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WaveTrade

  • #321
  • Jan 18, 2007 4:56pm Jan 18, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting monarch

It just seems like when you think the Cable is going to slow, it just keeps pushing upwards. I do not know what it is going to take to stop this push, but we are now at the 1.9749 mark that caused a stall twice. If tomorrow was the top out day at 1.9749, that would make each time 17 days intervals.

The only other thing above is 1.9840-46 high, which I am looking for on the Monthly to see if we will form a double top Pin Bar.

I originally thought we would stall at 1.9700, I still expect the slow down should to be this week, and that would set us up for a downward cooling off period next week that is much needed right now.

We will watch for your results.
I counted the Day Intervals on the 4Hr and 8HR - The actual dates were 12/20/06 1.9847 Top
1/02/07 1.9849 Top (18 days)
1/18/07 1.9877 Top (16 days so far - Saturday will be 18 days)
  • #322
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:12pm Jan 18, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting monarch

It just seems like when you think the Cable is going to slow, it just keeps pushing upwards. I do not know what it is going to take to stop this push, but we are now at the 1.9749 mark that caused a stall twice. If tomorrow was the top out day at 1.9749, that would make each time 17 days intervals.

The only other thing above is 1.9840-46 high, which I am looking for on the Monthly to see if we will form a double top Pin Bar.

I originally thought we would stall at 1.9700, I still expect the slow down should to be this week, and that would set us up for a downward cooling off period next week that is much needed right now.

We will watch for your results.
I am not oozing with confidence in this trade! The last few days I have had mixed signals as the closing price was in the mid range of my channel. I had a short signal to mid 94's as well as a long signal to your 9846..because it was mixed, we stay out! Now we have the signal leaning short, but barely! Looking into the Elliott pattern we are in or near the end of the Bwave..time wise we had 23 trading days in the Awave and should be striving for at least 11-12 (50%) days in the Bwave before the turn, even with the extension beyond 78%fib. We are now at 10 days, therefore I can see another push up for at least a day or two, only a guideline!...Like I said, I hope I am wrong...but then again, it will help the E/U long trade I am also in.

Cheers,
NP
  • #323
  • Edited 9:30am Jan 19, 2007 12:17am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting Northpro
January 10, 2007

Wave Daily Signal
Trade #38

EUR/USD
Long

Entry: 2939
Target: 3076
Stop: 2802

At 50% to TP (3007), we will move stop to +20 in the money. I anticipate this pair hitting the 2900 level before the retrace up begins.

Potential: 137 pips
Reward/Risk: 1 to 1
Success Rate: 81%

Northpro
January 19, 2007

Re: Trade #38

I am taking a proactive position here...because I am going to bed! We came with 4 pips from the 50% mark and are hovering now just below that, therefore I am cheating a bit here and moving the stop +20 in the money..assuming the London session will bring it to the 3007 level.

EUR/USD
Long

Entry: 2939
Target: 3076
New Stop: 2959 (+20 pips in the money)

Potential: 137 pips
Reward/Risk: 0 risk
Success Rate: 81%

Northpro
  • #324
  • Jan 19, 2007 12:52am Jan 19, 2007 12:52am
Quoting Northpro
I am not oozing with confidence in this trade! The last few days I have had mixed signals as the closing price was in the mid range of my channel. I had a short signal to mid 94's as well as a long signal to your 9846..because it was mixed, we stay out! Now we have the signal leaning short, but barely! Looking into the Elliott pattern we are in or near the end of the Bwave..time wise we had 23 trading days in the Awave and should be striving for at least 11-12 (50%) days in the Bwave before the turn, even with the extension beyond 78%fib. We are now at 10 days, therefore I can see another push up for at least a day or two, only a guideline!...Like I said, I hope I am wrong...but then again, it will help the E/U long trade I am also in.

Cheers,
NP
There should be a better look at the turn once this final London session completes. I think your count is accurate, and I have been looking for the "C" corrective to happen before we hit the 1.9700-25 area. The top on "B", would be 1.9777 if we hold tight tonight, but if we go up and pass 1.9840-46 mark, then we would still be in the Wave "5".

Once we start the "C" down, it should be a nice drop, then when it has finalized, we would be complete in the EW Wave series, and ready for a new upward movement possibly.

Correct me if I am incorrect, thanks, and rest well.
  • #325
  • Jan 19, 2007 9:29am Jan 19, 2007 9:29am
Quoting Northpro
January 19, 2007

Re: Trade #38

I am taking a proactive position here...because I am going to bed! We came with 4 pips from the 50% mark and are hovering now just below that, therefore I am cheating a bit here and moving the stop +20 in the money..assuming the London session will bring it to the 3007 level.

