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Perplexed - year spent looking for system

  • #101
  • May 14, 2008 7:38am May 14, 2008 7:38am
Borel's Law ring any bells?
  • #102
  • May 14, 2008 7:49am May 14, 2008 7:49am
Quoting soultrader
please, not a nutcase bible basher.

doesn't believe in randomness but believes in some fictitious entity sat on a cloud.

give me strength
  • #103
  • May 14, 2008 8:00am May 14, 2008 8:00am
Quote
putto, my answer to "is the dollar weakening random?" is a resounding YES! could you have predicted that the dollar was going to drop in 2001? NO!

That's only partially true really. The strength of a currency is based on a number of basic fundamentals, budget deficit, trade deficit, interest rates, fed policies and economic policies being the most important. George Soros's book "The Alchemy of Finance" goes into this in depth, and his model does work pretty well (not 100% obviously) on the larger timeframes.

Of course that doesn't help much when placing a trade. Most of us don't have the luxury of trading on the monthly TF or running with a 1000 pip stop loss. But what it does tell us is that placing trades against the fundamentals is dangerous if we aren't paying close attention to our exits.

Quote
as for your point about interest rates, unemployment rates, etc.... a very good argument on your behalf, by the way.... but i will counter-argue and say that forex is EXTREMELY EFFICIENT.... that price stabilizes to where it "should be" after news within a minute or two, without any lag.....

Except cycles don't change instantly. If the fed raises interest rates in the US it will cause a chain reaction of events that will lead to a systematic strengthening of the dollar over time. Each event will be overpriced-in before it occurs, over-correct after it happens, then re-correct over time. It's a systematic response, not a linear one, one element of the system effects the dynamic, which effects other elements, which in turn projects more effects outward, over and over, recursively.

Quote
lets see if there is a greater than 1/1024 chance of getting it right.

The market is not random. It's a complex fractal, lower TFs going one direction, higher TFs going another, the net result is confusing and complicated... it appears random, but it certainly isn't. This is why 2 people can take exactly opposite positions and both turn a profit, or both lose. No one can tell you what the next X bars will be, but it's not hard to know with a high degree of probability what the net result will be after X bars given the right conditions.

The best analogy I can give is a simple conditional probability experiment. What is the probability of rolling a 6 on 2 dice rolls? 1 in 6 on each, right? So 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. Super simple, right? But what is the probability of rolling a 6 on 2 dice given that the first dice roll is a 3? 0%, it's not possible. What is the probability of rolling a 6 on 2 dice given the first dice is a 6? 1 in 6, 1/6.

The markets operate in a conditional probability environment. If you wait for the first dice to roll, then only "trade" when the first dice is showing a 6 you have increased your odds from 1/36 to 1/6. As long as your payback is greater than 6:1, you'll profit over time.

This gives us the old cliche: Let your profits run and cut your losses short. Most systems fail to work because they either fail to provide sufficient odds (which need not be >50%), they fail to allow profits to compound or fail to mitigate loss. The first is trivially easy, the latter 2 are usually ignored in "the quest for the holy grail."
  • #104
  • May 14, 2008 8:50am May 14, 2008 8:50am
Quoting Rabid
No one can tell you what the next X bars will be, but it's not hard to know with a high degree of probability what the net result will be after X bars given the right conditions.
i dont understand this - can anyone tell what the next x bars will be or can't they? - your statement says 'no one can' and then says 'its not hard' which is it? - if you can predict the next 4 one hour bars will end up net long then you can predict a single 4 hour candle will go long. the challenge was to make the prediction before the close of any four hour candle - they don't have to be consecutive on the chart.

dice are fixed in their variables - the market is not. you could go long a currency to be the victim of a 50 pip stop only for your 'prediction' to be right as the price ascends again. with dice they land on six and stay there - forex lands on six, changes to a 2, has a minute on 4 and goes back to a six again. it's more often not the trade direction that kills a trader - it's the market wobble as it moves in a direction that shakes em out and the wobble is in my opinion random.

there's an old saying - if you are right at the wrong time then youre wrong.

this is where underfunding comes in. any idiot can look at a weekly chart or a daily chart and see the trend - but it's being able to get in and survive the wobble as it goes that way which determines the winners whilst at the same time managing the risk of the trend turning as you enter.

