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Knowledge is Power

  • #21
  • May 27, 2008 6:16pm May 27, 2008 6:16pm
Downtrend to where?
  • #22
  • Edited 7:06pm May 27, 2008 7:04pm | Edited 7:06pm
Please read the following editorial and I will not give you anything more to read for today. We can talk or share information on trading USD/JPY which is the main currency pair that I am trading at the moment.

This is a very well thought out and clearly explained article on the state of the US economy. It is also very short. Enjoy !!!

Link:

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2008/0527.html

Snippet:

Government-induced inflation comes with a horrible price as it erodes savings and salaries. It makes us feel poor because even if our wages have gone up, we can only afford to buy less. Businesses are discovering that the poor and unemployed make lousy customers because they don’t spend enough. Lower real spending cuts into corporate profits and many businesses are starting to fail. Worse yet, the solvency of entire industries, including the airlines, automakers, retail stores and restaurant chains is on the line. We are saddened each time we read about yet another company that has been around for over 50 years, that is closing its doors forever.
Meanwhile, it's ironic to see the Congress blaming inflation on the speculators. With interest rates well below the rate of inflation, the Fed is paying commodity speculators to buy things that will go up in price with subsidized borrowed money! With low interest rates, a depreciating currency, and rapid money growth, inflation is not a surprise, it’s a guarantee! Indeed, many people aren't speculating but are acting rationally by getting out of a depreciating currency, rather than being robbed by their government.
If you own gold and silver, fear not. The Fed is years away from ever admitting a mistake, like printing too much money. Moreover, this is America. Congress will never call out for tight money. As long as the Chairman of the Fed still believes in the economic tooth fairy, rising inflation is guaranteed.
Unfortunately, the outlook looks grim. Inflation causes stagnation as people can afford to buy less and less. At the same time, a weak economy only encourages the Fed to print more money that will continue to rob me of my savings, and generate even more inflation. Bernanke may have been educated at Princeton but from what we have seen, he still knows very little. And in turn, this means we all get to learn firsthand what stagflation is all about
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  • #23
  • Edited 8:53pm May 27, 2008 7:43pm | Edited 8:53pm
Candlestick Forecast for 28 May 2008

Based on Daily Candlestick on 27 May (Tuesday)

USDJPY
Bullish Trending Candle takes over: Buy Signal

PREVIOUS DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
- White Spinning: Top No direction, Neutral
- Thrusting Pattern: Bearish or Bullish [In down trend, bearish, unless 2 of these patterns appear – Steve Nison]

P/s It appears that short term speaking, USDJPY is bullish [USD/JPY intraday: Continuation of the rebound], but please bear in mind that one need to take into consideration of weekly and other longer charts for longer term signal indicating an existing trend. Further, candlestick forecast is best used together with other indicators, please do not rely on candlestick alone, it is better to be confirmed with other technical indicators or fundamentals. As usual, Trade At Your Own Risk!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CandleStick 28May.png Size: 47 KB
  • #24
  • May 27, 2008 8:22pm May 27, 2008 8:22pm
Quoting eneloop
P/s It appears that short term speaking, USDJPY is bullish, but please bear in mind that one need to take into consideration of weekly and other longer charts for longer term signal indicating an existing trend. Further, candlestick forecast is best used together with other indicators, please do not rely on candlestick alone, it is better to be confirmed with other technical indicators or fundamentals. As usual, Trade At Your Own Risk!
To illustrate what I meant above:
Please see attachment (just an example, not really mean it should be trusted/followed)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TA1.png Size: 31 KB
  • #25
  • May 27, 2008 8:46pm May 27, 2008 8:46pm
Quoting eneloop
Oil seems to be the factor

　　
油价现罕见暴跌 美元脱离苦海可期

　　瑞银集团(UBS)的外汇策略师Manuel Oliveri表示，由于美元的命运与通胀担忧的关联增强，油价的有效下行对帮助美元寻获强势动力是必要的。

　　Action Economics外汇研究主管Ron Simpson表示：“目前美元走势似乎紧盯油价。今日油价大幅下滑，从而也帮助提振美元。”

The above Chinese says:
The current oil price falls suddenly (a rare incident), USD may have change to be out of the sea of bitterness.

