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Attachments: 34 EMA Trading Strategy for newbie's :)
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34 EMA Trading Strategy for newbie's :)

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited 7:15am May 11, 2008 5:00am | Edited 7:15am
  •  VagyokC4
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 126 Posts
They say those who can... do... and those who can't... teach!

Then there are those of us who think deeply, and attempt to do both

Join me won't you, as I attempt to demonstrate and refine a very simple trading strategy that honestly speaking, I wish I had found before I ever started trading. Now most people find themselves on a path looking for the so called "Holy Grail" trading system. Some say it doesn't exists. Some spend their whole life looking for it... I say I think I have found it!

This strategy is intended to allow anyone to consistently make money in the markets especially those who are just starting out, and especially those who after losing money in the markets are looking for a simple effective way to profitability trade the markets. Once and for all

If you're like me, you skimmed over some really good material here at the factory, some of which I think is valuable, some of which I think is fluff, and maybe you even included some of it into your trading plans. (you do have a plan right?)

If so, chances are even better that after blowing up an account or two you come to the realization that by trying to do too much (IE, incorporating some of this.. and some of that...) you found yourself bleeding money either by slow drip, or gashing wound... Bottom line... the "trading system" was over-complicated.

Or maybe coming up with the trading plan is the problem. I know for me I didn't want to trade with a "real" plan, and made my plan up as the trade progressed. This unfortunately made me some BIG BIG money. (Luckily for me I was able to take out some of the profits to protect my initial investment... which allowed me to blow up a few accounts in my attempt to find the "holy grail" of trading systems and still be here to "play the game") -- when I say unfortunately I say this in jest because everything happens for a reason and I really feel blessed to have survived it all and learned so much about trading the markets along the way... (IE. I wouldn't' change a thing... playing with the house's money was made for learning )

When it comes to Holy Grails... or Moly Quails as they are referred to by some of the best here on FF... I've come to the realization the simple is always better. So if you're looking for a complicated fool proof system, you won't find it here... if on the other hand you are looking for a simple fool proof system keep reading...

Now keep in mind "simple" does NOT mean "easy" as with all things practice makes perfect... But still it should be simple With that said, here we are going to talk about a very simple system. One that if following properly will virtually guarantee success in just about any market. (Please be aware of all market risk-- all of which you assume should you attempt to take the possible trades posted here!!!)

I have followed many good threads on this board and many other boards, and the one thing that is consistent throughout is the amount of time and effort required to keep up on one of these forums especially when they start turning nasty... The one thing I do NOT have time for is the amount of hatred that goes on when one member starts to act childish. I would ask that we all behave in a civilized manner and keep the discussion and debate clean and pithy.

As with most GOOD threads on here, there is usually the thread starter (me) and those select few who are cosmically ready to sojourn (with me) over the river and through the woods. Then there are those who run into the thread, and are not quite ready so they move on, only to find themselves back here again once a cosmic cycle has completed. Remember everything happens for a reason

So this leads me to my first question... Who would like to sojourn with me along a journey for the "Holy Grail"?
  • Post #2
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  • May 11, 2008 6:02am May 11, 2008 6:02am
  •  [email protected] trader
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 730 Posts
maybe...use timeframe?
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Edited 7:19am May 11, 2008 6:43am | Edited 7:19am
  •  VagyokC4
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 126 Posts
I'm sure we've all heard of the trading truths before, to refresh up on them you can look here (http://www.ficiency.com/trading/trad...nkthrough.html).

I want to talk a little more about some Indubitable truths (some of which you may of heard before), that I have discovered along the way which we will use as the foundation for our journey (In no particular order) :

  1. Tools are tools and Indicators are Indicators.

    1. By tools I mean moving averages, pivot points, fib retracements / extensions, support and resistance lines and simple geometry.
    2. By indicators I mean anything that does some sort of mathematical calculation (plus, minus, multiply or divide) on any combination of either the open, high, low, or close of bar data and display it for your viewing pleasure.

  2. There are countless ways to make money in the market, but doing it successfully, consistently over long periods of time, no matter which way the market is moving is a key requirement of our "Holy Grail"

    1. I've seen plenty of systems that work in the short term, but fail in the long term.
    2. We must be the sailor, getting to our destination no matter which way the market winds are blowing.

  3. Trading is an odds based business - so you MUST ensure you have an edge and play the numbers. Don't be afraid to play the numbers! Just play them smart!
  4. A successful trader is one who has experienced both great reward and great loss.

    1. You can't expect to be a perfect trader UNTIL your emotions are invested in a trade, and you've experienced firsthand how your emotions lead you to losing your money and blowing up your account.
    2. You will not be a successful trader until you've made it through the five stages of loss and are at peace with ALL you've experienced... and learned from the experience!

  5. You are hard-wired for failure.

    1. Think about this... If we were hard-wired for success, we would ALL be successful. Instead we are wired just the opposite, and it's up to us to recognize this and adjust accordingly.

