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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #81,861
  • May 17, 2008 12:21pm May 17, 2008 12:21pm
Quoting shakesfx
Please could you explain what you see on your chart seeing as you can't post it?

Dailies:
U/J looks Bearish
G/J looks bearish

E/J looks like it failed to breach 162.95 / 163.00 numerous times (daily) over the last Month which is major resistance. If E/J falls back I agree it will see G/J follow. What makes you think it is bullish? I agree E/J hasn't formed a strong Bearish reversal pattern, but maybe Friday afternoon covering is to blame? Is the Denmark advisor fairly accurate? - I've heard of it but don't have any knowledge of it.
There's no doubt GJ had a bullish weak last week, this week may be no different. Or not. Never know.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=751
  • #81,862
  • May 17, 2008 3:15pm May 17, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting malcolmb14
When you consider all things .. S&P around 1400 , dj - 30 hovering around the 13000 level , GU on long term support 1.9400 , UJ under long term resistance 105.50 , something has to give in the next month or so . We really are at a major crossroads in the markets right now.

The other thought is when 2 year yields were this high recently the USDJPY was at 108 .... does that mean that the UJ has 300 pips of catch up to do and does the 2 year yield signify a major move in the currency to come ?
mmmmmm........ Good point about the yields, seems we have non-correlating moves in the market at the moment...Do you think this is because of the G7 100 day rule and other statements/actions regarding Forex? The 100 day rule to reveal losses/ stabalise forex may be why we are range bound at the moment...Everyone's watching everyone else.
  • #81,863
  • May 17, 2008 3:55pm May 17, 2008 3:55pm
Quoting Clouds
I think this pair is bullish , but I can't make chart, I have a mac, anyone know how I can make chart/
shift command 4 will allow you to constrain a box around the chart let go and it will take a picture and leave on desktop
  • #81,864
  • Edited 5:46pm May 17, 2008 5:33pm | Edited 5:46pm
Quoting wired2199
shift command 4 will allow you to constrain a box around the chart let go and it will take a picture and leave on desktop
Great info. Thanks.

Ok, here is chart. When London open, I will anticipate it going up, and when I see it rising, I may buy, and wait 50 pips to set BE S/L. If it goes down, I don't think it will go below 200.35 or so. If it does, I see further down movement.
Attached Image
  • #81,865
  • May 17, 2008 9:19pm May 17, 2008 9:19pm
As of now, 10pm Saturday New York time, the weekend geppy pricing has moved down close to Friday's lows. Even if it doesn't gap and comes back up to Friday's close by market open tomorrow, does this mean that there is still downward pressure to come on Sunday/Monday? Or is weekend price movement irrelevant? Any knowledgeable insight would be most appreciated.
  • #81,866
  • Edited 11:59pm May 17, 2008 10:58pm | Edited 11:59pm
Quoting Clouds
* UJ and GU can move in opposite directions if there is dollar selling / or dollar buying, while GJ stands still if there is no interest in the yen or pound.

* GU and GJ can move in same direction if there is pound selling or buying, while UJ can stand still if there is no interest in the Yen or dollar.

* GJ and UJ can move in same direction if there is yen buying/ selling, while GU can stand still if there is no interest in the pound or dollar.

Please don't think too hard, and also I feel GJ is more likely to follow the other crosses, EJ, NJ, AJ. Especially EJ. Also remember your emotional feelings on where this pair will have no influence on the market.
Clouds again i think you slightly misunderstand the nature of the JPY crosses; they dont follow each other as a rule and and do not provide leading indicators. GJ = UJ x GU and EJ = UJ x EU etc etc. As UJ movement is priced in simultaneously on each cross (by the nature of the currencies there is no discernable lag or there would be bet the house arbitrage), the only way you could POSSIBLY theorize that GJ follows EJ is that GU follows EU around like a puppy reacting the same but at a slower pace, to market pressure. This is obviously not the case. Even where they (GU and EU) are similar (ie with US dollar buying/selling) they move from this pressure at the same time AND to variable extents according to the strength of the counter currency.

Where GU and EU are moving in opposite directions (HINT FOR EG SEE THE LAST SIX MONTHS) they ARENT even going to end up mirroring each other in the mid and long term, let alone be leading indicators. They only correlate when E/U and G/U movement is dictated by US buying/selling. They WILL differentiate according to EU and GU demand- it is pointless and potentially dangerous to trade one (ie GJ) based on the other (ie EJ). They are different beasts based on different variables. Open up a daily, weekly or monthly chart and you will see this.

They appear similar when both are being driven by UJ- but you will see over time that this is not always the case and the other pair is equally likely to be in control.

Also you should know in terms of GJ, that UJ, because of its value, is twice as impactful as GU (ie one pip in UJ = 2 pips GJ and one pip GU = one pip GJ movement). However on EJ it is closer to 1.5 pips for UJ movement and 1 pip for EU movement. This further complicates any attempted general cross analysis as movement in the base pairs have differing effects on the respective crosses.

