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Wall Street close watch

  • #581
  • May 13, 2008 9:15am May 13, 2008 9:15am
Hi SL, soory for no update but was away from the computer, here is my current view:
As far as the Dow, i do think that we might, I emphasize might be entering a most powerfull 3rd wave down, i have an important day for the Dow on the 18th, that being a Sunday I will closely watch fridays and mondays action to see if we get a confiramtion time wise, as far as price wise we did bounce off of 12700 area roughly, but the bounce is weak at least for now and also the volume is weak as well, that tells me that the scenario with the 3rd wave could be in the works, I'm bearish, was expecting a bounce this week in the carry, but the bounce on the yen is a bit higher than what \i would of liked to see in a perfecr scenario, so my line in the sand to turn neutral is around the 105-105.20 area, ideall speaking i would like the high that was made today to hold, I have some cycles line up with today on the yen, if the high holds and we make a new low, in a few days, then that would be the signal to not scale out of shorts but keep building for the ride down.
One last thing to note, the action on the Gbp/Usd together with the COT data strongly suggests of a flip, I'm almost completely out of my shorts and watching closely, do expect a very strong wave up, possibly surpassing 2.04 last high and coming close to 2.07, at least a 1000 pip play, watch out for the wedge, ideally it will break down through 1.94, and have a strong impulse wave up, watch out for 20:00 gmt today on the cable, could be a long in the works as I'm typing this.

Gene
  • #582
  • May 13, 2008 9:21am May 13, 2008 9:21am
Quoting gene22
Hi SL, soory for no update but was away from the computer, here is my current view:
As far as the Dow, i do think that we might, I emphasize might be entering a most powerfull 3rd wave down, i have an important day for the Dow on the 18th, that being a Sunday I will closely watch fridays and mondays action to see if we get a confiramtion time wise, as far as price wise we did bounce off of 12700 area roughly, but the bounce is weak at least for now and also the volume is weak as well, that tells me that the scenario with the 3rd wave could be in the works, I'm bearish, was expecting a bounce this week in the carry, but the bounce on the yen is a bit higher than what \i would of liked to see in a perfecr scenario, so my line in the sand to turn neutral is around the 105-105.20 area, ideall speaking i would like the high that was made today to hold, I have some cycles line up with today on the yen, if the high holds and we make a new low, in a few days, then that would be the signal to not scale out of shorts but keep building for the ride down.
One last thing to note, the action on the Gbp/Usd together with the COT data strongly suggests of a flip, I'm almost completely out of my shorts and watching closely, do expect a very strong wave up, possibly surpassing 2.04 last high and coming close to 2.07, at least a 1000 pip play, watch out for the wedge, ideally it will break down through 1.94, and have a strong impulse wave up, watch out for 20:00 gmt today on the cable, could be a long in the works as I'm typing this.

Gene
Hi Gene - nice to see you back and thanks for the update - I'll take another look at my charts - especially cable!!

Edit: I guess that you've already seen how the YM was rejected at the 12,900 level before the NY Pit opened.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #583
  • May 14, 2008 1:19am May 14, 2008 1:19am
Well 20 gmt on cable had no reaction yesterday and that has me a bit concerned as it might indicate a very heavy underlying currents for the pound prssing it down, I will watch the price action, by the end of this week or at most beginning of next this situation should resolve itself. Still inclined to think to the upside...
  • #584
  • Edited 8:36am May 14, 2008 8:15am | Edited 8:36am
Gene, if you have any idea at all what's going on - indulge me

I no longer have any idea what this wackyness on the charts is doing lol

USDJPY hit/retested the broken TL (around 105.4) and EURJPY hit s/r at 162.85 around the .618ish fib, that's about as much as I can gather

But I do know that the final battle seems to be going on...today should have a decisive outcome..

DAX moved 100 pips down, 70+ back up. 7100-7000-7072..

We're not going to stay within the range forever(6950-7100ish).

Just wanted to say eeeeeyikes!

