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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #81,881
  • Edited 9:05am May 18, 2008 8:48am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting scyang
Do you have an account with any of these companies? I can't get forex-markets.com to show rates. It keeps saying "wait". I am just not sure about the other two, whether they are actually real-time quotes during the weekend.

Anybody has a better understanding?

XE has 205.057 this morning over 130pips from friday's close price, as I mentioned, XE correct prices just before market opens. Now XE are on 203.518

As for www.forex-markets.com they use aplets from NetDania and data feed from www.tenfore.com (independant data provider). I can see them all the time. It is very interesting with www.netdania.com they are making software solutions for lot of Brokers (http://www.netdania.com/references.asp) and they use tenfore as a data providers.. so ...

The other thing is: from Saturday the price moves from 202.83 to 203.27, 203.17 and now is on 203.24 (the only one site I can see that price is moving durring the weekends)
  • #81,882
  • May 18, 2008 8:56am May 18, 2008 8:56am
Quoting Piters
XE has 205.057 this morning over 130pips from friday's close price, as I mentioned, XE correct prices just before market opens. Now XE are on 203.518

As for www.forex-markets.com they use aplets from NetDania and data feed from www.tenfore.com (independant data provider). I can see them all the time. It is very interesting with www.netdania.com they are making software solutions for lot of Brokers (http://www.netdania.com/references.asp) and they use tenfore as a data providers.. so ...

The other thing is: from Saturday the price moves from 202.83 to 203.27, 203.17 and now is on 203.24 (the only one site I can see that price is moving durring the weekends) I am going to find out how accurate are in 9-10h
If these prices are real-time, it's bad news for the GBPJPY short guys, and same is true for USDJPY short guys.
Expected the unexpected
  • #81,883
  • May 18, 2008 9:10am May 18, 2008 9:10am
Here is a chart that shows possible GJ movement, although this is a little premature until I see where Sunday bar will close.

Also, I am fairly new to TL trading and wondering what some good S/L points might be that you all have used. I was thinking 50 pips for the majors, 75 pips for the less volitle crosses and 100 pips for the more volitle crosses.

Any advice you can give me would be fantastical.

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #81,884
  • May 18, 2008 9:12am May 18, 2008 9:12am
Quoting lilmoe
i'm not sure why, but i had some interest (after the good ole fella 251) about the relationship between oil prices and GJ. if u take a look at the following chart, u will notice that when oil reaches any of the drawn fibo levels and extensions the price falls back to retest the prior level. however when oil gets NEAR the next extension, GJ makes its MOVE, 600-2000 pips. some good weekly candle examples are july 29, november 4th, december 30, feb 17th - march 16th. and now the current weekly oil candle is at 261 fibo extension.

don't u guys find it "weird" or at least interesting?

conclusion: i'm expecting my crapper to go in "ultimate mode" soon. and i'm really expecting oil to go back to 97-105$ a barrel by the end of this month or mid next month. any comments?

Attachment

If oil is about to go down, wouldn't that make gbp/jpy go up?
  • #81,885
  • May 18, 2008 9:16am May 18, 2008 9:16am
Quoting Dmac
If oil is about to go down, wouldn't that make gbp/jpy go up?
And why do you think oil will go down? I don't see that happening in the short term.
Expected the unexpected
  • #81,886
  • May 18, 2008 9:18am May 18, 2008 9:18am
Quoting scyang
And why do you think oil will go down? I don't see that happening in the short term.

Maybe I misunderstood Lilmoe"s post. I thought he was implying that oil had reached the next fib extension and was about to retrace to the previous extension. Lilmoe help me out.
  • #81,887
  • May 18, 2008 9:30am May 18, 2008 9:30am
Quoting DutchTrader
Im also on a Mac I can't do it either
use the application 'GRAB'

it allows you to shoot a pic of the whole desktop or just a selection area.

this is what I use on my mac to post charts.
Works great.
  • #81,888
  • May 18, 2008 9:33am May 18, 2008 9:33am
Quoting lilmoe
hi putto

i'm actually not finding any "significant" relationship between dow and oil, so if u could point it out more clearly plz?