2 sources have said that:

US dollar destiny is closely linked with inflation, the downward oil price helps US dollar to gain the strong trend power is necessary. 　　

US dollar closely links with oil price at present. Today the oil price slides largely, thus helping to strengthen US dollar.
  • #26
  • May 27, 2008 9:05pm May 27, 2008 9:05pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=88663


Bruce
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  • #27
  • May 28, 2008 12:55am May 28, 2008 12:55am
Loos like EU, GU and GJ and extreme bullish today could cross more than 100 PIPS
  • #28
  • May 28, 2008 5:08am May 28, 2008 5:08am
Quoting eneloop
To illustrate what I meant above:
Please see attachment (just an example, not really mean it should be trusted/followed)

can u post the link of that website? thank u
  • #29
  • May 28, 2008 5:19am May 28, 2008 5:19am
Good Morning All !!!
My Take On USD/JPY

There was very strong resistance at 104.40 in this pair. As recently as this morning at 4:00 AM it was at a low of 103.87 as was EUR/JPY at 163.09

I see at the moment that Oil is down another $2.66 to $126.19 and Gold is down below $900 US at $892.1, down another $15 overnight. To understand what is occuring you need to follow the money flow. Hedge funds are bailing out of Gold and Oil and looking at the Two Year US Teasuries at 2.52% now it is very clear that the Bonds are being sold as the yield rises 52 basis points above the US Discount rate now set at 2.00%

Where is the money going for the moment. It is going into the US Dollar and that is why the Carry Trade is going back on in both EUR/JPY and USD/JPY even though Dow Futures are only up 26.

Overnight the Nikkei was down and things started to change drastically when Europe opened and after 4:00 AM the USD/JPY started it's move up based on what I have just pointed out.

Are we in a fundamental change since the New Home Sales came out very bad but because of the spin whereas a revision down in the month before even though the current month only changed by 1000 the headline after 10:00 AM all day over the mainstream media was positive because of the false perception left out that the numbers improved when they did not. If not for the revision down the headline would have been different. That was the point and day that Oil got hit as did Gold.

Now where are we now ? Durable goods at 8:30 AM might give us a clue. Personally I see a test of 105.00 and maybe 105.10 at best but a reversal again back towards 104.00 could be more likely. Of course the direction of the Dow will have a big influence. I have seen this movie many times before and I expect it to have the same ending.

My call is USD/JPY heading down though data might change it short term. Next week there is Major Data coming out including the powerful mover, NFP so stay tuned as I get ready to take a ride on the wild side. Lot's of noise but NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES in the US Economy except it got worse not better so Game ON !!!


Bruce
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  • #30
  • May 28, 2008 5:47am May 28, 2008 5:47am
Quoting Warren Forex
Good Morning All !!!
My Take On USD/JPY

There was very strong resistance at 104.40 in this pair. As recently as this morning at 4:00 AM it was at a low of 103.87 as was EUR/JPY at 163.09

I see at the moment that Oil is down another $2.66 to $126.19 and Gold is down below $900 US at $892.1, down another $15 overnight. To understand what is occuring you need to follow the money flow. Hedge funds are bailing out of Gold and Oil and looking at the Two Year US Teasuries at 2.52% now it is very clear that the Bonds are being sold as the yield rises 52 basis points above the US Discount rate now set at 2.00%

Where is the money going for the moment. It is going into the US Dollar and that is why the Carry Trade is going back on in both EUR/JPY and USD/JPY even though Dow Futures are only up 26.

Overnight the Nikkei was down and things started to change drastically when Europe opened and after 4:00 AM the USD/JPY started it's move up based on what I have just pointed out.

Are we in a fundamental change since the New Home Sales came out very bad but because of the spin whereas a revision down in the month before even though the current month only changed by 1000 the headline after 10:00 AM all day over the mainstream media was positive because of the false perception left out that the numbers improved when they did not. If not for the revision down the headline would have been different. That was the point and day that Oil got hit as did Gold.