Buffet suffered a 4000 pip drawdown when he shorted the dollar in 05 only for his trade to make lots of money in the end. he has the money to ride a wobble storm like that. in general most traders do not - they try to take trends with 30 pip stops because they can't mentally or physically afford any more.

im not immune from this either - I have a wage to earn and cant sit with a trade for two months waiting for it to come good, my money is better off invested somewhere it would stand a better chance.

the only thing i think i can add to this, bearing in mind the title of the thread is this.. There are a few magic systems, but the chances of finding them are very slim. you can spend your time chasing the chance of finding one, or you can learn to manage the risks associated with trading without a magic system where the entry does not matter as long as you manage the winners and cosset them hilst ditching the bad ones quickly - that's all that matters in forex. Not the magic entry or the magic exit - its plonking on some trades and managing the good ones well. if you have a pinch of luck (which we all have) you'll make money.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #105
  • May 14, 2008 9:03am May 14, 2008 9:03am
What let trading possibily profitable, is that market is random (maybe it have his own 100% rule, but because nobody know them, we just call it random, ok), price can jump of 200 pips in 3-5-10 hours, and nobody can predict it..
But, in these 3-5-10 hours (or maybe 10 days, no matter), every one can see the price going up, slowly, and everyone have the ability to jump in with a long position, and profit from that move (unpredictable-random, but u still see it while forming, it take hours (days?) to arrive at his target, and nobody can stop you to enter the trade).
You can not predict the next bar, but you can see that the last 10bars was bearish, and you can see from the chart that usually market move with a series of 50 bearish bar (for example), so you can jump in hoping that the bearish move will continue for another 40 bars, no gaurantees, but in trading gaurantees doesn't exist.
  • #106
  • May 14, 2008 9:42am May 14, 2008 9:42am
Quoting soultrader

there's an old saying - if you are right at the wrong time then youre wrong.


What is the big deal? Assume that the market IS IRRATIONAL and moves randomly. If the market were logical, the all we had to do is going long NZD/JPY (huge interest difference, great swaps....) and come back one year later to pick the profit. But interest rates itself desn't move anthing at this market. Have the macro economic in US changed for real? Nope. (IMHO). So why the hell the the USD is gong north for some weeks? Some "good" news? Not enough to me. They are too noisy to tell me that at this exact moment the CBs big guys are thinking "Ok, I guess it's time to fill our pockets with the green again..."

We trade expectations,not currencies. And a CB's big boss expectations can be so different of the economic scenario... But based on their expectations, and on their need to protect their own country's economy, they can move zillions at one time, making the market move along. We just stay at our monitors screaming "What the hell, this was not supposed to move that way! Stop you muthaf#%&@r!"... But Mr Market (or Mr Trichet, or Mr Bernanke can't hear you, sorry...) and it keeps moving... So, the best thing to do is assume that, even "thinking" right, Mr. Market said that you were wrong. Cut you loosing position, take a deep breath (and a Vicodin, just kidding) and go to the next try.

Just my 2 cents...
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #107
  • May 14, 2008 12:33pm May 14, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting soultrader
im sorry James, but the experience oif someone who lives off the $200 a month of other traders isnt worth much to me. No disrespect meant as i'm sure you are a nice guy and there's plenty of money to be made from other traders. But i trade every day real size in these markets and that's the experience im using - your answer was rather patronising.

not to ruffle feathers of course.

question - if that was an 'almost 100% certainty' trade how many hundreds of lots did you have riding on it? did you re-mortgage the house when you saw it? if it was a large trade can we see?, did you call it in your room / site? and if no to any of these why not?

