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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #83,321
  • May 21, 2008 4:20pm May 21, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I am getting reveveral off 203.30....

OK here's what I see bros. 4hr Z Stoch crossed down, QQE down, Z MACD Down. Price below 5 SMA, Gann and 200 SMA. Reversal Bearish Doji formation and a throw of the dice. I'm holding Short till tomorrow and need to chill now. Reversal is boxed on the chart, if it doesn't work, well never mind...this market isn't exactly playing by rules this week. SL above 203.80, TP 199.85. Goodnight all and see you at London Open!
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  • #83,322
  • May 21, 2008 4:22pm May 21, 2008 4:22pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I did a nice 50 pip trade earlier 203.10 into 202,.60 . I do not see it is an issue .. maybe even lower ....
  • #83,323
  • May 21, 2008 4:23pm May 21, 2008 4:23pm
Quoting lilmoe
the only thing worrying me is that DJ is up for a 200 point retracement, what makes me sure it's going to do that is that it's touching a major TL right now, and usually retracements are guaranteed when momentum is pointing up while price is OS or touching major S/R levels.
If it follows the Dow on the retrace this is definitely a rigged race
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #83,324
  • May 21, 2008 4:25pm May 21, 2008 4:25pm


Quoting shakesfx
OK here's what I see bros. 4hr Z Stoch crossed down, QQE down, Z MACD Down. Price below 5 SMA, Gann and 200 SMA. Reversal Bearish Doji formation and a throw of the dice. I'm holding Short till tomorrow and need to chill now. Reversal is boxed on the chart, if it doesn't work, well never mind...this market isn't exactly playing by rules this week. SL above 203.80, TP 199.85. Goodnight all and see you at London Open!
  • #83,325
  • May 21, 2008 4:26pm May 21, 2008 4:26pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
If it follows the Dow on the retrace this is definitely a rigged race

yea, it wouldn't follow it on a 450 point dump, but it would a slightest rally
  • #83,326
  • May 21, 2008 4:28pm May 21, 2008 4:28pm
No fear it is climbing .....
Greed is Trader 1st enemy.
  • #83,327
  • May 21, 2008 4:32pm May 21, 2008 4:32pm
Quoting Evilgoat
http://www.myspacecomedy.com/images/funny/coke-bear.jpg
..This is funny .. I like it ..
  • #83,328
  • May 21, 2008 4:38pm May 21, 2008 4:38pm
Hey guys and gals...I was long yesterday because of the idiot that I am. I overlooked the current cycle and jumped ahead of myself...Remember, Skunny saying, if things are not working go back and find your mistake...Well I found it... We are in-fact in a short cycle as of the moment on the hour chart. Price needs to touch 202.48 and I expect a bounce from that point.

I carefully went over some higher time frames and tracked down the current cycles on the 4 hour and day charts; both pointing up. See charts..I have a long limit order placed @ the 202.48. Yes price could drop further, we are in an inside retracement on those larger TF longs. On the 4 hour price has found support at the inner 38 fib. It could go back to that point or lower to the 50 or 61, only time will tell.

Happy trading friends,

Scotty B
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  • #83,329
  • May 21, 2008 4:41pm May 21, 2008 4:41pm
http://content.sweetim.com/sim/cpie/...s/000201B0.gif
  • #83,330
  • May 21, 2008 4:42pm May 21, 2008 4:42pm
Quoting Scotty B
Hey guys and gals...I was long yesterday because of the idiot that I am. I overlooked the current cycle and jumped ahead of myself...Remember, Skunny saying, if things are not working go back and find your mistake...Well I found it... We are in-fact in a short cycle as of the moment on the hour chart. Price needs to touch 202.48 and I expect a bounce from that point.

I carefully went over some higher time frames and tracked down the current cycles on the 4 hour and day charts; both pointing up. See charts..I have a long limit order placed @ the 202.48. Yes price could drop further, we are in an inside retracement on those larger TF longs. On the 4 hour price has found support at the inner 38 fib. It could go back to that point or lower to the 50 or 61, only time will tell.

Happy trading friends,

Scotty B

Great analysis !

But I question the "hint of direction" areas.

Could they not be "hint of rejection" areas ?

Meaning price tried to reach that area but found no buyers.

Thanks Scotty.
  • #83,331
  • May 21, 2008 4:56pm May 21, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Great analysis !

But I question the "hint of direction" areas.

Could they not be "hint of rejection" areas ?

Meaning price tried to reach that area but found no buyers.

