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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #84,261
  • May 25, 2008 9:16pm May 25, 2008 9:16pm
Quoting lilmoe
i'd say there's a bearish flag on my 5 min chart.
i would also say that DP would be the max price will reach todah (205)

unless we're going to have another ranging bothersome day...
  • #84,262
  • May 25, 2008 9:17pm May 25, 2008 9:17pm
Quoting lilmoe
i'd say there's a bearish flag on my 5 min chart.
Hi Lilmoe .. are you from Jordan ??
  • #84,263
  • May 25, 2008 9:21pm May 25, 2008 9:21pm
Quoting ahmadj77
Hi Lilmoe .. are you from Jordan ??
yep, that's what my profile says
  • #84,264
  • May 25, 2008 9:26pm May 25, 2008 9:26pm
Quoting lilmoe
yep, that's what my profile says
so you live in Amman ?
are working Individual in the market??
  • #84,265
  • May 25, 2008 9:29pm May 25, 2008 9:29pm
Quoting GodfreyH
There has been bullish divergence on the 30 min and hr chart, note also the lower volume as the new low was reached, however the 1 hr 50 ema (blue line) has in the past proved very stubborn, lets see if price breaks it .

These gann fans are pretty neat, thanks Lilmoe.
Godfrey volume is not true in Forex. It is broker volume. Asian hours do not reflect the same volume as would occur during heavy volume times such as euro and us sessions therefore it is not a valid technical indicator as you might use it for trading stocks and futures.

also most of the traders are likely away for the weekend (long weekend in both UK and US) leading to light volume trading.

I agree with you on the bullish div on rsi on a 1 hour chart . I went long off 204.40 for a quick scalp using a 5min chart.

Likely target 205ish
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #84,266
  • May 25, 2008 9:30pm May 25, 2008 9:30pm
Quoting ahmadj77
so you live in Amman ?
are working Individual in the market??
yep, western amman, and i do forex for a living
what about u?
  • #84,267
  • May 25, 2008 9:33pm May 25, 2008 9:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Godfrey volume is not true in Forex. It is broker volume. Asian hours do not reflect the same volume as would occur during heavy volume times such as euro and us sessions therefore it is not a valid technical indicator as you might use it for trading stocks and futures.

also most of the traders are likely away for the weekend (long weekend in both UK and US) leading to light volume trading.

I agree with you on the bullish div on rsi on a 1 hour chart . I went long off 204.40 for a quick scalp using a 5min chart.

Likely target 205ish
i'm thinking that the bullish divergence has already played out. i'm seeing a bearish divergence actually on m15, and went short off 204.80
  • #84,268
  • May 25, 2008 9:33pm May 25, 2008 9:33pm
Quoting lilmoe
i'm thinking that the bullish divergence has already played out. i'm seeing a bearish divergence actually on m15, and went short off 204.80

"added" a short that is.
  • #84,269
  • May 25, 2008 9:38pm May 25, 2008 9:38pm
Quoting lilmoe
"added" a short that is.
short untill 202.50
me too i'm living in Al jubehah
i'm a computer eng.
forex just for fun
  • #84,270
  • May 25, 2008 9:39pm May 25, 2008 9:39pm
cool, i'ma programmer myself
didn't give up on programming though, just love forex

Quoting ahmadj77
short untill 202.50
me too i'm living in Al jubehah
i'm a computer eng.
forex just for fun
  • #84,271
  • May 25, 2008 9:39pm May 25, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting GodfreyH
There has been bullish divergence on the 30 min and hr chart, note also the lower volume as the new low was reached, however the 1 hr 50 ema (blue line) has in the past proved very stubborn, lets see if price breaks it .

These gann fans are pretty neat, thanks Lilmoe.
I have attached a chart from esignal,..... it shows volume of GJ with a GFT platform datafeed. note 427 value this bar

Also note the low volume times .. .this is the Asian session . Volume does not pick up again till 1 hour before London Open.

