Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 135 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,681
  • May 16, 2008 4:05am May 16, 2008 4:05am
Quoting fti

Was young then and F5Es were just coming in.

regards



On pipes..... I have the same problem. Replace the habit with something else. When the urge came up, I immediately try to do something else to stop thinking about it. The key is the awareness to know that you have the urge and then replace it with something else. Once its out of the mind the urge will go away as well. Keep yourself busy to replace the habit.

Works for me....almost anyway. Can't help myself though when I have the occasion alcohol. It goes hand in hand...
  • #2,682
  • May 16, 2008 4:38am May 16, 2008 4:38am
Quoting sitoca



On pipes..... I have the same problem. Replace the habit with something else. When the urge came up, I immediately try to do something else to stop thinking about it. The key is the awareness to know that you have the urge and then replace it with something else. Once its out of the mind the urge will go away as well. Keep yourself busy to replace the habit.

Works for me....almost anyway. Can't help myself though when I have the occasion alcohol. It goes hand in hand...
Hi sitoca,

no offense taken, Had been on the chews, patch, titbits.
Somehow when the fights gets interesting , hand reaches out for the fix.
Had been on and off the wagon.

Discipline problem mostly, (the more discipline , the harder head , I guess) Problem is that this was the fix during hard times, seems like a friend. Anyways, my grandpa (motherside), he's a rubber farmer, fit as a fiddle, still with us and hitting 100 years soon. Doesn't do the bottle nor smokes. But when I look at his quality of life , am quite sad. My dad's shares the same bad habits I have, he went home in his mid 70's. Didn't suffer long, although had some inconveniences though. So as a matter of fact , If I can hit mid 70's , would be much glad. Having the diabetic gene doesn't help though nevertheless I stay optimistic. LOL.

regards
  • #2,683
  • May 16, 2008 4:39am May 16, 2008 4:39am
Advice on how to stop smoking from someone who has not stopped is not very useful I think.

However, I was a smoker for about 17 years and my wife a little longer. After reading a book we both stopped and have not picked one up since. It has been about 5 years now.

Also, I recommended the book to my friend who was a heavy smoker and he stopped after reading it. His mother, who is not very good with English also read it (her first English book) and stopped (after smoking for around 30 years).

Now I have not felt any better since stopping and all I can say is if anyone has the desire, you only have to read this book. It encourages you to keep smoking while reading it and when finished, you have two choices - continue to smoke or stop so it's not like you have anything to lose. You can only gain.

Anyway, the book is called "Easyway to stop smoking" by Allen Carr.

I must admit that I have a deep concern for fti's health so I emailed him the book and will purchase it (for him) if he decides to read it. It was my present to him for the effort he has put into this thread.

Slight hangover today.
  • #2,684
  • May 16, 2008 4:46am May 16, 2008 4:46am
Quoting Zoran
Advice on how to stop smoking from someone who has not stopped is not very useful I think.

However, I was a smoker for about 17 years and my wife a little longer. After reading a book we both stopped and have not picked one up since. It has been about 5 years now.

Also, I recommended the book to my friend who was a heavy smoker and he stopped after reading it. His mother, who is not very good with English also read it (her first English book) and stopped (after smoking for around 30 years).

Now I have not felt any better since stopping and all I can say is if anyone has the desire, you only have to read this book. It encourages you to keep smoking while reading it and when finished, you have two choices - continue to smoke or stop so it's not like you have anything to lose. You can only gain.

Anyway, the book is called "Easyway to stop smoking" by Allen Carr.

I must admit that I have a deep concern for fti's health so I emailed him the book and will purchase it (for him) if he decides to read it. It was my present to him for the effort he has put into this thread.

Slight hangover today.
Hi Zoran,
Thanks vv much, I had peruse the ebook you gave on smoking, at the end of the day, Its I that have to decide to put the old friend to rest. Lets see. Still hard to put down, light wiskey, smokes and masterful music. The scorpion in me.
For your hangover , I recommend that you go get the bottle out and throw in a gulp , nothing works like poison on poison.

regards

This markets are getting to be a pain isn't it. Hard to get too much pips on. still dragging its feet.LOL many crosses still dominating play. Patience , the virtue.
  • #2,685
  • May 16, 2008 4:55am May 16, 2008 4:55am
Quoting fti
Hi sitoca,

no offense taken, Had been on the chews, patch, titbits.
Somehow when the fights gets interesting , hand reaches out for the fix.
Had been on and off the wagon.