Thanks Scotty.
This is based off what I learned from skunny then observed on every chart I could find. In the beginning Skunny had us fib individual candles and watch for a breach of the high or low. Most of the time price will go to hit the ext in the direction price breached or hinted as I like to call it. When the ext are not met right away, price will usually go and bounce of the inner fibs, many times hitting the 50 or 61 then going back the other way in the direction it hinted earlier- finishing the cycle it started, be it long or short. Cycles as I know them begin with a hint of direction-inner retrace- on to target. Or Hint of direction and right on to ext. you never know which of the two cycles you'll get, but its usually the first one, especially on the larger moves.
I fib certain fractals and wait for cycle completions, then I adjust my fib when cycles are met. I used to fib one candle at a time and it works to a certain degree using skunny principles but it is not a very reliable method, because it takes no account of market direction in the big picture. Fibbing fractals-or swings is the way to trading consistently. The biggest obstacle is myself and my mistakes, as I just tripped over myself yesterday and was stopped out. The hardest part is finding the current active cycles, but it gets easier as time goes on.

Scotty B
  • #83,332
  • May 21, 2008 5:00pm May 21, 2008 5:00pm
Quoting lilmoe
yea, it wouldn't follow it on a 450 point dump, but it would a slightest rally
Today we broke the bear flag of the Dj-30 . We might see a bounce , however you got to look how it closed today ( at low of day with no bounce = very bearish) . Heavy selling pressure all day according to my volume spread analysis charts

I do not see anything to make this bounce other 12500. I remained in my YM ( dj-30 emini) short this morning since 12826 , and have moved stop down to lock in 100 points of profit.

I see 12200 on the cards for dj ... hopefully by end of the week .... lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #83,333
  • May 21, 2008 5:06pm May 21, 2008 5:06pm
Quoting Scotty B
This is based off what I learned from skunny then observed on every chart I could find. In the beginning Skunny had us fib individual candles and watch for a breach of the high or low. Most of the time price will go to hit the ext in the direction price breached or hinted as I like to call it. When the ext are not met right away, price will usually go and bounce of the inner fibs, many times hitting the 50 or 61 then going back the other way in the direction it hinted earlier- finishing the cycle it started, be it long or short. Cycles as I know them begin with a hint of direction-inner retrace- on to target. Or Hint of direction and right on to ext. you never know which of the two cycles you'll get, but its usually the first one, especially on the larger moves.
I fib certain fractals and wait for cycle completions, then I adjust my fib when cycles are met. I used to fib one candle at a time and it works to a certain degree using skunny principles but it is not a very reliable method, because it takes no account of market direction in the big picture. Fibbing fractals-or swings is the way to trading consistently. The biggest obstacle is myself and my mistakes, as I just tripped over myself yesterday and was stopped out. The hardest part is finding the current active cycles, but it gets easier as time goes on.

Scotty B
Thank you for the in-depth explanation.
Looks like I need to venture over to the Skunny thread.
  • #83,334
  • May 21, 2008 5:16pm May 21, 2008 5:16pm
Also need to keep in mind that Frankfurt is closed next session for holiday.
  • #83,335
  • May 21, 2008 5:34pm May 21, 2008 5:34pm
when do you think the gbp/jpy is going to start moving again?
it's been ranging for almost 3 weeks now
  • #83,336
  • May 21, 2008 5:50pm May 21, 2008 5:50pm
Quoting rogerdoger
when do you think the gbp/jpy is going to start moving again?
it's been ranging for almost 3 weeks now
It's not GBP's fault, it's JPY's fault. Maybe focus on GU, until you see on the day chart it has started to move.
  • #83,337
  • May 21, 2008 6:06pm May 21, 2008 6:06pm
Quoting rogerdoger
when do you think the gbp/jpy is going to start moving again?
it's been ranging for almost 3 weeks now
I consulted the crystal ball and it said in precisely 6 days , 3 hours , 15 minutes and 4 seconds that GJ will start to move again.

No honestly i asked my highly accurate trading tool

http://predictions.astrology.com/cb/

and it said ' I cannot believe you asked me that'

Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #83,338
  • May 21, 2008 6:08pm May 21, 2008 6:08pm
Before you place any trades check out my other highly accurate trading tool

http://predictions.astrology.com/lm/

Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #83,339
  • May 21, 2008 6:12pm May 21, 2008 6:12pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I consulted the crystal ball and it said in precisely 6 days , 3 hours , 15 minutes and 4 seconds that GJ will start to move again.

No honestly i asked my highly accurate trading tool

http://predictions.astrology.com/cb/

and it said ' I cannot believe you asked me that'

I asked the exact same question and I got this answer:
Ask me again tomorrow, I need more time.
  • #83,340
  • May 21, 2008 6:22pm May 21, 2008 6:22pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I consulted the crystal ball and it said in precisely 6 days , 3 hours , 15 minutes and 4 seconds that GJ will start to move again.

No honestly i asked my highly accurate trading tool

http://predictions.astrology.com/cb/

and it said ' I cannot believe you asked me that'

Well one of us is wrong....My dice say 6 days, 3 hours, 15 minutes and 27 seconds.

I know this because I rolled a "7" which as you know is very lucky and corresponds directly to Long and Short poistions in Forex, not only that the dice told me we would be at 199.47 Friday 2100GMT.

Also, on the second roll I got a 3, which of course means DOW at 12477 on Friday NY close.
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