rafuzii GBP/jpy journal

hai here i would like to share and do some analysis. i just use qqe, rsi pivot s and r, ema 25, ema 50, sma 5 and candlestisck formation. my favourate pair is GBP/jpy...

bullish patern in 4h and qqe cross back to north..i expect price can go to test 204.50 and than 205.50 (the harder resistent) any bearsih patern in this area and posiblely creat double top...range target for this week is (200 -205.50)

corection time is very hard to determine where the price is going to go..here is 15 min analisys base on qqe, rsi, fibo and price pateren. here we can see the price stll want to go north even it look harder,,,and we can see also double top in that area...HERE THE PICTURE BEFORE the price fall AND AFTER...

daily cs close bullish but still 4h stock OB, qqe cross down and i think price will going down in 202.20 (pivot point) -201.90 and than back to test new high 204.50. if break any price of this range will consider unvilid....any bullish patern in 202.20 -201.90 area maybe a good sign to buy ...

today price movement is going out of my expectation and hit below 50% fibo but still have reversal patern in 38.2% fibo..

NIce..journal bro keeping your analysis...

203.70 is looking hard to break...i consider to sell at top at 203.60 and TP at 50% fibo or 5 sma (202.80) daily if the resistant can't break...and price maybe go down below to test 202.40...if have any reversal patern in this area i will consder to buy..or continue sell in that area TP 200.00 if not have anyreversal sign.. daily GJ movement today only 250 pip. that showing it have some resistant especialy close to double top area...it hard to predict....but 1hqq and stock have some divergence,

today one more time price going out of my expectation..it not totally touch sma 5 daily or 202.80 that i think before. it just touch 4h sma5. but looking for long term we got divergence in 1h tf (qqe, rsi, momentum and stock) and 4h momentum is very strong pointing down below (45 degree). daily sma 5 still vilid for target 202.90.. i expect it should be head and shoulder in daily tf...my target still 202.90 for TP..

G posibely 4h double top.....and hit back to 205.xx

Hey, Genius. Can You Make 47.69% per Year? by S. Wade Hansen

Barron's just came out with its annual listing of the "Best 50 Hedge Funds." Topping the list was RAB Special Situations with a 3-year cumulative average return of 47.69%. Of the top 50, only 24 of them have an average return over 30%, while the bottom 11 didn't even break 25%.
So why am I telling you this? I'm hoping to help you set your expectations for your own returns in the realm of reality.

These numbers are incredibly impressive. The managers that run these funds are well-educated professionals that employ tremendous amounts of leverage and have a team of traders executing their trades for them. You and I, on the other hand, are relatively well educated hobbyists that also have some leverage at our disposal who must place all of our trades on our own when we are not at work or tending to things in our personal lives.

Do you see the difference? Professional hedge-fund managers have many advantages over us, and the best hedge fund out there doesn't have an annualized return higher than 50%. Yet, I hear novice forex investors tell me almost daily that they plan on achieving returns of greater than 100%. Granted, individual investors (like us) do have some advantages over large institutional investors because we can be a little more nimble, but those advantages will not enable us to more than double the returns of the top professionals.

Hopefully, you are investing in the forex market to diversify your total portfolio and to beat the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 (which return somewhere in the range of 12% to 13% per year, on average). If you can double the average returns you would see in the stock market by earning 25% per year in your forex account, you are a superstar.

Naturally, you will have some years when you do much better than this, but you are also going to have years when you don't do quite as well. But if you're practicing proper risk management and position sizing, you should be able to outperform the stock market.

