I see oil reaching 100 USD?! | Page 13 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

TOP 100 best indicators: post good indicators here 647 replies

The Right Trade to Make If You Are Targeting $100 Oil, by Kathy Lien 1 reply

Attachments: I see oil reaching 100 USD?!
Exit Attachments

I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

  • #241
  • Edited May 23, 2008 6:47am May 22, 2008 7:23am | Edited May 23, 2008 6:47am
Image wouldn't post. Darn.

Hey how about this one? Business Suit and Bow Tie optional.
  • #242
  • May 23, 2008 1:29am May 23, 2008 1:29am
Quoting merlin
narafa! good to see you my friend!

so back to OPEC, they control the supply side, yes, but they can also go into the futures market like any trader can. i am sure they have been trying to short this thing, this is so freakin bad for them! at this rate there will be an alternative to oil within 5 years LOL

looking from a trading standpoint, oil markets look ripe for a hard fall. im not crazy enough to go shorting it right now (obviously you are LOLOL), but we are at a point where the market is gathering "weak longs" (weve been here before, twice i think LOL). in a few weeks/months there will be enough weak guys on board to create a panic when prices retreat. ...is it me or have we had this same exact conversation before? LOL
LOL...Ya, I almost got burned in this one....Got out with very small profit...Strangley, after I shorted, the market collapsed $3 during the US session and then turned higher to the open during the last hour where I covered my short...Looks like this wasn't the top in a sense..

Anyway, still waiting


Thanks,

Nader
  • #243
  • May 23, 2008 1:31am May 23, 2008 1:31am
Quoting fierceman
Guys, what happened to trading WITH the trend and never trying to pick tops? I'm sure there are going to be some shorting opportunities along the way, but the trend is unmistakably uni-directional and we are in uncharted waters in terms of price so there are no reliable resistance levels.

Good luck to all of you who are shorting this most powerful of up-trends, but don't get caught with your overalls down or, much like in jail, you'll get f*&%ed.

merlin, don't bet on an alternative to oil being found so soon... Some of the most basic laws of physics are against you, and I think OPEC is quite aware of that. Contrary to the beliefs put forward by some people in this thread, OPEC is not a group of inept idiots - they are one of the most powerful organizations in the world whose leaders are some of the best educated people in the field, so rest assured they know what is in their best interest - much more so than you and I.

Man, don't get us wrong, we are just trying to be contrarians when everyone is bullish, that's all...It's not about picking tops and bottoms, rather than trading against the masses because we believe there is nobody left to buy at current prices at least for the time being...

Anyway, the market says its' word at the end of the day and I was mistaken, there is still more demand in oil and it seems that it wasn't a good time to be a contrarian...

Another thing is that you don't be aggressive in your position sizing when you are trading against the trend...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #244
  • May 28, 2008 2:40pm May 28, 2008 2:40pm
Crude came back upto weekly pivot. Curious if it will break it or roll back over and continue its retracement. Note daily levels were for wednesday:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude 30min.PNG Size: 28 KB
  • #245
  • Jun 6, 2008 12:53pm Jun 6, 2008 12:53pm
Oil kicked butt today. $11 in a single session...

Morgan said oil $150 by July 4.

$11 to go
  • #246
  • Jun 14, 2008 7:22pm Jun 14, 2008 7:22pm
http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/n...rs_logo_94.png
Saudis planning July oil output increase: report

Fri Jun 13, 11:25 PM ET

Saudi Arabia plans to increase its oil output in July by some half-million barrels a day, a sign the country is growing concerned about the impact of high crude prices on the global economy, The New York Times reported.

Citing analysts and oil traders briefed by Saudi officials, the Times said in its Saturday editions the plans by the world's largest oil exporter had been privately disclosed recently by Saudi officials. The analysts declined to be identified for fear of being cut off from information from the Saudis in future.

"We would welcome any and all increases in oil production, including from Saudi Arabia," White House spokesman Tony Fratto told the newspaper.

President George W. Bush pressed for increased production in two visits to Saudi Arabia earlier this year.

Ibrahim al-Muhanna, an adviser at the Saudi Petroleum Ministry, declined to comment on the production increase, the Times said, although he noted Saudi Arabia was uncomfortable with oil prices, saying, "Our goal is to bring back stability to the oil market."

The increase, which the Times said may be made public as early as next week, could put the Saudis' output at 10 million barrels a day, which would be its highest-ever output if sustained, the Times said. The current level is 9.45 million barrels daily.

The move was seen as an indication Saudi Arabia was nervous about the political and economic impact of higher oil prices, the report added, with oil demand dropping in developing countries, including the United States.

Oil prices have risen 40 percent to nearly $140 a barrel this year, causing record U.S. gasoline prices, and some analysts forecast $200 a barrel prices this year.

"This clearly represents the biggest test for them," the newspaper quoted John Kilduff, a senior vice president at the brokerage firm MF Global, as saying, as the move could backfire if investors fail to respond to the extra supplies.
  • #247
  • Jul 21, 2008 12:13am Jul 21, 2008 12:13am
Quoting fierceman
Guys, what happened to trading WITH the trend and never trying to pick tops? I'm sure there are going to be some shorting opportunities along the way, but the trend is unmistakably uni-directional and we are in uncharted waters in terms of price so there are no reliable resistance levels.