Now where are we now ? Durable goods at 8:30 AM might give us a clue. Personally I see a test of 105.00 and maybe 105.10 at best but a reversal again back towards 104.00 could be more likely. Of course the direction of the Dow will have a big influence. I have seen this movie many times before and I expect it to have the same ending.

My call is USD/JPY heading down though data might change it short term. Next week there is Major Data coming out including the powerful mover, NFP so stay tuned as I get ready to take a ride on the wild side. Lot's of noise but NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES in the US Economy except it got worse not better so Game ON !!!


Bruce

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif What A Joke For The Dummies Out There !!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
The Bonds increased the yield on the news from 2.52% to 2.56% on the spin.

Money popped into the US Dollar. The spin BETTER than expected BUT bottom line BAD...

PERCEPTION CHANGED again from REALITY.

The Dow will go to 14,000 The Recession is over Housing has bottomed and miraculously everything is great again.

Bruce

No Disrespect To Dummies however here is the GREAT News on Durables that caused the Euphoria. Are Things Good ?

Here is one report just out...

28 May 2008 12:30 GMT

BULLET: US DATA: Apr durable goods orders -0.5% in a 3rd in..

US DATA: Apr durable goods orders -0.5% in a 3rd drop in 4 mos. Durables
ex transport were +2.5% (second up month), and ex defense -0.3%. Motor
vehicles -3.3% and comml aircraft -24.4% (Boeing Co had 58 new orders
for pvt airplanes, vs 99 in Mar.) Durables was driven by +27.8% in
electrical eqpt, its biggest gain ever (no reason given), also by +2.8%
primary metals and +4.2% machinery. Shipments were +1.2%, Inventories
+0.5% (up in 9 of last 10 mos, possibly not all intended). NDCG shipmts
+1.3%, suggesting business spending was rising at the start of Q2.

Provided by: Market News International

WOW ! Bush bought $25,000,000,000 in New Spying Equipement to finally catch Bin Laden.

Amazing !!!
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  • #31
  • Edited 6:34am May 28, 2008 6:19am | Edited 6:34am
Quoting Warren Forex
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif What A Joke For The Dummies Out There !!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
The Bonds increased the yield on the news from 2.52% to 2.56% on the spin.

Money popped into the US Dollar. The spin BETTER than expected BUT bottom line BAD...

PERCEPTION CHANGED again from REALITY.

The Dow will go to 14,000 The Recession is over Housing has bottomed and miraculously everything is great again.

Bruce

No Disrespect To Dummies however here is the GREAT News on Durables that caused the Euphoria. Are Things Good ?

Here is one report just out...

28 May 2008 12:30 GMT

BULLET: US DATA: Apr durable goods orders -0.5% in a 3rd in..

US DATA: Apr durable goods orders -0.5% in a 3rd drop in 4 mos. Durables
ex transport were +2.5% (second up month), and ex defense -0.3%. Motor
vehicles -3.3% and comml aircraft -24.4% (Boeing Co had 58 new orders
for pvt airplanes, vs 99 in Mar.) Durables was driven by +27.8% in
electrical eqpt, its biggest gain ever (no reason given), also by +2.8%
primary metals and +4.2% machinery. Shipments were +1.2%, Inventories
+0.5% (up in 9 of last 10 mos, possibly not all intended). NDCG shipmts
+1.3%, suggesting business spending was rising at the start of Q2.

Provided by: Market News International

WOW ! Bush bought $25,000,000,000 in New Spying Equipement to finally catch Bin Laden.

Amazing !!!
I wonder if somebody put the decimal point in electrical equipment the "wrong" place - next month's revision will be interesting - 2.78% anyone???? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #32
  • May 28, 2008 11:40am May 28, 2008 11:40am
eneloop,

Thank You so much for starting this thread. The articles you posted have been extremely helpful to me, especially the psychology article, which describes me exactly. Keep up the great work!
  • #33
  • May 28, 2008 5:58pm May 28, 2008 5:58pm
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


Bruce
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  • #34
  • May 28, 2008 6:05pm May 28, 2008 6:05pm
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0528.html


This is long and in depth but well worth reading for the great and real data and information disclosed by "Jim Willie"


Bruce
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  • #35
  • May 28, 2008 6:42pm May 28, 2008 6:42pm
Warren...this is very good information, but I have a couple of questions.......