You can show rejection bars all day long and for every one that you show i can find one that didnt work. Hindsight is a wonderful trading system and rejection bars are far away from 100% sure thing - to suggest they are is ridiculous.

However, on saying that I do use rejection bars and support and resistance in my trading, just because i do does not mean that luck does not play a large part. anyone who says otherwise must believe in prediction and we all know where that leads.

rejection bars have the ability to keep losers small and if you've any sense you'll just follow em upwards / Downwards and not have a target. you never know where they'll go and if they don't then you'll still take some pie. Ive even written code the autotrade the things so i'm not saying they are useless. But they do lose and often.

No-one takes a trade thinking 'man i hope i'm lucky' of course (well, not often ), but it doesnt matter how you approach it, sometimes you're the hunter an sometimes the Fox. everything else is just invented in the traders mind - like the craps players who believe they can influence the way the dice fall by how hard they blow and throw.

when talking support and resistance - remember support isnt support until it's held and resistance aint resistance till it's rejected - until then it's potential and even then how far till it really is support and not just a breather? 10 pips? 20? 50?

my rules are like this - don't need a chart - if its going up buy, if its going down sell. if it keeps going up - keep buying etc etc - you get the idea right?

lady luck plays a big part - ask John Henry or Ed Seykota if it does - they'll tell you that if they are lucky enough to tag into the trend then they'll milk that luck as much as they can.

Don't take my word for it - just ask the masters.
Have you even read the James16 Chart Thread? Have you applied Price Action on any of your trades?
I think you need to at the very least read a little about what you protest so much. But I have a feeling that won't change your mind either.
Sorry I wasted your time.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #108
  • May 14, 2008 1:32pm May 14, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting tdion
well, actually, i know the "structure" you speak of....

it goes like this....

news is released.... central bankers react....

news is released.... central bankers react....

clear?

the randomness comes from several bankers reacting in different ways that best suite their own countries economies.

the only half-way predictable method is straddling before news releases, and canceling the order that isn't hit.
So are you sitting and observing these trades by Central Bankers? You must, because that is what you are saying. This is a truly ignorant statement.

Let me ask you this: Do you really think that the Fed doesn't have a heads up on it's own reports? they "trade the news" ahead of time.

It's like saying that I know the EUR/USD will be at 1.50 tomorrow, but I won't "react" to it until I see that number printed.


As far as "guessing" the reaction ahead of time......that sounds like gambling. Good luck with that.

Your "lucky" trading compatriot,
Clockwork

By the way......
1.93-1.94 area of cable......pull up a weekly and look how "random" that area is.
  • #109
  • May 14, 2008 2:10pm May 14, 2008 2:10pm
New traders, lend me your ear!!!!

So I have been reading this thread, and a few others. I start to see a pattern here:

We have a few members on these forums that seem to be alright with constant negativity. (This certainly isn't random.) Actually, I will go one further and analyze this behavior.

Think back to when you were in elementary school. (Early childhood for those of you not in the States.) There was several types of people, and I submit that in a lot of ways, you have learned everything you are ever going to by age 10 about human behavior. ;-)

Actually, there's something to that. It makes the market move. People and egos......ahhh, I can smell the pips in the air. I love it.

One particular person was toxic. They appear to be strong, and helpful, but at the same time never have anything positive to say. You probably have a friend or two like this unfortunately, who always see the glass as "half-empty." They say things like...."Rich people are evil." "People who are rich got lucky, or screwed someone in the process." "There is no hope, because we are only a few people." Or more often if it's a woman....after you say something about interest in another woman, she says something like: "Oh, she's pretty, but a real B#T#H!"

I think we have something like this going on. Think of this: What if the Wright Brothers listened to everyone, who in good intentions, said that "Flight isn't possible." Or maybe Martin Luther King, Jr. Mother Theresa, That Polish cat...Walensa?....or anyone else that has gone on to do great things. These people did something worth remembering. All you are doing is trying to make more than you lose. Period. If you can do this, you are a profitable trader. There is no other definition. (There are varying levels, but that is semantics.)

