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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,601
  • May 10, 2008 6:03pm May 10, 2008 6:03pm
mh trader,
I had the understanding that 7 bars was to allow time for price to move, and the rescue not to be taken to early only to move farther away.
Maybe someone can clarify this.
  • #2,602
  • May 10, 2008 6:24pm May 10, 2008 6:24pm
Quoting notme32
hello all, so whats time is best for dance with the market ?
is rescue mean hedge ? locking ?

regards
notme32,
Not to be rude, but if your asking that question your not prepared to dance even if the market was ready. If your truly interested you'll end up reading the thread a couple times to start with just to get the sense of whats being conveyed.
keep the faith
  • #2,603
  • May 10, 2008 10:52pm May 10, 2008 10:52pm
There are some people who consistently make money and do this for a living. Therefore, technical analysis can't be a fallacy. They don't control the market, therefore the only other possibility is that they understand it. You won't win every time obviously but there are strategies that are rather reliable and intelligently designed and profitable at the end of the day. They encompass many factors and indicators. People only disagree because they want a system that will work every time. That's a sign of impatience, a character flaw you need to avoid if you are trading.
  • #2,604
  • May 10, 2008 11:57pm May 10, 2008 11:57pm
Technical Analysis is a beautiful work of art on your monitor arrays, very lovely. A great painting of the market at the time and your drawn fibonaccis, gann fans, trend lines, MA's, EMA's, DiNapolis, Bollinger Bands etc, lovely painting of chaos theory on your charts its all lovely when you see that it works then its an ugly piece when it fails you once. Then off we go to make another painting in hopes that the market accepts our artwork and gives us pips for it. Nice.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #2,605
  • May 11, 2008 2:54am May 11, 2008 2:54am
i recommend all to use this great tool for trading simulations:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849

this way you can re-trade last year, month, day.. whatever. in a fast forward mode.

on another note while doing the simulations sometimes a badly timed rescue and another badly timed rescue can glue you to screen for 3 days till you manage your way out of it. it is very easy to overexpose yourself in the markets by trying to rescue a bad position.

that being said, with FTI's method/advice I could simulate trading for months on 5min charts with no losses.. so this has been a big psychological step up for me.
  • #2,606
  • Edited 4:21am May 11, 2008 4:07am | Edited 4:21am
Quoting lilpip
notme32,
Not to be rude, but if your asking that question your not prepared to dance even if the market was ready. If your truly interested you'll end up reading the thread a couple times to start with just to get the sense of whats being conveyed.
keep the faith
, thankyou first
second, everybody can dance ( ugly or beautiful)
.............
my question is simple :
what is best time ? answer pick the range from 1 to 24 ( i still dont know the best time) and i will try only trade(with my dance and sense) at your answer/choice(not until now)

rescue is hedge? or locking ? answer is yes or no , it is simple but i not get the answer.

the reason i ask is i am tired trade for 24 h in the past of 3 years. Buy, sell , calculate,locking then open, then locking again,watching, waitng, observ,read, learn, sleepwell only at weekend, etc etc...
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,607
  • May 11, 2008 5:33am May 11, 2008 5:33am
Sorry notme32, but you did get answers, just not the ones you wanted.
It took me 2 weeks to read this thread together with the recommended eBook type material. If you do this you will understand why you are getting these type of answers.
Good Trading
  • #2,608
  • May 11, 2008 5:59am May 11, 2008 5:59am
Quoting notme32
, thankyou first
second, everybody can dance ( ugly or beautiful)
.............
my question is simple :
what is best time ? answer pick the range from 1 to 24 ( i still dont know the best time) and i will try only trade(with my dance and sense) at your answer/choice(not until now)

rescue is hedge? or locking ? answer is yes or no , it is simple but i not get the answer.

the reason i ask is i am tired trade for 24 h in the past of 3 years. Buy, sell , calculate,locking then open, then locking again,watching, waitng, observ,read, learn, sleepwell only at weekend, etc etc...
The best time to trade is Europe time, which normally starts from GMT 5 till GMT 16. During this period of time, it has highest volitility.

Rescue is sort of "dollar averaging", which basically utilizing bounce-back or pullback with more positions with averaged better price to reduce the loss, some times the result could be small profit. But be careful not to turn rescue into loss-averaging which is one of the worst trading practices. Money management is the key. And in a straight trend, the resuce operation will be very dangerous.Of course if you are a good dancer i.e. you can capitalize small price movement say 30 pips it is OK.