1. What future is there in our current mutual fund holdings?

2. What is the correlation between usdjpy and gas? i.e if one is up, is the other also up and vice versa?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #36
  • May 28, 2008 7:00pm May 28, 2008 7:00pm
14,094.35 +384.91
  • #37
  • May 28, 2008 7:29pm May 28, 2008 7:29pm
Quoting damonl
Warren...this is very good information, but I have a couple of questions.......

1. What future is there in our current mutual fund holdings?

2. What is the correlation between usdjpy and gas? i.e if one is up, is the other also up and vice versa?
I would be concerned about the value if the bulk is in US Stocks ! I might suggest to perhaps get some cash and hedge with Gold and Silver.

If the calls are correct and common sense and logic says it will get bad before it improves. I would cash out if you are able and wait for the drop and either get back in at a lower price or go into other assets such as Gold and Silver but no more than 25% as a hedge. This is my own thoughts and not investment advice to anyone.

The second question is harder. It depends where Oil is when the question is asked. If it is now if Oil holds above $120 and higher it is bad for the US Economy and profits so Dow should be affected down. As long as the USD/JPY Carry trade is not unwound and estimates say it is still over One Trillion to unwind then Dow Down USD/JPY UP.... By UP I mean the pair goes towards 100.00 if over at the time.

Oil also helps Gold go UP because of the Inflation issue.

Then you need to watch EUR/JPY as that does also affect USD/JPY as it is doing at the moment. EUR/JPY now at 164.12 Bid near High at 164.19

The High is 104.929 and Nikkei Up is helping there. A Further UP in Europe could send it over 105.00 and 105.10 but we will see. Then we have US Data in the AM other than New Jobless Claims some Important Data.

I would short a failure at 105.00 with a Tight Stop at 105.15

That's the way I see it for the moment.


Bruce
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  • #38
  • May 28, 2008 7:31pm May 28, 2008 7:31pm
Warren,

What broker do you use?
  • #39
  • May 28, 2008 7:35pm May 28, 2008 7:35pm
Quoting cvarnado
Warren,

What broker do you use?
I have been with them since March 12, 2008 also as a IB.

I started with the Saxo Platform, Went To Trade Station Two With Man Financial for one year. The PFG in Chicago using FX Solutions platform and then HotspotFX in New Jersey.

For me I like FXCM the best using again Trade Station Two with great resources both fundamental and technical.


Bruce
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  • #40
  • May 28, 2008 7:42pm May 28, 2008 7:42pm
Quoting Warren Forex
I would be concerned about the value if the bulk is in US Stocks ! I might suggest to perhaps get some cash and hedge with Gold and Silver.

If the calls are correct and common sense and logic says it will get bad before it improves. I would cash out if you are able and wait for the drop and either get back in at a lower price or go into other assets such as Gold and Silver but no more than 25% as a hedge. This is my own thoughts and not investment advice to anyone.

The second question is harder. It depends where Oil is when the question is asked. If it is now if Oil holds above $120 and higher it is bad for the US Economy and profits so Dow should be affected down. As long as the USD/JPY Carry trade is not unwound and estimates say it is still over One Trillion to unwind then Dow Down USD/JPY UP.... By UP I mean the pair goes towards 100.00 if over at the time.

Oil also helps Gold go UP because of the Inflation issue.

Then you need to watch EUR/JPY as that does also affect USD/JPY as it is doing at the moment. EUR/JPY now at 164.12 Bid near High at 164.19

The High is 104.929 and Nikkei Up is helping there. A Further UP in Europe could send it over 105.00 and 105.10 but we will see. Then we have US Data in the AM other than New Jobless Claims some Important Data.

I would short a failure at 105.00 with a Tight Stop at 105.15

That's the way I see it for the moment.


Bruce
Thanks for the info.....it is very helpful......i was kind of thinking the same thing. your thoughts are then that if usdjpy can close above 105 then we will possibly see 108 otherwise possibly back down to try again?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
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