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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #84,121
  • May 24, 2008 9:25am May 24, 2008 9:25am
Quoting hussin naiji
warta i have a nice time for u with green pips
bi bi sorry bay bay
haha yeah bro 199 in the way bi bi
  • #84,122
  • May 24, 2008 10:13am May 24, 2008 10:13am
For those who also trade GU, there is a clearly bearish divergence on 4H chart (See chart). It probably is a free money .. let's see how it plays out next week.
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  • #84,123
  • May 24, 2008 10:30am May 24, 2008 10:30am
Quoting ahmadj77
I'm new here ... i was learning a lot today
Thanks all and have a nice weekend
Welcome on board. Enjoy the ride.

Some might say while it lasts.
  • #84,124
  • May 24, 2008 10:52am May 24, 2008 10:52am
Hi skillwill
Thank you very much for your effort. Sorry for my late reply, actually I was unable to be here since my PC was not working. Thank you very much again.
Quoting skillwill
Hi Piptracer

Welcome to to forum. Unfortunately Aus no longer has his website which showed the key points to his different strategies.

To make it a little easier for you since you would have to search different threads I would advise the following.

For his 4hr/1hr strategy search the beginning of this thread. To make it easier for yourself since this thread has so many posts search "Auslanco" name and you would come across the key points if you serach from the beginning first.

For his 15 min strategy search http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=45076 and again search using his name to make it easier for you.

You can also search this thread for the 15 min strategy which is a shorter thread and different traders who trade his system also have highlighted in point form the basics.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=63831

All the best.

sw
  • #84,125
  • May 24, 2008 11:10am May 24, 2008 11:10am
Thanx Lilmoe and forexmoments for your welcoming ...
hope we can talk later.

I agree with you Hussin and Malcolmb14 the GbpJpy is down at least to 200. I saw it after the market closed yasterday "kabuse pattern".

any one can give me confirmation ??
good luck for all
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  • #84,126
  • May 24, 2008 11:44am May 24, 2008 11:44am
no confirmation yet, but i think we might have a little bounce up before we continue the journey down.

i'll post my analysis later on tonight.

Quoting ahmadj77
Thanx Lilmoe and forexmoments for your welcoming ...
hope we can talk later.

I agree with you Hussin and Malcolmb14 the GbpJpy is down at least to 200. I saw it after the market closed yasterday "kabuse pattern".

any one can give me confirmation ??
good luck for all
  • #84,127
  • May 24, 2008 3:48pm May 24, 2008 3:48pm
Here's another Chart bros, please let me know what you think:

The reason I went Long at 205.40-60 area was because it was a confluence of the 38.2 fib of the move down from 209 which finished on the 8th, and a 23.6 fib of the quick move up to mid 206 on the 22nd. I thought this area would be strong resistance and we would have a bounce from there.

Of course this area failed and price is being supported now above confluence of the 50 fib from the 209-199.75 move, the 50 fib of the 202.70-206.5 move, and the previous upper Range trendline (which looks like a bull flag to me). I believe a retest of 206.54 and 209.03 will be seen before any move below 202.70 this week.

Hope you are all enjoying the weekend.

Shakes
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  • #84,128
  • May 24, 2008 4:00pm May 24, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting lilmoe
no confirmation yet, but i think we might have a little bounce up before we continue the journey down.

i'll post my analysis later on tonight.

I think there will be a little bounce as the RSI in smaller time frames is oversold and needs to come out of this condition to allow further movement down in the pair.

Maybe is might `trickle` into 205 and get rejected from that level. This would be a 38.2% fib retracement of the move down on Friday.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #84,129
  • May 24, 2008 4:11pm May 24, 2008 4:11pm
Quoting shakesfx
Here's another Chart bros, please let me know what you think:

The reason I went Long at 205.40-60 area was because it was a confluence of the 38.2 fib of the move down from 209 which finished on the 8th, and a 23.6 fib of the quick move up to mid 206 on the 22nd. I thought this area would be strong resistance and we would have a bounce from there.