It is true that some movement on UJ crosses can be caused across the board on major buying and selling of one cross pair (and the corresponding specific buying/selling of UJ), but such instances require an extreme amount of volume, are not the cause of most movements and can be more easily seen by looking at UJ in isolation anyway. In the long term the value of any general cross analysis is always negated by the specific requirements and pressures of each correlating pair.

Good luck in your continued learning.
Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
  • #81,867
  • May 17, 2008 11:54pm May 17, 2008 11:54pm
I dont know about XE, last night GY was 203.27, but this morning 202.83

http://www.tenfore.com/markets.asp?symbol=GBPJPYLITEx

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-115.png
  • #81,868
  • May 18, 2008 12:06am May 18, 2008 12:06am
Quoting Piters
I dont know about XE, last night GY was 203.27, but this morning 202.83

http://www.tenfore.com/markets.asp?symbol=GBPJPYLITEx

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-115.png
Anybody has any idea if this site is accurate real time? It does say at the bottom of the quotes that "All Data Delayed". Oanda doesn't show any weekend movements for all pairs.
Expected the unexpected
  • #81,869
  • May 18, 2008 12:12am May 18, 2008 12:12am
forex-markets.com/ use them as a Data Feed...

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
  • #81,870
  • Edited 2:35am May 18, 2008 1:20am | Edited 2:35am
Now 203.27

http://www.doske.com/Charts/snapshot-116.png
  • #81,871
  • May 18, 2008 2:42am May 18, 2008 2:42am
"Clouds again i think you slightly misunderstand the nature of the JPY crosses; they dont follow each other as a rule" Yes they do!
  • #81,872
  • Edited 3:14am May 18, 2008 3:04am | Edited 3:14am
Read the rest of my post Clouds. The crosses follow each other in as much as they both rely on UJ. Thats all. Heres some charts of the last year for you for instance if you still doubt this.

How is a 2000 pip range the same as a 6000 pip fall?

EJ has been stuck in a range because E/U and U/J are pushing in opposite directions in the long term. GJ has fallen so hard because G/U and U/J have both fallen overall.

I am trying to help before you lose money based on false assumptions.
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Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
  • #81,873
  • May 18, 2008 4:41am May 18, 2008 4:41am
Quoting Putto
Clouds again i think you slightly misunderstand the nature of the JPY crosses; they dont follow each other as a rule and and do not provide leading indicators. GJ = UJ x GU and EJ = UJ x EU etc etc. As UJ movement is priced in simultaneously on each cross (by the nature of the currencies there is no discernable lag or there would be bet the house arbitrage), the only way you could POSSIBLY theorize that GJ follows EJ is that GU follows EU around like a puppy reacting the same but at a slower pace, to market pressure. This is obviously not the case. Even where they (GU and EU) are similar (ie with US dollar buying/selling) they move from this pressure at the same time AND to variable extents according to the strength of the counter currency.

Where GU and EU are moving in opposite directions (HINT FOR EG SEE THE LAST SIX MONTHS) they ARENT even going to end up mirroring each other in the mid and long term, let alone be leading indicators. They only correlate when E/U and G/U movement is dictated by US buying/selling. They WILL differentiate according to EU and GU demand- it is pointless and potentially dangerous to trade one (ie GJ) based on the other (ie EJ). They are different beasts based on different variables. Open up a daily, weekly or monthly chart and you will see this.

They appear similar when both are being driven by UJ- but you will see over time that this is not always the case and the other pair is equally likely to be in control.

Also you should know in terms of GJ, that UJ, because of its value, is twice as impactful as GU (ie one pip in UJ = 2 pips GJ and one pip GU = one pip GJ movement). However on EJ it is closer to 1.5 pips for UJ movement and 1 pip for EU movement. This further complicates any attempted general cross analysis as movement in the base pairs have differing effects on the respective crosses.

It is true that some movement on UJ crosses can be caused across the board on major buying and selling of one cross pair (and the corresponding specific buying/selling of UJ), but such instances require an extreme amount of volume, are not the cause of most movements and can be more easily seen by looking at UJ in isolation anyway. In the long term the value of any general cross analysis is always negated by the specific requirements and pressures of each correlating pair.

Good luck in your continued learning.
A great explaination - I was just thinking of doing a similar one - although less detailed http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #81,874
  • May 18, 2008 5:23am May 18, 2008 5:23am
i'm not sure why, but i had some interest (after the good ole fella 251) about the relationship between oil prices and GJ. if u take a look at the following chart, u will notice that when oil reaches any of the drawn fibo levels and extensions the price falls back to retest the prior level. however when oil gets NEAR the next extension, GJ makes its MOVE, 600-2000 pips. some good weekly candle examples are july 29, november 4th, december 30, feb 17th - march 16th. and now the current weekly oil candle is at 261 fibo extension.

don't u guys find it "weird" or at least interesting?

conclusion: i'm expecting my crapper to go in "ultimate mode" soon. and i'm really expecting oil to go back to 97-105$ a barrel by the end of this month or mid next month. any comments?

