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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #81,901
  • May 18, 2008 2:29pm May 18, 2008 2:29pm
it means that fibonacci expansion level 100% tells when a 123 (abc) pattern ends for high highs and lower lows patterns, and vice versa.


[quote=OrionsWay;2006716]
Quoting lilmoe
Note: FE 100 always signals completion of a cycle.

What does this mean?
  • #81,902
  • May 18, 2008 2:34pm May 18, 2008 2:34pm
[quote=lilmoe;2006724]it means that fibonacci expansion level 100% tells when a 123 (abc) pattern ends for high highs and lower lows patterns, and vice versa.

BUt that only occurs at a 1.144 or 1.270 retracement of previous swing, better known as a decision point. Breaching this means a continuation of expansion and count is thrown out the window.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #81,903
  • May 18, 2008 2:35pm May 18, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting kujo17
high today so far was 203.83 and low has been 202.80, so I think this shows where we're probably headed.

Bearish Divergence all week on the 4H, both UJ and GJ.
Slight hidden Bearish Divergence the last two days on the Daily.

I think we'll see 198-196 area before a run at 209 again.

See you all in a few hours.

i would suggest 197 as very good support; it's where the march candle (montly) closed, and 200.0 fibo retracement extension (not expansion) from 219 low to 241 high. we need this month to close below that level (197) in order to see 184 in the following months, other wise 213 is our target. i truly believe so.
  • #81,904
  • May 18, 2008 2:37pm May 18, 2008 2:37pm
i think we're interpreting the same thing.

[quote=OrionsWay;2006730]
Quoting lilmoe
it means that fibonacci expansion level 100% tells when a 123 (abc) pattern ends for high highs and lower lows patterns, and vice versa.

BUt that only occurs at a 1.144 or 1.270 retracement of previous swing, better known as a decision point. Breaching this means a continuation of expansion and count is thrown out the window.
  • #81,905
  • May 18, 2008 2:38pm May 18, 2008 2:38pm
I am with you on your view that it could go to the lower trendline lilmoe, but I don't think it will break to the downside, but resume it's bullish bias and break to the upside, but who knows.
It will certainly will be interesting in the next weeks months. We are at a very important junction in many pairs and the dow.
  • #81,906
  • May 18, 2008 2:39pm May 18, 2008 2:39pm
[quote=lilmoe;2006734]i think we're interpreting the same thing.


DOH!!!! prolly i never liked the 3 point expansion, i have found direct swing projections better as a retracement expansion or a hi lo expansion of desired swing
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #81,907
  • May 18, 2008 2:40pm May 18, 2008 2:40pm
Quoting lilmoe
i think we're interpreting the same thing.
my notes and analysis are based on personal observation of that pair on higher TFs, u're welcome not to accept my interpretations.
  • #81,908
  • May 18, 2008 2:41pm May 18, 2008 2:41pm
lol, u just need to know where to draw those suckers. i tend to draw them where i see true respect of the other "less significant" levels

[quote=OrionsWay;2006738]
Quoting lilmoe
i think we're interpreting the same thing.


DOH!!!! prolly i never liked the 3 point expansion, i have found direct swing projections better as a retracement expansion or a hi lo expansion of desired swing
  • #81,909
  • May 18, 2008 2:41pm May 18, 2008 2:41pm
hi all
lilmoe, kujo17
  • #81,910
  • May 18, 2008 2:44pm May 18, 2008 2:44pm
by the way Orion. if u notice, i do use .5, .786, 1.272, 2, 2.618, and 3.382 on my FEs, i have never seen those levels in books nor with other traders, only my personal preference.

secret: this is where u actually see me jumping with a short or long when all of u are going the opposite way, and this is how i catch "tops" and "bottoms", in answer to most of shakes' questions to me.
  • #81,911
  • May 18, 2008 2:45pm May 18, 2008 2:45pm
i don't use MAs... but i agree with you, at this moment the bias is bearish. even if h4 chart looks undecided, daily and weekly charts are clearly bearish (daily has broken a trend line to the downside, and right now it just finished testing it from the downside; weekly looks like a huge reverse bearish divergence on macd histogram with cci rejected below 0).
i would go with a break of 204.45 for a bullish move. but even in this case, the bias would remain bearish and next level to watch for a drop would be 206 area.

Quoting malcolmb14
Plot a 50 sma on your charts and you can see that we are trapped under the 50 sma on 1 hour , 2 hour , 4 hour and 8 hour.

Break of the 8 hour 50sma at 205 would verify the bullish movement to the upside.

Also on a 4 hour we are at the bottom of a bear flag that has already tested close to 61.8% of the move down . If we bounce off this then it would confirm the bullish bias.

However I still favour a bearish bias due to my indicators:

The regular rsi is still under 50 , macd histogram is under 0 and macd is in a bearish stack ( fast under slow) and the rapid rsi is pointing down for now , all are bearish

I put a fib expansion on a 1-2-3 sell using 209 , 199.8 , 205 as the high , low and lower high . I have support at 202.8 ( 23.6% fib ). A break of this will favor the bear scenario.

Not much news coming out of the US this week till later in the week.

Attachment
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #81,912
  • May 18, 2008 2:46pm May 18, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting Jerry
hi all
lilmoe, kujo17

yo yo, watap!
  • #81,913
  • May 18, 2008 2:48pm May 18, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting Scrat
i don't use MAs... but i agree with you, at this moment the bias is bearish. even if h4 chart looks undecided, daily and weekly charts are clearly bearish (daily has broken a trend line to the downside, and right now it just finished testing it from the downside; weekly looks like a huge reverse bearish divergence on macd histogram with cci rejected below 0).
i would go with a break of 204.45 for a bullish move. but even in this case, the bias would remain bearish and next level to watch for a drop would be 206 area.

yea, 205.50 - 206 would be where price meats lower TL since it's an ascending channel.
  • #81,914
  • May 18, 2008 2:51pm May 18, 2008 2:51pm
It seems that due to some tweaks by IBFX this weekend, I am not able to see Friday's bar, and so I will have to wait for Sunday's close to compare price to TL's, but I am seeing a retest to somewhere in 200-199 area and then back up again.

I will have to recheck later when all my bars are filled back in and I see what happened over the weekend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #81,915
  • May 18, 2008 2:52pm May 18, 2008 2:52pm
XE is currently showing 203.37, now aint that some eye candy
  • #81,916
  • Edited 3:06pm May 18, 2008 2:54pm | Edited 3:06pm
Lilmoe yea those are just basic projection numbers


Their are static harmonic and geometric sets of ratio's some pertain greater to certain markets than others, and dont forget lucas
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #81,917
  • May 18, 2008 3:02pm May 18, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting lilmoe
XE is currently showing 203.37, now aint that some eye candy

Oanda Platform is open and currently trading at 203.38/58, large spread due to low volume, spread gets better at around 0000 GMT for me.
  • #81,918
  • May 18, 2008 3:05pm May 18, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting shakesfx
Oanda Platform is open and currently trading at 203.38/58, large spread due to low volume, spread gets better at around 0000 GMT for me.
my broker provides fixed spread
  • #81,919
  • May 18, 2008 3:06pm May 18, 2008 3:06pm
Quoting lilmoe
my broker provides fixed spread
Even now?
  • #81,920
  • May 18, 2008 3:08pm May 18, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting shakesfx
Even now?
yeppers
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