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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,741
  • May 20, 2008 2:09pm May 20, 2008 2:09pm
Dear FTI,

Although I have not still did it, I want to thank you to have begun
this thread.
Thanks to your posts I have improved my trading notably,
I understand a little more the structure of the market and
your recommendation of reading the AOW was of great help,
and your observations are always inspiring, at least for me.

I am still far from where I want to be,
but thanks to your posts I come closer step to step.

Take care.

Sincerely,

Textor
  • #2,742
  • May 20, 2008 2:09pm May 20, 2008 2:09pm
hello fti, reading this thread from the starting isnt easy for a newbie who joined late.
what do you think about pivot points? using them as exits.
  • #2,743
  • Edited 2:33pm May 20, 2008 2:18pm | Edited 2:33pm
fti, when you have time, maybe you can post some scenario you have taken in the market. playing either rescue or attack or both.

when you boil it down to math then adding to position with increased size terribly reduces your win rate (attack). doing the same on a loosing position (in red but not dead in water).. will increase the win rate allowing you to trade 100% (rescue).

I haven't found the equilibrium for myself yet.. trial and error will teach me.

If you are in attack mode and fully loaded then it is very important to dump the load if you hit a train (even book a loss).

I really enjoy reading this thread and I am learning as we go on.

Late friday I did a small experiment (feeding the scorpion in me). Opened positions on 19 pairs, one scout per each. This was like snowballing my mindset for trading. Even tho it went -650 pips in net total, I exited my last positions today at the net win of 300 pips. After successful rescues on 2 pairs that I was comfortable trading I made one dead in the water loss. My euraud long position was -140 and it had broken all support lines and longer term trend.. as this pair is not on my usual radar I did not feel like I could time the rescues well, so I bit the bullet at -42 when I felt it hit the previous support, current resistance. Didn't want to sit another day babysitting it (in hindsight turned out i should have, then I would have ended in profit on all 19 pairs, lol). Made 1.5% of account.

Anyway, now I feel I can manage a trade.. not just watch and hope.
  • #2,744
  • May 20, 2008 2:32pm May 20, 2008 2:32pm
I am also very happy that fond out this thread and learned a lot of things and have started seeing markets from another perspective. The best thing which can happen to a youngster is to learn from experiences of a older guy and who had a strong position in this market. I think for myself would be the best to set me on the dealing desk and to learn and train all ropes but i am just 17 and i have to study stupid things in gymnasium and quarell with teachers. Regards and thx fti once more time
  • #2,745
  • May 20, 2008 2:33pm May 20, 2008 2:33pm
Hi textor,
Glad that I could help.
Thank you for your kind words.

@ spotless1212,

Sorry , that the thread is long, basically this just a discussion thread, so as we chat, the longer it will get.I hope you can find the needle that you need as you dig thru this haystack.
As for pivots, I only use the hourly average (12sma on 5 min charts ) as a pivot guide, I Don't even plot it on the chart.Of any value it is comprised of more data points as opposed to traditional pivots plottings, If I understand your question correctly. It sort of give me a feel of the sigma,(rate of change) equilibrium, which of course changes over time as well. So really, its a moving equlibrium, if you like. Doesn't do much for the dance. I do look at it if I lost my rhythm, to try to decide of what speed, I should try to retime as I zoom out in time frame. Otherwise have little analytical value to me.

regards
  • #2,746
  • May 20, 2008 2:59pm May 20, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting piccolo
fti, when you have time, maybe you can post some scenario you have taken in the market. playing either rescue or attack or both.

when you boil it down to math then adding to position with increased size terribly reduces your win rate (attack). doing the same on a loosing position (in red but not dead in water).. will increase the win rate allowing you to trade 100% (rescue).

I haven't found the equilibrium for myself yet.. trial and error will teach me.

If you are in attack mode and fully loaded then it is very important to dump the load if you hit a train (even book a loss).

I really enjoy reading this thread and I am learning as we go on.