however on EJ, yes it has a very good relationship with GJ, but not the same pattern. i'm seeing a huge symmetrical triangle formation on EJ. and if u want to go by the rules, EJ is extremely bearish and should retest the lower TL by next week or the week after. there's also a huge inside bar (latest weekly candle) which i'm pretty sure it should head south from there. however, if the upmove should continue, then i would suggest a 123 (ABC) pattern on a fib expansion with first resistance being at 165.24 and ultimate destination of 171.87 on the longer run.

however, since 78.6 (yellow fibo retracement) was pierced through (with lower TL in confluence with that level) and price successfully reached 23.6 fib, AND price respected upper TL resistance which was actually in another confluence with 23.6, i would suggest bearish reversal to 78.6 again and from there down to 150 (FE 100) area.

i've noted some major longterm resistance and support areas. check them out.

plz show me ur comments

Attachment
Hi Lilmoe

The correlation between oil and DOW is on a fundamentals level: an increase in oil prices will theoretically cause an increase in inflation and potential deflation of currency. This will in turn of course send the equities market, ie the Dow, downwards in a panic in an expectancy of future financial troubles. Simple as that! So whenever OIL surges further the DOW reacts negatively. I dont need to explain the effect of the Dow to our JPY right?

There is also a more direct link of oil prices to US pegged currencies; a weaker dollar makes it more attractive for investors in other currencies to buy dollar-denominated crude, increasing demand and driving the price up per barrel.

However the Dow/Oil relationship is not by any means a one-one movement deal as you have external variables such as supply shortages and high demands for oil also currently driving up prices of oil, and similarly external factors such as profit reports, news realeases and general market sentiment also affecting Dow performance.

I cant argue with your technical reasoning on EJ but we will have to see what the market throws at us this week! We all know she is a temperamental mistress who can scoff at all the fibs you want to throw at her. Longterm i wont get excited about EJ until this range is broken and both currencies start to work together. GJ on the other hand looks very promising this week!
Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
  • #81,889
  • May 18, 2008 9:48am May 18, 2008 9:48am
Quoting kujo17
use the application 'GRAB'

it allows you to shoot a pic of the whole desktop or just a selection area.

this is what I use on my mac to post charts.
Works great.
Where is that application?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #81,890
  • May 18, 2008 10:18am May 18, 2008 10:18am
Quoting lilmoe
hi putto

i'm actually not finding any "significant" relationship between dow and oil, so if u could point it out more clearly plz?

however on EJ, yes it has a very good relationship with GJ, but not the same pattern. i'm seeing a huge symmetrical triangle formation on EJ. and if u want to go by the rules, EJ is extremely bearish and should retest the lower TL by next week or the week after. there's also a huge inside bar (latest weekly candle) which i'm pretty sure it should head south from there. however, if the upmove should continue, then i would suggest a 123 (ABC) pattern on a fib expansion with first resistance being at 165.24 and ultimate destination of 171.87 on the longer run.

however, since 78.6 (yellow fibo retracement) was pierced through (with lower TL in confluence with that level) and price successfully reached 23.6 fib, AND price respected upper TL resistance which was actually in another confluence with 23.6, i would suggest bearish reversal to 78.6 again and from there down to 150 (FE 100) area.

i've noted some major longterm resistance and support areas. check them out.

plz show me ur comments

Attachment
I respect your opinion, but I can't see where eur/jpy is extremely bearish.
In the contrary in my opinion it's extremely bullish.