Discipline problem mostly, (the more discipline , the harder head , I guess) Problem is that this was the fix during hard times, seems like a friend. regards
Does anyone seriously know someone who has stopped with gum, patches, etc... and has not started again? It doesn't work and I can tell you that from first hand (as it tends only to be temporary). People tend to start for the same reasons they always have.

We have come to this thread and are guided by a master and have had great insight into the world of successful trading but we are aware of the fallacy. There is also a fallacy about smoking and that book explains it very well.

We can ignore the trading fallacy and continue using triggers in our trading but will likely fail miserably. The same goes for smoking, ignore the fallacy and you'll continue to believe it.

Here is a message from fti to fti:

Think about the things that you created.
Think about all the things that mankind has created.
Think about the ever changing cages that it has created to box itself in.

So that's about it.

fti, are you saying that you have read the whole book? From cover to cover? Please confirm.
  • #2,686
  • Edited 5:24am May 16, 2008 5:10am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting Zoran
Does anyone seriously know someone who has stopped with gum, patches, etc... and has not started again? It doesn't work and I can tell you that from first hand (as it tends only to be temporary). People tend to start for the same reasons they always have.

We have come to this thread and are guided by a master and have had great insight into the world of successful trading but we are aware of the fallacy. There is also a fallacy about smoking and that book explains it very well.

We can ignore the trading fallacy and continue using triggers in our trading but will likely fail miserably. The same goes for smoking, ignore the fallacy and you'll continue to believe it.

Here is a message from fti to fti:

Think about the things that you created.
Think about all the things that mankind has created.
Think about the ever changing cages that it has created to box itself in.

So that's about it.

fti, are you saying that you have read the whole book? From cover to cover? Please confirm.
Hi Zoran,
Sorry my bad, I did, like many here, glanced into, then Oh, I see that, I know that already, sort of attitute. You see, life is winding down a lot for me, slowing down too much, and these vices had become like the last strings I am hanging on to , that, may resemble anything close to what life was like for a long time.

I try to whip myself a bit and reading finish the book you gave, but I guess I am a hard head too. Losing lifeways scares me more than losing life. And like many, I guess I cannot change much, hanging on to the same old ways. Difficult, for old dogs to learn new tricks, huh. Imperfection, the mysteries of life.

Lets see If I can find new hobbies to replace the bad habits. Gotta find new hobbies! Thats the reason why I am listening to my young boy collection, now that just prompted me to take out my eartha kitt collection! LOL, the cabaret days.

regards

On the market front, I am listening closely to the ground, its coiling again for somebiggie event. And am trying to stay unengaged, lest I be caught when the big waves catch me pants down.
  • #2,687
  • May 16, 2008 5:44am May 16, 2008 5:44am
Sorry fti, I'm not giving up that easily. If I can give you at least 10 extra years of an even better life without the stick then I'll do my best.

I couldn't image going back now because my quality of life has improved significantly and I have not felt better.

Like I said, it's a book. You continue in your ways and read it (all of it). It's only a book and you have nothing to lose. That's why I asked this thread to send you the right vibes because I know you're a hard nut to crack. But it can be done!

Imagine the causal observer of this thread who is an indicator type trader and thinks he knows what's going on but is still using the indicators as triggers? Yes, some things seem hard to understand until only a little bit of effort is needed to truely understand it.

It's just a book and it doesn't take long to read.

Time to send out the vibes everyone. fti has a scorpion that needs to be squashed.

Edit: email me an address and I'll buy you an original.
  • #2,688
  • May 16, 2008 5:55am May 16, 2008 5:55am
Quoting fti

On the market front, I am listening closely to the ground, its coiling again for somebiggie event. And am trying to stay unengaged, lest I be caught when the big waves catch me pants down.
@fti

Confession time for me i suppose. You asked how my dance was going and I haven't responded because i too slipped up. You guess right when you think ego was involved. In second week of april I had doubled my account equity measured from January and was feeling pretty invincible. While helping my daughter with history homework, i glanced quickly at the chart and entered a badly timed trade. I sent first rescue party out and then the electricity went out. Three hours later the power came back on, but my ISP had a problem so I still had no internet connection. I finally managed to get back online six hours later. By then I was in serious drawdown and didn't want to close the trade.