Late friday I did a small experiment (feeding the scorpion in me). Opened positions on 19 pairs, one scout per each. This was like snowballing my mindset for trading. Even tho it went -650 pips in net total, I exited my last positions today at the net win of 300 pips. After successful rescues on 2 pairs that I was comfortable trading I made one dead in the water loss. My euraud long position was -140 and it had broken all support lines and longer term trend.. as this pair is not on my usual radar I did not feel like I could time the rescues well, so I bit the bullet at -42 when I felt it hit the previous support, current resistance. Didn't want to sit another day babysitting it (in hindsight turned out i should have, then I would have ended in profit on all 19 pairs, lol). Made 1.5% of account.

Anyway, now I feel I can manage a trade.. not just watch and hope.
check out post 1126 for the play by play.
  • #2,747
  • May 20, 2008 3:07pm May 20, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting lilpip
check out post 1126 for the play by play.
thank you very much. this helped.
  • #2,748
  • May 20, 2008 3:08pm May 20, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting piccolo
fti, when you have time, maybe you can post some scenario you have taken in the market. playing either rescue or attack or both.

Sorry , I am too engaged to do this again. May be you may like to figure it out from this thread slowly.

when you boil it down to math then adding to position with increased size terribly reduces your win rate (attack). doing the same on a loosing position (in red but not dead in water).. will increase the win rate allowing you to trade 100% (rescue).

I think you are mistaken here. Read my responses to Green_David on attack piramids, as he calls it, just a few postings above.

I haven't found the equilibrium for myself yet.. trial and error will teach me.

If you are in attack mode and fully loaded then it is very important to dump the load if you hit a train (even book a loss).

Yes, If you hit a train as you attack , the positions will quickly be "dead in the water", the MO is to unload the attack bulk, and dance with the scout and rescue load to recover, adding rescue to recover some losses from the attack failure if opportunities arises. (damage control) Turning in this situation is very dangerous, as you may be caught at extreme of run, and if that was to happen you will be trapped between both the bull and bear "dead in the water" predicament.

I really enjoy reading this thread and I am learning as we go on.

Late friday I did a small experiment (feeding the scorpion in me). Opened positions on 19 pairs, one scout per each. This was like snowballing my mindset for trading. Even tho it went -650 pips in net total, I exited my last positions today at the net win of 300 pips. After successful rescues on 2 pairs that I was comfortable trading I made one dead in the water loss. My euraud long position was -140 and it had broken all support lines and longer term trend.. as this pair is not on my usual radar I did not feel like I could time the rescues well, so I bit the bullet at -42 when I felt it hit the previous support, current resistance. Didn't want to sit another day babysitting it (in hindsight turned out i should have, then I would have ended in profit on all 19 pairs, lol). Made 1.5% of account.

WOW, At the bank, I had nearly 30 dealers on shifts to handle 4 major currencies.plus some more on strategic arbitrage and trading and more on the futures and money desk. Mostly a dealer focuses on a single currency pair. If any one can handle two pairs they are effectively watching crosses.
Most times I will manage exotic crosses and nostros benchmarked to USD deltas and sometime manage two pairs, if the need arises. But 19 pairs, is totally out of my league.
You gotta be super trader, or gambling. Consider slowing down , with real $$, babysitting 19 monsters, can burn you out very fast. Its ok if every pair is going fine, remeber when they work against you, it can be a mindfull.

Anyway, now I feel I can manage a trade.. not just watch and hope.

Trade carefully.
Regards
  • #2,749
  • May 20, 2008 3:24pm May 20, 2008 3:24pm
I have read the thread through thoroughly and I will experiment with the attack to learn it as I have understood it. As you said, fti, I don't have to copy you (I am sure it would be better to copy than invent my own, lol). Given the recent circumstances I don't want you to get involved, sorry for pushing it.

Of course I was gambling with the 19 pairs and I had to take 140-150 pip drawdowns on some pairs to capture 30-40 pips eventually (I must admin that for some I booked the profits without opening a chart, lol). This was just my way of learning position rescues & dead in water situations. A little fast forward maybe.