Good luck to all of you who are shorting this most powerful of up-trends
Did anyone short that move last week? This could be the long awaited correction. Any thoughts? Important 50% fib is at $100.00.
  • #248
  • Jul 21, 2008 4:34am Jul 21, 2008 4:34am
Quoting fierceman
Did anyone short that move last week? This could be the long awaited correction. Any thoughts? Important 50% fib is at $100.00.
If it is, as you say, mostly unidirectional, a correction and an uptrend..
then why are you looking to short instead of buying a dip?

I'm curious more from a behavioral standpoint than whatever FA or TA or not may be behind it, really.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #249
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:01am Jul 21, 2008 6:01am
Quoting SeekingLight
If it is, as you say, mostly unidirectional, a correction and an uptrend..
then why are you looking to short instead of buying a dip?

I'm curious more from a behavioral standpoint than whatever FA or TA or not may be behind it, really.
I am not looking to short it. That's why I mentioned the 50% level at $100.00 - perhaps good place to start building longs again. I was just wondering if any of the other guys here shorted it.
  • #250
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:05am Jul 21, 2008 6:05am
It's interesting how this thread's title still makes sense, but in the other way now.

  • #251
  • Jul 22, 2008 1:03am Jul 22, 2008 1:03am
All I know is that there is one single gas station near where I live that has kept the price at $4.79 for several weeks now without a single change. Not one. Every single station in California updates daily, and they are a Shell station even, but not a flinch I have witnessed.

I'm gonna stick with those fine people and fuel there every day, and let you happy fellas trade the oil drum corrections.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #252
  • Jul 22, 2008 7:15am Jul 22, 2008 7:15am
Sometimes a particular station, if it is privately owned, has a beef with the oil company they are aligned with. So they keep the price the same for long periods of time above the prevailing market to stifle gas purchases to try to get out of the contract so they can get a better, profitable deal from another oil co.
  • #253
  • Jul 22, 2008 11:23am Jul 22, 2008 11:23am
Quoting cesarnc
It's interesting how this thread's title still makes sense, but in the other way now.

lol. I thought i was alone
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #254
  • Jul 22, 2008 5:40pm Jul 22, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting Mr demark
lol. I thought i was alone

lol ....Merlin pointed it out a while ago too. About it easily going from a bullish to a bearish thread title.

This is the strongest 'correction like' activity so far. Hopefully, for the sake of the global economy, we get a decent correction.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #255
  • Jul 22, 2008 9:29pm Jul 22, 2008 9:29pm
Quoting SunTrader
Sometimes a particular station, if it is privately owned, has a beef with the oil company they are aligned with. So they keep the price the same for long periods of time above the prevailing market to stifle gas purchases to try to get out of the contract so they can get a better, profitable deal from another oil co.
Well, I'm renting in a rough part of town (here for a short internship) so they probably have a little more fight in 'em, these guys
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #256
  • Jul 23, 2008 2:06am Jul 23, 2008 2:06am
Quoting cesarnc
It's interesting how this thread's title still makes sense, but in the other way now.

maybe the other nonsense number should be $250 now

maybe that will be the target,
but why nonsense?
it makes sense, since the production is slow, and the Demand is high on the fuel.
so i think we will see not just $250, a way higher price will be within 10 years in my estimations.
  • #257
  • Jul 25, 2008 9:25am Jul 25, 2008 9:25am
Crude Awakening: Peak Oil & The End of Cheap Energy:

Part 1: http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...AZHCqAPEufCwCA

Part 2: http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...HJOGqgPSvuihCA
  • #258
  • Jul 26, 2008 3:30pm Jul 26, 2008 3:30pm
Quoting tarektm
maybe the other nonsense number should be $250 now

maybe that will be the target,
but why nonsense?
it makes sense, since the production is slow, and the Demand is high on the fuel.
so i think we will see not just $250, a way higher price will be within 10 years in my estimations.
Why not? Things got completely out of control...

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bes...parabolic1.png

Check Bush dad's tiny winy peak and Bush son's fat ass run... Dad must be proud, likely...

$250 is crazy? Well, $100 was unthinkable 10 years ago, when it was around $20
  • #259
  • Jul 27, 2008 2:29pm Jul 27, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting cesarnc
It's interesting how this thread's title still makes sense, but in the other way now.



yeah im starting to smell a short opportunity here. two of my best fundies trades in the past couple years have been shorting this beast, and the chart is looking about the same as it does now. remember those trades, narafa? with that said, i wouldnt even consider shorting this long term, it would be more like a robbery where im in and out with the quickness LOL. the fundamentals are with the bulls right now, demand is simply growing faster than supply. economics always win at the end of the day
Relax and be happy.
  • #260
  • Jul 29, 2008 5:48am Jul 29, 2008 5:48am
Unfortunately, all major trends will come to an end, sooner or later.

First sign of weakening trend in form of;

  1. Double top @ 146$ area, target reach (122$ area)
  2. Trendline broken
  3. Price making this years first lower low

Not calling this trend for an end, as price could do whatever it want regardless of any analyze, but from an technical point of view, short looks tempting below/from 121 $.
If so, would 110 $ followed by 100 be unreasonable ? Pure speculation of course.

Also noticed that this monthly candle have been the biggest bear-candle since 2002.

I must admit that I'm looking forward to see how oil-prices develop over the next weeks.

Wouldn't it be fun to enter short a few days before an potential energy crisis lol?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: clu8.jpg Size: 132 KB
Measure twice, cut once
0 traders viewing now