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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,821
  • May 26, 2008 12:38pm May 26, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Jairo
Sorry, couldn't keep my promise when I saw this. Do you think trading is difficult? Take a look here:

http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=dZRC7d...eature=related

Good trading to all.
Hi Jairo,

No problem, did enjoy the links you gave.
The youngsters, they are quite agile and skillful.
Wish that was true of most traders.

regards
  • #2,822
  • Edited 2:35pm May 26, 2008 2:15pm | Edited 2:35pm
http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=JZAQMGbLbNw
As i train taekwondo i hope i will perform these kicks one day

regards and happy trading tommorow, today was a silent day :S
  • #2,823
  • May 26, 2008 11:06pm May 26, 2008 11:06pm
Quoting fti
Hope that you are very clear about the mindset now.
Trade carefully , friend.

regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux8n1UV6cFE
Thanks.

This song is a old song, but I listened again many times these two days.

David
  • #2,824
  • Edited 7:15am May 27, 2008 5:55am | Edited 7:15am
Hi ALL,
Had a great Holiday?

Enjoy this , The Chinese Flower Song.

regards

@ David , yes its old Hokkien song, but do you under stand the meaning ?
Careful , I am detecting possible turn of 2 Kingdoms, the USD may be doing an intermediate bottom. Watch out for uSD strength, now.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip The Chinese Flower Song.zip   1.6 MB | 885 downloads
  • #2,825
  • May 27, 2008 7:07am May 27, 2008 7:07am
Hope you are in soaring spirites fti.
When I am trading I have this voice inside me which some times stops me from taking a trade even if i think I should or asks me to wait, and if i dont heed this advice I find my self in trouble, is this the feel we talk about, also can i read more about market's sigma and Vega you had mentioned much earlier?

Thanks
  • #2,826
  • May 27, 2008 7:19am May 27, 2008 7:19am
Also I have been trying to find out more about Hip Lop pattern, but have found out nothing is it called some thing else in the western world ?

Thanks
  • #2,827
  • May 27, 2008 9:54am May 27, 2008 9:54am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
Had a great Holiday?

Enjoy this , The Chinese Flower Song.

regards

@ David , yes its old Hokkien song, but do you under stand the meaning ?
Careful , I am detecting possible turn of 2 Kingdoms, the USD may be doing an intermediate bottom. Watch out for uSD strength, now.
Yes sir!! I understand the meaning, perfectly. Then Min Nan dialect is too different from Mandarin and Cantonese.

"Life is just like sea waves, there are ups and downs. Good luck, or bad luck, you have to carry on hard work. Success relies 30% on good luck, and 70% on hard work(fight and struggle). Fight and you will win."

I also noticed USD getting stronger, today banked in some pips by shorting G/U and E/U, still held some short positions but with -100 pips(I closed my long positions too early, and started U-turn too early last week, bad timing),

luckily, the equity is still growing, since I did rescue operation since May 20.

Thanks again and regards.

David
  • #2,828
  • Edited 11:21am May 27, 2008 10:39am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting ksl
Hope you are in soaring spirites fti.
When I am trading I have this voice inside me which some times stops me from taking a trade even if i think I should or asks me to wait, and if i dont heed this advice I find my self in trouble, is this the feel we talk about, also can i read more about market's sigma and Vega you had mentioned much earlier?

Thanks
Hi ksl,

Sorry with late reply, was caught in discussion with property brokers. Its nice time to sell some props in Sg, Market very hot.

The voice you are talking about, it can be a voice of reason and good sense , if you have good experience then its voice of reason. It all depends on you, it could also be greed,or fear if that was the predominant frame of mind.However that s all you got to work with, and with some safety parameters you have to work it. I am afraid no one can tell you exactly how to deal with it, it all depends on your mindset.

Sigma is speed of move, you can determine that from the gradient or slope of price movement. The Vega is the volitility or rate of gyration of the market and you can determine that from the range (or Average true range) of the bars. Both can be guesstimated from the chart and must be read in relative to its historical characteristics. If you want to understand this in empirical formulation, you will find the treatment from a study of how options are priced and how they impact the premium pricing of the underlying instrument. They are sometimes refered to as "the greeks" as that is how they are empirically written. I use it in analytical visual method, so I deal with the guesstimates of the changing environment more than the formulation. For me its the impact that I watch out for (whether its thrust is intact or if its stalling), and not in absolutes. A lot of experience and time spent on the pair helps in the ability to recognise "the change" that is happening. I usually analyst on in the USD perspective and then relating to 3 kingdoms to determine the carrier currency.

I believe that your understanding is good as you are asking very performance critical questions.

