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Ask DRT

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jun 3, 2008 2:58pm May 26, 2008 8:21am | Edited Jun 3, 2008 2:58pm
Ask DRT

I have always enjoyed helping traders when I can. It is not an easy task to use the internet to communicate, but it is definitely a resource that can help us become better and more profitable traders. There is so much information available to us in today's environment it is difficult to sort what is helpful and what is not.

Forex Factory supplies lots of information for us. News, Research, Opinions and discussions with fellow traders. You don't need help with any of this as it is readily availble everywhere.

When I started trading several years ago I had no idea what was going on in the Forex markets. Learning to be a profitable trader is a difficult but rewarding learning experience. Today, I am a full-time, active trader of currencies. I trade only for myself from a remote trading office. I also trade bonds, gold and the S&P index but I will not discuss them here.

I had this idea to start a thread for traders to ask a second opinion about the directional bias for their favorite currencies. In other threads I have participated in, folks have been asking about comments on pairs other than than those I have been posting. So I came up with the idea of " Ask DRT".

I am certainly not claiming to have the answer to successful positioning, but maybe I can offer you a view that enables you to trade your own methods better. I hope that my comments might give you a framework to become successful with your own trading business. And as I said, "I get a certain satisfaction when I am right and help you at the same time".

So Ask DRT

UPDATE TO THREAD 5.28.2008

Like all threads , this one is ever evolving. I made a change to the place where I store my pics and this has caused some of the early pics to be unvailable and I see no way to edit the posts. Sorry. I have different styles of trading and we are also discussing what I call session trading. My methods for this are based around price distribution, but heavily influenced by session to session value. This is more short term in nature and targets reversals in session trends. Obviously, this is very risky and difficult. You can jump to the short term trading which begins with this thread

*******************************************************************************************************

UPDATE TO THREAD 6.2.2008

Traders here indicated a preference for position trading as the short term posting is difficult to follow in a forum environment. We are now following a short term positioning method which focuses on key position levels to watch each day for new positions as well as trade management of existing positions. There are a few posts that are important that discuss the nuances of the method. You can jump to the first thread in this discuss by clicking here.



IMPORTANT: Please search the thread by currency pair to see if there is an up to date post before posting. Also, please Ask about one pair per post. This will help keep things organized.

If you have a question about my price distribution methodology, please direct it towards the Trade the Curve thread located here.

DISCLAIMER: I just wanted to remind all of you that you should take any of my comments with great caution. DRT is not licensed or registered to give trading advice. I am frequently wrong. Trading Forex is very risky and the odds are that you could lose all of your capital. You should use the comments here for educational purposes to supplement your own thoughts or seek the advice of a professional before investing your own money. For more information and to protect yourself visit the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
  • #2
  • May 26, 2008 8:23am May 26, 2008 8:23am
Quoting BANDA
Hi DownRiver,
Hi how are you?Could you please comment on NZD/USD pair , if you have done analysis already? NZD trade blance due 6.30 EST today....
Thank you in advance

This pair is building value at the critical ADV level of 7860. The next major directional move will likely come from this level. It appears the monthly distribution needs to balance between 7860 and 7686 so my bias would be short while trading below ADV at 7860.

Look to set shorts near 7860. Target 7773. I would cover here and observe. I see we have moved up strongly from the monthly longest line and if the 7860 level becomes the new longest line then we will likely move back up to ADV.

On the upside...if price settles above 7860 and builds value then set longs up to 7927.

Hope this gives you some ideas.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...rve/nzdusd.PNG
  • #3
  • May 26, 2008 8:25am May 26, 2008 8:25am
Quoting ah_nen
HI DTR, Do you mind to comment on EURGBP please? thanks
No problem. Sorry I was not up as early as you today.

We can clearly see the longest line for this month at 7950. Recently this cross has moved up through ADV at 7928 and tested the Supply at [+2]. At this point the supply moved price back down to test ADV. The ADV level of 7928 held which is very bullish at this point. I would look for longs here.

