Sterling

Didn't want to jack someone else's cable thread so I opened this up new.

Okay it is now 9 months from christmas 2008. If that doesn't appeal to you
then, there's 9 months left in the trading year. 1st QTR '08 is just about toast.

I know the UK has it's own special set of problems and I don't pretend to
understand all of the fundamentals at work in Brittain's economy. However,
from a technical view, this is what I see:

That's what my chart is telling me.

How this figures into the outcome of GBP/JPY for the balance of 2008, I'm not sure yet.

I like this 200 area in Geppy. A 190 pound/dollar + a 105 dollar/yen still equals ~200.

Lowest bottom call I heard for U/J was 88 yen to the Dollar B4 the US elections.
I think that would be overdoing it and the carry trade would reach an exhaustion level.

We outta get atleast one good round of carry winding by sometime this summer
so I think some support there. But anyway, as for the Pound, my chart says down this year.

You know historically, the GBP/USD was always much, much higher than $2.00
Of course, the US Dollar was always much much higher against alot of money
from an historical perspective.

Could it be the world is repositioning its' global wealth for the 21st century ?
(next 50 years - next 100 years) ?

Hello all,

Just kicking aroung the old "over and under ~200~" argument on the Geppy.

If the US Dollar stays under as much pressure as it has for the 1st part of '08
(thus far) then, much to the dismay of the asian exporters, the Yen could
hold it's own for the latter half of '08, meaning the 100 level as a reference point,
as opposed to the 110 or 113 level as previously forcast at the outset
of the year.

With a sub-200 cable, that doesn't make much of a case for the Pound/Yen to
"take off into the wild blue" just yet - maybe not this year at all.

In fact, with the failure to reach past 209 to the 211 area (38 fib ret.)
in this most recent winding of the carry trade ( about 1600+ pips or so)
and the possiblility that there's a 5th wave of this C correction still looming,
I'm not sure that the much anticipated 200 level that we waited and waited for
months to appear won't be around for a little while longer while the 190's
get probed and tested. Patience is what you practice when you position trade.

I STILL LIKE 200 LONG TERM. It's like any Great Big figure. They'll buy it.
Then they'll break it. They'll write options on it until the cows come home.
Entire corpotations will change hands at that figure. It's a biggie.
It's not Sacred. It's meant to be traded, on both sides. It's money, 'ya know.

Meanwhile, if there's another 5 to 10 percent of leeway on the bottom,
depending on the measured objective, who in their right mind would be
drawing a line in the sand at 200 yen ?? It's still just a number,
so I want to treat it that way.

Would welcome any input from this fine community of Pound Yen Traders.

//Toshi