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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #83,701
  • May 22, 2008 3:02pm May 22, 2008 3:02pm
Something for the Bulls...
Attached Image
  • #83,702
  • May 22, 2008 3:02pm May 22, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting shakesfx
Also, the divergences are starting to work through the Charts, the 30min shows it best...what do you bros think??
Although not clear yet, I think I'm seeing a possible divergence set up forming on 4hr chart (zl macd 12,26,9). I don't see anything on 30 min though.
  • #83,703
  • May 22, 2008 3:04pm May 22, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting karmostaji
Everything is very clear if you keep it simple

http://img169.imageshack.us/img169/3035/gjgd6.gif
Let me see .... bear flag was broken on daily ... dj -30 dropping 500 points in days , even today it has only gone up 24 points ... nothing compared to drop.

Luckily for gj longs the usd was getting weaker on higher oil prices and gold rising . Typically when markets drop gj drops also , but continued weaknessi n USD made gu go higher and higher holding up GJ. If you notice today is test of the bottom of the bear flag .


Not that clear Karmo.

Todays move was VERY impulsive ... almost to impulsive with the dj-30 moving very little.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #83,704
  • May 22, 2008 3:07pm May 22, 2008 3:07pm
Malcolmb always admire your analysis. What's your take on the current situation. Is there any hope for Bears?
  • #83,705
  • May 22, 2008 3:11pm May 22, 2008 3:11pm
well, from my understanding, it basically means that americans are liquidating stocks (DJI drops) and NOT buying yens with these dollars they get (u-j going up)... makes you wonder what they're doing with all that money...

Quoting VEC
does anyone have any ideas concerning why carry and dow jones isnt correlating any more?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #83,706
  • May 22, 2008 3:15pm May 22, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting karmostaji
Couple of days ago I said 207, people were laughing

207 is only 100 pips away now, guess who's laughing now
Karmo .

You were mentioning 207 at 205 ... it then dropped to 202.7 .. only 230 pip draw down. The dj dropping woth lower highs on 4 hour said NOTHING about going long , nor did market conditions. The ONLY thing that suggested long OFF 203 was the bullish divergence last night on the 30 min on macd and rsi.

But hats off to you for hanging on in there and believing in your trade. I would love to see the set up and what made you stay in the trade 2 days ago. If the USD had not maintained weakness ( typically bonds rise as markets drop) you would have been in trouble , last time dj moved down 500 points in days GJ dropped 1000.

I would love to learn from you and would appreciate you showing us what it is that you saw in your charts that made you believe so much on the long trade when everything was screaming short.
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  • #83,707
  • May 22, 2008 3:22pm May 22, 2008 3:22pm
didn't want to comment on his chart, because it really didn't make sense to me. the bear flag was once again rejected. and until it's breached, i'll still and always be bearish bias. please take a look at evern 1000+pip drop in GJ, there was actually a substantial rise before that drop. buying bottoms and selling tops, i'd really think they'd want to sell GJ all the way from the top if it's going down, i mean down, that's how the big folks work.



Quoting malcolmb14
Let me see .... bear flag was broken on daily ... dj -30 dropping 500 points in days , even today it has only gone up 24 points ... nothing compared to drop.

Luckily for gj longs the usd was getting weaker on higher oil prices and gold rising . Typically when markets drop gj drops also , but continued weaknessi n USD made gu go higher and higher holding up GJ. If you notice today is test of the bottom of the bear flag .


Not that clear Karmo.

Todays move was VERY impulsive ... almost to impulsive with the dj-30 moving very little.
  • #83,708
  • May 22, 2008 3:22pm May 22, 2008 3:22pm
It may be a bit silly... but I took a short at 206.2, stop above today's high target 205....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gepday.GIF Size: 18 KB
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #83,709
  • May 22, 2008 3:24pm May 22, 2008 3:24pm
Quoting Infinity
It may be a bit silly... but I took a short at 206.2, stop above today's high target 205....
Do you mean stop above 206.80ish bro?
  • #83,710
  • May 22, 2008 3:25pm May 22, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting vinesh2
Malcolmb always admire your analysis. What's your take on the current situation. Is there any hope for Bears?
I have no idea .... this market has been behaving VERY strangly the last 2 weeks.

I have been having a great time trading YM futures , it moved 400 points MOnday , 400 Tuesday , only 250 yesterday and 400 points today in a nice 70 point channel . I find it easier to day trade than GJ , although have been taking pips out of GJ this week also on a 5 min chart

Why bother worrying about swing trading GJ when I can my 100- 200 points a day in YM using my volume spread anlysis.

I do not stress about positions , draw downs etc etc overnight as i am just day trading right now.