EUR/USD
Long

Entry: 2939
Target: 3076
New Stop: 2959 (+20 pips in the money)

Potential: 137 pips
Reward/Risk: 0 risk
Success Rate: 81%

Northpro
January 19, 2007

Not exactly what I had hoped for...

Re. Trade #38
EUR/USD

Adjusted Stop: 2959 hit
Gain: +20 pips

Total Realized January: +254 pips
Total Realized since start: +1132 pips
Success Rate to Date: 66.7%

Northpro
  • #326
  • Jan 26, 2007 9:20am Jan 26, 2007 9:20am
Quoting Northpro
January 18, 2007

Spread Signal
Trade #41

GBP/USD
Short

Entry: 9742
Target: 9535
Stop: 9949

At 50% to TP (9639), we will move stop to +20 pips in the money. At 85% to TP (9566) we will move to +60 pips in the money.

Potential: 207 pips
Reward/Risk: 1 to 1 initially
Success Rate: 84%

I have a signal, so I take the trade, however I do think the GBP still has a little room to move up before the turn south...hope I am wrong.

Northpro
January 26, 2007

re Trade #41
GBP/USD
Short

Well with all the strong US data we went past the 50% and the 85% point to target, so we will lock in profit and move the stop.

Entry: 9742
Target: 9535
New Stop: 9682 (+60 pips in the money)

Potential: 207 (minimum now is 60)
RR: no risk

Northpro
  • #327
  • Jan 26, 2007 9:52am Jan 26, 2007 9:52am
I have to give Kudos where Kudos belong.

When you entered this position we both felt very concerned about the possibility of a Short forming, but as this week progressed, your position became very valid.

The Target Price at 1.9535 is within reach, actually we came within 23 pips of this today. I would expect some more downward movement today or by Open Market on Sunday.

This will prove that once again your very accurate with your projections and wave count.

I applaud you!
  • #328
  • Jan 26, 2007 11:13am Jan 26, 2007 11:13am
Quoting monarch
I have to give Kudos where Kudos belong.

When you entered this position we both felt very concerned about the possibility of a Short forming, but as this week progressed, your position became very valid.

The Target Price at 1.9535 is within reach, actually we came within 23 pips of this today. I would expect some more downward movement today or by Open Market on Sunday.

This will prove that once again your very accurate with your projections and wave count.

I applaud you!
Thanks Monarch.

I think the initial concern was valid, and as we saw a higher entry would have been ideal. That being said, the idea is not to get every possible pip, just a few for the little guys!

On another note, it's a bit late, but attached is the performance summary for Wavetrade Daily from late August to the end of November, 2006. Our EUR trades were most dissappointing, we are looking into the performance. At this point we believe it's just a bad patch as we normally produce a success rate greater than 80% on the EUR. Overall, we are on target with success rate and capital percentage gain.

Northpro
Attached File(s)
File Type: xml Wavetrade Performance Summary.xml   13 KB | 413 downloads
  • #329
  • Jan 26, 2007 11:54am Jan 26, 2007 11:54am
Quoting Northpro
Thanks Monarch.
Quoting Northpro

I think the initial concern was valid, and as we saw a higher entry would have been ideal. That being said, the idea is not to get every possible pip, just a few for the little guys!

On another note, it's a bit late, but attached is the performance summary for Wavetrade Daily from late August to the end of November, 2006. Our EUR trades were most dissappointing, we are looking into the performance. At this point we believe it's just a bad patch as we normally produce a success rate greater than 80% on the EUR. Overall, we are on target with success rate and capital percentage gain.

Northpro


As you know I use to trade many of the currency pairs in my past. Actually I use to have 7-10 pairs trading at one time, and I was somewhat successful.

I was running my self to the ground trying to keep up, so I sat myself down and said "Self - you better get it together" from that day I purposed to trade only one pair.

I read and searched, and came down to the Cable. It has proven to be the most reliable in my analysis, and my stress level has decreased 75%.

This last few weeks I have worked up a complete new style of trading, even though I study as if I am trading hours upon hours.

My average time in the market ranges from 5 Min. to 1 Hour and 5 Min.

This has enabled me to be more disciplined with my entry and exit points.

You might have had a bad quarter, but overall, your system proved itself to me somewhat. I have kept up with your GBP positions and appreciate your continual efforts to perfect your system.

