Wall Street close watch

Hi Sl, I have the count somewhere on my computer for the yen will dig it out over the weekend and try to post it here, I glanced at yours and it is more or less correct I have the one that's done on a monthly, weekly and daily will post it as soon as i find it. I'm beginning to get a very weird feeling as if the markets, I'm reffering now to the indexes and the carry, are being supported by a huge influx of funds every time they begin to gather the momentum for a fall, every time there is push it looks like someone is stopping it on a dime, not good, not good at all.
Here is an example of a manipulation in play, the russian index had a similar count to the Dow, five waves down,(wave1/A) 3 waves up, corrective, waves up were equal in length, perfect bear market scenario, then we had a nice fall that started to look like the beginning of a 3rd bear leg down, and then ooops just in a matter of one week or maybe one and a half we are at new highs, gues why? The new president together with the old one who in now the Head of the Government aparattus declared that the taxes on oil will be reduced and the country needs to grow at a faster pace and drastically fight inflation, that's it no more no less, new highs(all time) bear count out the window and me very happy for not taking the bate of the unfolding bear leg fake. Well, yes I would say that the situation here is pretty good, fundamentally, cycle wise, etc., inmo, but again from a purelly technical perspective it makes no sense at all at the moment, technically the bear was clear and a finish to the move should of happened, it didn't, instead it was some kind of weird s$%^t, don't even want to attempt a count for now, will just watch. Hmmmmmmmmm, that's all I can say, growing a bit impatient by the day as we pass important dates and i see money that are being pumpt in to prevent a meltdown at every little jolt, the fed is nervous and they will do whatever it takes to prevent a meltdown, is it possible?, in theory no, but on practice they may delay it, push it up even more and only then we would have a spectacular fall with the markets possibly being suspended for a few days if not weeks, not possible?! I think there is a better than 65% chance at this point, derivatives are showing signs of strain, the inevitable unwinding of credit has to happen but when? That's another question
Anyhow, you can probably tell I'm a bit frustrated, most likely because \i'm short as hell, if we don't start to break down next week or as i see it now as a more likely scenario in the very beginning of June, i will try to get he hell out of my shorts and the hell out of the market for the summer, sick and tired of playing cat and mouse, have a great weekend

I can't speak to any other indexes, but I do know that the main gripe about these "rallies" here in the US is that the volume is really light.

It is light, and it is the only silver lining at the moment, I'm very bearish, but, and again but, if some key levels are violated and we are very close to them, some 3 trillion dollarts sitting on the sidelines in cash will pour in on a simple techical buying, it would be short lived but it is possible, and since I'm short some carry paires expecting a final push down this possibility really doesn't sit well with me, not to mention a whole bunch of other implications that this would bring to the markets

amazingly ive been away from my computer for over a week (yes, it was very weird), only to return and find that the credit crunch is old news. dow on solid footing with the vix almost back to 15 either this is the lull before the storm or ive lost touch

13106 as we speak. Gotta love these DJIA enthusiasts.

I think it might be on.

I do wonder whether there'll be a final turbulence with the whole BOJ thing...stock market still has a last push and shove room if it wants.

I just think that if we're not going to do "it" this week, then I don't know when

But I think we're getting closer by the hour

I think I think too much!

I agree, this week is shaping up just right. Final bullish push towards 13200 for all the enthusiasts. BoJ might be a participant in all of this. Isn't it time they drop the "weak" economic growth shennanigans and put the worlds 2nd largest amount of foreign reserves to work?

I see Dow going for new highs. Call me crazy or call it all "irrational exuberance", but as long as no other smashing news come about, there is no reason to stay sidelined.

The bad news is carry trades took an independent road, last sign says "Mental Institution at 10 miles". Few months ago, you could see GJ ticking with Dow like music...

Well, you could see cable being called a dragon, Japan complaining about the weak Yen and CAD going up no matter what...

Those were simple days...

I don't know I think that this is not quite as peachy as they make it out to be, but then I believe in cleaning house the old fashioned way. Not this arbitrary, throw out some sacrificial lambs, fire a few MD's and get on with the show stuff.