The only thing I can comment on right now on GJ is that the curve of the chart is way to steep = impulsive move = strong retracement. We could well see a retracement to 204.5 (50% of the move up today) during the Asian session. In fact we are getting an inside bar forming on the 2 hour right now.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #83,711
  • May 22, 2008 3:27pm May 22, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting Scrat
well, from my understanding, it basically means that americans are liquidating stocks (DJI drops) and NOT buying yens with these dollars they get (u-j going up)... makes you wonder what they're doing with all that money...
They are buying OIL futures ..lol ... oil will be $50,000 per barrel at this rate and i will go back to the old days of riding around in my horse and cart
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #83,712
  • May 22, 2008 3:27pm May 22, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting shakesfx
Do you mean stop above 206.80ish bro?
206.53 is the high on my chart.....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #83,713
  • May 22, 2008 3:29pm May 22, 2008 3:29pm
Quoting shakesfx
Do you mean stop above 206.80ish bro?
stop above today high

his target is 205 .. I think he gets it plus some... think 204.2
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #83,714
  • May 22, 2008 3:31pm May 22, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting malcolmb14
stop above today high

his target is 205 .. I think he gets it plus some... think 204.2
dont tell me....i just got out of my shorts.
  • #83,715
  • May 22, 2008 3:32pm May 22, 2008 3:32pm
Quoting Infinity
206.53 is the high on my chart.....
No, what I meant was....I'm confused now....never mind bro

Just a bit dizzy looking at that Everest Mountain Spike on my chart....
  • #83,716
  • May 22, 2008 3:32pm May 22, 2008 3:32pm
Quoting alearner
dont tell me....i just got out of my shorts.

Opps!
  • #83,717
  • May 22, 2008 3:33pm May 22, 2008 3:33pm
Quoting Infinity
It may be a bit silly... but I took a short at 206.2, stop above today's high target 205....

Nice trade .. check out bearish div macd 10 min

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #83,718
  • May 22, 2008 3:34pm May 22, 2008 3:34pm
Quoting ephisi
except you are a scalper, your SL matterss alot. i always use 100pips SL, dis gives GJ enuf room to dance around even when news comes comes out,

Remember price is news news is price, d market probably already knew d news was good, and it reflected in price,

Basically i just trade what ever i see on GJ charts, i look at UJ GU i look at oil , gold , DOW.

but only for confirmation of trades, if i dont get confirmation i just trade wht GJ tells me, bcos i know GJ wont always follow UJ, sometimes it follows GU

I agree with you Ephisi and your earlier post about Auslanco's system. (and in the same breath, I disagree with you Malcolmb).

While several persons were running around like headless chickens wondering what's happening!!!, the signs were crystal clear. anyone who even remotely follows Auslanco's strategy would see that this was a clear upmove trade. Every person on this thread owes it to themselves to, at the very least, be familiar with the basics of Auslanco's strategy.

As Elder says in his book ( A big thank you , Scrat), the best strategies that stand the test of changing markets are simple. They work because there are fewer elements that make up the system to break.

I believe you guys complicate trading by looking at the DOW, and looking at other currencies. Yes, these thing help, but if they are off you are going to be crippled in taking a trade. Just simply trade what your chart shows you.

Thats another thing too, with any currency their are 2 basic market conditions. Ranging and trending. Either you only trade one of them or you have strategies for both.

Several people got caught flat footed, because they were trading as if they were still in a range bound market, which is trading counter-trend. So they were buying when price going down and selling when price going up. This is great for a ranging market, but you need to recognize when price momemtum has stepped outside of that market and its time to put on a new strategy hat. The trending hat.

Incidentally, IF there was bearish divergence on 1hr /4hr chart the decision by some to go short at 204.30 (the 50% fib) would have been correct. But with absolutely no divergence, as had been in the previous few cases, this was a very risky decision.
  • #83,719
  • May 22, 2008 3:38pm May 22, 2008 3:38pm
Nice inside bar 2 hour with RSI in overbought and turning down.

Candle ends in 20 min.

I will place short at bottom of candle 205.80 for drop to 205 or 204.60

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.jpg Size: 121 KB
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  • #83,720
  • May 22, 2008 3:38pm May 22, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting GodfreyH
I agree with you Ephisi and your earlier post about Auslanco's system. (and in the same breath, I disagree with you Malcolmb).

While several persons were running around like headless chickens wondering what's happening!!!, the signs were crystal clear. anyone who even remotely follows Auslanco's strategy would see that this was a clear upmove trade. Every person on this thread owes it to themselves to, at the very least, be familiar with the basics of Auslanco's strategy.

As Elder says in his book ( A big thank you , Scrat), the best strategies that stand the test of changing markets are simple. They work because there are fewer elements that make up the system to break.

I believe you guys complicate trading by looking at the DOW, and looking at other currencies. Yes, these thing help, but if they are off you are going to be crippled in taking a trade. Just simply trade what your chart shows you.

Thats another thing too, with any currency their are 2 basic market conditions. Ranging and trending. Either you only trade one of them or you have strategies for both.

Several people got caught flat footed, because they were trading as if they were still in a range bound market, which is trading counter-trend. So they were buying when price going down and selling when price going up. This is great for a ranging market, but you need to recognize when price momemtum has stepped outside of that market and its time to put on a new strategy hat. The trending hat.

Incidentally, IF there was bearish divergence on 1hr /4hr chart the decision by some to go short at 204.30 (the 50% fib) would have been correct. But with absolutely no divergence, as had been in the previous few cases, this was a very risky decision.
you say it better than I do, great post
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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