I still am in the trade (about 1000 pips down in total), luckily it was only a small lot that I had bought, but am still too stubborn to close it, even though i can acknowledge that it was a really stupid trade.

@gene22
Nice to see you on the thread again. I was worried about you as last we heard from you, you were in hospital.

@Zoran
You are totally correct on the smoking thing. I have given up so many times (longest was 5 years) and then started again. Think the reason is that I really still enjoy the habit.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #2,689
  • May 16, 2008 6:24am May 16, 2008 6:24am
OK, since it's confession time. Here are some of mine:

1. I am still having difficulties accepting a loss. I feel that I am invincible so I do get the occasional slap. What tends to happen is that my skews are not large enough during the rescue to exit with a small profit - and I know it but there is a little fear in exposing myself. I suspect I can overcome this by planning my rescues properly.

2. I was practicing on small underfunded accounts and did not have the necessary troops to perform proper rescues. Those accounts, unsurprisingly, are now dead. I now have a properly funded account with 10,000 troops, which makes me feel a lot more comfortable.

Otherwise, it seems to go well for a while but I need to learn to bite the bullet. I was up the other night in a rescue mission that would have worked well if I hadn't fallen asleep. I am not in a position to stay up for a day to rescue so I eventually closed it for a loss, wiping out a week's worth of trades.

DutchAngel, read the book and then you'll understand why. I really cannot say more than that.
  • #2,690
  • May 16, 2008 6:35am May 16, 2008 6:35am
Quoting DutchAngel
@fti

Confession time for me i suppose. You asked how my dance was going and I haven't responded because i too slipped up. You guess right when you think ego was involved. In second week of april I had doubled my account equity measured from January and was feeling pretty invincible. While helping my daughter with history homework, i glanced quickly at the chart and entered a badly timed trade. I sent first rescue party out and then the electricity went out. Three hours later the power came back on, but my ISP had a problem so I still had no internet connection. I finally managed to get back online six hours later. By then I was in serious drawdown and didn't want to close the trade.
>>>that is one of my biggest fear. We have 4 computers in the house, but only an internet connection...

I still am in the trade (about 1000 pips down in total), luckily it was only a small lot that I had bought, but am still too stubborn to close it, even though i can acknowledge that it was a really stupid trade.
>>>so you do not want to lose? Scorpion? ha...

@gene22
Nice to see you on the thread again. I was worried about you as last we heard from you, you were in hospital.

@Zoran
You are totally correct on the smoking thing. I have given up so many times (longest was 5 years) and then started again. Think the reason is that I really still enjoy the habit.
Since I had -no anymore?!- the same feeling on invinsibility...I wonder if trading alone is not a good idea...we need others to keep an eye on us and remind us to be humble...I think fti has a trading partner...

On smoking...I did smoke several cigarretes in my life...maybe 20 or 30...I could not understand why people smoke, I tested and I found nothing... I stopped before developing the habit...I got lucky....
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,691
  • May 16, 2008 6:40am May 16, 2008 6:40am
let's talk attack.

you put your scout in on eurusd with a sell limit order just one pip below the todays high.. it executes, goes +55. ok, i was at lunch and pulled the plug when i got back as I had no analysis, no targets, was just a small scout.

we have talked a lot about rescues but little about attack. this little +55 is some sort of base/armor for further troops to enter at later points (i prefer limit orders, best for discipline :>). but maybe swift attack is the better/safer way to go..

so comments on adding to position, anyone?

if we are talking from health perspective, then swift, small, short trades keeps the mind healthy and the body rested.

PS - nothing is simpler than to quit smoking, I do it every day.
  • #2,692
  • May 16, 2008 6:54am May 16, 2008 6:54am
Quoting leighsww
Good for you, to be starting this at such a young age. Not many young people just out of high school even think or know about stuff like this.

Like mikeyshaun said, many of us would have loved to have started this forex business back when we were much younger. Just think where we'd be today if we learned fti's method and MM back then.

I noticed you mentioned "2nd live account" in your latest post, so I'm assuming that you didn't do so well with your first account? Were you trading your first account using fti's method and MM? If you were, you might want to post what happened, and maybe fti can help you determine what may have gone wrong and how you can better your skills, etc.