Thanks
  • #330
  • Jan 26, 2007 12:34pm Jan 26, 2007 12:34pm
Quoting monarch

You might have had a bad quarter, but overall, your system proved itself to me somewhat. I have kept up with your GBP positions and appreciate your continual efforts to perfect your system.

Thanks
I guess it is a matter of how you measure a bad quarter. I didn't really have a bad quarter, in my mind, just a bad quarter on the EUR/USD pair. Like I said, I am in this for the long run. My success rate is 60%, this may not be amazing, but I know it's consistant and is very close to my past success rate. This is what is expected with my system, with the wins I know I will have a fair share of losses. Some guys are on fire with thier systems at present, I applaud them and wish them nothing but the greatest continued success. It's not a competition for me, I do follow a lot of posts on the forum, and am continuing to learn great things from many fellow traders, for there is always room to perfect a system. For the time being, I hope to continue to grow my account capital by 56% or so every three months, which is doubling every 6 months. Do the math. I know it's realistic, and achievable. I've been at this for a couple of years now and have tried in the past to swing for the fence on every trade, that's not realistic, and ends badly. Ninety five percent of traders wash out, which I can completely believe from reading various posts on this forum and others. Too many are trying to become millionaires in weeks or months from a $300 mini account, they have no clue on technical analysis, fundimentals, money managment (the big one in my opinion), most do not log their trades, or have a record of performance. Many, instead of developing a style of their own, just get signals from the "hot" trader of the month. This should be treated like a business, not a game. If one wants results, they have to be serious about this business, treat it like a business, and be realistic. Thus far, I am more than happy with the overall results. There will be better quarters and there will be worse quarters, in the meantime lets enjoy the journey and see where we are in a few years.

Cheers,
NP
  • #331
  • Jan 26, 2007 12:43pm Jan 26, 2007 12:43pm
Quoting Northpro
I guess it is a matter of how you measure a bad quarter. I didn't really have a bad quarter, in my mind, just a bad quarter on the EUR/USD pair. Like I said, I am in this for the long run. My success rate is 60%, this may not be amazing, but I know it's consistant and is very close to my past success rate. This is what is expected with my system, with the wins I know I will have a fair share of losses. Some guys are on fire with thier systems at present, I applaud them and wish them nothing but the greatest continued success. It's not a competition for me, I do follow a lot of posts on the forum, and am continuing to learn great things from many fellow traders, for there is always room to perfect a system. For the time being, I hope to continue to grow my account capital by 56% or so every three months, which is doubling every 6 months. Do the math. I know it's realistic, and achievable. I've been at this for a couple of years now and have tried in the past to swing for the fence on every trade, that's not realistic, and ends badly. Ninety five percent of traders wash out, which I can completely believe from reading various posts on this forum and others. Too many are trying to become millionaires in weeks or months from a $300 mini account, they have no clue on technical analysis, fundimentals, money managment (the big one in my opinion), most do not log their trades, or have a record of performance. Many, instead of developing a style of their own, just get signals from the "hot" trader of the month. This should be treated like a business, not a game. If one wants results, they have to be serious about this business, treat it like a business, and be realistic. Thus far, I am more than happy with the overall results. There will be better quarters and there will be worse quarters, in the meantime lets enjoy the journey and see where we are in a few years.

Cheers,
NP
Completely agree & couldn't have put it better myself NP - hi by the way

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #332
  • Jan 30, 2007 8:56am Jan 30, 2007 8:56am
Quoting Northpro
January 26, 2007

re Trade #41
GBP/USD
Short

Well with all the strong US data we went past the 50% and the 85% point to target, so we will lock in profit and move the stop.

Entry: 9742
Target: 9535
New Stop: 9682 (+60 pips in the money)

Potential: 207 (minimum now is 60)
RR: no risk

Northpro
January 30, 2007

Re. Trade #41
GBP/USD

Adjusted Stop: 9682 hit
Gain: +60 pips

Total Realized January: +314 pips
Total Realized since start: +1192 pips
Success Rate to Date: 67.5%

Northpro
  • #333
  • Jan 31, 2007 9:32am Jan 31, 2007 9:32am
January 31, 2007

January recap:

I will be gone for the day, so I'll post this now assuming nothing crazy will happen for the balance of the trading day.

We had 6 Trades of which 5 have been completed, 5 winners and 0 loser.