Keep dreaming big, but don't let your dreams cause you to make stupid trades. And at the end of the year, when you have made more than 20% in your account, know that you have made enough to make the Barron's top 50 list. That should be enough to make anyone smile.

today very interesting movement, my expectation still vilid, like i said before, it can't move down and stuck at 203.70 -60. i'll monitoring closely that level and consider to sell for breakthrough 203.70 - 60 and 1st target 202.98 and 2st target 202.36 (50% fibo). if break 202.36 my target is 200.80

range GBP/JPY for this week maybe in 204.60-70 until 200.80 - 199.50. any price break this level i'll consider weekly breakout and potential to test new S and R. For now, to test 200.80 it need to break 202.94 (weekly pivot). also this week boe and Usd rate maybe will bring some big movement for us. I still consider sell is main priority regarding to FA analysis and TA analysis...

this week, we have major R in the upper level 208.80 -211.60 , i'll strongly consider sell this area if have any bearish pattern, for now i still looking for medium S at 204.50 -205, if bulllish pattern above this level, i think price it more bias to upward to test 208.80, nevertheless , below 204.50 price is going to test 202.90 -203.00 and break down this level we 'll see 200.50 -199.50 than 197.50 -196.30

last week very interesting trade, it look like was expected 208.80 is hard to broke last week, so i sell in that area 208.80. This week Gbpjpy range maybe from 208.80 - 202.80. all depends on data that will be announce this week particularly ISM, ADP and NFP, if they are too bad, i think 200.80 is not possible to hit, nevertheless, if data not really clear to show movement, 203.00 maybe is a good landing for this week before continue climbing up to test 211.60. Also this month, many big companies will show up their lost/ profit statement for Q2.... I'll monitor closely for all those news. I believe all these news can make big effect to the market particularly form US and Japan big companies...i'll try to update the info from time to time .. see laterr

this week gj trade very tight. it have very strong support at 211.10, 210.50 and sma5 weekly 209.77. in other hand, it also have very strong R at 211.90 -212.20. for now it look more to move up side. i prefer to add some buy if daily price close above 212.20. furthermore, if price break 209.77 and below i'll looking for bearish and i'll find some reason for that move...and maybe sell is necessary. i think the range for gj this week is between 211.00 -216.30....

The Most Profitable Traders
I thought I would post this here due to the value behind it, as I believe there are a lot of traders that could benefit from basic information such as this. I've posted it elsewhere in ForexFactory as well.

The below list comprises a number of different observations of myself and others through experience working with traders of all shapes and sizes, and is equally relevant to all. Some of the information is rehashed and/or might sound cliche, but here it is:

They are experienced – Probably the most horrifying and worst myth shot out to anyone considering trading for a living is that you will compound millions in an extremely short amount of time. The only true way to make every day profitable comes through experience, and countless hours learning is crucial to longevity of success.

They know the damage they are capable of – Notice I didn’t say potential or profits here. The best traders I know of understand their limits, and seem to focus more on what can go wrong than what can go right. They are not easily convinced of lucrative outcomes, and have a very high sense of self-awareness.

They trade to make money, not to be right – They understand the strengths and possible pitfalls of what it is they do for a living, and use that knowledge to curb their emotional output.

They have an edge and know how to use it – They understand that without it they wouldn’t last long

They have a gameplan, and follow it explicitly – Each trade is planned and opportunities are scouted for before any trading takes place. They steer away from the killers of all killers: overtrading.

They manage risk – Regardless of how much conviction they have on a trade, they will still do what they can to avoid the potential of any losses and understand rule #1 about trading: anything can happen.

They work obsessively – They follow each turn, each piece of info that comes out in regards to their trade, and follow any underlying information relevant to failure or success.

They only access the best information – Information rules in trading, and having some of the best translates to money. Using the wrong information leads to failure.

They think about the trade, not the money behind it - Focusing on money can destroy your means to objectively assess the trade itself.

They are constantly learning - Just when you think you know it all about trading, a new curveball gets thrown your way, not to mention there are continued means and methods to be learned about making money. Even the most highly successful trader I ever knew, a multi-billion dollar portfolio manager, has a team of fundamentalists and technicians come in to train and retrain himself and his traders.

They are active – Activity sparks creativity, a very crucial part of trading.