  6. Simplicity is the KEY

    1. For the purpose of our "Holy Grail" system, we will be looking to keep things simple. This means using TOOLS as opposed to indicators, and indicators as confirmation TOOLS.
    2. In plain English, we will attempt to remove ALL subjective thinking where two different people looking at the same data get different results. It should be as simple as 1 + 1 = 2 regardless of who is looking at it.

  7. By "Holy Grail" I do NOT mean a system that trades 100% and never loses.

    1. For the purpose of this system I define "Holy Grail" as a system that is simple and easy to follow and consistently makes profits.
    2. Making Profits is defined as your winning trades being greater than your losing trades each and every week.

I'm sure there are more and I may add to them as we go. If you have an comments / questions about any of them, please reference the number and we can discuss in more detail.

 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Edited 7:14am May 11, 2008 7:03am | Edited 7:14am
  •  VagyokC4
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 126 Posts
Here is a sample chart with three 34 EMA's of the HIGH, CLOSE, and LOW.

Your first assignment is to remove ALL form your chart and ONLY add this TOOL to your chart!

Pay special attention to the way price action looks when it gets entangled into the channel. Notice how PA (price action) looks when it breaks through from either the top down, or the bottom up. Notice how the channel tends to catch and contain PA and what kind of bounce price does when this happens.

Please tell me your observations...

For the record, we use the number 34 because of it's special FIB properties, and we use exponential moving average because we want to know the here and now and is best suited.

Attached you are looking at the latest bear movement on the GBPJPY H1 Chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: snapshot-27.png
Size: 116 KB
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • May 11, 2008 7:18am May 11, 2008 7:18am
  •  ForexRookie
  • | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Member | 409 Posts
Quoting VagyokC4
Disliked
Here is a sample chart with three 34 EMA's of the HIGH, CLOSE, and LOW.

Your first assignment is to remove ALL form your chart and ONLY add this TOOL to your chart!

Pay special attention to the way price action looks when it gets entangled into the channel. Notice how PA (price action) looks when it breaks through from either the top down, or the bottom up. Notice how the channel tends to catch and contain PA and what kind of bounce price does when this happens.

Please tell me your observations...

For the record, we use the number 34 because of it's special FIB properties, and we use exponential moving average because we want to know the here and now and is best suited.

Attached you are looking at the latest bear movement on the GBPJPY H1 Chart.
Ignored
It does look pretty simple and easy to use, but i'm intrigued to find out what profit/loss occured during all the trades made in the screenshot you post?

Thanks in advance.

Shashi.
"The trend is your friend, until the end."
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Edited 7:43am May 11, 2008 7:25am | Edited 7:43am
  •  VagyokC4
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 126 Posts
Quoting ForexRookie
Disliked
It does look pretty simple and easy to use, but i'm intrigued to find out what profit/loss occured during all the trades made in the screenshot you post?

Thanks in advance.

Shashi.
Ignored
For that particular screen shot, my entry was a pull back @ 207.50 with a SL @ 208.00. I had very little draw down and lots of pips in profit. (I've added to my position on the way down, and locked in profits... yet I still have a trade open from way up there... just in case we go down further Be sure to look at multiple time frames! (2,5,15,30,60,180,480,D) I only PLAN trades from the BOLD time frames But I do like to look at the 2,5,15 as well

BTW: This system is great for entry... EXIT is still open for discussion as fear and greed play a big role
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • May 11, 2008 9:04am May 11, 2008 9:04am
  •  good
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 326 Posts
How would you trade this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: uc.gif
Size: 17 KB
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • May 11, 2008 10:12am May 11, 2008 10:12am
  •  Bob8662
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: FINANCIAL FREEDOM AND GENEROSITY | 41 Posts
Quoting VagyokC4
Disliked
Here is a sample chart with three 34 EMA's of the HIGH, CLOSE, and LOW.

Your first assignment is to remove ALL form your chart and ONLY add this TOOL to your chart!

Pay special attention to the way price action looks when it gets entangled into the channel. Notice how PA (price action) looks when it breaks through from either the top down, or the bottom up. Notice how the channel tends to catch and contain PA and what kind of bounce price does when this happens.

Please tell me your observations...

For the record, we use the number 34 because of it's special FIB properties, and we use exponential moving average because we want to know the here and now and is best suited.

Attached you are looking at the latest bear movement on the GBPJPY H1 Chart.
Ignored
I use a 3/34 EMA break out cross system with S/R and have had excellent results. Your post title on the home page of FF got my attention and I am curious to see the differences/similarities of our systems. I look forward to your posts. I am usually on FF to check calendar only but will try to follow your thread when I can.
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 3:47pm May 11, 2008 3:47pm
  •  alxasli
  • | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Member | 13 Posts
If you can make profit with this strategy good for you, strategy that you are using must fit you. After all it is not so important what strategy to use, it is more important who is trading.
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 4:38pm May 11, 2008 4:38pm
  •  sikacek
  • | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Member | 176 Posts
I am a newbie on FOREX and I am totally lost... how it's work? Can you describe your entry on your chart??

thanks
Veni, vidi, vici...
 
