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Intra Day Yen - Naked

  • #841
  • May 11, 2008 10:14am May 11, 2008 10:14am
Quoting SeekingLight
Well no, swings. But I meant the DZ = being the range which seemed to lead into a "long or short" decision type of thing.
I'm not yet very clear of what's really going on is the thing probably

The DZ is one tool in my decision making process.


Well, yes, but I don't ever do anything on pure movement alone if there isn't some PA to go with it and usually there's only 1-2 "main" fibs on large TF outlining an area where to look for it..i.e. what I mean is the fibs are just one of many hints like s/r and TLs are, whereas what's actually traded is other stuff, which is why I'm curious about what's being done here.


Agreed, if you look back thru a few of my charts, you will see that I normally have a couple of other S&R levels shown - sometimes for clarity they are omitted. Likewise for clarity I try to just show 1 set of fibs / timeframe and post the chart that shows the clearest picture. I also monitor and have similar charts up for GU, UJ, Swissy and the Dow / S&P - all of these have input into my decision making.

I might take a gander, but it seems Skunny's at least is missing a clear and concise "abstract"(i.e. summary) to orient oneself by - or so it seems many have complained
Whilst I do thank Skunny for putting me on the road to Naked Trading I found his lack of follow up frustrating and early on in his thread I started this one in an attempt to show my interpretation of his cryptic comments, which can be very confusing to newbies. Despite PMs and emails to him, I have never received any reply either confirming or denying my interpretation.


For those needing a more detailed explaination, I would suggest that they read this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50767
Bobokus is a very experienced trader who I understand taught Skunny about fibonacci. That thread is continually updated with real time trades, comments and help and is real example IMO of what is best in FF.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #842
  • May 12, 2008 1:19am May 12, 2008 1:19am
Good Morning. Since the bounce following Friday's sell off, there have been several Sell signals from inside the DZ. However, so far, these have failed to make new lows and the higher low off the mid pivot line at 200.29 warns of the possibility of a larger retracement - TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #843
  • May 12, 2008 1:25am May 12, 2008 1:25am
Down to the 5m for a narrower fib and the tweezers / rail road tracks around the Frankfurt Open have shown a buy as price failed to continue down into the DZ and is now above the Daily Pivot.

IMO its best to wait to see the action after the London Open in 40 mins.

Mondays can be difficult days to trade as the market searches for direction...
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #844
  • May 12, 2008 2:25am May 12, 2008 2:25am
At present, UJ is the main driving force pulling GJ up. Its now into the DZ on its hourly chart, so its action over the next few hours is important. The Swissy is also rallying - and has now reached its 50% retrace of its last fall on the hourly chart.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #845
  • May 12, 2008 2:42am May 12, 2008 2:42am
It doesn't get any clearer than this. You really do have to love the 50% retraces! Take some profit on the long off the 5 min and and wait for some confirmation that the 50% is going to hold before thinking of a sell.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #846
  • May 12, 2008 4:58am May 12, 2008 4:58am
As we now know, the narrower range fib only stalled GJ and with cable's positive news - which gave it a 100 pip boost - GJ is now into the wider - 200 pip - DZ on this fib.

I had kept some of my position open and also took an add on from the inside bar break out off my 30 min chart - that quickly hit my 100 pip target http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Currently, cable has stalled at its 9600 resistance - also 50% fib at 1.9605. Whilst the Swissy stalled at its 50% fib and UJ in the bottom of its DZ, they are both trying to move north again. This could be an interesting US session.
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  • #847
  • May 13, 2008 1:23am May 13, 2008 1:23am
Cable has given a Sell Signal, breaking down out of its hourly DZ after peaking at 9630, 25 pips above its 50% retrace.

UJ has held in a tight range around the bottom of its hourly DZ. However, the Swissy did manage to give a Sell Signal as it too broke south from its DZ. It is now in a wedge with support from a higher low TL at 1.0410 and resistance from a steep downtrend line at 466.

Which ever way swissy breaks, UJ will follow.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #848
  • May 13, 2008 1:29am May 13, 2008 1:29am
All of the above has left GJ in a tight range, but still held inside the gann down trending channel. It has finally broken down out of its DZ, but needs to break under its Daily Pivot at 202.28 to confirm the move.

The UK CPI data is due at 4:30 am EST - 2 hours time.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #849
  • May 13, 2008 1:40am May 13, 2008 1:40am
Quoting Islander
Whilst I do thank Skunny for putting me on the road to Naked Trading I found his lack of follow up frustrating

For those needing a more detailed explaination, I would suggest that they read this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50767
Thanks for taking the time to reply and indulging me

I'll have a look-see there as well. I've always liked Fibs and market symmetry as an idea, but in practice more complex things like that always seemed a looooooooot of work just to get something to "fit", whereas retracements and projections are a very simple and quick tool I like to use.

So maybe there's an idea or two that will be interesting along those lines, I'll check it out.