Maybe it's a big continuation pattern which will be broken to the upside similar to 2003/2004
  • #81,891
  • May 18, 2008 10:21am May 18, 2008 10:21am
Quoting DutchTrader
Where is that application?

shift command 4 will allow you to constrain a box around the chart let go and it will take a picture and leave on desktop
  • #81,892
  • May 18, 2008 12:39pm May 18, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Where is that application?
mac hd>applications>untilities

Run it.
top tool bar, go to capture
selection

select the area of the platform/chart you want to make an image of.
release the mouse.

the image is made.

it's a TIFF file. Save as '4H Divergence' or what have you.....

open iPhoto

Import
then, export at jpg and reduce to about 1200 pixels wide
Save

upload to FF !!

easy as pie, once you do it a few times.......
  • #81,893
  • May 18, 2008 1:11pm May 18, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting Dmac
Maybe I misunderstood Lilmoe"s post. I thought he was implying that oil had reached the next fib extension and was about to retrace to the previous extension. Lilmoe help me out.
Any response to this would be appreciated
  • #81,894
  • May 18, 2008 1:16pm May 18, 2008 1:16pm
market opening is coming...
this h4 chart speaks for itself. i see 2 things:
1. a possible reverse (or hidden) bullish divergence - or a bullish flag, if you want - that is not confirmed yet. an h4 close above the channel means another rally to 205.8 - 206 area.
2. on the other hand, if we get a close below the channel i would say 196 this week.
now... my guess would be up during the first part of the week, then down. this is because the general opinion is towards the short side... and we all know how much big guys love to run stops in situations like this, and then drive the price back to where it was expected to be from the beginning.
anyway, trade what you see not what you feel.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #81,895
  • May 18, 2008 1:39pm May 18, 2008 1:39pm
i can't argue with ur fundies either... my argument and question was strictly technical, since my first argument about oil and GJ were coincidental technical analysis. i absolutely do NOT depend on fibs for entries and exits on large timeframes, the price can range in a 200 pip interval "around" that level and still be considered "respecting" that level (take a look at my first oil chart). those levels give me sell zone and buy zone areas with other "lower" TFs as leading signals that tell me where to get in or out.

now, about the fundies: just like i said, i can't argue with ur argument. first because i'm not a fundamental pro, simply put. second, because there are lots of "hidden" events (Data) out there that someone like me or urself don't have access to. which is true i believe. you would think that a market is "reacting" to some piece of data recently released, BUT, i do believe that the market has "already" reacted to that piece of data a week or a month ago, just because the "fundamental indicators" where very clear before hand. the 100 pip rally on the good data and 100 pip dip on the bad data we received last friday was just a small impact in own opinion. you would actually see the effects of that data way before when GJ rallied 1000 pips. HOWEVER. if i don't see a 2500 pip rally in one month of time, to me, it means that GJ is still BEARISH. that's how i understand fundies. might be pretty unprofessional, but i think it's as simple as that.

right now we are at crossroads as the other guys are saying here. but i still am "extremely" bearish biased at both EJ and GJ at the moment. i do not trade EJ, and i don't use it as a GJ indicator, i treat each pair as a separate entity that has it's own supply and demand, and of course, technical patterns.

the fibo levels i posted on EJ and Oil WILL be respected either on a bearish or a bullish movement. i'm still expecting a retracement on oil to the 108 levels hopefully this week which is in conjunction with president bush's visit in the middle east. if oil is not able to breach that level then yes, 140$ a barrel is absolutely inevitable by next month.

GJ on the other hand ACTs big time (i think) when oil Approaches one of those fibo levels i mentioned. the pattern that we had since it's 10 month (dump) did not change; 1)dump, 2)consolidation under a channel or TL, 3)breach of TL (downwards), respecting that TL as resistance, 4)dump again.

i said that and i will say it again, if that lower TL is breached upwards and "conforms" as support, then please dump my analysis and expect 213 as a first correctional target which could actually lead into the winding of our good ole carry trade. until then i would suggest to those who care about longer term trades to SELL RALLIES.

i like your argument though, good job

Quoting Putto
Hi Lilmoe

The correlation between oil and DOW is on a fundamentals level: an increase in oil prices will theoretically cause an increase in inflation and potential deflation of currency. This will in turn of course send the equities market, ie the Dow, downwards in a panic in an expectancy of future financial troubles. Simple as that! So whenever OIL surges further the DOW reacts negatively. I dont need to explain the effect of the Dow to our JPY right?

There is also a more direct link of oil prices to US pegged currencies; a weaker dollar makes it more attractive for investors in other currencies to buy dollar-denominated crude, increasing demand and driving the price up per barrel.

