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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #601
  • Jan 29, 2007 3:04am Jan 29, 2007 3:04am
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Morning Steve,

Good start to the day, but that usd/cad is still undicided? I am sitting the same as you but are buying usd/cad.

Can you let me know what your biggest drawdown position as been as a percentage of your initial investment? And having seen the progress of your system would it not be worth leveraging 200/1 or more?

thanks
  • #602
  • Jan 29, 2007 3:42am Jan 29, 2007 3:42am
stevie,

well your cumulative pips total since nov is over 2k so again what i'm about to say might be moot:

have you looked at how correlation is affecting your overall performance? i think you trade 5 (primarily) usd pairs, however you do say you take one trade at a time i think. i think i made this point before, your net dollar exposure starts stacking up once you trade more than one pair.

have you considered euro or gbp crosses to get some diversification?

my guess is that your performance might improve (even more) if you did...

ps: as always take my advice with a large dose of salt if you're still raking in the pips!!!
  • #603
  • Jan 29, 2007 6:20am Jan 29, 2007 6:20am
Quoting Isotonic
stevie,

well your cumulative pips total since nov is over 2k so again what i'm about to say might be moot:

have you looked at how correlation is affecting your overall performance? i think you trade 5 (primarily) usd pairs, however you do say you take one trade at a time i think. i think i made this point before, your net dollar exposure starts stacking up once you trade more than one pair.

have you considered euro or gbp crosses to get some diversification?

my guess is that your performance might improve (even more) if you did...

ps: as always take my advice with a large dose of salt if you're still raking in the pips!!!
Thanks again for your comments

Yes, the heavy correlation is a very good point but what I've found in my method is that this actually helps.

The reason being that my initial stops are (reasonably) small so if the $ goes against me I don't lose a great deal. Conversely, because I let the winners ride, if I am correct in my $ assessment, I can end up with multiple trades with hundreds of pips, which has happened on a couple of occasions so far.

I'd say that this actually makes the system as successful as it is (unless of course I have a bit of a nightmare in my trade analysis lol)

Thanks again - much appreciated

Kind regards
Steve
  • #604
  • Jan 29, 2007 6:22am Jan 29, 2007 6:22am
Quoting markt
Morning Steve,

Good start to the day, but that usd/cad is still undicided? I am sitting the same as you but are buying usd/cad.

Can you let me know what your biggest drawdown position as been as a percentage of your initial investment? And having seen the progress of your system would it not be worth leveraging 200/1 or more?

thanks
Hi Mark,

I thinks that's a very good strategy - see what I'm doing on UCAD & do the opposite

On a serious note, drawdowns have been virtually non-existent so far - 5% at most which was soon recovered - I'm keeping the risk the same at present but once the year is up it may be worth thinking about risking more. Maybe I'm just cautious but having calculated how long it would take me at 10% a month compounded, I'm willing to wait.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #605
  • Jan 29, 2007 11:21am Jan 29, 2007 11:21am
Hmmm,

EURUSD stopped out for minus 25 pips - no matter.

Update later.

Total Pip Gain Jan 07: plus 691 pips
Cumulative since Nov 06: plus 2023 pips

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #606
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:27pm Jan 29, 2007 12:27pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Steve,

I have already included EUR/JPY since I started last Thursday night, currently still trading and up 102 pips. I will bring in GBP/JPY tonight. Although there is a 5 & 10 pip spread these numbers really do not matter for much with your system looking for the trend. I believe more pairs can only but add to the system in both spread of risk and potential returns.

mark
  • #607
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:31pm Jan 29, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting markt
Steve,

I have already included EUR/JPY since I started last Thursday night, currently still trading and up 102 pips. I will bring in GBP/JPY tonight. Although there is a 5 & 10 pip spread these numbers really do not matter for much with your system looking for the trend. I believe more pairs can only but add to the system in both spread of risk and potential returns.

mark
That's great Mark

Yup, I think it should work in just about any pair over time as the market will always trend a certain percentage of the time. You just need to be patient enough & disciplined enough and more often than not the trend will find you.

Did we agree on a pint a pip?

Kind regards
Steve
  • #608
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:36pm Jan 29, 2007 12:36pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Sure..... I may hold you to that!! Your just around the M25!

