low is 1.5672, off by a pip. Very impressive. What are your level readings now? It seems as though things are shifting to the downside temporarily so I've moved some of my TP's closer...throw up feeling brewing, but not bad at all. I'm trying to take profits at 1.5760 (opened at 1.5700) and 1.5790 (bad entry last week at 1.5789) if it gets there next session.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #63
  • May 27, 2008 6:31pm May 27, 2008 6:31pm
Quoting ah_nen
Hi DRT, Do you mind to comment on current EURJPY position? appreciate it buddy
ah nen - Not much happened today so the previous posting is still valid. 163.61 level is holding price. Its either up or down from here. I am still bias to a move down in the near term.

I copied the prior comments....

EURJPY is trading just above Value[+1] at 163.61. It has made a nice advance through up from ADV. You can see on the chart that this was a good level to set longs. The zone 1 distribution is well developed, but I think this pair favors range trading between163.61 back to ADV at 161.19.

Look to set shorts into 163.61. Target ADV at 161.19. I would look to set longs at this level again for a move back up to 163.61.

If we stay above 163.61, then look to set longs for the next level of 166.04. Exit here and observe.
  • #64
  • May 27, 2008 6:50pm May 27, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting MPP
Hi DRT
Aj has to me closed the day or the players on the long side, has your view settle in favour of the bull or the bear.

MPP
Well things really haven't changed much. I will say that we worked value around the longest line to at 99.30 area.

I still do not favor an entry in this area. I would rather see this pair trade up to 101.03 or down to 98.40 before establishing a position.

Aggressive traders could use the 99.30 area as a pivot and go with it either way. Bottom line is that I would be on the sidelines until something happens.

Sometimes the best position you can take is no position at all.

Good luck.
  • #65
  • May 27, 2008 7:07pm May 27, 2008 7:07pm
Lots of folks asking about EURUSD.

Today saw the EURO breakdown ADV at 5817. We settled about 30 or so points below this level. Not extremely significant, but I think it best to exit longs at this point. I am still bullish this pair for now, I would like to see another session or so of trading before making a decision to be bearish. If you look at the distribution curve, you can see that it may attempt to fill in or balance in the Value Area [-1] section.

WIth that said, you can either sit on the sidelines or range trade the level below ADV.

Look to set shorts on a push back up into 5717. Target 1.5566. Exit here and observe.

Any sustained move above 5717 and I would exit and look to set longs back down at 5717 and target 5820/35 again.

If we do move down to 1.5566, then we will look to set longs back up to ADV at 5717.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.28.2008.PNG
  • #66
  • May 27, 2008 8:28pm May 27, 2008 8:28pm
Hello DRT,

I wanted to ask you. do you consider your strategy a daily strategy. I am trying to understand how you analyze the price action/distribution. do you wait till the end of the Ny session, and then think of what happened and make a trading plan for the next day?

Txs in advance,

TG
  • #67
  • May 27, 2008 8:53pm May 27, 2008 8:53pm
Quoting tennisguy
Hello DRT,

I wanted to ask you. do you consider your strategy a daily strategy. I am trying to understand how you analyze the price action/distribution. do you wait till the end of the Ny session, and then think of what happened and make a trading plan for the next day?

Txs in advance,

TG
No. If I had to classify my trading, I would call it position trading. I am only concerned with value levels. Sort of like stepping through a grid from one level to the next. I don't care if it take 30 minutes or a week to get from one level to the next. Time is not the issue, price is the issue.

As far as how I do it.....remember this is a monthly chart. Although my levels do change, it is not that often may 10-15 times a year at best. I do carefully watch what happens at the end of a session though, and I consider the North American session the close, really after about 12:00 it is usually pretty dead here. So I am always watching what happens within my value levels.

I want to mention that I also trade very short term also. My style is similar, but I base my decisions on each day from session to session. I still use price distribution but I do not actually use any charts. Just the matrix trader that comes in TS. Here I consider myself an intraday holder. I can't discuss this in a forum like this becuase it is too much work and changes so often. On these positions I almost exclusively trade futures on CME's globex. I would much rather trade futures for the volume, time and sales info.

Here's a shot of the matrix for the Euro Futures. The green bars are volume traded at each price level and plotted horizontally. Look familiar?? It is a bell curve.

Right now I am short EC and looking to reverse to longs at 5640.

http://morrisfunds.squarespace.com/s...sts/matrix.PNG
  • #68
  • May 27, 2008 9:14pm May 27, 2008 9:14pm
Hi DRT,

Fascinated by your methods, intraday with no charts, mind expanding stuff.

Thanks for offering your skills to others, I wondered if you could look at G/J for me, at a critical juncture some might say, price these last few days hasn't been the best guide. Also, and only if its not inconvenient, are you still bullish E/U, and what are your thoughts on the DJIA.

