Technical Analysis Fallacy
oil.. Goldman released a report, they probably were long..
First of all, i wanna thanks fti for proding me a whole new perspective on trading, leighsww for her motherly care, she never seizes to get you back down to earth when she feels that you going astray and pioneers like Zoran & Northpro who managed to engage fti into sharing his perspectives.
I have traded fti's method for a little over a month, and paper traded it in the first quarter of 08. While i find paper trading almost useless...(you see i sorta quitipled the account, and it made me build castles in the heavens), i have to admit that it does give me some sort of frame work to begin with.
My trading plan was a simple one.
Trade Time : est 8am - 1pm (Euro close). DOnt trade friday, due to family commitments
Pairs : GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY
Time Frame : Look backs 1hr and 5mins. Entries using 200ticks.
Risk : 2% (tallied)
Method :
To begin, i will look at the daily range, if the pair has completed it average range, my approach is likely to be a counter trend technique. I also started to keep tabs on the news (yes, i've learnt my lesson) and make it a point to eyeball the 5min price movement of the index futures namely the dow snp and nasdaq.
The great thing abt it is now i can vaguely feel if the market is faking its moves on news casts. Like example yesterday, nafp home prices, is almost an irrelevant data and oil went down to $123 is really no big deal, but someone decided that euro should dump 50pips for nothing, i'd let the price stretch and went long, there was a slight hint to me initially that it may be a stop hunting but i only know so much. lol
Slowly, im starting to realise what fti meant by doing the ant's job (in my own view of course). You see, i have found that i am most comfy when i can lock my profits, so i scale my positions in an unorthodox manner. I have employed the use of stochastics and RSI to look for stetching points and momentum weakness etc, this is where i would essentially collect my dues, not all but little by little. On adding up positions, i will employ this technique when i see weakness/strength in the 200tick swings that may suggest trend continuation.
Yes im liking these ticks, on fast markets the swings are nice and easy to identify, and by using ticks i have finally managed to do what i've been yearning to do....TO TRADE LIKE LUSAN. Looking back, I have seen that i could finally make 2 entries on a single 5min bar. You see, ticks, they are not dominated by time, they move in accordance to the orders that were dealt with so the price is always vibrating, so when the orders are fast and furious you will see the ticks forming real fast and PRETTY, you will feel the volatility....you will 'feel' the dance better, im serious, well to me of course. lol.
Okay back to ants job thingy, so in a nutshell, i trade 4 days a week. and i just did a compilation of my perfromance since 15ofApr till 15ofMay. A one month performance study indicated that I have increased my account by 9.7%, average daily performance is abt 0.6% and a max loss of 0.8%. Its not impressive but im quite happy with what i've done. I'm gonna see if i can keep it up for the coming months.
I would like to thank fti and all you guys for making it possible. Keep the faith.
kind regards,
jest
Thanks for the compliment. You confirmed that the fast dance is possible for other people beside lusan.
I am not so systematic...I just watch the 30 s and the 5M and decide what to do after the trend is biased by the 1D and 15M...does it work?...It seems so..you obtain similar results to the one that I got by my carefully watching the 5M and 30S...about 0.5 % ROE...and this happens very very fast...WARNING: you heart might break if you are not ready for fast action. There is no much time to think...anyone who want to dance like this better practice a lot...Avoid my style if your finger are slow..I am still exploring its potential and risks.
today I showed some people at my previous work how I forex trade and they were in shock when I demonstrated how easy is to trade for 0.5 % ROE/hour...and that is a trouble...because fti shows how to do this, winning seems too easy and we slowly might fall into the invinsibility trap!...I did once and I am still trying to figure out how not do to it again...
Since I just became a full time forex trading...OOPS!!...until I find another job..I will see how I do...I will be trading 5 days/week with a 0.5 % ROE daily target...I just funded my initial account with 10k...my target will be $25/day and then $50/day...That is not much to ask, right? Just enough to make a living while I learn more about forex and find another job....
Who knows? I might just do forex for the rest of my life...we will see...
I wonder what the chief, fit, would say...damn it! I love forex trading...I had too much vodka!:blushing:
Regards,
FTI, you got to stop that cancer stick, history is not always painted pretty even tho its nostalgic. You sound like my dad, a liberated soul but a physical wreck, he's a hard head too, like you, thank god he stopped but it may be too late already, he's fighting for his life against it.... I've lost a few close ones to cancer already....he's proly next in line...
Forest Gump, that is my man!
He said "you never know what you are going to get!"
Today I got the news...the company I worked for laidoff everyone doing research...so I suddendly became
a full time forex trader....
Wish me luck!
Me? I am a scientist...
Smoking?...we were lucky of never taking this one up...
What sort of scientist? I could claim to be a scientist, but I don't (normally).
The reason you never took up smoking is because you were never conned into believing the fallacy, plain and simple. However, your opinion of smoking is that of every other smoker! Now that is as true as the market is always right!
So who is just about to light one up?