Of course this area failed and price is being supported now above confluence of the 50 fib from the 209-199.75 move, the 50 fib of the 202.70-206.5 move, and the previous upper Range trendline (which looks like a bull flag to me). I believe a retest of 206.54 and 209.03 will be seen before any move below 202.70 this week.

Hope you are all enjoying the weekend.

Shakes
The bull flag has completed its cycle as it hit the 76% fib of the previous cycle down.

If you place a linear regression channel on the bull flag the price closed below the middle of the channel on Friday.

We are sitting on the bottom of Keltner channel on a 2 hour , but on a 60 min we are under the bottom of the channel = sell trigger.

Also you failed to take into account one major thing .. 205 .. major whole number pivot point. Price went down through this easily on Fridayand close was below it. We need some serious buying pressure to take price back up through the 205 level .

On a positive note on a 60 min I am MACD and rapid rsi both show that a bounce should occur early next week . That bounce may be to 205.05 or 205.6.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #84,130
  • May 24, 2008 5:09pm May 24, 2008 5:09pm
on the 1 hour it could look something like this maybe ?
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  • #84,131
  • May 24, 2008 5:16pm May 24, 2008 5:16pm
venus squares saturn on the 26th,
the thick lines are previous actions of these events at different longitudes

make of it what you will
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #84,132
  • Edited 7:00pm May 24, 2008 6:33pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting Evilgoat
on the 1 hour it could look something like this maybe ?
hello evilgoat some folks said that GU is going to fall then EU will fall as well?, becouse I know tha if UJ falls Gj falls too but I did't know that if Gj falls GU falls too, please if you may explain to me the dilema I w'll apreciate it, thanks a lot and have a nice weekend.
The Chonchy
  • #84,133
  • May 24, 2008 8:02pm May 24, 2008 8:02pm
i see where u're coming from. what u're saying does make sense.

however, here are the reasons why i think we won't be heading up the way you think we would.

  1. there's really a massive bearish divergence on the 4h chart that i spotted on Quecee's chart (i'm not sure if that's what he meant by posting that chart, but i do give him credit for that)
  2. daily bearish flag (lower TL) has been retested and rejected, twice.
  3. i believe price is forming another bearish flag from 209's fall (blue channel) and the upper TL of that channel coincides with lower TL of daily bearish flag (channel)
  4. fibo fan 88.6 has been rejected (yes fib fan 88.6 is VERY important, at least in my analysis. i've back tested it big time and it proved very useful)
  5. i believe the bullish flag u mentioned in your chart has already finished it's cycle at 205.45, and 206.51 (FE 127.2) was exaggerated IMO, but i guess a test of the lower TL was price's target.

now, i've predicted a bounce from the price we're at right now for the following reasons:

  1. as i mentioned friday, and as malcomb mentioned earlier, price is wayyyyy oversold on most of the smaller timeframes. price will either move in a small range, or go up (but not much) until these price gets out of the OS levels.
  2. the upper TL of your bullish flag has been rejected (1st try)
  3. the last 4h candle on IBFX's platform is one "pesky" doji.

anything is possible in this market, and i did say before that price sets itself (especially GJ) the opposite way before a massive move. now, IF good ole GJ is going to visit 207 area, it will be limited to THAT area, and not more because lower TL of daily bearish flag (upper TL of 4h bearish flag) will be coinciding at that area too.

just as i said before, charts change by time, and when i told a member here that if price reaches 207 then 213 WILL be the target, i meant AT THAT TIME (may 14th) if price reached there then our daily bearish flag would have been breached and if it conforms as support, price will reach higher highs. this is not the case 1 week later (last thursday may 22).

i hope i'm clear.

here's my chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting shakesfx
Here's another Chart bros, please let me know what you think:

The reason I went Long at 205.40-60 area was because it was a confluence of the 38.2 fib of the move down from 209 which finished on the 8th, and a 23.6 fib of the quick move up to mid 206 on the 22nd. I thought this area would be strong resistance and we would have a bounce from there.