Hopefully, you will have better success with this 2nd account. Keep us posted.
Thanks for writing. In reguards to my first account i was not using fti method and was going through my indicator phase. Since i have started fti method i have had a very good return rate for the most part but still have some flaws. (im trading demo right now)
  • #2,693
  • Edited 7:07am May 16, 2008 6:56am | Edited 7:07am
Hi All,
Dutchangel,
oops, seems cannot be dancing already.

One lesson, if your market access, is lost due to acts of god, call in and get out, can't dance in the dark, however good dancer. Now you probably lost rhythm and mindset. However you try, its hard. To save that baby, you will have to commit huge resources and will probably not be dancing close to market. So seems you have a hard decision ahead, You gotta risk huge to save that baby, if you wanna come out intact. So if the pain is not leathal, bite the bullet, if you must. Then start all over again to built the ant hill. You done it before you can do it again. Now you should be a little wiser to the risk.
The problem was small exposure , thats why you let it slip from you, had it been large, you probably would have done the necessary. However if you think that you can afford the resources to save this baby, be prepared for a death match. But remember , you must dance. And watch the skew, ease off , and don't try to get it all back in one go. rebuiltd the rhythm, just get back enough pips to feel confidence and dance the rhythm.
It seems that the market has lost impluse thrust, so try to get back from signs it gives. Do not think from position, think from market signs. This is vv important. Do not think from position.

If you can afford the lost , bite the bullet, get the book squared and rebuild. This is the best way, to recover. Do not sit on hope, thats what got you into trouble after the access lost, in the first place.
Give it careful thought, your decision is critical now. Finding the rhythm may be a little difficult. The more you can think, without the position bias creeping in, the faster the recovery. You have to find a way to rid the feelings before attempting to tame the market again. Talk to someone close. Is there any traders in your family,seek second opinion on your frame of mind.

Otherwise , if you are mindset tough, go into death match mindset, and fight your way out, make sure the financials are sufficient, the snowballing will get scary, so think carefully. Consider your financial position if rescue fails. If rescue improves the postion do it, once you do not feel it improving, then your mindset is not in sync, you must then cut loose and take the pain.

Let us know your frame of mind.

Reminder 10 big fig out of court is deep "dead in the water" situation.

regards

Are you prepared to do death match? evaluate your financials.
Were you prepared for this, if you are then you can fight.
Otherwise "Run away , fight another day to rebuild."
I know you will have the "murphy ghosts" distrubing you.
All the what if questions.
Pay them no attention, you have to evaluate your status.
Decide to do what you have to do.
Put it in action, No regrets what ever the outcome.
It s just battle decisions.
  • #2,694
  • May 16, 2008 6:58am May 16, 2008 6:58am
Quoting fti
Hi M-H Trader,

In a nut shell, I stated after Junior college , as a kadet in military flight school,
but was clipped during jet conversion. Left that behind and took up a low pay job in futures broking, until I was discovered by my mentor in a bank. Since then I have sored high in the trading arena until retirement recently. Of course as in life, there were highs and lows.

Something like the story below I guess.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIgv4Pkwdec

regards
Thanks for the insight.
  • #2,695
  • May 16, 2008 7:49am May 16, 2008 7:49am
fti

You are very correct in your summation below. Thank you for taking the time to give me you advice and also for not giving me a whipping. Already gave myself one. lol

Quoting fti
Hi All,
Dutchangel,
oops, seems cannot be dancing already.

One lesson, if your market access, is lost due to acts of god, call in and get out, can't dance in the dark, however good dancer.
This lesson I will never forget.

Quoting fti
The problem was small exposure , thats why you let it slip from you, had it been large, you probably would have done the necessary. However if you think that you can afford the resources to save this baby, be prepared for a death match. But remember , you must dance. And watch the skew, ease off , and don't try to get it all back in one go. rebuiltd the rhythm, just get back enough pips to feel confidence and dance the rhythm.
You are right here. If i was over exposed i would have called my broker immediately, but i felt safe so i let it go. I know i cannot rescue this position in one battle, so i have been fighting small battles, taking 30 pips here and there. My thinking is that even tho its ants work, i am still building the account by banking profits and if i can continue to do this long enough, the loss i am carrying will start to pale as the account keeps growing.
Quoting fti
It seems that the market has lost impluse thrust, so try to get back from signs it gives. Do not think from position, think from market signs. This is vv important. Do not think from position.
I think i am doing this. I am not focusing on position right now, rather I am looking at fresh opportunities to build equity slowly and carefully.