However the Dow/Oil relationship is not by any means a one-one movement deal as you have external variables such as supply shortages and high demands for oil also currently driving up prices of oil, and similarly external factors such as profit reports, news realeases and general market sentiment also affecting Dow performance.

I cant argue with your technical reasoning on EJ but we will have to see what the market throws at us this week! We all know she is a temperamental mistress who can scoff at all the fibs you want to throw at her. Longterm i wont get excited about EJ until this range is broken and both currencies start to work together. GJ on the other hand looks very promising this week!
  • #81,896
  • May 18, 2008 2:04pm May 18, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting Kurti
I respect your opinion, but I can't see where eur/jpy is extremely bearish.
In the contrary in my opinion it's extremely bullish.

Maybe it's a big continuation pattern which will be broken to the upside similar to 2003/2004

200 pips away from major resistance and 700 pips away from major support. to me that's still bearish.

here's a better chart (clearer) that describes what i have in my little mind.
something i learned the hard way: simple patterns and charts do work. no need to fill the chart with pattern strategies and indicators especially on big TFs, here's a zoom in and out to explain more.

the brown fibs are historical. we are having the same pattern we had that started in november of last year. the rest is self explanatory, if u need more details i'd be more that delighted.

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  • #81,897
  • May 18, 2008 2:04pm May 18, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting Scrat
market opening is coming...
this h4 chart speaks for itself. i see 2 things:
1. a possible reverse (or hidden) bullish divergence - or a bullish flag, if you want - that is not confirmed yet. an h4 close above the channel means another rally to 205.8 - 206 area.
2. on the other hand, if we get a close below the channel i would say 196 this week.
now... my guess would be up during the first part of the week, then down. this is because the general opinion is towards the short side... and we all know how much big guys love to run stops in situations like this, and then drive the price back to where it was expected to be from the beginning.
anyway, trade what you see not what you feel.
Plot a 50 sma on your charts and you can see that we are trapped under the 50 sma on 1 hour , 2 hour , 4 hour and 8 hour.

Break of the 8 hour 50sma at 205 would verify the bullish movement to the upside.

Also on a 4 hour we are at the bottom of a bear flag that has already tested close to 61.8% of the move down . If we bounce off this then it would confirm the bullish bias.

However I still favour a bearish bias due to my indicators:

The regular rsi is still under 50 , macd histogram is under 0 and macd is in a bearish stack ( fast under slow) and the rapid rsi is pointing down for now , all are bearish

I put a fib expansion on a 1-2-3 sell using 209 , 199.8 , 205 as the high , low and lower high . I have support at 202.8 ( 23.6% fib ). A break of this will favour the bear scenario.

Not much news coming out of the US this week till later in the week.

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #81,898
  • May 18, 2008 2:07pm May 18, 2008 2:07pm
Note: FE 100 always signals completion of a cycle. if breached, u can bet the price is going back there (down) for a retest. check it out on oil and most of cross (carry trade) pairs.


Quoting lilmoe
200 pips away from major resistance and 700 pips away from major support. to me that's still bearish.

here's a better chart (clearer) that describes what i have in my little mind.
something i learned the hard way: simple patterns and charts do work. no need to fill the chart with pattern strategies and indicators especially on big TFs, here's a zoom in and out to explain more.

the brown fibs are historical. we are having the same pattern we had that started in november of last year. the rest is self explanatory, if u need more details i'd be more that delighted.

Attachment

Attachment
  • #81,899
  • May 18, 2008 2:19pm May 18, 2008 2:19pm
[quote=lilmoe;2006704]Note: FE 100 always signals completion of a cycle.

What does this mean?
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #81,900
  • May 18, 2008 2:28pm May 18, 2008 2:28pm
high today so far was 203.83 and low has been 202.80, so I think this shows where we're probably headed.

Bearish Divergence all week on the 4H, both UJ and GJ.
Slight hidden Bearish Divergence the last two days on the Daily.

I think we'll see 198-196 area before a run at 209 again.

See you all in a few hours.
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