Even when I trade 1 or 2 pairs I like to watch all the majors to see if anyone is leading the dance.
  • #2,750
  • May 20, 2008 3:40pm May 20, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting piccolo

Late friday I did a small experiment (feeding the scorpion in me). Opened positions on 19 pairs, one scout per each. This was like snowballing my mindset for trading. Even tho it went -650 pips in net total, I exited my last positions today at the net win of 300 pips. After successful rescues on 2 pairs that I was comfortable trading I made one dead in the water loss. My euraud long position was -140 and it had broken all support lines and longer term trend.. as this pair is not on my usual radar I did not feel like I could time the rescues well, so I bit the bullet at -42 when I felt it hit the previous support, current resistance. Didn't want to sit another day babysitting it (in hindsight turned out i should have, then I would have ended in profit on all 19 pairs, lol). Made 1.5% of account.
>>>what that real money? If so, you did fed not one but many scorptions...do you know that many pais are highly correlated, that it takes a lot work to focus on a single pair, etc... One pair is more than enough for 1.5 % if you really really want it...(no recommended!)..
Some where in the past we discussed the issue of many pair trading...you might want want to read about it... Few of us can handle more than 1 pair at the same time...each one is a different dance with a different music...

also the concept of attack and rescue...do you really understand it? It is not clear to me...

Best wishes.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,751
  • May 20, 2008 3:59pm May 20, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting luSan
>>>what that real money? If so, you did fed not one but many scorptions...do you know that many pais are highly correlated, that it takes a lot work to focus on a single pair, etc... One pair is more than enough for 1.5 % if you really really want it...(no recommended!)..
of course i know the correlation and i did know my net exposure. how wise do you think is to have a position in gbpusd, usdjpy and gbpjpy at the same time? yet I pulled +30 on each.

i always trade real money, just small. i can rescue the scout with up to 100x bigger position (never had to use more than 3x).

but thank you for your concern. I enjoy reading your posts. Enjoy your freedom. Remember to go out from your house now and then.
  • #2,752
  • May 20, 2008 4:58pm May 20, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting piccolo
of course i know the correlation and i did know my net exposure. how wise do you think is to have a position in gbpusd, usdjpy and gbpjpy at the same time? yet I pulled +30 on each.

i always trade real money, just small. i can rescue the scout with up to 100x bigger position (never had to use more than 3x).

but thank you for your concern. I enjoy reading your posts. Enjoy your freedom. Remember to go out from your house now and then.
Ok...ok...ok...small is good...I never rescue with less than 2X...

I think that we discussed the pairs once:
gbp/usd + usd/jpy = gbp/jpy
right?
So you were trading each branch of gbp/jpy and also gbp/jpy together...why not 2X gbp/jpy...of course...assuming you are in tradin on the same direction...anyway...more power to you if you can profit from it...

me? Have enough with eur/usd...though I am considering the following...

image that I am short on eur/usd and all hell goes loose...then instead of shutting down, I could go short on usd/chf -which is hightly correlated with eur/usd...

play it and when all become quiet agains -and it always does--play a rescue operation on the eur/usd using the profit from the usd/chf...

Similar to what leighs was talking about but only on an emergency....
This is a dynamic hedging...well...not really hedging but a way to keep a knife away from my book.

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,753
  • May 20, 2008 5:09pm May 20, 2008 5:09pm
Quoting luSan
Ok...ok...ok...small is good...I never rescue with less than 2X...

I think that we discussed the pairs once:
gbp/usd + usd/jpy = gbp/jpy
right?
So you were trading each branch of gbp/jpy and also gbp/jpy together...why not 2X gbp/jpy...of course...assuming you are in tradin on the same direction...anyway...more power to you if you can profit from it...

me? Have enough with eur/usd...though I am considering the following...

image that I am short on eur/usd and all hell goes loose...then instead of shutting down, I could go short on usd/chf -which is hightly correlated with eur/usd...

play it and when all become quiet agains -and it always does--play a rescue operation on the eur/usd using the profit from the usd/chf...

Similar to what leighs was talking about but only on an emergency....
This is a dynamic hedging...well...not really hedging but a way to keep a knife away from my book.