GBPUSD has begun trying to squeeze out of the wedge and formed a bullish 4h pin, maybe you'll get your GBPUSD wish at least
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #585
  • May 14, 2008 9:54am May 14, 2008 9:54am
Quoting SeekingLight
Gene, if you have any idea at all what's going on - indulge me

I no longer have any idea what this wackyness on the charts is doing lol

USDJPY hit/retested the broken TL (around 105.4) and EURJPY hit s/r at 162.85 around the .618ish fib, that's about as much as I can gather

But I do know that the final battle seems to be going on...today should have a decisive outcome..
Well, the market does look a bit whacky, no argument there from me, I see some shifts going on, don't like the action on the cable anymore, will start considerring bying around the big 50 fib, so far it looks pathetically weak, inmo very deceptive, I still think we will rally just not from around here and not yet, my time frames are a bit off let's see what the 16th 11 gmt brings and also the 20th at 5 pm gmt, i think that if we can get to around 1.91 level and it will line up with my time frame I'll long this Sob. As far as the yen, well, hate to say this but if you recall I did mention the 106.65 area, this would be ok by me, just screws up my other shorts from the 105.60 region, good thing took a bit off so would not be a big deal, still planning to hold on and add if it gets there. F-$%#^%#N euro/yen should be in the gutter by now but still going up, well if it manages to close above 163.09 I'll be upset, no, let's put it another way, freaking mad as hell and ready to kill.... Tomorrow should be the reversal on the Geppy, today should be the final high on the euro/yen, but to be honest don't like the correction, it smells like rotten eggs inmo. A bit too far on the wave count, not violating any rules yet but a bit too far, if surpasses 163.09, than that's it a range sideways meaningless up and down nonsence. Currently waiting for the Dow to touch the 13000 level once again hopefully for the last time in the next few years, if 13000 or a bit lower has a nice rejection than it would make me feel a bit better as it should tell me that the next minor(for now downleg is starting.
That's it, as you can see a bit of frustration as this market takes it's sweet time to finally crash and let me take a summer vacation
  • #586
  • May 14, 2008 10:07am May 14, 2008 10:07am
Ohh, forgot to add, I still am confident that the Dow will crashh and take the carry with it, the only prblem that i see is time, either we had started the leg lower or it will commence sometime around the beginning mid june, not to happy with the june scenario for personal reasons(planed vacation). Also been racking my brain for the fundamentall catalyst to drive this down. AS far as technical it is clear as day on the Dow, fundamentally ... a lot of things come to mind, nothing screams out, or a concrete hypothesis at the moment, would love to hear your take...

Gene
  • #587
  • May 14, 2008 11:15am May 14, 2008 11:15am
Quoting gene22
Ohh, forgot to add, I still am confident that the Dow will crashh and take the carry with it, the only prblem that i see is time, either we had started the leg lower or it will commence sometime around the beginning mid june, not to happy with the june scenario for personal reasons(planed vacation). Also been racking my brain for the fundamentall catalyst to drive this down. AS far as technical it is clear as day on the Dow,
I'm also at a loss what else this thing c/would do. The timing is the tough bit.


Quote
fundamentally ... a lot of things come to mind, nothing screams out, or a concrete hypothesis at the moment, would love to hear your take...

Gene
Ach you know me and fundamentals. Besides, I've gone around declaring them a lot of nimby-pimby, so I can't well go "fundies will do it" now

IMHO it's all just same old. As I've tried to phrase before: everyone is currently looking at these 20-50% monster losses and going phew, thank god we're expecting these, else we'd really be in the crapper.
Then AFTER all this swath of - now "expected" and therefore "normal" - bad stuff has happened, anything even worse or simply out of the blue could be enough.

It's not the concrete what, it's just the how and when I guess. I've got the feeling it will have one of the words "credit" or "mortgage" or "housing" in it
Or maybe it's a GDP release or a speech or something, who knows with these things. All we need is to see the chart do the song and dance we expect and it should be alright.

EJ's reaction at the 159ish boundary is suspicious simply because it's off the top of that monthly PB. If we make much new highs it may just as well move back to 165.50+, who knows.
Past that 163.10 area you mentioned and I suspect there will be stops and buyers. I think, as always, that USDJPY will be the key to all of this either way.
Alternately EURJPY's next step may just coincide with a strong push lower coming on EURUSD if the idea of a three step lower on that is still intact.

Considering EURUSD right now looks set to rise for it's final retrace, USDJPY needs to step up and step up quick or we'll get another rather hard move in the crosses possibly.

But right now it's all guessing hollabahooey

The fact that we went "too far" almost everywhere has thrown me, but something will happen somewhere eventually ;P

There, isn't THAT precision!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #588
  • May 15, 2008 1:07am May 15, 2008 1:07am
I'll be bold: I predict that the dow will hit 13k again once GBP/JPY hits around 207.86, and vice versa. After that, I predict a massive sell off. It seems we got a bit of one today on the DJIA as it came up very close to 13k, but quickly sold off dozens of points.