The market is currently building value or range trading between 7981 and 7928. If we look at the longest line it is very well developed which tells is that a move is imminent. A move out of ADV may lead to the next major directional move in this cross.

I would look to set longs if the market gives you an approach toward 7928. Target 7981 then 8033. This would be wrong if we begin to build value under ADV on a daily basis. If this occurs exit longs.

Since we are currently well above ADV, the next scenario would be a move above 7981 Supply [+1]. Once above look to set longs to 8033.

If I am wrong on this and we move below ADV, post another message about it and I will look at the short side.



http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.26.2008.PNG


http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.26.2008.PNG
  • #4
  • Edited 8:30am May 26, 2008 8:26am | Edited 8:30am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Ask DRT

I have always enjoyed helping traders when I can. It is not an easy task to use the internet to communicate, but it is definitely a resource that can help us become better and more profitable traders. There is so much information available to us in today's environment it is difficult to sort what is helpful and what is not.

Forex Factory supplies lots of information for us. News, Research, Opinions and discussions with fellow traders. You don't need help with any of this as it is readily availble everywhere.

When I started trading several years ago I had no idea what was going on in the Forex markets. Learning to be a profitable trader is a difficult but rewarding learning experience. Today, I am a full-time, active trader of currencies. I trade only for myself from a remote trading office.

I had this idea to start a thread for traders to ask a second opinion about the directional bias for their favorite currencies. In other threads I have participated in, folks have been asking about comments on pairs other than than those I have been posting. So I came up with the idea of " Ask DRT".

I am certainly not claiming to have the answer to successful positioning, but maybe I can offer you a view that enables you to trade your own methods better. I hope that my comments might give you a framework to become successful with your own trading business. And as I said, "I get a certain satisfaction when I am right and help you at the same time".

So Ask DRT


DISCLAIMER: I just wanted to remind all of you that you should take any of my comments with great caution. DRT is not licensed or registered to give trading advice. I am frequently wrong. Trading Forex is very risky and the odds are that you could lose all of your capital. You should use the comments here for educational purposes to supplement your own thoughts or seek the advice of a professional before investing your own money. For more information and to protect yourself visit the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
There is no harm in asking for second opinions. We as individuals sometimes get blind sighted and miss the small details sometimes while trading.

So here it goes, what do you see as far as GBP/JPY & EUR/CAD.

Thanks!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5
  • May 26, 2008 8:29am May 26, 2008 8:29am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
This pair is building value at the critical ADV level of 7860. The next major directional move will likely come from this level. It appears the monthly distribution needs to balance between 7860 and 7686 so my bias would be short while trading below ADV at 7860.

Look to set shorts near 7860. Target 7773. I would cover here and observe. I see we have moved up strongly from the monthly longest line and if the 7860 level becomes the new longest line then we will likely move back up to ADV.

On the upside...if price settles above 7860 and builds value then set longs up to 7927.

Hope this gives you some ideas.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...rve/nzdusd.PNG
Thank you for your kindness in being willing to share your expertise. I am sure it will be a great help to us new ones.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6
  • May 26, 2008 8:40am May 26, 2008 8:40am
Would you please share with us what you think will happen to USDCAD? I think someone else was asking the same question. It seems like it is due for a rebound since a sharp downtrend for some time now. But I can't see any clear signs from the chart.
Expected the unexpected
  • #7
  • May 26, 2008 8:51am May 26, 2008 8:51am
The GBPJPY is at an ideal level for positioning. This pair is trading just above the ADV level of 204.11 The next major directional move will come from this level. It is an ideal time to position correctly out of this value area either up or down.

Since the pair has recently built value above ADV, my bias would be long. The monthly longest line is very develped just below this area and should provide good demand.

Look to set longs on any approach to 204.11. Target 207.67. If we move below the ADV level of 204.11 and settle there, then exit longs and look to set up short for a move down to 201.70.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.26.2008.PNG
  • #8
  • May 26, 2008 8:56am May 26, 2008 8:56am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
The GBPJPY is at an ideal level for positioning. This pair is trading just above the ADV level of 204.11 The next major directional move will come from this level. It is an ideal time to position correctly out of this value area either up or down.

