Hi SL, soory for no update but was away from the computer, here is my current view:
As far as the Dow, i do think that we might, I emphasize might be entering a most powerfull 3rd wave down, i have an important day for the Dow on the 18th, that being a Sunday I will closely watch fridays and mondays action to see if we get a confiramtion time wise, as far as price wise we did bounce off of 12700 area roughly, but the bounce is weak at least for now and also the volume is weak as well, that tells me that the scenario with the 3rd wave could be in the works, I'm bearish, was expecting a bounce this week in the carry, but the bounce on the yen is a bit higher than what \i would of liked to see in a perfecr scenario, so my line in the sand to turn neutral is around the 105-105.20 area, ideall speaking i would like the high that was made today to hold, I have some cycles line up with today on the yen, if the high holds and we make a new low, in a few days, then that would be the signal to not scale out of shorts but keep building for the ride down.
One last thing to note, the action on the Gbp/Usd together with the COT data strongly suggests of a flip, I'm almost completely out of my shorts and watching closely, do expect a very strong wave up, possibly surpassing 2.04 last high and coming close to 2.07, at least a 1000 pip play, watch out for the wedge, ideally it will break down through 1.94, and have a strong impulse wave up, watch out for 20:00 gmt today on the cable, could be a long in the works as I'm typing this.
Gene
As far as the Dow, i do think that we might, I emphasize might be entering a most powerfull 3rd wave down, i have an important day for the Dow on the 18th, that being a Sunday I will closely watch fridays and mondays action to see if we get a confiramtion time wise, as far as price wise we did bounce off of 12700 area roughly, but the bounce is weak at least for now and also the volume is weak as well, that tells me that the scenario with the 3rd wave could be in the works, I'm bearish, was expecting a bounce this week in the carry, but the bounce on the yen is a bit higher than what \i would of liked to see in a perfecr scenario, so my line in the sand to turn neutral is around the 105-105.20 area, ideall speaking i would like the high that was made today to hold, I have some cycles line up with today on the yen, if the high holds and we make a new low, in a few days, then that would be the signal to not scale out of shorts but keep building for the ride down.
One last thing to note, the action on the Gbp/Usd together with the COT data strongly suggests of a flip, I'm almost completely out of my shorts and watching closely, do expect a very strong wave up, possibly surpassing 2.04 last high and coming close to 2.07, at least a 1000 pip play, watch out for the wedge, ideally it will break down through 1.94, and have a strong impulse wave up, watch out for 20:00 gmt today on the cable, could be a long in the works as I'm typing this.
Gene