Regards
i hear you but i don't like it. all my studies have shown that the correlation works fine until it doesn't and you don't want that to be the case in an emergency. as long as interest rates are correlated you are fine.

instead if my position goes in red, i unload it a bit and then re-add it later. so if I was long 10 lots eurusd and the market started to drop, I could exit 2,3,5 whatever lots and add them back when the drop reaches a bottom. This way I actually go short on the drop in some sense, lol. maybe its not a good technique but it works for me.
  • #2,754
  • Edited 10:21pm May 20, 2008 9:37pm | Edited 10:21pm
Hi Picollo, lusan, mijamoto, fti and all.

I believe everyone has found, in a way or another their own variation of intepreting fti's teaching to suit his/her own risk appetite. I think this is a great development. No?

Abt pairs traded, i basically do as reccomended. 3Kingdoms. But I predominantly trade the EURUSD and the USDJPY with the Cable as a look back.

The strategy that i have assumed is a simple one. Whenever i have a position in Yen, i will take an opposite in Eur coz you seldom get them to travel in tandem, i use it so that i could take advantage of volatility in the movements of either currency. I would not do averaging on both but instead choose the more volatile one at that point of time to conduct my skews while the other coils the string.

I've also devised a small rescue technique, i will look for points where the 5min will stretch far past the hourly average (12sma on 5min charts) and using 2 oscillators(200tick chart), the stochs and rsi. The stochs tends to be more sensitive and thus allows me to pick my first rescue zone...but knowing stochs u know that she tends to hang up there longer so if the initial stoch fails, i'll wait for the rsi to signal. I dont take the signals on a whim, i usually look for round numbers 50,60,80,00 for entries....and i will let the price run for 20-40pips before i conduct another rescue. Why 20-40pips? Usually during periods where there is no news dominating price, i noticed the average swing is around that range. Formations like double top and SRs can be helpful too. (No spanking pls....oscillators just looks pretty on screen, lol, but seriously they are just a look out, i never find myself depending much on their signals or patterns)

By using this re-avg method, it allows me to stick in the trade for a longer period, whenever i reach BE, i will reduce my sizing and if price runs away again, i will re-average until i get to BE again, then reduce sizing, sooner or later (as long as i trade with the trend) im bound to hit a big retracement and i'll be in the money in no time. If i dont get the trend to be with me by a certain time (usually i quit when euro closes), i bail out of the whole trade.

I have traded this for abt a month already and i have never found myself conducting a rescue beyond the 3rd level and as i mentioned in my previous post i have managed to garner 9.7% for the month, which i think is pretty decent for my mediocre standards. Average session lasts abt 4hrs.

regards
jest
  • #2,755
  • May 20, 2008 10:02pm May 20, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting fti
David,


If you had not noticed, if you master my presentation, you would find that you are well position to tackle congestions ( which is 70% of market sequenses) as well as trends, although the basis of analysis is on trends. The nimbleness it affords allows you to maneuver from one mode to the other easily provided your ego is not in the driver seat and you are in non predictive mindset. Funny that no one noticed it. Of course the prerequisite is that you have to be re analysing your position and constantly re-mapping yourself against the terrain.
This explains why my trading hit a plateau. I only concentrate on the EU and the last couple of weeks I keep hitting a brick wall. Escape with minor losses but mostly exit at BE. No profit yet this month (for me any profits less than 10 pips I considered it as BE).

Frustation kicks in when Mkt refuse go on a trend run. When Mkt turns against my position I usually take action to exit instead of hoping that it will turn back again to resume its trend run.

The key here I think is what Fti always stressed: Nimble. But to be nimble one must have the correct mindset. Not everyone can be nimble initially.


Once again, thanks Fti. I would be smelling my burnt hands if I'm still trading my old methods.
  • #2,756
  • May 20, 2008 11:54pm May 20, 2008 11:54pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,
The silk road in trouble.
This is what you get for atrocities against the innocent.
First in Myanmar , now in Si chuan ( Chinese silk road ).

If man thinks they have the power to create and destroy.
The almight has proven a point clearly. If he willed, then all is no match.
If man thinks he has power to kill the innocent, it is still no match to what the almight can do in sacrificing of innocent lambs.