Since the pair has recently built value above ADV, my bias would be long. The monthly longest line is very develped just below this area and should provide good demand.

Look to set longs on any approach to 204.11. Target 207.67. If we move below the ADV level of 204.11 and settle there, then exit longs and look to set up short for a move down to 201.70.
Thanks!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #9
  • May 26, 2008 9:16am May 26, 2008 9:16am
Hi DRT,

Thanks so much for your unselfish help to others to become a better trader. I found out your method very interesting, is like buying low and selling high using a certain level as a reference. It is something like if a currency is overvalued then it shall come down to equilibrium or lower before finding any buyers same is true for undervalued currency, it shall find buyers before any sellers come in.
My questions for you: Do you find it any way in MT4 platform to generate this kind of price distribution indicator? Another question, what do you see of Gbp/Usd pair currently? Thanks in advance.
  • #10
  • May 26, 2008 10:00am May 26, 2008 10:00am
Quoting scyang
Would you please share with us what you think will happen to USDCAD? I think someone else was asking the same question. It seems like it is due for a rebound since a sharp downtrend for some time now. But I can't see any clear signs from the chart.

We all know what has been driving this pair, the "O" word. It makes it easy or difficult depending on your view I guess. Take my comments here with great caution as the Oil market is obviously volatile right now.

The USDCAD has met its objective. Look for a reversal move back up out of the 9863 level. Take it level by level.

Look to set longs on a move down into 9863. Target 9934. Exit and observe. We will either range trade back down to 9863, or I suspect we move on up to 1.0031. If we do get through the 9934 level, look to set longs for a move on up toward ADV. I know my view is wrong if the price settles and builds value below 9863 area.



http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.26.2008.PNG
  • #11
  • May 26, 2008 10:11am May 26, 2008 10:11am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
We all know what has been driving this pair, the "O" word. It makes it easy or difficult depending on your view I guess. Take my comments here with great caution as the Oil market is obviously volatile right now.

The USDCAD has met its objective. Look for a reversal move back up out of the 9863 level. Take it level by level.

Look to set longs on a move down into 9863. Target 9934. Exit and observe. We will either range trade back down to 9863, or I suspect we move on up to 1.0031. If we do get through the 9934 level, look to set longs for a move on up toward ADV. I know my view is wrong if the price settles and builds value below 9863 area.



http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.26.2008.PNG
Thank you very much. Shall be watching.
Expected the unexpected
  • #12
  • May 26, 2008 10:18am May 26, 2008 10:18am
Quoting mktjong
Hi DRT,

Thanks so much for your unselfish help to others to become a better trader. I found out your method very interesting, is like buying low and selling high using a certain level as a reference. It is something like if a currency is overvalued then it shall come down to equilibrium or lower before finding any buyers same is true for undervalued currency, it shall find buyers before any sellers come in.
My questions for you: Do you find it any way in MT4 platform to generate this kind of price distribution indicator? Another question, what do you see of Gbp/Usd pair currently? Thanks in advance.
I believe tenantro has started a thread for MT4 users to develp a Price Distribution indicator. Do a search and you will find it.
  • #13
  • May 26, 2008 10:29am May 26, 2008 10:29am
Quoting mktjong
Hi DRT,

Another question, what do you see of Gbp/Usd pair currently? Thanks in advance.

Sterling is currently building value near the ADV level and has now made 3 attempts to advance. Again, ADV is very important here. A move through sets up an upward trend for the week. However, if the supply here holds, then range trading below will persist. Best to go with the flow here, but my bias is for a move up through the ADV level of 9837.

If price moves above 9837 and builds value, look to set longs on a move back toward 9837. Target 9936. Cover here and observe and wait for the next clue. I would guess we may trade back down to 9837 before a move powerful move up.

If my view is wrong, traders can range trade the current 9837 down to 9732 range and back up to ADV.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.26.2008.PNG
  • #14
  • May 26, 2008 10:44am May 26, 2008 10:44am
Quoting Ash
There is no harm in asking for second opinions. We as individuals sometimes get blind sighted and miss the small details sometimes while trading.