I am going to start another demo tonight trading with a larger leverage and see where that takes us. I want to push it and see! I will report as I go!

mark
  • #609
  • Jan 29, 2007 12:39pm Jan 29, 2007 12:39pm
Quoting markt
Sure..... I may hold you to that!! Your just around the M25!

I am going to start another demo tonight trading with a larger leverage and see where that takes us. I want to push it and see! I will report as I go!

mark
Thanks, thats cool - I believe in positive expectancy & I positively expect to succeed hehe
  • #610
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:15pm Jan 29, 2007 1:15pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Me too! think positive.. I am thinking Sandy Lane in Barbados next Christmas with my lap top! he he
  • #611
  • Jan 29, 2007 3:47pm Jan 29, 2007 3:47pm
with your performance so far, ignore what i say!!! :

if you can close out this month above 2000 then you should be 500 pips ahead of target!

looks like GU has been choppy past two months since the nice nov rally - if you came out ahead on this pair then that bodes well for the future.

be interesting to see if you can make your annual target, with all the world watching (so no pressure then!)

count me as one of the viewers!!!

Quoting steviet
Thanks again for your comments

Yes, the heavy correlation is a very good point but what I've found in my method is that this actually helps.

The reason being that my initial stops are (reasonably) small so if the $ goes against me I don't lose a great deal. Conversely, because I let the winners ride, if I am correct in my $ assessment, I can end up with multiple trades with hundreds of pips, which has happened on a couple of occasions so far.

I'd say that this actually makes the system as successful as it is (unless of course I have a bit of a nightmare in my trade analysis lol)

Thanks again - much appreciated

Kind regards
Steve
  • #612
  • Jan 29, 2007 3:56pm Jan 29, 2007 3:56pm
Quoting Isotonic
with your performance so far, ignore what i say!!! :

if you can close out this month above 2000 then you should be 500 pips ahead of target!

looks like GU has been choppy past two months since the nice nov rally - if you came out ahead on this pair then that bodes well for the future.

be interesting to see if you can make your annual target, with all the world watching (so no pressure then!)

count me as one of the viewers!!!
No pressure
  • #613
  • Jan 29, 2007 4:08pm Jan 29, 2007 4:08pm
OK, another day over and stop losses tightened on the 4 existing trades....

USDCAD short from 1.1792 (s/l 1.1854 guarantees minus 62 pips)
USDCHF long from 1.2535 (s/l 1.2502 guarantees minus 33 pips)
USDJPY long from 121.49 (s/l 121.33 guarantees minus 16 pips)
GBPUSD short from 1.9693 (s/l 1.9628 guarantees plus 65 pips)

New trade.....

EURUSD short from 1.2955 (s/l 1.2977 guarantees minus 22 pips)

OK, I know we've seen a pretty strong Euro today against all currencies and a bull daily bar on EU too. It's at a level now where it has struggled to get past and on risk alone I've gone short rather than risking more on a long.

It's been a difficult couple of weeks but I've come through reasonably unscathed which is a promising sign.

Current trades worst case scenario would be all trades stopped out for a net loss of 68 pips which wouldn't be a huge blow.

Once the news starts hitting this week I think we'll see a more definable trend in some of the pairs making it easier to trade.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #614
  • Jan 29, 2007 4:16pm Jan 29, 2007 4:16pm
I had a Demo with the GBP/USD on your Short, and it is tracking very well.

I looked over at the EUR/USD (don't tell anyone on my thread, because I am only suppose to be trading Cable).

I liked the Entry point for your Short, that would be in the 50% Fibo level, and about 20 pips below the 61.8% Fibo mark.

I will join in the fun, but my eye is still on the Cable. LOL

Our little secret......

Thanks for the info!

(by the way, I have a lot on each GBP and EUR with my real Account - Demo's are not my style)
  • #615
  • Jan 29, 2007 4:18pm Jan 29, 2007 4:18pm
Quoting monarch
I had a Demo with the GBP/USD on your Short, and it is tracking very well.

I looked over at the EUR/USD (don't tell anyone on my thread, because I am only suppose to be trading Cable).

I liked the Entry point you at your Short, that would be in the 50% Fibo level, and about 20 pips below the 61.8% Fibo mark.

I will join in the fun, but my eye is still on the Cable. LOL

Our little secret......