For your questions on Hip and Lops, well many analyst use it in many ways, You may have come across it in some technical studies, Wilders has some specific on it but I am not at liberty to publish it, due to my respect and agreement for his teachings. In some circles, it is known as "High Point" and "Low Point". Sorry that I cannot be more specific.

regards

PS: like your Niten avatar.
  • #2,829
  • Edited 11:14am May 27, 2008 10:53am | Edited 11:14am
Quoting Green_David
Yes sir!! I understand the meaning, perfectly. Then Min Nan dialect is too different from Mandarin and Cantonese.

"Life is just like sea waves, there are ups and downs. Good luck, or bad luck, you have to carry on hard work. Success relies 30% on good luck, and 70% on hard work(fight and struggle). Fight and you will win."

I also noticed USD getting stronger, today banked in some pips by shorting G/U and E/U, still held some short positions but with -100 pips(I closed my long positions too early, and started U-turn too early last week, bad timing),

luckily, the equity is still growing, since I did rescue operation since May 20.

Thanks again and regards.

David
Hi David.
Its good that you understand, Lucky I didn't speak to you in my mother-tongue, Fu Zhou ( the main not the well dialects), You may think I came from other space, In some ways I am not really Han.

In essence , I think you are already quite clear about my methodology, Only that other knowledge may be creating small impasses for you. As you go along , you will slowly see the intricacies of my methodology , the questions then would be , if you can hold to the faith and work it true to basics.

Keep in mind always , that the difference between being in profit or loss , is separated by a thin line of the decision process. Small differences can be a bon or or curse , and only when the results are out that we will be wiser to its power. So remember, the difference between the loser and the winner is seperated by only a nose.

Good Fortune.

regards

@ Zoran, I am so sorry that I still have not finish the book you gave me. Seems I am reluctant, mostly because I seem not to want to give up the puffing. My bad. Nevertheless be assured of my gratitude for your attempts to help me. I will however , sound my trumpet to you , when I had achieve the said, and also of its impact if any. Thank you , my friend.
  • #2,830
  • May 27, 2008 11:29am May 27, 2008 11:29am
Quoting mijamoto
http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=JZAQMGbLbNw
As i train taekwondo i hope i will perform these kicks one day

regards and happy trading tommorow, today was a silent day :S
Hi mijamoto,

As in all things in life, it is important to master basics. This is esp so if you are not gonna keep both feets on the ground as in kicking.

regards
  • #2,831
  • May 27, 2008 12:12pm May 27, 2008 12:12pm
a long day without much profit yet.

2 questions:

1. I notice that PA tends to bounce away on the first touch of a S/R. Is this correct?

2. Why is the london open a much better market than the US? The music is so different that I am considering starting waking up again at 3: am?

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,832
  • Edited 1:51pm May 27, 2008 1:41pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting luSan
a long day without much profit yet.

2 questions:

1. I notice that PA tends to bounce away on the first touch of a S/R. Is this correct?
No. it is wrong to assume that. Support /Resistance Zones are test zones. Mostly the market 's behaviour at these areas either are very volatile or congested. Being test zones, its behaviour would be derived by the volitility when this is tested. High volitility suggest continuation after a few sweeps, while low volitility thrust indicate distribution. It is impossible to read into distribution, suggest that positions be off loaded or squared off if distribution is detected, and to follow development until impulse re-surfaces.


2. Why is the london open a much better market than the US? The music is so different that I am considering starting waking up again at 3: am?

I do not understand what you mean by better.
Generally, the market structure and characteristics changes from sector to sector. This is due to the market liquidity differences caused by operators
and participants.
London sector seems most liquid, as it is a confluence of orders from Far East International trade, as well as the influence from Eurodollar deposits ( USD deposits held outside of US) predominantly oil money and activities from the swiss banking system, where lots of USD are parked dues to its non reporting environment. Although London may look to be where the volume congregates, in fact the bulk of the sparing takes place off London eg Dussodolf , copenhagen,antwarp etc. Activities in swiss gold, Middle eastern black gold , diamonds, cold war block USD switches (ie arms moneies) etc, imposes the liquidity. Of course this is complimented by the 24hr dealing rooms in Tokyo and to some extent HongKong and Singapore.

As most dealers around the world are sparring in the GMT zone, lots of name switches and realignment of credit risk takes place through the European Money broking system.

In contrast to London Zone activities, the majority of liquidity in North Americas is derivative of order activities of hedger position and realignments to US data releases and USD monetary and fiscal policies. These are normally done with by NY lunchtime, otherwise late afternoons. So the North American mornings have good liquidity while London Zone squares out.
In the NY afternoons, the derivatives exchanges is the liquidity, as US banks are not active in the direct, in the afternoons. So the market goes into non market maker territories, public domain if you please.