Quoting fti
If you can afford the lost , bite the bullet, get the book squared and rebuild. This is the best way, to recover. Do not sit on hope, thats what got you into trouble after the access lost, in the first place.
Give it careful thought, your decision is critical now. Finding the rhythm may be a little difficult. The more you can think, without the position bias creeping in, the faster the recovery. You have to find a way to rid the feelings before attempting to tame the market again. Talk to someone close. Is there any traders in your family,seek second opinion on your frame of mind.
Financially i can afford the loss and I think i resigned myself to the loss emotionally a while back. Thats why i am not stressed about the position anymore. However, luSan is correct in that my scorpion is stubborness (i prefer to call it determination) so i would like to attempt to stay the course with this trade. My husband trades part time and he agrees with me here.

Quoting fti
Otherwise , if you are mindset tough, go into death match mindset, and fight your way out, make sure the financials are sufficient, the snowballing will get scary, so think carefully. Consider your financial position if rescue fails. If rescue improves the postion do it, once you do not feel it improving, then your mindset is not in sync, you must then cut loose and take the pain.
I will only launch a full scale rescue when the market gives me the green light. Right now it would still be suicide for me to start snowballing this position. I must bide my time.

Quoting fti
Let us know your frame of mind.
Initially i was shocked to discover the drawdown. I caught huge amount of stress. Right now i am quite content. I can deal with the loss but i wont give up without a fight. If I lose, well i tried and learnt a huge lesson, if i win, i tried, learnt a huge lesson and survived.

@Zoran
Thanks. Have read the first 17 pages already.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #2,696
  • May 16, 2008 7:59am May 16, 2008 7:59am
Hi Dutchangel,

OK, now I understand.
You are a good trader.
What you are doing is GOOD.
You have strong character. Focus now on how you would like to handle the situation. I believe you are on the driver seat, just listen to yourself.

"Financially i can afford the loss and I think i resigned myself to the loss emotionally a while back."
This is masterful mindset, kudos to you.

Steady as she goes.

regards.
  • #2,697
  • Edited 8:48am May 16, 2008 8:27am | Edited 8:48am
Hi All,

USD strength seems developing, trying to timing into window.
Staying light footed and nimble. 3 kingdom intact strong USD.
Just trying. no strong impluses convictions yet.
Still looking for more signs.

regards

oops losing the window, reset to wait again.
The sweeps are both directions and vv deep,
Have feeling that the impluse is not this week,
with far east out on monday , dueto wesak day.
follow trhu may not be there.
Now just watching for window, which is not expected to come,
nevertheless, the task is to follow to see if can find it.
and back to musical escapade.LOL
  • #2,698
  • May 16, 2008 8:46am May 16, 2008 8:46am
Quoting fti
oops losing the window, reset to wait again.
Hey, fti, are you becoming 1 minute time frame addict, like me?

That's one of my worst enemies, I think...
  • #2,699
  • May 16, 2008 8:59am May 16, 2008 8:59am
Hi Jairo,
Thats not true.
Have been out of market for a time.
I gotta feel my way back for the rhythm,
Problem is market is in wide sideways sweeps and i am trying to flow into trend which is not there.
Under normal dance, I would be trying into the swings, butnot until I get into the market form.
So I will look like cow singing to the moon, until I get into mkt form.
Not making , 1 minute sequences.
Reading 5 min building of form and trying to seek window of form, which for the moment is doing both ways yet.
Dailys are non indicative, and short charts are doing the chicken(borrowed from leighsww)

regards
  • #2,700
  • May 16, 2008 10:29am May 16, 2008 10:29am
Quoting fti
Hi Jairo,
Thats not true.
Have been out of market for a time.
I gotta feel my way back for the rhythm,
Problem is market is in wide sideways sweeps and i am trying to flow into trend which is not there.
Under normal dance, I would be trying into the swings, butnot until I get into the market form.
So I will look like cow singing to the moon, until I get into mkt form.
Not making , 1 minute sequences.
Reading 5 min building of form and trying to seek window of form, which for the moment is doing both ways yet.
Dailys are non indicative, and short charts are doing the chicken(borrowed from leighsww)

regards
oil.. Goldman released a report, they probably were long..
102 traders viewing now