They have patience – They understand that the money will come, but everything needs to be in place, first.
Last edited by BillyRayValentine, Today 5:07pm.

ej update...i'll consider buy if all that rules complete...especially whenever qqe 4h cross up and cs patern form bullish area in that 61.8% ( golden ratio). i aspect price going to test the highest and maybe create the new highest if all that formation really happen..nevertheless if...the formation fail to creat ..i think bearish side is more consider for sell

just my SS tonight...

close all position for tonight....hehehe going to sleep...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

How to Recover from a Bad Trade
http://www.thegearedinvestor.com/images/stewie.png

Everyone has had a day where they were following their well planned system, and then they walked away from the computer only to find a horrible loss waiting to greet them when they get home. One bad trade in forex, or any other trading for that matter, has the ability to wipe out days or weeks of hard earned profits for a trader. So how do you rebound from an ordeal so emotionally sickening and almost degrading?

My experience in the market has provided me with joy and pain that I didn't know was possible just by playing the financial markets. I have had my share of ups and downs to arrive at the system, and more importantly, the trading mentality that I rely on today. I offer you the following insight into how I cope with a disaster of a trade.


1. Do not get into a new trade just to avenge the one that smited you.

Trading just to be in the market is one of the worst revenge strategies that you could ever employ. Sure you want to get back at the market for doing you wrong. But getting back in the market just to be there is not the way. I stated in a post earlier that 'the more I trade, the less I trade'. And that statement could not be more true than in this situation.

2. Do not start to doubt your system.

If you've been in the game long enough to have a system, then you have probably chosen a system that is profitable in your hands. Many people have a bad day of trading and start wondering if their system is what is wrong. I'm here to bring you some bad news: You're going to have losing trades. I know you're surprised. Me? No way! If this game were easy, we would all be rich and I would not be writing this for you to read. Should you tweak your system periodically to continue to learn and improve your trading style? Of course. But don't let one instince wipe out your market drive.

3. Do learn from your mistakes.

I really like my trading style after several years of hard work and long nights. But I am still a humble enough man to know that my mistakes will get the best of me every now and again. I simply take these mistakes, file them in the back of my mind, and avoid them the next time around. This might be something as simple as remembering to look at the 1 day charts, or checking to see if there is any big looming news that I might want to let happen before I get into a trade. Whatever the case, mistakes that are made again will eat at your psyche as much as it will your bank.

4. Remember that there will always be another trade.

Every one of us has used hindsight in a negative way in our trading. I still do this, and I have been working more on my trading psychology than anything these days. The old, 'I knew I should have entered that trade!' comment will drive you insane. It will eat at you while you are having dinner with your wife and your mind should be miles away from any kind of currency other than paying for the bill. Forex traders in generally are a greedy bunch of people. I think it comes from having leverage, and knowing that the swings can potentially earn huge amounts of money. This greed makes us always want to be right, and hindsight then creeps in. I can tell you one thing about my trading: If I'm on an unbelievable run of successful trades, I tell myself that it's too good to be true and I prepare for the lumps that will follow.

5. Remember that you're not perfect, walk away, and go do something you enjoy.

Some trades if they get away from you could drive a man to drinking. And while the point of any market is to make money so that you can enjoy the fruits of life, no investing should make a man miserable. When this feeling starts to creep in and changes your trading mentality, it's time to walk away. This is true for most things in life when they become frustrating. When I'm on the driving range trying to fine-tune my swing, there is a certain point where I hit a wall where progress is not being made. I am now mature enough to realize this and walk away before my beautiful day of golf starts to seem like a job. The same has to be true with trading. And this holds true even if you are a professional trader in a 24 hour market. I know a friend that everytime he makes a bad trade takes his girlfriend out to a nice restaraunt. He does this because it is something he enjoys, it gets him away from the trading station, and he realizes that when things are going well he is going to neglect her by not spending the time she needs with him. Fortunately, he is a decent trader, so neither of them have been getting too fat!

I hope this gives you an idea of the damage control methods that I employ after a disappointing trade. What methods do you use to keep you on the right track towards trading success?


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