David
  • #2,609
  • Edited 2:23am May 12, 2008 2:02am | Edited 2:23am
Dear BabeFX,

You are subscribed to the thread “Technical Analysis Fallacy” located
at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...9&goto=newpost.

TheWalrus has just replied to this thread.

Here is a copy of the post:
***************
There are some people who consistently make money and do this for a
living. Therefore, technical analysis can't be a fallacy. They don't
control the market, therefore the only other possibility is that they
understand it. You won't win every time obviously but there are strategies
that are rather reliable and intelligently designed and profitable at the
end of the day. They encompass many factors and indicators. People
only disagree because they want a system that will work every time. That's
a sign of impatience, a character flaw you need to avoid if you are
trading.
***************

There may be other replies, but you will not receive any more
notifications until you visit the thread again.

Sincerely,
FF


Walrus.

Don't miss the point.

Everybody who trades from a chart (whether covering the chart with numerous indicators or not) is using technical analysis.

Regards,

BabeFX.
  • #2,610
  • May 12, 2008 6:52am May 12, 2008 6:52am
Quoting BabeFX
Dear BabeFX,

You are subscribed to the thread “Technical Analysis Fallacy” located
at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...9&goto=newpost.

TheWalrus has just replied to this thread.

Here is a copy of the post:
***************
There are some people who consistently make money and do this for a
living. Therefore, technical analysis can't be a fallacy. They don't
control the market, therefore the only other possibility is that they
understand it. You won't win every time obviously but there are strategies
that are rather reliable and intelligently designed and profitable at the
end of the day. They encompass many factors and indicators. People
only disagree because they want a system that will work every time. That's
a sign of impatience, a character flaw you need to avoid if you are
trading.
***************

There may be other replies, but you will not receive any more
notifications until you visit the thread again.

Sincerely,
FF


Walrus.

Don't miss the point.

Everybody who trades from a chart (whether covering the chart with numerous indicators or not) is using technical analysis.

Regards,

BabeFX.
Ok, so if some people have long-term consistent success, than technical analysis isn't a fallacy. It's something that can be understood. That's all I was saying. If it was a fallacy, not a single person of mortal intelligence could reliably make money in Forex over the long term.
  • #2,611
  • May 12, 2008 7:40am May 12, 2008 7:40am
Quoting Green_David
The best time to trade is Europe time, which normally starts from GMT 5 till GMT 16. During this period of time, it has highest volitility.

Rescue is sort of "dollar averaging", which basically utilizing bounce-back or pullback with more positions with averaged better price to reduce the loss, some times the result could be small profit. But be careful not to turn rescue into loss-averaging which is one of the worst trading practices. Money management is the key. And in a straight trend, the resuce operation will be very dangerous.Of course if you are a good dancer i.e. you can capitalize small price movement say 30 pips it is OK.

David
Thankyou David,
so, rescue is danger , in trending . wow.......
but not danger in sideway right ?
Now i know my time............ Thankyou verymuch,

aud Sorry notme32, but you did get answers, just not the ones you wanted.
It took me 2 weeks to read this thread together with the recommended eBook type material. If you do this you will understand why you are getting these type of answers.

Aud, thankyou for your reply.
I follow read this thread since beginning until page39 post 582 where i ask some and was ignore... so i think it because i shoot stupid question maybe. But because my english so poor and need practige so i read everywhere included read this thread again. I hope i didnt ruin the rhytim of this thread.
BTW all the dance in the market is only 2 kind of step right ? Buy and sell

regards,
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,612
  • May 12, 2008 6:02pm May 12, 2008 6:02pm
Must be very difficult with the language thing. I find it hard enough sometime being from a different country that uses the same language. Especially the way times are expressed. I guess if they are in the US on a US forum that's fair enough, they say EST 1600, I just have to look up their profile to see which Country they are talking about. CMT goes in the too hard basket!

However to me GMT 5 is a time zone not a time. Europe, because of the UK and Germany, are the largest movers of FX and both have the same hours. Many consider this to be the best time to trade because their larger volumes are most likely to give a trending market and the least likely not to move the market. They open at 0800 GMT+0 (or just GMT), (now that they are both on 1 hours daylight savings) and a 9 hour secession would seem them close at 1700 GMT.

However this is not the answer to you question. (IMHO)

!/. It depends on which currency pairs you wish to trade. For example the AUD is often of little interest to Europe, Trading the AUD/JPY would carry more interest during the times when the Sydney and Tokyo exchanges are both open.
2/. This is not what fti is teaching. The time to trade depends on the study of the battlefield, including the trend, the romance of the 3 kingdoms, your understandung of the AOW (which takes many readings) and watching (and an understanding) of the candles, etc.