 
  • Post #11
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  • May 11, 2008 5:29pm May 11, 2008 5:29pm
  •  percyflame
  • | Joined May 2008 | Status: Member | 1 Post
Forgive me VagYokC4, but I see no mention of Raghee Horner in your description of the 34ema. It is my belief that she developed this system. She calls it "The Wave". She wrote about it in her 2004 book, "Forex Trading for Maximum Profit". Well worth seeking out for those of you who haven't read it.
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 5:52pm May 11, 2008 5:52pm
  •  ForexRookie
  • | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Member | 409 Posts
Quoting VagyokC4
Disliked
For that particular screen shot, my entry was a pull back @ 207.50 with a SL @ 208.00. I had very little draw down and lots of pips in profit. (I've added to my position on the way down, and locked in profits... yet I still have a trade open from way up there... just in case we go down further Be sure to look at multiple time frames! (2,5,15,30,60,180,480,D) I only PLAN trades from the BOLD time frames But I do like to look at the 2,5,15 as well

BTW: This system is great for entry... EXIT is still open for discussion as fear and greed play a big role
Ignored
Sounds quite good, will have to test it out first on demo. Which currency pairs does it work on and which doesn't it work on?
"The trend is your friend, until the end."
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 6:03pm May 11, 2008 6:03pm
  •  HouseTrader
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: ... I was aiming at the horse! | 947 Posts
Quoting good
Disliked
How would you trade this?
Ignored
GOOD question

In a big trend, there are hundreds of systems that work. But at choppy hell insane markets, how GOOD would it perform?

At your chart, unless I'm a huge scalper (which I'm not...) I would stay aside, sitting upon my $$...

Looking forward to see the answer!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 6:10pm May 11, 2008 6:10pm
  •  flizzoe
  • | Joined May 2006 | Status: Hardcore Trader | 27 Posts
nice stuff..

this is what i can see after 5 minutes looking at few charts:
1. don't trade when the price is touching and inside the lines.
2. trade when the first candle open above (buy) or below (sell) the lines.
3. take profit and stop loss is when the price touch the line.

p/s: i prefer to trade at 4H
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 6:17pm May 11, 2008 6:17pm
  •  zorroz
  • | Joined May 2008 | Status: Member | 161 Posts
looking forward to testing this more, cheers
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 6:20pm May 11, 2008 6:20pm
  •  zorroz
  • | Joined May 2008 | Status: Member | 161 Posts
if people are interested in how to determine when to work out that things may turn choppy or start to head sideways then try to get a hold of material by michael jenkins. excellent stuff.

obviously as stated before that knowing when to stay out is critical, trading thru the sideways periods is what kills these kinds of systems.
 
 
  • Post #17
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  • May 11, 2008 9:05pm May 11, 2008 9:05pm
  •  mrproper
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 31 Posts
Quoting percyflame
Disliked
Forgive me VagYokC4, but I see no mention of Raghee Horner in your description of the 34ema. It is my belief that she developed this system. She calls it "The Wave". She wrote about it in her 2004 book, "Forex Trading for Maximum Profit". Well worth seeking out for those of you who haven't read it.
Ignored
I couldn't agree more, percyflame. When I first saw the 34ema, I wanted to mention Raghee Horner's book. Guess you beat me to it.
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 10:58pm May 11, 2008 10:58pm
  •  VagyokC4
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 126 Posts
Quoting percyflame
Disliked
Forgive me VagYokC4, but I see no mention of Raghee Horner in your description of the 34ema. It is my belief that she developed this system. She calls it "The Wave". She wrote about it in her 2004 book, "Forex Trading for Maximum Profit". Well worth seeking out for those of you who haven't read it.
Ignored
Yes, all thanks go to Raghee Horner for such an awesome book. I cannot stress strongly enough this book should be a MUST READ for anyone new to trading and can be found here (http://www.raghee.com/EditModule.asp...etail&pID=1420).

It is a pretty quick read, so I recommend reading from cover-to-cover as she has a lot of great information that if you're just starting off, is an excellent resource.

With that said, I'd like to use this thread to explore in more detail just how a trading strategy can be constructed using the 34 EMA waves....
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 11:04pm May 11, 2008 11:04pm
  •  VagyokC4
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 126 Posts
Quoting good
Disliked
How would you trade this?
Ignored
I would first look at the Higher Time frames, to see how they are shaping up, but bottom line, this is a "break-out" strategy and NOT ALL TIMES ARE GREAT TRADING TIMES....

This is one of the most important keys to realize. Otherwise one ends up trying to chase every market move. And that gets very old very quick...

Remember.. the only thing better than getting into a GOOD trade.. is staying out of a BAD trade...

We are only interested in the ones that have high probability to producing good results.
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2008 11:08pm May 11, 2008 11:08pm
  •  VagyokC4
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 126 Posts
Quoting sikacek
Disliked
I am a newbie on FOREX and I am totally lost... how it's work? Can you describe your entry on your chart??

thanks
Ignored
Yes, we will get into this.. as I will be posting charts and opining on them as the week progresses..

The first thing is to adjust your eyes to the way:

  1. Price Action reacts around the channel
  2. The way the channels lines up on different time-frames (Ie., when the M2 HIGH crosses the M5 LOW)

 
 
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