Thanks
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #850
  • May 13, 2008 1:42am May 13, 2008 1:42am
Issy,

My 1H intra-day fibs are showing some signs of possible strength to the upside.
Cable is bouncing off of it's lower support level
UJ holding above its upper support level
GJ still holding above its upper DZ zone.....
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trading naked.......
  • #851
  • May 13, 2008 2:00am May 13, 2008 2:00am
Good Morning Pip - agreed, I was just posting this chart elsewhere - its got the 50% and DP to break. Also, Cable's now on its 500 level support and Swissy / UJ are both sideways....TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #852
  • May 13, 2008 2:41am May 13, 2008 2:41am
Quoting SeekingLight
Thanks for taking the time to reply and indulging me

I'll have a look-see there as well. I've always liked Fibs and market symmetry as an idea, but in practice more complex things like that always seemed a looooooooot of work just to get something to "fit", whereas retracements and projections are a very simple and quick tool I like to use.

So maybe there's an idea or two that will be interesting along those lines, I'll check it out.

Thanks
You're welcome - and I agree about the KISS principle - for me, the retracement into the DZ plus the daily pivots and then watching Price Action around these levels are all that's needed.

I dont get too fixated about fibs - they're just another tool and neither do I trade breakouts - that's too late and too dangerous...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #853
  • May 13, 2008 12:34pm May 13, 2008 12:34pm
Early in the US session cable failed to break lower and I bought the bounce up off the S1 pivot at 9437.

Now I'm waiting to see cable's reaction to its 9500 level and the 50% retrace on this chart. I'm starting to think that the BOE may not be able to cut rates for some time due to the inflationary pressures and that could lead to a larger rally in cable.....TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #854
  • May 13, 2008 1:30pm May 13, 2008 1:30pm
My thoughts from the 15 m chart......

The left fib is drawn across the whole of yesterdays range of ~360 pips and earlier today GJ retraced to the bottom of the Decision Zone (61.8%) - aslo S1.

The rally from there allowed the center set of fibs to be drawn over the tighter 240 pip range and that rally retraced to just above the 50% and close to the 203 level.

The right side fib has a 120 pip range and GJ has already retraced into the DZ and given a continuation buy on its exit. Now we wait to see IF GJ can break out to new highs.

If it cant, then I would remove the right fib and move the center fib up to the latest high and work off that as during the Asian Session the range is normally less than the combined Europe & US sessions that we are just completing.

Just my opinion!
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1210703031

__________________
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #855
  • May 14, 2008 1:41am May 14, 2008 1:41am

GJ Hourly fib range from the last move showing support has held, UJ still bullish from good US retail sales news earlier today. Cable could still spoil the party for GJ though.......

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trading naked.......
  • #856
  • Edited 2:31am May 14, 2008 1:46am | Edited 2:31am
Current chart - a clear buy yesterday afternoon as GJ pulled back into its DZ and quickly reversed north again. Not a convincing move with GJ holding at the weekly pivot level.

Now in Frankies Hour its having a second attempt and I've already taken partial profits as the Swissy has turned lower and thus UJ is unlikely to break its 105 resistance area.

Cable is drifting in the bottom of its current range - I took nice profits yesterday when it failed to break above 9500.

Edit: LOL - the Brits bought the dollar, swissy and thus UJ up, euro and cable down. Result for GJ - conflict = sideways chop whilst we wait to see which of these moves has more legs.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #857
  • May 14, 2008 4:49am May 14, 2008 4:49am
The rally was 196 pips before failing just under the 205 level - plenty of opportunities to bank pips there.

I took a sell based on swissy's PA and benefited greatly from cables drop....

Cable has just dropped after the "buy the rumour, sell the news" type of move - nice signals there too and it hit its prior low 9361 before bouncing and I also had shorts there.

Now I'll watch the action around the latest DZ before entering again
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #858
  • May 14, 2008 5:28am May 14, 2008 5:28am
Wow Islander, do you ever lose? If you get a chance, could you post some entries showing stop areas and where you took profit, or moved stop to BE. This would really be beneficial to those trying to learn this methodology.
I understand this takes time to do, so no worries if you do not have that.
Cheers,
Steve
  • #859
  • May 14, 2008 5:39am May 14, 2008 5:39am
Quoting steveshutts
Wow Islander, do you ever lose? If you get a chance, could you post some entries showing stop areas and where you took profit, or moved stop to BE. This would really be beneficial to those trying to learn this methodology.
I understand this takes time to do, so no worries if you do not have that.
Cheers,
Steve
...i've been thinking this too...to get a better feel for decision making within the DZ before entry (especially on the 5min setups) would be great to see more or less as it happens....also appreciate the demand on time to do this and the thread may not be the most practical medium to use.

Good work Islander
  • #860
  • May 14, 2008 5:47am May 14, 2008 5:47am
Quoting steveshutts
Wow Islander, do you ever lose? If you get a chance, could you post some entries showing stop areas and where you took profit, or moved stop to BE. This would really be beneficial to those trying to learn this methodology.
I understand this takes time to do, so no worries if you do not have that.
Cheers,
Steve
LOL Steve - yes I loose, usually from poor trading rather than a problem with the methodology and I post the moves, not my trades. At present I rarely use stops and dont hold overnight - for me that's say 5pm EDT till 1am EDT - hence I was in and out of the last swing that I posted. I'm also making other trades not posted so trying to remember and take more time here is difficult.

If you read a few pages you'll soon get the idea of what I do, then just run a few weeks as a backtest - but following in real time is by far the best way to go -IMO.
Trading Levels with WRBs
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