So even if this does see you mostly trading the European sessions, there would times to trade it and times not to trade it.

Sorry for giving your English a workout.
Good Trading
  • #2,613
  • May 12, 2008 7:17pm May 12, 2008 7:17pm
Quoting aud
... Europe, because of the UK and Germany, are the largest movers of FX and both have the same hours...
Im sorry. But German time is 1 hour ahead.
For example, now when I'm writing this:
Frankfurt (and whole Germany) is 02:16, Tue, May 13
and in London is: 01:16, Tue, May 13
and GMT is: 00:16, Tue, May 13

Rgs,

Textor
  • #2,614
  • May 12, 2008 8:59pm May 12, 2008 8:59pm
Quoting textor
Im sorry. But German time is 1 hour ahead.
For example, now when I'm writing this:
Frankfurt (and whole Germany) is 02:16, Tue, May 13
and in London is: 01:16, Tue, May 13
and GMT is: 00:16, Tue, May 13

Rgs,

Textor
Trading time is important...Yes...but do not forget that the three most important items are:

1. market structure....PA PA PA
2. you ...Mind set
3. capitalization...money management, size, skew

Without these the trading time would not help us...

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,615
  • May 12, 2008 10:05pm May 12, 2008 10:05pm
Quoting TheWalrus
Ok, so if some people have long-term consistent success, than technical analysis isn't a fallacy. It's something that can be understood. That's all I was saying. If it was a fallacy, not a single person of mortal intelligence could reliably make money in Forex over the long term.
What is a fallacy is this long convoluted thread. I use TA, and make profits every week.

I also DO NOT AVERAGE DOWN. I can't believe this many people get talked into it. Amazing.

I do however, wish all of you luck.....too dangerous for me. I will stick to my sorry slow, steady gains.
  • #2,616
  • May 12, 2008 10:11pm May 12, 2008 10:11pm
Quoting clockwork71
What is a fallacy is this long convoluted thread. I use TA, and make profits every week.

I also DO NOT AVERAGE DOWN. I can't believe this many people get talked into it. Amazing.

I do however, wish all of you luck.....too dangerous for me. I will stick to my sorry slow, steady gains.
it seems to me that you lack respect for any other types of approaches. It does show that you are stapled with an elitist mindset. Seriously i gained nothing from your post above and of course your intentions are clearly specified above too. You hoped to change more to become like you that is, fine by me. Now if I may, allow me to pass please. And Thanks, i hear you.
  • #2,617
  • May 12, 2008 10:20pm May 12, 2008 10:20pm
I just wanted to let everyone know that I just heard from fti. Whew, at least he is safe!!

He didn't go into specifics/details, but from what I gathered from how he put it in his email, it sounded health related. Seems he had a close call.

He said that he doesn't have the energy right now to get back on the forums, but will try to catch up as soon as he can.

LOL, he whipped me (and everyone else who is deviating from his basics), so that's a good sign!
  • #2,618
  • May 12, 2008 10:23pm May 12, 2008 10:23pm
Thanks,

Thats good that he is at least ok.
  • #2,619
  • May 12, 2008 10:23pm May 12, 2008 10:23pm
Quoting leighsww
I just wanted to let everyone know that I just heard from fti. Whew, at least he is safe!!

He didn't go into specifics/details, but from what I gathered from how he put it in his email, it sounded health related. Seems he had a close call.

He said that he doesn't have the energy right now to get back on the forums, but will try to catch up as soon as he can.

LOL, he whipped me (and everyone else who is deviating from his basics), so that's a good sign!
thank goodness! He's got alot to read tho, hope it doent shock him too much lol.
  • #2,620
  • May 12, 2008 10:38pm May 12, 2008 10:38pm
Please, let's not waste time and energy replying to those who disagree with fti's methodology. There's no point to it and it just ends up a battle back-and-forth taking up unnecessary post space, lol.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Not everyone can use fti's method to their benefit (it's a "pro's" method), so those who can will learn from fti's thread, and those who can't can move on to other threads.

Let's not give in to the need to defend or buck heads with those who oppose. Every opposing dialog has been dealt with already anyway. It's just not worth it to have to keep doing so, so let it go

Those who read this entire thread will make the decision for themselves on whether this method suits them or not.
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