You really aren't trying to do anything worthwhile. That's right I said it. Greedy douchebags! Just admit it, and learn to control it......you are 3 steps ahead of the other traders. I have learned my greed is what I am trading against, not "random noise" - that's for people trading the 15 minute charts. The point is, if there are people telling you that it's not possible, and you can bring down communism....then certainly a person could bring in some pips. Think about that.

Let's be honest here, most of you are not trading serious amounts of money anyway, so get over it.

To me, by saying that everything is "random", it's a built in excuse. "Oh the big bad market is in control, and there's no hope."

To make matters worse, one of these "helpful" people manages other people's money. That scares me. Oh wait, no it does not, because I know how to make money. Why would I pay him to "guess" and "feel hopeless" for me? I am married, I can do that on my own. LOL.

I am not Pollyanna. I am not saying that it is easy. Well, actually the trading part is. It's the self-control that gets most of us in the end I believe. Any idiot (except two that I can think of I guess.) can read a chart. Myself included. Teach yourself. It will work your brain, instead of focus all energy on building reasons why you can't win....figure out a way to win.

I don't think all of you will be profitable, but certainly being told there is no hope isn't helping either. I cannot think how this adds to any discussion. The only thing it does is make the poster feel better about their failures. It all comes back to the third grade again.

As far as bashing James, give it a rest. Do you honestly think that someone who has read your venom in other posts will give you any credibility? James not only offers free memberships after a year, about half of the members are already free. He is the real deal, and a great guy. You can see it in the type of people that come there.

The psych guy (Fiji) is a true master. He put some things in perspective about trading, that I put towards quitting smoking. After 22 years, I just stopped one day. Period. He is that good.

Also, unlike other "gurus" out there....Jim actually is comfortable in "endorsing" other teachers. He speaks highly of Rob Booker and Jacko for example. Why? Because they are decent, honest people.

So new guys, just think about who you listen to. Someone filled with hope, and willing to help....or someone that will tell you how "It's not your fault". It's your choice, and I wish you all the best of luck.

No need for a response, I've just ended this conversation.

Clockwork
  • #110
  • May 14, 2008 2:13pm May 14, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting soultrader
please, not a nutcase bible basher.

doesn't believe in randomness but believes in some fictitious entity sat on a cloud.

give me strength
Thank you for your input. Go be miserable somewhere else please. Attacking someone's core beliefs had nothing to do with trading, and EVERYTHING to do with what kind of a person you are.
  • #111
  • May 14, 2008 2:14pm May 14, 2008 2:14pm
Quoting HouseTrader


What is the big deal? Assume that the market IS IRRATIONAL and moves randomly. If the market were logical, the all we had to do is going long NZD/JPY (huge interest difference, great swaps....) and come back one year later to pick the profit. But interest rates itself desn't move anthing at this market. Have the macro economic in US changed for real? Nope. (IMHO). So why the hell the the USD is gong north for some weeks? Some "good" news? Not enough to me. They are too noisy to tell me that at this exact moment the CBs big guys are thinking "Ok, I guess it's time to fill our pockets with the green again..."

We trade expectations,not currencies. And a CB's big boss expectations can be so different of the economic scenario... But based on their expectations, and on their need to protect their own country's economy, they can move zillions at one time, making the market move along. We just stay at our monitors screaming "What the hell, this was not supposed to move that way! Stop you muthaf#%&@r!"... But Mr Market (or Mr Trichet, or Mr Bernanke can't hear you, sorry...) and it keeps moving... So, the best thing to do is assume that, even "thinking" right, Mr. Market said that you were wrong. Cut you loosing position, take a deep breath (and a Vicodin, just kidding) and go to the next try.

Just my 2 cents...
Nice 2 cents answers

Even when your 2 cents answer has given a clue that market is not random, those who do not understand your answer or market will still continue to say it is random. Lack of understanding is the problem here.