Thanks for the info!
My lips are sealed

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #616
  • Jan 30, 2007 12:14am Jan 30, 2007 12:14am
Ehh monarch

Hehe.
  • #617
  • Jan 30, 2007 1:10am Jan 30, 2007 1:10am
Quoting monarch
I had a Demo with the GBP/USD on your Short, and it is tracking very well.

I looked over at the EUR/USD (don't tell anyone on my thread, because I am only suppose to be trading Cable).

I liked the Entry point for your Short, that would be in the 50% Fibo level, and about 20 pips below the 61.8% Fibo mark.

I will join in the fun, but my eye is still on the Cable. LOL

Our little secret......

Thanks for the info!

(by the way, I have a lot on each GBP and EUR with my real Account - Demo's are not my style)
Oh man, Monarch is cheating! He has another source of pips, not only cable!

And Steve, thanks for your nice journal, esp. about the money management. I think you're the Stevie Wonder of forex.
Tra-X
  • #618
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:05am Jan 30, 2007 3:05am
if you ever need to replace usdcad then you could either go for a cad cross such as eurcad or cadjpy (might run into a spread problem) or better still go for a euro cross like eurchf - sits well in just about any portfolio.

another idea is to look outside forex, back test on an index - you could try ftse100 (2 pip spread)...

Quoting steviet
Hi Jean-Louis & welcome

I initially tested only these 5 pairs because of the small spread - my first backtest was done on the basis that each trade was closed at the end of each day & then re-opened. I soon changed the method to what it is now because you lose the spread every time you open/close a position & keeping them open for days & sometimes weeks means more pips.

So far, I'm finding USDCAD a real challenge but the others have been good to me. I'll keep plugging away with these five unless the pattern continues with UCAD in which case a substitute may be needed.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #619
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:13am Jan 30, 2007 3:13am
Quoting Isotonic
if you ever need to replace usdcad then you could either go for a cad cross such as eurcad or cadjpy (might run into a spread problem) or better still go for a euro cross like eurchf - sits well in just about any portfolio.

another idea is to look outside forex, back test on an index - you could try ftse100 (2 pip spread)...
Hate to slop up Steve's journal but I'll throw in the dax trades real well too.

Sorry Steve
  • #620
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:22am Jan 30, 2007 3:22am
hi steve,

i don't wish to hijack your thread (for too long) but you make some interesting points worth commenting on, since i've run across similar problems. i'll comment on them as you bring them up.

i agree that trailing stops are the way to go! most traders (including most pros) cut their profits far too early either manually or with take profits. however there is still a dilemma of when to exit. trailing stops can take that decision away from you and let the market decide, so that is also one technique i use.

however i find that a multiple exit strategy is best. if you compare my recent chart with the one you posted you can see them in action. i also look at the bar patterns of a recent rally, so at the first point of consolidation or reversal i may exit manually rather than trail my stop. a point you made earlier was to always wait for your stop to be hit before deciding again. i still have that option of course but i will look to override if the pattern doesn't feel right. if that happens and the trend is still up i will place stop orders above recent highs or lows in these areas (arrows on charts). these roughly compare to "exhaustion" areas you've circled. so if the market is still up i should get filled. this way i still take profit and stay in the trend hopefully.

also once the major trend is over (close outside trend line) i will exit all positions, and normally some kind of consolidation period will form that i will watch and look for breaks. it's amazing how many times you will see trendlines->consolidation->breakout->new trend->consolidation... etc

your journal has been like a breath of fresh air around FF recently - best by miles. it's certainly challenged my thinking as well!

i will try not to intrude too much, let me know if i'm being a pain in the a**!!!
Quoting steviet
Every trade is run to the bitter (or better) end which is how I tested the set up initially. I never close early even if it means having a trade over 100 pips in profit reverse to break even or worse.

That's why I'd be surprised if many would trade as I do but my feeling is that way you can also be cutting your profits short. The whole essence of the system is catching a large portion of a trend.

See below my best trade so far from 1.8954 to 1.9715 (761 pips). The first daily bar after the one I opened looked like it may have exhausted - would you have taken profit? What about the next circled bar? What about the next? See what I mean - by being disciplined you can catch the really big ones & that's how the system works!

Kind Regards
Steve
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