Money & Pain
Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #83,742
- May 22, 2008 5:30pm May 22, 2008 5:30pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
I know it is easy to comment retrospectively on what happened today but i am just speaking loudly and my 2 charts at different times of the day illustrate my actions.
I dont talk much but follow most GJ threads in here. My analysis are mostly on S/R levels, Fib levels and on price actions- More like naked trading without indicators.
Everyone who has been trading for some time know what ranging and trending markets are. most in here know that GJ has been stubbornly trading between 202.8 and 203.80-204.2. This morning i saw GJ dropping after london open and felt that it was a bounce off the resistence at 203.7 and since i was anticipating a weak GBP retail price, it just confirmed that it is heading to 202.8 or even further down. u can see my sell trades on the chart.
But surprise retail sales/ i was away from PC and GJ took off and i was late to party.
Now the most important thing to notice that traders all over the world saw GJ ranging in the tight range for 3-4 days- very unusual for this beast to restrained within such tight margin. so when traders saw the break of 204.2. i knew instantly GJ would explode and there would be no retracement for hours on end.
Since i was already late to the party, i had no option but to hedge my sell trades and take off the buy trades at appropriate time but this was the trickiest thing to do. since if u unload the hedge at the wrong time, it will end up causing u losses more than profits or breakeven.
as u can see from my first chart i had GJ targetting 206.5 from the red trendline and made up to remove my hedges at 206.5 and this decision was made long before GJ got there. Then i noticed GJ stalling for 3 hours at 206 which made me doubt that GJ wont get to 206.5 . so i unloaded half my hedge at 206 but no sooner did i do that ,than the price raced to my trendline resistence at 206.50 where i unloaded rest of my hedge.
I am now waiting for retracement from 206.50 unload my shorts.
This is where price action is supporting me and hope that it retraces at least 50 percent of todays move so i can off load my sell trades.
As u can see that 4 hourly has formed a nice pin bar and i hoping this 4 hour pinbar signals a reversal and help me unloading my sell trades.next 4-8 hours will tell where price is headed.
I have seen gj move 700 pips in a session only to retrace all 700 moves 2-3 times before but i still believe that this breakout was pretty strong and it might start its journey further north after a smaller retracement tonight.
I will shut up for now. sorry for the rant.
I dont talk much but follow most GJ threads in here. My analysis are mostly on S/R levels, Fib levels and on price actions- More like naked trading without indicators.
Everyone who has been trading for some time know what ranging and trending markets are. most in here know that GJ has been stubbornly trading between 202.8 and 203.80-204.2. This morning i saw GJ dropping after london open and felt that it was a bounce off the resistence at 203.7 and since i was anticipating a weak GBP retail price, it just confirmed that it is heading to 202.8 or even further down. u can see my sell trades on the chart.
But surprise retail sales/ i was away from PC and GJ took off and i was late to party.
Now the most important thing to notice that traders all over the world saw GJ ranging in the tight range for 3-4 days- very unusual for this beast to restrained within such tight margin. so when traders saw the break of 204.2. i knew instantly GJ would explode and there would be no retracement for hours on end.
Since i was already late to the party, i had no option but to hedge my sell trades and take off the buy trades at appropriate time but this was the trickiest thing to do. since if u unload the hedge at the wrong time, it will end up causing u losses more than profits or breakeven.
as u can see from my first chart i had GJ targetting 206.5 from the red trendline and made up to remove my hedges at 206.5 and this decision was made long before GJ got there. Then i noticed GJ stalling for 3 hours at 206 which made me doubt that GJ wont get to 206.5 . so i unloaded half my hedge at 206 but no sooner did i do that ,than the price raced to my trendline resistence at 206.50 where i unloaded rest of my hedge.
I am now waiting for retracement from 206.50 unload my shorts.
This is where price action is supporting me and hope that it retraces at least 50 percent of todays move so i can off load my sell trades.