Lack of understanding make things looks complex = random = failures

Is this not correct?

What baffles me is that why those saying it is random continue to trade it when they know they will lose money in the final analysis.

lastly what is the method for predicting random systems? tossing of a coin.

How many people here have succefully made it gambling or by tossing of coins. Even in Las Vegas we do have people winning that is why people keep going back there.

If market is random it should give 50/50 winners and losers. But it is not the case.
  • #112
  • May 14, 2008 3:42pm May 14, 2008 3:42pm
Quoting fxbroker
Nice 2 cents answers

Even when your 2 cents answer has given a clue that market is not random, those who do not understand your answer or market will still continue to say it is random. Lack of understanding is the problem here.

Lack of understanding make things looks complex = random = failures

Is this not correct?

What baffles me is that why those saying it is random continue to trade it when they know they will lose money in the final analysis.

lastly what is the method for predicting random systems? tossing of a coin.

How many people here have succefully made it gambling or by tossing of coins. Even in Las Vegas we do have people winning that is why people keep going back there.

If market is random it should give 50/50 winners and losers. But it is not the case.
Another 2 cents....

No intention to offend anyone, let´s make the discussion grow, we all can benefit... I guess we are here struggling too much with pure semantics, and I can't say I'm an expert in any language, even my own (portuguese)....

When I call the market "random", I'm trying to say that it moves more on a chaotic and irrational unpredictable way... You´re right, if we take the therm "random" technically, it is supposed to give us a 50/50 ratio, since the only moves are UP or DOWN, and the best chance to win should be a coin toss..... . And I guess nobody would get into a trade that is for sure 50/50. Our expectations of the market, based on our rational analysis, past price action, indicators, S/R lines, whatever, makes us believe that the price is going to move the direction we are trading. That makes us expect at least a 51/49 ratio .

But what I'd like to clarify is that, for me, the market has a high degree of irrationality, which results in very strange movements. And additionally, also IMHO, it's impossible to PREDICT the move. That's why I call it "random". As I said, we trade expectations more than currencies. The bullish USD movement from last days/weeks seems to me completely irrational, since the scenario has not changed. We got just a few "good" news... But it's hard to me to believe that it happened cause price reached some S/R level, or a magic Fib that played S/R... I think the big CBs sharks are reading their reports and trading expectations something different from ours, poor pilot-fish worms, and making the move.

Let's cut the losses and follow the sharks....

Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #113
  • May 14, 2008 5:03pm May 14, 2008 5:03pm
clockwork, get a grip.

please read my post properley before commenting.

just because the market is mostly random does not mean i'm guessing when I take a trade. you can make money from a random market without guessing anything, and I do and have done for many years now. That at least should be obvious even to one as challenged as you.

re james 16, remember i wasnt the one who came on patronising like i was a first year student, enagage brain before opening mouth.

and i bet you will be ever so grateful having a room for free after youve paid almost $2000 for it over the year, a real bonus that! 500+ people at 2k each ... hmmm let me think where his money comes from lol. not bad, over a million dollars to describe a rejection bar and an engulfing candle - not bad at all. yes, ive read the thread, its big on baloney and short on reality.

doesn't it interest you in the slightest or ruffle your thoughts a little that those saying the market is random have been trading the longest? lets have this conversation in five or six years when you are at our stage.

i also don't think it's a good thing to fill the gullible with hope - there are very very few on this board who make any money at all and of those only a small few make enough for it to count. I dont believe in filling people with false hope - 98% (yes 98% FACT) fail in this game - chances are if you are reading this that you are one of them. Sure, i can blow smoke up your ass if it makes you feel good, but it wont do you any favors unlesss you change your paradigm and stop following the assholes designing systems, indicators etc based on predictions. think for yourself and try hard and chances are you'll still lose.