Hear the lessons, repent, and be filled with the spirit.
The message is clear, this is no coincidence.
Return to the heart and help those who survived the ordeal in both locations, as best you can do. Remember , mankind is given the chance, to show what you are truly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ulc51ZOGQk

Do not just morn, do something, anything.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGtKxbu7vLI
Arise keepers of creation.
M't:3:8: Bring forth therefore fruits meet for repentance:
M't:3:9: And think not to say within yourselves, We have Abraham to our father: for I say unto you, that God is able of these stones to raise up children unto Abraham.
M't:3:10: And now also the axe is laid unto the root of the trees: therefore every tree which bringeth not forth good fruit is hewn down, and cast into the fire.

I speak loud and I will be target.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/cna/2008052...7-231650b.html
And When You Do Alms..
M't:6:1: Take heed that ye do not your alms before men, to be seen of them: otherwise ye have no reward of your Father which is in heaven.
M't:6:2: Therefore when thou doest thine alms, do not sound a trumpet before thee, as the hypocrites do in the synagogues and in the streets, that they may have glory of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward.
M't:6:3: But when thou doest alms, let not thy left hand know what thy right hand doeth:
M't:6:4: That thine alms may be in secret: and thy Father which seeth in secret himself shall reward thee openly.
And When you Pray..
M't:6:5: And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward.
M't:6:6: But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly.
M't:6:7: But when ye pray, use not vain repetitions, as the heathen do: for they think that they shall be heard for their much speaking.
M't:6:8: Be not ye therefore like unto them: for your Father knoweth what things ye have need of, before ye ask him.
M't:6:9: After this manner therefore pray ye:
Our Father which art in heaven, Hallowed be thy name.
M't:6:10: Thy kingdom come.
Thy will be done in earth, as it is in heaven.
M't:6:11: Give us this day our daily bread.
M't:6:12: And forgive us our debts, as we forgive our debtors.
M't:6:13: And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil:
For thine is the kingdom, and the power, and the glory, for ever. Amen.
When you Forgive..
M't:6:14: For if ye forgive men their trespasses, your heavenly Father will also forgive you:
M't:6:15: But if ye forgive not men their trespasses, neither will your Father forgive your trespasses.

When you fast..
M't:6:16: Moreover when ye fast, be not, as the hypocrites, of a sad countenance: for they disfigure their faces, that they may appear unto men to fast. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward.
M't:6:17: But thou, when thou fastest, anoint thine head, and wash thy face;
M't:6:18: That thou appear not unto men to fast, but unto thy Father which is in secret: and thy Father, which seeth in secret, shall reward thee openly.

M't= The Book of Matthew, A testament of the Lord. aka The Gospel of the bible, aka Injin of Muhamad's reference, peace be upon him.

When God's sun rises it shine on all, the innocent as well as the guilty.
When God's rain come on to the earth, it rains on the innocent and well as the guilty. All is good and all is bad. For all man has sinned and fall short the glory of its Creator.

All is good and all is evil.
For how could man see what good there is , if man cannot see that which is evil. The price to see that which is good and evil is so expensive that, some of creation paid the highest price that can be paid that all may see it. That the sacrificial meat be laid upon your table daily, and yet no realisation's of the essence of life.
Let not the sacrificial lessons fall on the deaf and blind.
Cain, put away your weapons that kills your brother, Abel.

Cain shall create the lesson.
Abel shall pay the sacrificial price for the lesson.
Seth must immortalise the lesson his brothers taught.
: referenced the books of Creation by Moses( Old Testament ),aka the Torah.

regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUCQfB2tH5s

My prayer and meditation for those lost and those in pain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXuzLRVi6qk
fti,
I can relate to your post and It reminds me of a couple scriptures.
As we looked backed through history Eccl.8:9 mentions "man has dominated man to his injury" and Jer.10:23 mankinds creator "It does not belong to man to direct his step". We only have to pick up the newspaper and we read about atocities such as what you brought out as the result from mans independence from our creator that started back in Cain and Abels and family day.
I look forward to the good news that Gods kingdom will bring that you mentioned to pray for and as Ps. 37:10,11 mentions "Just a little while longer and the wicked one will be no more...but the meek will possess the earth and they will delight in the abundance of peace.
All nations unified as a united brotherhood Rev. 5:13; 15:3,4 tells us.
Mankind is free from threat of war Ps. 46:8,9 and Isa.2:4 .
The earth is free from corrupt rulers and oppression as the blood of those who suffered is precious in the creators eyes as Ps.72:12-14 brings out.
For those that have died John 5:28,29 mentions the ressurection of the rightous to life and those that did not know God to judgement which will take place under Gods kingdom once its established here on earth.
Ps.72:16- plenty of food.
Isa.65:21,22- housing.
These are just a few things that Gods kingdom government will bring that I look forward to.
Well, enough bible study, may we all continue to show love to our fellow man.
  • #2,757
  • Edited 2:17am May 21, 2008 1:58am | Edited 2:17am
Hi ALL,
Politics.
Inserted Video


regards
  • #2,758
  • May 21, 2008 3:20am May 21, 2008 3:20am
fti

I enjoyed video immensely. I do voluntary work once a week at my daughter's school, and yesterday i experienced a similar political manouvre between two alpha males both of whom are 5 years old (albeit not as sophisticated. Maybe girls are more manipulative than boys.). We had really great weather so the kids were allowed to eat outside. One boy had a new lunchbox with his favourite football team depicted on it and was getting a lot of attention from the other boys. This didn't go down well with another boy, so he grabbed the lunchbox and threw it over the fence into a water filled ditch. Problem solved. All attention was then focused on him again for being so naughty. Not very sophisticated, but effective.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #2,759
  • Edited 4:29am May 21, 2008 3:54am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting piccolo
I have read the thread through thoroughly and I will experiment with the attack to learn it as I have understood it. As you said, fti, I don't have to copy you (I am sure it would be better to copy than invent my own, lol). Given the recent circumstances I don't want you to get involved, sorry for pushing it.

Of course I was gambling with the 19 pairs and I had to take 140-150 pip drawdowns on some pairs to capture 30-40 pips eventually (I must admin that for some I booked the profits without opening a chart, lol). This was just my way of learning position rescues & dead in water situations. A little fast forward maybe.

Even when I trade 1 or 2 pairs I like to watch all the majors to see if anyone is leading the dance.
Hi piccolo,

I think I may have alittle idea of what you are trying to do.
Generally , I am opinioned that rigidity in MO is dangerous,
but I think you may not be on the wrong direction intotality, if my guess of your MO is correct.
Be forewarned that to operate in stockist mode requires very high cap requirements for small returns. The economies of scale rule would be the backbone for your market endeavour.

If you may like to start a journal of your MO, I may be enlightened as to your
motivation and MO. Offhand I believe your MO is oto.

regards
  • #2,760
  • May 21, 2008 4:15am May 21, 2008 4:15am
Quoting DutchAngel
fti

I enjoyed video immensely. I do voluntary work once a week at my daughter's school, and yesterday i experienced a similar political manouvre between two alpha males both of whom are 5 years old (albeit not as sophisticated. Maybe girls are more manipulative than boys.). We had really great weather so the kids were allowed to eat outside. One boy had a new lunchbox with his favourite football team depicted on it and was getting a lot of attention from the other boys. This didn't go down well with another boy, so he grabbed the lunchbox and threw it over the fence into a water filled ditch. Problem solved. All attention was then focused on him again for being so naughty. Not very sophisticated, but effective.
Hi DutchAngel,
I am glad that you enjoyed the clip.
I was a very surprised, as I have only boys, and they were not so sophisticated when they were preschool. Comparatively, they were shy and introverts then.
Needless to say, I grew up in very different setting.

I am mostly shocked at the sophistication and maturity.
Do not know whether to take this as orchestrated or for real.
LOL.
The world has changed, from the ground level up if this is real.
The alpha males I still believe, as similar to the incident you described.
Not tactful, mostly brute force.

But the girl was meticulous and manipulative, for lack of better word.
Most surprising was the organised nature of her frame of mindset.
Are girls like as in the video? Powerful mindset.

A dinosaur I do feel myself. Gotta let it settle in the mind yet.LOL.

regards
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