It is for these reasons that you may find that the character of the market may differ with the changing time zones. Its mostly due to market structure.


Regards,
I hope this helps you.

regards
  • #2,833
  • May 27, 2008 1:53pm May 27, 2008 1:53pm
Quoting fti
I hope this helps you.

regards
this will help me saving time................thanks
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,834
  • May 27, 2008 2:12pm May 27, 2008 2:12pm
Quoting fti
.

1. I notice that PA tends to bounce away on the first touch of a S/R. Is this correct?
No. it is wrong to assume that. Support /Resistance Zones are test zones. Mostly the market 's behaviour at these areas either are very volatile or congested. Being test zones, its behaviour would be derived by the volitility when this is tested. High volitility suggest continuation after a few sweeps, while low volitility thrust indicate distribution. It is impossible to read into distribution, suggest that positions be off loaded or squared off if distribution is detected, and to follow development until impulse re-surfaces.
>>>Thanks...Patience is a real virtue.

2. Why is the london open a much better market than the US? The music is so different that I am considering starting waking up again at 3: am?

I do not understand what you mean by better.
>>>Better my my type of trading...I need volatility and I think American have long lunches...today the market went dead from 11:30 to 2:00 pm...I was in...and I waited, waited...ah!!!

Generally, the market structure and characteristics changes from sector to sector. This is due to the market liquidity differences caused by operators
and participants.
London sector seems most liquid, as it is a confluence of orders from Far East International trade, as well as the influence from Eurodollar deposits ( USD deposits held outside of US) predominantly oil money and activities from the swiss banking system, where lots of USD are parked dues to its non reporting environment. Although London may look to be where the volume congregates, in fact the bulk of the sparing takes place off London eg Dussodolf , copenhagen,antwarp etc. Activities in swiss gold, Middle eastern black gold , diamonds, cold war block USD switches (ie arms moneies) etc, imposes the liquidity. Of course this is complimented by the 24hr dealing rooms in Tokyo and to some extent HongKong and Singapore.

As most dealers around the world are sparring in the GMT zone, lots of name switches and realignment of credit risk takes place through the European Money broking system.

In contrast to London Zone activities, the majority of liquidity in North Americas is derivative of order activities of hedger position and realignments to US data releases and USD monetary and fiscal policies. These are normally done with by NY lunchtime, otherwise late afternoons. So the North American mornings have good liquidity while London Zone squares out.
In the NY afternoons, the derivatives exchanges is the liquidity, as US banks are not active in the direct, in the afternoons. So the market goes into non market maker territories, public domain if you please.

It is for these reasons that you may find that the character of the market may differ with the changing time zones. Its mostly due to market structure.
>>>Indeed...I feel most confortable trading from 3:30 to 6:00 am...I will swith to these hours next week.
Thanks for your comments and your patience...I am done for the day..

Best wishes...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,835
  • May 27, 2008 2:29pm May 27, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting fti
Hi ksl,
...
Sigma is speed of move, you can determine that from the gradient or slope of price movement.
The Vega is the volitility or rate of gyration of the market and you can determine that from the range (or Average true range) of the bars.
Both can be guesstimated from the chart and must be read in relative to its historical characteristics. ...
Hello,

Do you estimate (because your experience) the Vega and the Sigma with
the 12 sma in the 5 min chart?

Regards,

Textor
  • #2,836
  • Edited 5:47pm May 27, 2008 5:24pm | Edited 5:47pm
Quoting fti
@ Zoran, I am so sorry that I still have not finish the book you gave me. Seems I am reluctant, mostly because I seem not to want to give up the puffing. My bad. Nevertheless be assured of my gratitude for your attempts to help me. I will however , sound my trumpet to you , when I had achieve the said, and also of its impact if any. Thank you , my friend.
fti, why do you believe that you have to give something up? It really is just a short book and no-one is asking you to stop smoking while reading it. Why are you so reluctant? You can continue on with your life as you please when it is finished. Do you really believe this book will make you stop after what, 30 or 40 years of heavy smoking?

You know that you will never stop for health reasons. As far as I can tell, we almost lost you about a month ago and even you admit your "very very heavy smoking will probably switch off your lights". But you continue to do it. In fact, the cigarette companies love those TV ads that show the health risks and people dying. They know it helps sales.

So can you tell me the real reason for not reading it? You come across as a wise man with balls of steal, like one of those Kung fu masters sharing their wisdom with their students and beating up the bad guys when provoked. I remember watching some of those shows as a child but I don't remember any lighting one up after sharing their wisdom.