Best get a job unless youve a lot of money and a lot of luck. I'm lucky that i've learned how to extract a living from this market for myself and some growth for my clients - how about you?

sorry like, but thats the truth.

now here come the smoke blowers - i'm out of here.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #114
  • May 14, 2008 5:22pm May 14, 2008 5:22pm
Quoting soultrader
clockwork, get a grip.

please read my post properley before commenting.

just because the market is mostly random does not mean i'm guessing when I take a trade. you can make money from a random market without guessing anything, and I do and have done for many years now. That at least should be obvious even to one as challenged as you.

re james 16, remember i wasnt the one who came on patronising like i was a first year student, enagage brain before opening mouth.

and i bet you will be ever so grateful having a room for free after youve paid almost $2000 for it over the year, a real bonus that! 500+ people at 2k each ... hmmm let me think where his money comes from lol. not bad, over a million dollars to describe a rejection bar and an engulfing candle - not bad at all. yes, ive read the thread, its big on baloney and short on reality.

doesn't it interest you in the slightest or ruffle your thoughts a little that those saying the market is random have been trading the longest? lets have this conversation in five or six years when you are at our stage.

i also don't think it's a good thing to fill the gullible with hope - there are very very few on this board who make any money at all and of those only a small few make enough for it to count. I dont believe in filling people with false hope - 98% (yes 98% FACT) fail in this game - chances are if you are reading this that you are one of them. Sure, i can blow smoke up your ass if it makes you feel good, but it wont do you any favors unlesss you change your paradigm and stop following the assholes designing systems, indicators etc based on predictions. think for yourself and try hard and chances are you'll still lose.

Best get a job unless youve a lot of money and a lot of luck. I'm lucky that i've learned how to extract a living from this market for myself and some growth for my clients - how about you?

sorry like, but thats the truth.

now here come the smoke blowers - i'm out of here.
Wow. You really don't have a clue do you? It's just sad.

Good luck to you.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #115
  • May 14, 2008 5:29pm May 14, 2008 5:29pm
wow clockwork you don't need a workout after typing all those words.... bet you burned 1000 calories in the process.


i post what i think is true. ... no ... what IS TRUE.

you can't disprove a word i've said. i've been waiting for awhile now....

i bet they thought christopher columbus was "negative" because he said the world was round.... it's human nature to be afraid of new ideas.....

the bottom line: people look for order and structure in their everyday life. it's programmed into us. and so we look at charts as conforming to order.

THEY DON'T. that's why i say, markets are like quantum physics....

by the way, who is the senior person posting? i've been in "the game" for years before i joined forex factory. if you are a newbie, do your own homework, come to your own conclusions, and don't be afraid to say opposing points of view to the ignorant majority.
  • #116
  • May 14, 2008 5:31pm May 14, 2008 5:31pm
soultrader that's a great point about james16 raking in serious cash.

personally, i think jim is a decent guy that means well. but facts are facts. he has a thriving business if he gets enough memberships.
  • #117
  • May 14, 2008 5:38pm May 14, 2008 5:38pm
I think the main point which everybody keeps missing here is that my shlong is way bigger than anybody else's.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #118
  • May 14, 2008 5:42pm May 14, 2008 5:42pm
Quoting Craig
I think the main point which everybody keeps missing here is that my shlong is way bigger than anybody else's.
Damn, I was just about to say that :nerd:
  • #119
  • May 14, 2008 5:51pm May 14, 2008 5:51pm
Quoting tdion

by the way, who is the senior person posting?


That's absurd.......... the amount of time on a forum board or number of posts mean absolutely nothing in the real world.

Most pro's wont spend the precious time or bandwidth on these forums.

No mines bigger!!!!
  • #120
  • May 14, 2008 5:56pm May 14, 2008 5:56pm
actually it's evidence of my active efforts in this industry.

which is more than you can show "in the real world."

p.s.) who are some of these mythological traders that won't spend time on the boards? yet again, we have more fabrications of profitable forex traders that have licked the forex monster, but won't join the 95% club at forex factory.

Quoting auxesis


That's absurd.......... the amount of time on a forum board or number of posts mean absolutely nothing in the real world.
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