Hi SL, didn't forget about the charts, was a bit busy will post by tomorrow some time, as far as the resent action, I think this may be it, the only problem is that, as funny as it may sound even though I'm positioned on a short side for now (carry wize), and the market feels like it is coiling up for something rather big, and most of the objectives were reached on the indexes. Well, my view is beginning to shift to a very cautios netral stanceat this point. Can't really point out anything in particular techically nothing really screams out, but we have close above the 200 MA on the dow today, first time since the beginning of this year, if there is no serious dive, as I'm almost positive we will have tomorrow and no sustained selling and follow through, it could be a first clear sign that the seasonals, that are completelly opposite to a historical market behaviour are off and we might rally through at least july, consolidate and rally through november, seems unlikelly, but, but... A close on the dow above 13250 on the daily will get me very discusted but have to be prepared, so here is the heads up..

Thanks Gene.

Well, as I've mentioned, the stocks/carry connection has weakened a bit, and IMHO the (JPY, not CHF oddly enough)carry trade is a bit "ahead of the game" it seems so far..so who knows.

Unless USDJPY roars past 105 in one mad blast, taking GJ above 205/206 and EJ above 163, things should have already begun their renewed topping process for the next move.

If not, c'est la vie, can't tell the market where to go.
USDJPY with speed moving below 103.60 and then 103.5 would make me a bit more confident that we may have begun V.3.1.3 or something
The next impulse, anyhow! Then there's 102.40-50 and 100, and 97.50..
And then the void..

Everyone, start selling dollars or buying YEN, NOW!

*goes to console himself with some non-carry trades*

LOL, buying yen sounds better than dumping dollars for now. Vix is really low, but had ticked up today 3% this really looks like the come before the storm, we shall see, those ranges are anoying, tradeable sure, but still amazingly annoying when the gut feeling, together with whole bunch of pa points to the breakout. Euro yen has a nice head&shoulders on the 4hr pointing to at least 200 pips down, and there is one on the daily that is not text book but still looks acceptable and pointing to a 152 region, and then we have a 4hr inverted that is forming now and pointing to the upside, lol I think the market is a bit confused at the moment...

Brazilian oil company Petrobras overtook Microsoft and it's now 3rd largest company in Americas, behind Exxon and GE only.

Brazilian Bovespa (read 67% Petrobras action) had 9th record for the year.

It's the bright side of living in the commodities supplier emerging economies.

The downside is that we will keep exporting tens of vessels of iron and importing 1 container of Chinese junk for the same value.

My cousin used to (maybe still does) ship mucho tons of steel from Cosipa to China.

Now I think he does a lot of liner biz. His company is listed in the USA but it stock price has been moving like it was on the Bovespa.

Yup, stock market here is in pure frenzy.

It flushed out a lot of people in January. While some are still licking the wounds, more Joes are going in. Besides Vale and Petrobras, people are now jumping into another company's bandwagons because of the Investment Grade Bovespa earned.

Investment Grade doesn't mean green light to go in (brokers here say it does) and I'm very worried about what is going to happen when (if? maybe one day?) the commodities bubble bursts (brokers here say they won't).

Once we see a confirmed stabilization of the US housing market, the Fed will most likely begin to move towards a tightening bias, which would put us right back into the bear market we are barely crawling out of. Remember, the Fed is not out to defend the markets from bears, it is out to defend "the system". There is nothing wrong with having a bear market, as long as things don't go flying off a cliff, and as a responsible central bank, the Fed will have to address the issue of inflation.

The American economy is more flexible than its European counterpart, and a slowdown in the US is a more powerful deflationary force than a slowdown in Europe, which is a part of the reason the Fed feels that it has some slack for now, but the latest FOMC statement started to feel more hawkish, possibly because an end to the housing downturn is within sight and also because consensus has it that further monetary easing would have limited stimulating effect. Alan Greenspan said last month that we should be seeing housing prices bottom out well before early next year which is great news for the credit crunched sectors, but it will likely mean that some tightening will come sooner rather than later, contributing to a bear market.

Regardless of what you may think of him, Alan Greenspan is one of the most thorough econometricians (?) in the world, and even more importantly, markets listen and adjust according to his analysis. That's not to say that he can never be wrong or that he doesn't perhaps have an agenda, but to dismiss his analysis outright doesn't seem appropriate.

So we have the DAX and DJI/S&P futures DOWN 200 pips, and GJ UP 190 pips / EJ up 150 pips. Right, okay

So much for the tight correlation

Guess we can start edging away from that again now..at least in any kind of direct, undelayed synch.

Hi Sl, here is one of the charts that I finally found on my computer, a little disorganised, let me know if yoy want a detailed daily as well, will look some more. This is one is not mine but my view is exact with it so I had saved it a while back it is nice and clean enjoy.