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  • #81,875
  • May 18, 2008 5:35am May 18, 2008 5:35am
correction, i mentioned it to someone who asked about oil earlier. oil should go back to 105-109 area first (which i recommended to buy at 110) then should go back to retest 126-127 area again, if breached, say hello to 145-150 bucks a barrel (i guess that should be 5-6$ a gallon of gas in the US) congrats!

ps: fill up all ur tanks when oil is at 110 a barrel
and enjoy it while u can

Quoting lilmoe
i'm not sure why, but i had some interest (after the good ole fella 251) about the relationship between oil prices and GJ. if u take a look at the following chart, u will notice that when oil reaches any of the drawn fibo levels and extensions the price falls back to retest the prior level. however when oil gets NEAR the next extension, GJ makes its MOVE, 600-2000 pips. some good weekly candle examples are july 29, november 4th, december 30, feb 17th - march 16th. and now the current weekly oil candle is at 261 fibo extension.

don't u guys find it "weird" or at least interesting?

conclusion: i'm expecting my crapper to go in "ultimate mode" soon. and i'm really expecting oil to go back to 97-105$ a barrel by the end of this month or mid next month. any comments?

Attachment
  • #81,876
  • May 18, 2008 5:41am May 18, 2008 5:41am
Quoting lilmoe
correction, i mentioned it to someone who asked about oil earlier. oil should go back to 105-109 area first (which i recommended to buy at 110) then should go back to retest 126-127 area again, if breached, say hello to 145-150 bucks a barrel (i guess that should be 5-6$ a gallon of gas in the US) congrats!

ps: fill up all ur tanks when oil is at 110 a barrel
and enjoy it while u can
Hey Lilmoe

This looks interesting! You may also want to look into the inverse relationship that oil has had historically with the Dow - and of course the direct relationship UJ sometimes has with the Dow (and by extension inverse with oil).

Have fun!
Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
  • #81,877
  • May 18, 2008 7:30am May 18, 2008 7:30am
hi putto

i'm actually not finding any "significant" relationship between dow and oil, so if u could point it out more clearly plz?

however on EJ, yes it has a very good relationship with GJ, but not the same pattern. i'm seeing a huge symmetrical triangle formation on EJ. and if u want to go by the rules, EJ is extremely bearish and should retest the lower TL by next week or the week after. there's also a huge inside bar (latest weekly candle) which i'm pretty sure it should head south from there. however, if the upmove should continue, then i would suggest a 123 (ABC) pattern on a fib expansion with first resistance being at 165.24 and ultimate destination of 171.87 on the longer run.

however, since 78.6 (yellow fibo retracement) was pierced through (with lower TL in confluence with that level) and price successfully reached 23.6 fib, AND price respected upper TL resistance which was actually in another confluence with 23.6, i would suggest bearish reversal to 78.6 again and from there down to 150 (FE 100) area.

i've noted some major longterm resistance and support areas. check them out.

plz show me ur comments

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Quoting Putto
Hey Lilmoe

This looks interesting! You may also want to look into the inverse relationship that oil has had historically with the Dow - and of course the direct relationship UJ sometimes has with the Dow (and by extension inverse with oil).

Have fun!
  • #81,878
  • Edited 8:54am May 18, 2008 8:08am | Edited 8:54am
for all BEARS with open SHORT positions (I am one of them )

Rates:

XE 203.518
forex-market 203.27
fxstreet 203.49

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
http://www.tenfore.com/markets.asp?symbol=GBPJPYLITEx
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-rates/
http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi
  • #81,879
  • May 18, 2008 8:36am May 18, 2008 8:36am
Quoting Piters
for all BEARS with open SHORT positions (I am one of them )

Rates:

XE 203.518
forex-market 203.27

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
http://www.tenfore.com/markets.asp?symbol=GBPJPYLITEx
http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi
Do you have an account with any of these companies? I can't get forex-markets.com to show rates. It keeps saying "wait". I am just not sure about the other two, whether they are actually real-time quotes during the weekend.

Anybody has a better understanding?
Expected the unexpected
  • #81,880
  • May 18, 2008 8:46am May 18, 2008 8:46am
Quoting scyang
Do you have an account with any of these companies? I can't get forex-markets.com to show rates. It keeps saying "wait". I am just not sure about the other two, whether they are actually real-time quotes during the weekend.

Anybody has a better understanding?
I sometimes reference to www.fxstreet.com for week-end price, which is showing reasonably accurate. Click on their "Rates & Charts" >> "Live Currency Rates".
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