As u can see that 4 hourly has formed a nice pin bar and i hoping this 4 hour pinbar signals a reversal and help me unloading my sell trades.next 4-8 hours will tell where price is headed.
I have seen gj move 700 pips in a session only to retrace all 700 moves 2-3 times before but i still believe that this breakout was pretty strong and it might start its journey further north after a smaller retracement tonight.
I will shut up for now. sorry for the rant.
- #83,746
- May 22, 2008 5:43pm May 22, 2008 5:43pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 3,112 Posts
Nice analysis iksh. I would have bet money on it breaking 202.8 last night for a big fall. Actually, I did bet money, and now I am good bit poorer.
- #83,747
- May 22, 2008 5:45pm May 22, 2008 5:45pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Apr 2008 | 2,468 Posts
Thank you Iksh for taking the time to post your indepth analysis bro.
Good to see there's a few of us that have been holding Shorts. I loaded a Short at 206.50 area with a TP at the 50 Fib also, which is where I'll cancel my original Short at B/E hopefully. I may reconsider Longs from that area if the PA supports, but also we have major home news (US) at 1400GMT tomorrow which is expected to have the lowest reading in 19 years which may shock the market into a reversal of this rally. All the best and thanks
Good to see there's a few of us that have been holding Shorts. I loaded a Short at 206.50 area with a TP at the 50 Fib also, which is where I'll cancel my original Short at B/E hopefully. I may reconsider Longs from that area if the PA supports, but also we have major home news (US) at 1400GMT tomorrow which is expected to have the lowest reading in 19 years which may shock the market into a reversal of this rally. All the best and thanks
- #83,748
- May 22, 2008 5:54pm May 22, 2008 5:54pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Apr 2008 | 2,468 Posts
they all are, he had to add a couple of stupid comments even after i gave him some praise. i tend not to like traders who don't give in to their mistakes or not show up on this thread unless they're in profit. i have more respect for those who lose and say: "i was wrong"...
Thankfully this is becoming less frequent as time goes on....I don't mind posting my losses...remember that Short I held from 198 to 208 hahaha, only to offload and watch it retrace back to 199.75 
Never mind, laughter makes the world go round!
- #83,751
- May 22, 2008 6:04pm May 22, 2008 6:04pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
As you know I've been wrong quite a lot.
lilmoe's crapper: "i'll be back"
- #83,753
- May 22, 2008 6:05pm May 22, 2008 6:05pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Apr 2008 | 2,468 Posts
There was no way i was gonna hold those shorts. but such is life and i was away at the crucial point of break out and by time i got back, closing the shorts would have resulted in a good loss to me.
traders all over the world were watching that tight range and once it broke out, nothing was gonna hold it. so i had no option but to hedge it and limit my losses and cover them up by getting the hedges off at the right time and hoping the retracemnet run down enough to cover my loss.
But looks like it might actually work nicely for me. i have now profitted the most of the upmove from 204.43 where i had placed my hedge buy and removed it- half at 206 and rest at 206.50. so i got 80 percent of the upmove.
Looks like again traders all over have noticed the 4 hour pinbar and reacting nicely to the 4 hour pinbar. but i wouldnt dare place a short trade here basing on that pinbar in midst of such strong breakout and when there is room for further move north. Just hoping for good retracement.
- #83,755
- May 22, 2008 6:10pm May 22, 2008 6:10pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #83,756
- May 22, 2008 6:11pm May 22, 2008 6:11pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
- #83,757
- May 22, 2008 6:13pm May 22, 2008 6:13pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #83,759
- May 22, 2008 6:23pm May 22, 2008 6:23pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #83,760
- May 22, 2008 6:37pm May 22, 2008 6:37pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: "As Above So Below" | 6,206 Posts
I agree with you completely. We will not see 209.
I agree with you as well we wont see 209, more like 220
the weeklies and monthly are just getting started
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"