Of course this area failed and price is being supported now above confluence of the 50 fib from the 209-199.75 move, the 50 fib of the 202.70-206.5 move, and the previous upper Range trendline (which looks like a bull flag to me). I believe a retest of 206.54 and 209.03 will be seen before any move below 202.70 this week.

Hope you are all enjoying the weekend.

Shakes
  • #84,134
  • May 24, 2008 8:10pm May 24, 2008 8:10pm
Hello traders..
I'm a newbie here..
Have an interested in this thread and the system..
but,I still don't understand how to set up this system on the platform..
Is this system can use on MT4?
please.. anyone,help me..
  • #84,135
  • May 24, 2008 8:21pm May 24, 2008 8:21pm
welcome aboard master_zul, if what you mean auslanco's system, yes you can use mt4 platform. if you scroll down to the end of this page you will see bunch of link related with this topic...
  • #84,136
  • May 24, 2008 8:28pm May 24, 2008 8:28pm
another reason for staying short, and what this thread is all about. let's say we're out of this darn range. if so, then aus's system is signaling a good sell signal at 205 area (4h 5sma) provided that we weren't at end of the week. if we don't get a gap sunday night, then we should be headed south as soon as price reaches 5sma. gann and qqe crossed down.

here's a chart

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  • #84,137
  • May 24, 2008 8:34pm May 24, 2008 8:34pm
yesterday, i see that bear move on gj was rejected by 61.8 fib, and some ma's and also monthly pivot on my chart, and the last 4 1h bar was hold by 50 fib..
at the same time, move on uj on was rejected by daily S1, and the same 4 last up bar stuck on the 61.8 of yesterday move..
both daily closed under their daily pivot, witch should be good resistance, if up move is expected tomorrow..

just a thought..
  • #84,138
  • May 24, 2008 8:43pm May 24, 2008 8:43pm
the big picture
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Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #84,139
  • May 24, 2008 8:44pm May 24, 2008 8:44pm
bearish divergence is not confirmed on g-j. i'm not sure about g-u trend, i thought we just had a break upwards on daily.

Quoting malcolmb14
OK so let's have a look at what went on last week..... gj consolidated for days then had a very impulsive move up to 206.6 zone. Since then it has dropped back under that psychological whole number 205 , with ease I might add, adding to the bearish bias.

Here is the 8 hours chart ... there is a bearish divergence in the rapid rsi , and we tested the bottom of the flag on the daily.

I have made the assumption that the trend on the 8 hour is still down due to the lower high we set this week when compared to May 2nd. I plotted a fib extension on a 1-2-3 sell pattern on the 8 hour ( pink line) , and have plotted a 2 sd linear regression channel ( down ward sloping one).

Lets just assume that the gbpusd uptrend is weakening as , for the 1st time in days , we got a lower high on the daily , not just that but on a 60 min we have a double top at 1.9800 zone with bearish div on macd , and regular rsi . The strength in the GBPUSD is what has been keeping gj afloat.

So if the gu trend breaks down and in fact the high of 206.64 this week was a lower high on the 8 hour I have applied a downward projection for the gj for next week ( blue line from 205 down to 199).

From my analysis I have good reason to think the gj is going to collapse next week , and that we may see 199.5 by June 3rd or earlier. That would be onyl the 1st target , as looking back in late 2007 on the weekly there is a 10 week pattern , VERY similar to the one that is completing now. The drop of the gj after that pattern was completed was 4000 pips over the next few months.

Attachment
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #84,140
  • Edited 10:20pm May 24, 2008 8:48pm | Edited 10:20pm
this what i see @ nf chart..
it would be interesting if gu could drop bellow its dp tomorrow..
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