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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #83,601
  • May 22, 2008 10:35am May 22, 2008 10:35am
Quoting lilmoe
at the same time, IF this is where it stops, i'm thinking it will go down all those pips it went up.
I am thinking the same....but waiting for some confirmation.....If the base of the old daily channel holds, it could go down a few......
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #83,602
  • May 22, 2008 10:42am May 22, 2008 10:42am
Does anyone understand the (temporal at least) decoupling between the DOW and GU/UJ that has happened over the past few days? Hypotheses anyone?
  • #83,603
  • May 22, 2008 10:43am May 22, 2008 10:43am
uj 1h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1.GIF Size: 27 KB
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #83,604
  • May 22, 2008 10:44am May 22, 2008 10:44am
Took my hedges off I am thinking this thing is ready for a retrace. Here it is one last time you guys
Attached Image
  • #83,605
  • May 22, 2008 10:45am May 22, 2008 10:45am
Quoting Spectator
Does anyone understand the (temporal at least) decoupling between the DOW and GU/UJ that has happened over the past few days? Hypotheses anyone?
There is always more than one force that drives markets. One outside force can create a large deal of the push, but it's not the only one. Now, for instance, another force instead of the DOW has taken presidence.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #83,606
  • May 22, 2008 10:46am May 22, 2008 10:46am
Quoting Infinity
I am thinking the same....but waiting for some confirmation.....If the base of the old daily channel holds, it could go down a few......
Thanks for 5ma advice.

one last short.

(also dow sort of heading down)
  • #83,607
  • May 22, 2008 10:48am May 22, 2008 10:48am
weekly r1 is at 205.70 if this 4h candle closes below it, then at least a retracement is guaranteed.
  • #83,608
  • May 22, 2008 10:49am May 22, 2008 10:49am
M15 look nice for short again and doji at M30
  • #83,609
  • May 22, 2008 10:49am May 22, 2008 10:49am
Quoting Infinity
uj 1h
Excellent Infinity! Thanks for posting that chart. That chart gives us 2 options on u/j. Either short at the top and have a stop just about the trendline or wait until a break ( which may not happen) and then buy with a stop just below. Either way looks to be a good play out. I personally just shorted because of the trendline touch and the fact that it's moved away from confluence of my system as well with a stop above the trendline. If that breaks, then I will reverse the position or stay flat - I haven't yet decided due to the already exhausting move.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #83,610
  • May 22, 2008 10:51am May 22, 2008 10:51am
But, This is THE TOP, by the Books. Have a look, and please Comment this. To me looks very Bearish, standard retracement. My Targets:

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-136.png


http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-135.png


http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-134.png
  • #83,611
  • May 22, 2008 10:51am May 22, 2008 10:51am
Quoting mike w
Excellent Infinity! Thanks for posting that chart. That chart gives us 2 options on u/j. Either short at the top and have a stop just about the trendline or wait until a break ( which may not happen) and then buy with a stop just below. Either way looks to be a good play out. I personally just shorted because of the trendline touch and the fact that it's moved away from confluence of my system as well.
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #83,612
  • May 22, 2008 10:52am May 22, 2008 10:52am
Quoting mike w
There is always more than one force that drives markets. One outside force can create a large deal of the push, but it's not the only one. Now, for instance, another force instead of the DOW has taken presidence.
Hey, What's up Mikey. Still hangin in there. Only down few pips today which I don't think is too bad considering everyone seems to be short and down a lot more. Mike if you don't mind sharing some of your strategies please pm me. Thanks.
  • #83,613
  • May 22, 2008 10:54am May 22, 2008 10:54am
Quoting mike w
There is always more than one force that drives markets. One outside force can create a large deal of the push, but it's not the only one. Now, for instance, another force instead of the DOW has taken presidence.
Of course, but this isn't a particularly helpful response, just restating the observation. The problem I am having at is what is that force at present. Gold bullish, oil bullish and lowered growth predictions for the US...have I missed something about Japan? Clearly signals from the UK that they are going to keep rates high, but this also suggests that they are willing to trade a recession now to tackle long term inflation (putting to one side the issue of whether they can fight imported inflation this way...as so nicely put by Stiglitz a few days ago commenting on the RBA.)

The shift in behaviour has been quite abrupt...and although I haven't been particularly focussed on the markets this past week, I would have thought that a cause or set of causes for such abrupt behavioural change should have been obvious.
  • #83,614
  • May 22, 2008 10:55am May 22, 2008 10:55am
Queece you out there bro?
  • #83,615
  • May 22, 2008 10:57am May 22, 2008 10:57am
Quoting alearner
Looks like its going to retrace soon?
Retracing now from 81.80 but I'm still long, 82.30 then 83.78 long as the Dow stays positive.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #83,616
  • May 22, 2008 10:57am May 22, 2008 10:57am
Quoting Piters
But, This is THE TOP, by the Books. Have a look, and please Comment this. To me looks very Bearish, standard retracement. My Targets:
Yes...yes... yes...yes ..very bearish .. very bearish ..no question about it .. no need to question anymore ..

j/k
  • #83,617
  • May 22, 2008 10:58am May 22, 2008 10:58am
bro, i'm bear to the core,

i have bear blood in my veins

Quoting Piters
But, This is THE TOP, by the Books. Have a look, and please Comment this. To me looks very Bearish, standard retracement. My Targets:

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-136.png


http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-135.png


http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-134.png
  • #83,618
  • May 22, 2008 11:02am May 22, 2008 11:02am
Quoting DutchTrader
Retracing now from 81.80 but I'm still long, 82.30 then 83.78 long as the Dow stays positive.
Would love to know what made you go long in the first place.
  • #83,619
  • May 22, 2008 11:07am May 22, 2008 11:07am
Buy a break of 206.30 , sell here with SL above 206.30 or wait for a retracement to long?
I AM NOT AGAINST ANY RETARD. I AM JUST AGAINST ANY WRONG/LOSING TRADES.
  • #83,620
  • May 22, 2008 11:13am May 22, 2008 11:13am
Quoting Spectator
Of course, but this isn't a particularly helpful response, just restating the observation. The problem I am having at is what is that force at present. Gold bullish, oil bullish and lowered growth predictions for the US...have I missed something about Japan? Clearly signals from the UK that they are going to keep rates high, but this also suggests that they are willing to trade a recession now to tackle long term inflation (putting to one side the issue of whether they can fight imported inflation this way...as so nicely put by Stiglitz a few days ago commenting on the RBA.)

The shift in behaviour has been quite abrupt...and although I haven't been particularly focussed on the markets this past week, I would have thought that a cause or set of causes for such abrupt behavioural change should have been obvious.
I agree that the shift in behaviour has been abrupt, but wouldn't you consider that just to be the normal course of price? The usd, after that initial comeback, is now heading back to hell. I think we'll have this for a while because it's going to take more than one time out to beat out those higher lows and highs. I think this is happening because speculators are getting nervous and don't want to be in any solid position without confirmation from price (I know I don't) and it seems that confirmation from price is hard to come by in these past couple weeks. I'd like to hear more of your thoughts as you seem more solid with fundamental analysis than I do. Thanks and I hope I could bring up something that maybe got overlooked- although I doubt it lol.
I dream, therefore I become.
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