This is all just my musing obviously, we shall see.
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
  • #589
  • May 15, 2008 2:05am May 15, 2008 2:05am
Well, GJ is doing what it should(now a swift move below 230.30 and things should heat up) and UJ has begun as well.

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.

I'm still looking for sub 193ish => 190s preferably(which shouldn't be a prob if UJ pulls along).

If we haven't begun the new move now, then I don't know when we're supposed to.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #590
  • May 15, 2008 2:41am May 15, 2008 2:41am
Quoting SeekingLight
Well, GJ is doing what it should(now a swift move below 230.30 and things should heat up) and UJ has begun as well.

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.

I'm still looking for sub 193ish => 190s preferably(which shouldn't be a prob if UJ pulls along).

If we haven't begun the new move now, then I don't know when we're supposed to.
Well, 230.30 on GJ would be a slam dunk. lol. I think you meant 203.30, that surely would be nice, so far I see carry hanging on by a thread, moves on the majors are also beginning to develop, from the looks of things though I don't think we start another nice leg down untill tomorrow, today would be range inmo, dollar is correcting, pound, euro up, yen down, carry in the middle, lol
  • #591
  • Edited 6:22am May 16, 2008 2:59am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting gene22
Well, 230.30 on GJ would be a slam dunk. lol. I think you meant 203.30, that surely would be nice, so far I see carry hanging on by a thread, moves on the majors are also beginning to develop, from the looks of things though I don't think we start another nice leg down untill tomorrow, today would be range inmo, dollar is correcting, pound, euro up, yen down, carry in the middle, lol

Yes, sorry, it was of course 203.30, the trendline area and one of the interim lows.

Btw, has anyone noticed yesterday we got 2 headlines of "the crisis is waning" and the first thing we get over night is EJ GJ UJ down?
Wall street closes at bullishbullishbullishbullish highs, yet the YEN soars.

Now, the only fundy fun fun I saw was the GDP - so, will the new excuse be a strong Japan gets to get a strong JPY despite all the "might be near 0 in the coming quarters" statements and "probably all hold" stuff?

Then again - EURCHF and GBPCHF took a dive as well, where's the sense in that?

Or to phrase it differently - isn't this all really a load of bollocks?
(i.e. fundy fact A is carry bullish until fundy fact B says it isn't as in it goes up unless it goes down)

Either way, the stock market / carry connection seems to have temporarily left the building(or weakened? or become disjunct in timing?) - IMHO something very worthy of discussing.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #592
  • May 16, 2008 3:28am May 16, 2008 3:28am
We just hit the 50% line of the descent on the DAX and are within 40 pips of 7200, the August 2007 low and a round nr - now I'm curious.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #593
  • May 16, 2008 5:04am May 16, 2008 5:04am
7191 on the Dax should he a line in the sand, time wise and structure wise I see almost all of the signs pointing to the beginning of a huge meltdown, the biggest leg to date in this bear market. It is possible for the Dax to reach as high as 7444, but not likely inmo, Nasdaq is very close to 2602 gap that was left when the move down happened, I can't see the dow surpassing the high on may 2nd, it could in theory, but so far it will take a strong close above the 13255 level to shed some doubt on the bear implications. A few markets are very close, almost there for the turn, I remeber telling you that I will be watching today and monday, I think that the turn is very, very close. Movements are irrational, swift, the market spends a lot of time with no clear direction, clear berish divergence on most time frames on the dow including the daily, it's a significant fact. there is also divergence on the geppy pointing to below 196, on the euro yen cross to below 150 and these are daily's, if that's not a sign i don't now what is. But as you well know the market likes to test the patience and gets the naysayers convinced that the "worst is over", we shall see. The move should start soon, if not next week Monday than no later than the first week of June. Stay patient, and we shall be rewarded, lol