Thanks in advance
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #69
  • May 27, 2008 9:30pm May 27, 2008 9:30pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
Hi DRT,

Fascinated by your methods, intraday with no charts, mind expanding stuff.

Thanks for offering your skills to others, I wondered if you could look at G/J for me, at a critical juncture some might say, price these last few days hasn't been the best guide. Also, and only if its not inconvenient, are you still bullish E/U, and what are your thoughts on the DJIA.

Thanks in advance

I just posted some thoughts on EURUSD a few posts back. Also the G/J analysis that is most recent is still accurate. Looks like the market gave a perfect long entry at ADV 204.11 You should have gotten long here and be targeting 207.67.
  • #70
  • May 27, 2008 9:31pm May 27, 2008 9:31pm
Thanks DRT for a lengthy explanation of your style of trading. good to know that you trade short term as well. As I understand it you trade mainly the majors, correct.

TG
  • #71
  • May 27, 2008 9:32pm May 27, 2008 9:32pm
I just wanted to remind everyone that if you use the "SEARCH THREAD" on the top of the page and type in the symbol you are interested in it will give yo a chronological listing of all the posts. It is a great tool for finding what you need.


ALSO - Just noticed that all my pics have vanished. I made some changes with the address of where they are stored. I will have to fix tommorrow. Too tired now. Take care.
  • #72
  • May 27, 2008 9:33pm May 27, 2008 9:33pm
Quoting tennisguy
Thanks DRT for a lengthy explanation of your style of trading. good to know that you trade short term as well. As I understand it you trade mainly the majors, correct.

TG
Yes. I trade the 4 majors and CAD and AUD some too.

No crosses. Too complicated for me.
  • #73
  • May 27, 2008 9:41pm May 27, 2008 9:41pm
has the usd/jpy exhausted it's move to 104.39, or is there still some move left during the euro session, then are we going to reverse??? are the numbers that we are waiting for the rest of the week going to have mojor influence on direction, or has the numbers results already been factored in??? thanks again.
  • #74
  • May 27, 2008 9:52pm May 27, 2008 9:52pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I just posted some thoughts on EURUSD a few posts back. Also the G/J analysis that is most recent is still accurate. Looks like the market gave a perfect long entry at ADV 204.11 You should have gotten long here and be targeting 207.67.
Will look a bit more thoroughly next time, keep up the excellent analysis
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #75
  • Edited May 28, 2008 12:21am May 27, 2008 11:25pm | Edited May 28, 2008 12:21am
It's my first post here... and what you have explained about using price distribution and standard deviation for analysis surprising me.. why? because i'm using it too.. maybe with a different style... but i'm glad there is somebody using it too...

Here is i saw you my screenshoot for USD/JP and EUR/USD... look at Aqua line... my zero line... i think it's your ADV numbers..

Regards,

KG

http://i30.tinypic.com/25yvp0w.gif


http://i25.tinypic.com/w9bk41.gif
  • #76
  • Edited 6:48am May 28, 2008 6:34am | Edited 6:48am
Good morning everyone. Something a little different...

Hope I don't get off topic, but my session signals indicate a reversal at these new daily lows in the

EURUSD to long at 5760
GBPUSD to long at 9827

and new daily highs in the

USDJPY to short at 104.88

If they do reverse direction, I will post my targets but with my session method, I need to see the reversal first. I get my targets once the push lower is complete (or I think it is complete that is )

I thought it might be fun to discuss my session trading a little since this is not a method specific forum. For this method I only trade

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD

I am sure most of you realize how difficult trading intraday reversals can be, so I really watch my risk on this but I do give these levels a little wiggle room.
  • #77
  • May 28, 2008 6:41am May 28, 2008 6:41am
Quoting Kang_Gun
It's my first post here... and what you have explained about using price distribution and standard deviation for analysis surprising me.. why? because i'm using it too.. maybe with a different style... but i'm glad there is somebody using it too...

Here is i saw you my screenshoot for USD/JP and EUR/USD... look at Aqua line... my zero line... i think it's your ADV numbers..

Regards,

KG
Hey very nice KG. I am glad you are participating. Feel free to post your charts and thoughts.
  • #78
  • May 28, 2008 6:43am May 28, 2008 6:43am
Hello DRT,

I will look for the reversal signals. txs for sharing. that is great.

TG
  • #79
  • May 28, 2008 6:59am May 28, 2008 6:59am
Quoting tennisguy
Hello DRT,

I will look for the reversal signals. txs for sharing. that is great.

TG
If you want to follow along, stay in the thread. What happens is (if the reversal works out) then I adjust the target often as price moves up. Not every minute or anything but several times during the course of the trade.

Do they have a chat room type thingy here at Forex Factory? Does anyone know?
  • #80
  • May 28, 2008 7:03am May 28, 2008 7:03am
not that i have heard, but then again, i do not know all of the nice little toys about this site yet. do not know if you know effilang, but he is in a chat room, he posted it in one of his threads, have not gone to it yet. he might know.
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