Anyway, I will leave you alone if you can tell me the real reason for not wanting to read the book (or if you read the book). Are you able to do that?

Regards
  • #2,837
  • May 27, 2008 10:31pm May 27, 2008 10:31pm
hi all, i want to ask some question here,

how to dance with the market and not predicting?
I understood one of the technique used to dance were compound bar charts formations.
But isnt bar charts/candlestick formations are predictive as well? like when we see 3 black crows or a reversal bar and then we put in the attack/rescue troops, we are actually anticipating that a reversal/continuation will happen. But since a reversal bar doesnt always reverse the price, doesn't it mean we are (predicting/hoping) for it to reverse when we buy? Afterall trading is about probabilities right?

please help explain to me, thanks
  • #2,838
  • May 28, 2008 12:27am May 28, 2008 12:27am
Fti:
Sorry for interference

woopypooky:
Please keep in mind that it does not anticipate,
you need to watch all volatility, speed of market
all kind of PA alltogether will give you feeling.
But anyway it is not prediction, because

YOU ARE ALWAYS WRONG TILL MARKET PROVES YOU RIGHT

Please read any research book about tech analysis with stats. It always shows that price movement has implied probability to go north or south. but it is probability not 100%

So ONE needs to MANAGE HIS POSITIONS actively to get right results

Quoting woopypooky
hi all, i want to ask some question here,

how to dance with the market and not predicting?
I understood one of the technique used to dance were compound bar charts formations.
But isnt bar charts/candlestick formations are predictive as well? like when we see 3 black crows or a reversal bar and then we put in the attack/rescue troops, we are actually anticipating that a reversal/continuation will happen. But since a reversal bar doesnt always reverse the price, doesn't it mean we are (predicting/hoping) for it to reverse when we buy? Afterall trading is about probabilities right?

please help explain to me, thanks
it's o'k to win ...
  • #2,839
  • May 28, 2008 6:45am May 28, 2008 6:45am
Quoting fti
Hi David.
Its good that you understand, Lucky I didn't speak to you in my mother-tongue, Fu Zhou ( the main not the well dialects), You may think I came from other space, In some ways I am not really Han.

In essence , I think you are already quite clear about my methodology, Only that other knowledge may be creating small impasses for you. As you go along , you will slowly see the intricacies of my methodology , the questions then would be , if you can hold to the faith and work it true to basics.

Keep in mind always , that the difference between being in profit or loss , is separated by a thin line of the decision process. Small differences can be a bon or or curse , and only when the results are out that we will be wiser to its power. So remember, the difference between the loser and the winner is seperated by only a nose.

Good Fortune.

regards
I have been to Fu Zhou twice, 1992, and 2000. It is a nice city, lot of Indonesian Chinese live there. Fu Zhou dialect is also different from Min Nan dialect(so called Taiwan language). Very difficult to learn. Wonder if you ever been to Fu Zhou. Fujian is one of the richest provice in China. The richest province is Taiwan, of course. And then, maybe Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Shandong.

Thank you for your great teachings. But,

I have a problem I wish you could help me. My biggest problem is no ability to hold. You see, today I shorted E/U around 5737, but majority closed around @5690, now it is 5650; shorted G/U around 9810, but majority closed @9788, now it is 9730.

Of course, I am still holding some short postions now which is in fact set up one week ago.

Any good idea to improve my ability to hold? Of course, my size is sort of heavy, that is one of reasons I couldn't expose my positions too long in the market.

Thanks, regards.

David
  • #2,840
  • Edited 6:20pm May 28, 2008 7:19am | Edited 6:20pm
Hello,

May be someone can give me an opinion:

In the image below you can see my two short enters today.
First enter was a 0.5 lot, second enter 1 full lot, third enter
was not carried out, and I don't know at the moment
if it will be carried out, but I would do it again with 1 full lot.
progression: 0.5,1,1. My bias was obviously short the euro.
(Usually in an attack, I close all the operations at the same time.
Today was an exception.)

But I have a question:
In the image you can see a circle, I didn't enter at this price,
but I could....
Beside the circle one can see an arrow with 15 small in range bar
price (time frame 5 min).

My question is:
In the case that I had shorted in the circle:
What it is advisable to do during those 15 price bars,
WAITING and WAITING and WAITING, or RESCUE the scout and out?
May be it is more a mindset issue or trading style....
I always have the temptation to wait the confirmation my bias,
but many times this was a mistake.

(Obviously during those 15 bars
one could not see what came later...)

I hope my question is clear.

Thanks in advance.

Regrads,

Textor
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