January Gain/Loss: +314
Total gain since start: +1192

Realized Pips
Trade 36: 20
Trade 37: 20
Trade 38: 20
Trade 39: incomplete
Trade 40: 194
Trade 41: 60
Total: +314

Even though we left a lot of pips on the table with the Trade 41 GBP/USD, we stuck to the rules. It may have only worked out satisfactory for us taking 60 pips instead of the original 207, sticking to the game plan is paramount, for more often than not these situations work in our favor, that’s why the filter is built in. All in all, not a bad start to the new year, and considerably better than the previous two months.

Northpro
  • #334
  • Edited Feb 8, 2007 1:13am Feb 7, 2007 9:09pm | Edited Feb 8, 2007 1:13am
Well nothing to report here, just didn't like being on page 2 (joking). Since fixme1too changed his avatar picture to one of himself, I thought I'd change mine to one of me...lol. Cheers Fix!

Still in the usd/chf short trade, possible setup for a g/u and aus/usd coming up in the next day or two, very quiet time right now for Wavetrade. Remember there are three types of trades; Long trade, Short trade, and No trade!

Later,
Northpro
  • #335
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:17pm Feb 12, 2007 4:17pm
Feb 12, 2007

It has been a couple of weeks since our last signal, so patience is a virtue. As it is, this signal on a rating of 5 is about a 3 in confidence at best, but thats just my gut feeling, which has no part in the system or the signals taken, so here we go.

Wave Signal
Trade #42

GBP/USD
Long

Entry: 9477
Target: 9621 initially
Stop: 9346

We may move the target to a r3 value if trends indicate in the next few days.
Potential: 144 pips (initially)
Reward/Risk: 1.1 to 1
Success Rate: 64%

Northpro
  • #336
  • Feb 14, 2007 9:07am Feb 14, 2007 9:07am
Quoting Northpro
Feb 12, 2007

It has been a couple of weeks since our last signal, so patience is a virtue. As it is, this signal on a rating of 5 is about a 3 in confidence at best, but thats just my gut feeling, which has no part in the system or the signals taken, so here we go.

Wave Signal
Trade #42

GBP/USD
Long

Entry: 9477
Target: 9621 initially
Stop: 9346

We may move the target to a r3 value if trends indicate in the next few days.
Potential: 144 pips (initially)
Reward/Risk: 1.1 to 1
Success Rate: 64%

Northpro
Feb 14, 2007

Re:Wave Signal
Trade #42

GBP/USD
Long

Moving TP as the tide has changed and now favouring further long. Moving Stop to +20pips in the money.

Entry: 9477
Target: 9694
Stop: 9497

Potential: 217 pips (+20 gauranteed)
Reward/Risk: no risk
Success Rate: 64%

Northpro
  • #337
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:13am Feb 14, 2007 10:13am
Excellent work, Northpro. I admire you trading approach. It reminds me of an old phrase by Jesse Livermore which I sometimes forget :
" I never made money by trading, I made my money by sitting tight "

  • #338
  • Feb 14, 2007 11:08am Feb 14, 2007 11:08am
Hey northpro,
Im really interested in learning about the wave trade theory. Is there any websites our books that you can refer to me that could teach me how to properly understnad this theory.

Thanks.
Your system looks great by the way. Keep up the good work.
  • #339
  • Feb 15, 2007 3:57am Feb 15, 2007 3:57am
Quoting Northpro
Feb 14, 2007

Re:Wave Signal
Trade #42

GBP/USD
Long

Moving TP as the tide has changed and now favouring further long. Moving Stop to +20pips in the money.

Entry: 9477
Target: 9694
Stop: 9497

Potential: 217 pips (+20 gauranteed)
Reward/Risk: no risk
Success Rate: 64%

Northpro
Feb 15, 2007

Re. Trade #42
GBP/USD

We don't normally trade news, but we certainly do not ignore it either. The very poor retail sales report resulted in a plummetting of the pair in excess of 100 pips. I therefore decided to close the trade manually until the direction can be re-evaluated.

Original stop: 9497 hit
Manually closed: 9577
Gain: +100 pips

Total Realized Febuary: +100 pips
Total Realized since start: +1292 pips
Success Rate to Date: 68.3%

Northpro
  • #340
  • Feb 15, 2007 5:21pm Feb 15, 2007 5:21pm
Feb 15, 2007

A late posting for the day, but not much has happened since the close.

Spread Signal
Trade #43

USD/CAD
Long

Entry: 1632
Target: 1758
Stop: 1570

Potential: 125 pips
Reward/Risk: 2 to 1
Success Rate: 69%

Northpro
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