So here it goes, what do you see as far as GBP/JPY & EUR/CAD.

Thanks!

ASH - Here is the EURCAD you asked about.

Notice the EURCAD has met its objective and reversed direction out of the monthly lows. The cross moved up out of the bottom zone and is currently building value between Value Area [-2] and Value Area [-1] and the distribution is well developed. This tells us that a directional move is imminent. There has been an attempt to take value up to ADV but it was met with heavy supply but value did build in this zone.

My bias is for a continued advance up toward ADV at this point. Look to set longs if the market gives you 1.5485 again. Target 5680 and next ADV at 1.5876.

If the market moves through Value Area [-1] again before it trades down, then look to set longs on a move back down to 5680 and target ADV at 1.5876. I would exit here and observe for a clue to the next move. My view is incorrect if we move down to the lows below 1.5485. If this does occur, look to set longs down at 5356 for a move up.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.26.2008.PNG
  • #15
  • May 26, 2008 11:56am May 26, 2008 11:56am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Sterling is currently building value near the ADV level and has now made 3 attempts to advance. Again, ADV is very important here. A move through sets up an upward trend for the week. However, if the supply here holds, then range trading below will persist. Best to go with the flow here, but my bias is for a move up through the ADV level of 9837.

If price moves above 9837 and builds value, look to set longs on a move back toward 9837. Target 9936. Cover here and observe and wait for the next clue. I would guess we may trade back down to 9837 before a move powerful move up.

If my view is wrong, traders can range trade the current 9837 down to 9732 range and back up to ADV.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...05.26.2008.PNG
Thanks so much DRT, really appreciate it.
Regarding the MT4 indicator, I downloaded it from your other website. But somehow still quite difficult to interprete its curve. Do u have any suggestion? Thanks again.
  • #16
  • May 26, 2008 2:53pm May 26, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting mktjong
Thanks so much DRT, really appreciate it.
Regarding the MT4 indicator, I downloaded it from your other website. But somehow still quite difficult to interprete its curve. Do u have any suggestion? Thanks again.
Unfortunately I am not familiar with it, try contacting tenantro in his thread he should be able to help.
  • #17
  • May 26, 2008 3:30pm May 26, 2008 3:30pm
hey man

what do u think about cable in the long term
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #18
  • Edited 3:54pm May 26, 2008 3:40pm | Edited 3:54pm
Quoting salah k.
hey man

what do u think about cable in the long term
salah,

what do you mean by Long Term? I assume you saw my cable thoughts a couple posts back? If you mean the next several weeks then....

I think cable may reach 2.15/35 before stopping the longer term trend. Likely a heavy retract from 2.15, then the advance to 2.35 araea. If it goes below 1.85 I would change my view. So Long it is for me.

If you take a look at the monthly chart, there is TREMENDOUS consolidation. Just look at the value building that has occurred around 1.98. One thing is for sure, when it goes it is going to go hard. We just need to be on the right side of it. 5 months of coiling up is going to bust out very, very soon. Use the monthly ADV level that I posted on cable and stay on the right side of it. I think this could be the trad of the year!!

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/a...T%205-2008.PNG

What time frame? or does this answer your question?
  • #19
  • May 26, 2008 3:49pm May 26, 2008 3:49pm
Hi DRT,
Happy to see you started a new thread, so it would be easier to find your insight, input and analysis. People like me benefit a lot from this as I do not trust my own analysis which lead to loses often times.
BANDA333
  • #20
  • May 26, 2008 3:51pm May 26, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
salah,

what do you mean by Long Term? I assume you saw my cable thoughts a couple posts back? If you mean the next several weeks then....

I think cable may reach 2.15/35 before stopping the longer term trend. Likely a heavy retract from 2.15, then the advance to 2.35 araea. If it goes below 1.85 I would change my view. So Long it is for me.

What time frame? or does this answer your question?
Good to see I am not the only seeing the possibility of 2.35.
Humble Lifetime Member
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