Gene
PS, I don't trade dax if you do I would definetelly watch it now and short it as soon as the pa confirms, take cars
  • #594
  • May 16, 2008 6:16am May 16, 2008 6:16am
Quoting gene22
It is possible for the Dax to reach as high as 7444, but not likely inmo, Nasdaq is very close to 2602 gap that was left when the move down happened, I can't see the dow surpassing the high on may 2nd, it could in theory, but so far it will take a strong close above the 13255 level to shed some doubt on the bear implications. A few markets are very close, almost there for the turn, I remeber telling you that I will be watching today and monday, I think that the turn is very, very close. Movements are irrational, swift, the market spends a lot of time with no clear direction, clear berish divergence on most time frames on the dow including the daily, it's a significant fact. there is also divergence on the geppy pointing to below 196, on the euro yen cross to below 150 and these are daily's, if that's not a sign i don't now what is. But as you well know the market likes to test the patience and gets the naysayers convinced that the "worst is over", we shall see. The move should start soon, if not next week Monday than no later than the first week of June. Stay patient, and we shall be rewarded, lol
Gene
Yepp. I think next week will have to be "it". I'm amazed you had that date down way ahead of time if it does manifest itself. Crazy stuff. Ready when you are
IMHO saying things are waning and getting better is the safest trend continuation indicator one can get
It's when eventually everyone calls for new lows that we should close out the shorts..


Quote
7191 on the Dax should he a line in the sand, time wise and structure wise I see almost all of the signs pointing to the beginning of a huge meltdown, the biggest leg to date in this bear market.

PS, I don't trade dax if you do I would definetelly watch it now and short it as soon as the pa confirms, take cars
I wish I could. Wanted to open another broker account that has that option, but registration was iffy. But my personal area of "look out" is right around here with 7250 tops, a 1:1 projection of the consolidation range at 6960-7100. IMHO the same pattern we've seen on USDJPY before on a 4h scale.

Thanks for sticking around so I don't feel so alone here =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #595
  • May 16, 2008 6:35am May 16, 2008 6:35am
Quoting SeekingLight
IMHO saying things are waning and getting better is the safest trend continuation indicator one can get
It's when eventually everyone calls for new lows that we should close out the shorts..
Those are my thoughts exactly, the only thing that gets me a bit, tiny, tiny bit worried right now are the seasonals if you know what I mean. Ideally in a normal bull market you sell in may and forget it as the saying goes. Right now though everything is reversed, so it is possible for us to be range bound till June, or still go up a bit. Personally am very tired of this bullshit rally it stinks, don't trust it for a second classic "sucker's rally"


Quote
Thanks for sticking around so I don't feel so alone here =)
You are welcome, you do have a finger on the pulse so I like to hear your views...
  • #596
  • May 16, 2008 9:38am May 16, 2008 9:38am
Quoting gene22


You are welcome, you do have a finger on the pulse so I like to hear your views...

I am viewing that 1h DAX PB at the weekly TL underside as a perfect opportunity that I wish I could take
But it seems the rest of everything is starting to do it's thing.

Missed the last 105 UJ sell though
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #597
  • Edited 11:25am May 16, 2008 10:01am | Edited 11:25am
To show what I mean and why this area had a lot going for it:
round nr, s/r, TL underside, 50% fib.
Then a 1h PB right at that spot. What more does one need?

A broker to trade it...oops :blushing:

Next time

Thank god for the JPY


Updated weekly chart after we got rejected quiiiiiiiite a bit at Target 1 and delayed(btw if we do make it to FE 100 at T3, I do wonder what the headlines would be then..currently it's just a "crazy" projection..oh, and what the carry pairs will have for prices there..):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dax_080516_weekly_update.gif Size: 23 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #598
  • May 16, 2008 11:10am May 16, 2008 11:10am
SL, Gene,

Great stuff you guys are doing here. I believe that the Oil conundrum is also going to play a huge part.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #599
  • May 16, 2008 11:39am May 16, 2008 11:39am
Thanks DT, I'm sure plenty of folks think we're both absolutely nuts


Btw Gene, if you have/find the time to look over
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...7&postcount=24
my USDJPY count, that'd be cool.

I'm not sure whether we're in III.5 or V next and how to best look for targets...simple version is using 50% retrace => 138.2% extension, which ends up somewhere below the 90s end of the wave long term.

Anyone else who has some EW skills(as in: trades it live for $$$), please feel free to chime in so that I may learn from my mistakes.

It's just a hobby next to PA for me as I find it gives me some good ideas/scenarios, projections and boundaries.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #600
  • May 16, 2008 11:54am May 16, 2008 11:54am
The signs are there, look at the UJ to me that's the canary in the coalmine. 105 unable to be breached on "allegedly" positive data.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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