The 2nd chart is a feed from FXCM ... note 1065 volume for same time period.

Therefore volume analysis is not relevant in forex as one broker may have high volume and one low. You cannot get a good feel for the overall market volume as forex is a decentralized system.

Whereas when I trade YM ( dj e-mini futures) volume is standard across all platforms as it is a centralized market , therefore I can do my volume spread analysis and confirm market delta( difference between buyers and sellers) to confirm trade signals and breakouts on the charts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.png Size: 226 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1.png Size: 194 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #84,272
  • May 25, 2008 9:41pm May 25, 2008 9:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Godfrey volume is not true in Forex. It is broker volume. Asian hours do not reflect the same volume as would occur during heavy volume times such as euro and us sessions therefore it is not a valid technical indicator as you might use it for trading stocks and futures.

also most of the traders are likely away for the weekend (long weekend in both UK and US) leading to light volume trading.

I agree with you on the bullish div on rsi on a 1 hour chart . I went long off 204.40 for a quick scalp using a 5min chart.

Likely target 205ish
...ok, well that raises two issues:

a) Volume should only be compared within a session and not between sessions, (I think the 2 previous lows were in the US session)

b) Would broker volume not be somewhat representative of overall volume, in the same way a poll or some other sampling method might be considered as a statistical representative of the total?
  • #84,273
  • Edited 9:52pm May 25, 2008 9:42pm | Edited 9:52pm
I see you answered the broker question above. Thanks.

I suppose though, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Several forex books mention volume as a means of identifying reversals etc. I'll continue to check my charts to see whether lower "broker" volume at double tops or bottoms (combined with indicator divergencies) increases the probabilities of a good reversal trade.
  • #84,274
  • May 25, 2008 9:49pm May 25, 2008 9:49pm
Quoting lilmoe
i'm thinking that the bullish divergence has already played out. i'm seeing a bearish divergence actually on m15, and went short off 204.80
no sell trigger in rsi or macd yet on 15 min , macd histogram still above zero line and fast still over slow.

also slope of rsi is up to neutral.

However not to worry , the max it should go to is 205.4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj15.jpg Size: 231 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #84,275
  • May 25, 2008 9:50pm May 25, 2008 9:50pm
anyone shorting GBP/USD or looking to short? if so any thoughts on a target for the week?
  • #84,276
  • May 25, 2008 9:52pm May 25, 2008 9:52pm
Quoting Evilgoat
anyone shorting GBP/USD or looking to short? if so any thoughts on a target for the week?
target 1.97
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #84,277
  • May 25, 2008 9:54pm May 25, 2008 9:54pm
Quoting Evilgoat
anyone shorting GBP/USD or looking to short? if so any thoughts on a target for the week?

just make sure u short GBP/USD below the daily pivot. that's what i would do. UK is on holiday, so is the US, i'm not sure if this thing will move as u might expect today.
  • #84,278
  • May 25, 2008 9:57pm May 25, 2008 9:57pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
target 1.97

cool I'm already short on EUR/USD from 1.5784
just went short GBP/USD at 1.9817
and might be short on geppy soon
  • #84,279
  • May 25, 2008 9:58pm May 25, 2008 9:58pm
Quoting lilmoe
just make sure u short GBP/USD below the daily pivot. that's what i would do. UK is on holiday, so is the US, i'm not sure if this thing will move as u might expect today.
Don't forget Germany and the rest of Europe, can we rely on them for the move?
  • #84,280
  • May 25, 2008 9:58pm May 25, 2008 9:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
no sell trigger in rsi or macd yet on 15 min , macd histogram still above zero line and fast still over slow.

also slope of rsi is up to neutral.

However not to worry , the max it should go to is 205.4

Attachment
there would be i guess if your broker opens 2 hours before that of IBFX like mine. but i guess i shouldn't be depending much on divergences or signals on sunday night/monday morning too much.

some people might be getting DPs wrong
GJ 205.01
GU 1.9800

yes, i did scalp 25 pips out of cable DP bounce. always works
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