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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #80,661
  • May 13, 2008 2:37pm May 13, 2008 2:37pm
Quoting Clouds
It's not going lower, I believe. UJ was `104 in 1995, and 102 in 2000, 132 in 2002, and 127 in 2007. We are at the lows in 2008. There isn't room to go lower. Would you sell UJ now, if you knew you had to cash out in 3 months?
there is still room and there is still precedence for it to go lower. This time of year in 1995 it was at 79.75
  • #80,662
  • May 13, 2008 2:37pm May 13, 2008 2:37pm
Quoting DutchTrader
You might want to double check those figures.

UJ was 80 in 95, 101 in 99, 119 in 2002 As for a 3 month play, probably not. Here's an interesting tidbit:

Bloomberg news reports that Moody's has greater concerns regarding MBIA and Ambac capitalization levels. Further MBIA and Ambac losses have elevated the AAA rating concerns for Moody's. Moody's said that worsening 2nd lien RMBS could impact financial guarantor ratings if they prove to be "material".
Ok, but keep in mind in 95' it was due to intervention, the US planned to depreciate the dollar, and publicly announced it, which was called plaza accord. Then when it hit 80 they decided to reverse it, by more intervention. It was a disaster, caused Japan to go into a depression. We aren't hearing intervention at least publicly, unless it's secret. That's why I do not see 95's lows as relevant.
  • #80,663
  • May 13, 2008 2:38pm May 13, 2008 2:38pm
The biggest thing is housing, people just act like it's all over. Again, I'm not an expert, but I have a few friends in real estate mostly high end in a few different locations and it's just a huge problem that people keep insisting isn't a big deal because "We knew housing was bad". That's like saying "Well I'm not worried about my doctor telling me I only have 5 months to live, becuase I knew I had cancer anyway"

With all that being said I just do what I do with the charts, but I definitely don't ignore the fundamentals
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #80,664
  • May 13, 2008 2:39pm May 13, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting Clouds
Ok, but keep in mind in 95' it was due to intervention, the US planned to depreciate the dollar, and publicly announced it, which was called plaza accord. Then when it hit 80 they decided to reverse it, by more intervention. We aren't hearing intervention at least publicly, unless it's secret.
You're also forgetting that this is a much bigger pool now. Back then it was a kiddy pool, now it's an olympic size pool. Much harder to keep levels imvho, but again, we'll see.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #80,665
  • May 13, 2008 2:42pm May 13, 2008 2:42pm
Top of downtrend channel.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow2.GIF Size: 28 KB
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #80,666
  • May 13, 2008 2:44pm May 13, 2008 2:44pm
Doesn't look like it has the power to break the 200 ema resistance. I am expecting it to pull back to at least 4 hr 5 sma. I take a good risk .. I guess ..Just went short .. let's see (Please don't let me influence your judgement call .. thank you) Just trying to share ..
  • #80,667
  • May 13, 2008 2:44pm May 13, 2008 2:44pm
Quoting DutchTrader
You're also forgetting that this is a much bigger pool now. Back then it was a kiddy pool, now it's an olympic size pool. Much harder to keep levels imvho, but again, we'll see.
Yeah, we'll see. I just wouldn't "count" on those lows again. Sure the US is struggling, but so is everyone else. I read stuff about how bad the US economy is all the time, but I really think we are just cry babies. Other countries just aren't complaining..
  • #80,668
  • May 13, 2008 2:45pm May 13, 2008 2:45pm
Quoting mktjong
Doesn't look like it has the power to break the 200 ema resistance. i am expecting to pull back to at least 4 hr sma. I take a good risk .. I guess ..Just went short .. let's see (Please don't let me influence your judgement call .. thank you) Just trying to share ..
I'm short from 204.13....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #80,669
  • May 13, 2008 2:48pm May 13, 2008 2:48pm
where are the poponents of d DOW ally, i dont see no DOW rally, but a DOW sell
  • #80,670
  • May 13, 2008 2:49pm May 13, 2008 2:49pm
whats your target?

203.25 looks like a resis area?

Quoting Infinity
I'm short from 204.13....
  • #80,671
  • May 13, 2008 2:50pm May 13, 2008 2:50pm
Quoting Infinity
I'm short from 204.13....
Cool .. bro ..
I shorted @203.97 .. let's start to push it down now .. Get ready to jump into lilmoe's boat .. hehehe
  • #80,672
  • May 13, 2008 2:51pm May 13, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting guess121
whats your target?

203.25 looks like a resis area?
Just about that area

It is also where the 15m 50 ema is.

I am watching these last 10 min closely though.:nerd:
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #80,673
  • May 13, 2008 2:52pm May 13, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting Infinity
I'm short from 204.13....
look who's going short
  • #80,674
  • May 13, 2008 2:52pm May 13, 2008 2:52pm
I may join you guys... but yet...

what are your targets?

Quoting mktjong
Cool .. bro ..
I shorted @203.97 .. let's start to push it down now .. Get ready to jump into lilmoe's boat .. hehehe
  • #80,675
  • May 13, 2008 2:53pm May 13, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting mktjong
Cool .. bro ..
I shorted @203.97 .. let's start to push it down now .. Get ready to jump into lilmoe's boat .. hehehe
I liked DT's mother's day toilet with the flowers better.....LOOOL.
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #80,676
  • May 13, 2008 2:53pm May 13, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting mktjong
Cool .. bro ..
I shorted @203.97 .. let's start to push it down now .. Get ready to jump into lilmoe's boat .. hehehe

good god, hey the boat doesn't fit all of us
  • #80,677
  • May 13, 2008 2:54pm May 13, 2008 2:54pm
Quoting Clouds
Yeah, we'll see. I just wouldn't "count" on those lows again. Sure the US is struggling, but so is everyone else. I read stuff about how bad the US economy is all the time, but I really think we are just cry babies. Other countries just aren't complaining..
You should check out what makes the US economy work.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #80,678
  • May 13, 2008 2:54pm May 13, 2008 2:54pm
I mentioned earlier that 12850 is good resistence and its holding right there looks like we might be heading to mid 202 again. I will wait to short a full lot after interest payment at 5 is given out. Already short a small lot at 203.88 but if the Daily closes today above 203.50 then look out north.
  • #80,679
  • May 13, 2008 2:55pm May 13, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting lilmoe
look who's going short
Look back at my posts... I never mentioned longing further than 204.2.
I trade what I see BOTH ways.

Bless
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #80,680
  • May 13, 2008 2:57pm May 13, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting lilmoe
good god, hey the boat doesn't fit all of us
hey .. at least Infinity wanna DT's flower toilet better ..
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