Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting malcolmb14

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I think you are wrong .... I think it might be 1200 pips down ...lol

Here is weekly .....sweet downtrend and we are at top of a 2 sd linear regression channel

Last time it the 50 sma on the weekly it dropped 1000 pips

I cannot attach file ..... but look at weekly with a 50 sma plotted

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Quoting malcolmb14

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...I do not think you understand the AIG write down news on Thursday. Credit derivatives .. that what caused the write down. The first insurance company I have seen with write downs because of them. Credit derivatives and credit default swaps will make the sub prime issues look insignificant if they become an issue in the financial world ...

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Quoting DutchTrader

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I think a lot of people didn't pay attention to that, least around here it seems. That was catastrophic news, and many in the financial media didn't emphasize the derivatives factor. Probably because they might not realize it's impact...

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Quoting ak4x

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I'm sure someone will still be calling a bottom at the -2,262% fib extension...

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Quoting DutchTrader

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Quoting Scotty B

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Just playing around and walking my fib. I got to a certain fractal and found the price meeting the lower 61.8 ext very nice and cleanly. Just food for thought.

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Quoting ak4x

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Ditto to the max guys!!

If and when the market makers that be decide the cat is fixing to get out of the bag, I don't think they plan on still being there holding the bag. Problem is this is now a global issue and there isn't really any safe haven from the full effect of this thing if it goes tarfu, but when that first 3 foot long red candle runs off the bottom of our screens onto the floor, I'm sure someone will still be calling a bottom at the -2,262% fib extension...

This release last Thursday from a smaller company than the Countrywides, AIG's, or MBIA's of the world.

"The loss on credit derivatives reached $175.8 million, but was larger than the company had expected, according to analyst Mark Lane. "They said worst-case would be $100 million in credit losses, so it's hard to get your arms around how much exposure is still out there," he said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24529937/

Hey Mark, ya think? Worst case is supposed to be worst case, not half worst. Check this one out from 3 days ago

"British bank Lloyds TSB announced on Tuesday that it had written down 387 million pounds ($761.56 million) in investments, while the world's largest reinsurer, Swiss Re, announced a surprise 819 million Swiss francs ($780.3 million) in additional write-downs on credit default swaps. Swiss Re's announcement, which caught the market off guard, sent its shares down 6.0% on Tuesday morning." http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/0...markets05.html

See the pattern here? Surprise announcements and reports that aren't even close to expectations.

"The CDS market exploded over the past decade to more than $45 trillion in mid-2007, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. This is roughly twice the size of the U.S. stock market." http://www.time.com/time/business/ar...,00.html?imw=Y

Well that was a few months ago, end of 2007. The 45t number from mid 2007 is now at 62t as of 4/18/08.

"VIENNA, Wednesday, April 16, 2008 – At its Annual General Meeting in Vienna today, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) announced the results of its Year-End 2007 Market Survey of privately negotiated derivatives.

The notional amount outstanding of credit default swaps (CDS) grew 37 percent to $62.2 trillion in the second half of 2007 from $45.5 trillion at mid-year. CDS notional growth for the whole of 2007 was 81 percent from $34.5 trillion at year-end 2006." http://www.isda.org/

So if 0 to 45t in a decade is explosive, what do you call 45 to 62 in a half year?

My last and favorite forecast blurb from http://credit-deriv.com/crenewsfeb04...lphi_downgrade

"Like a typhoon warning changed into one of a hurricane, the CDO business bore the brunt of a massive downgrade - 127 CDOs were downgraded and an additional 39 were placed on rating watch negative."

In weather, I think the progression goes something like storm<tropical storm<typhoon<hurricane<________ ??

Don't believe this? Keep it simple. Figure out what nothin to 62 trillion in 10 years (with no retracements...) might look like on a candle chart somehow, then take all the prices and numbers away. Post that chart on FF somewhere without sayin what it is, say "you heard" somewhere this xx thing was fixin to go even higher and ask would anybody go all in on a long from the top...

But hey guys, everything's ok now. They said so.

Taking Sunday night off. Catch you guys Monday pre NY session...

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Quoting damonl

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I am seeing a strong trendline that dates back to 1994 on the W1. That trendline crosses through today at around 195 or so.

I would expect that we would get a rebound off this trendline in the formation of a double bottom which would then give us a very likely chance to become considerably bullish.

Giving the line a little leway, if price breaks considerably lower than this trendline (400 pips or so) we cold realistically be looking at 150 or so before the next major SAR would be triggered.

This would also correlate with the downward channel for UJ on W1 which coincidentally dates back as well to 1998. It may take some doing to break below this level as it appears to be relatively strong and has bounced off this line many times since 1998. If it breaks below this channel we could expect to see those 1994 lows reached for GJ and UJ especially with GU also showing economic weakness at the moment.

But based on past history since 1998, I would expect that UJ will form another new Lower High over the coming few months as it has already bounced off the lower line of this channel. But as you know, your guess is as good as mine what it will actually do.

Now this is what I see and I would imagine that my evaluation is fairly accurate, any ideas from anyone on how to trade it?

Seeing it and trading it for me have not formed a union yet in my mind. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

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Quoting ffujifilm

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could u attached ure chart bro?

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Quoting damonl

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I have drawn in a few more trendlines on the GJ cahrt. It appears that we have a convergence very close to the current price of 2 trendlines.

To me, it would have to have some pretty strong reasons to fall below both of the points, although it may bounce around here for while.

Attachment

Does anyone have an opinion about going long at the 195.5 (the next trendline down) with a S/L set at 190 with a small risk. Remember that this is the weekly chart and so S/L would have to be slightly bigger.

Any thoughts on this one by anyone? I usually don't like to trade agains price action, but ut has bounced off this level before on W1 and I am willing to bet it will do so again.

Just an idea and looking for feedback.

P.S. Maybe the idea would be to look for a Bullish Divergent Bar on the daily sometime around this level rather than a predetermined place to enter the market

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Quoting Scotty B

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I didn't think you were laughing at me, although I am a pretty funny guy...
I was just pointing out the ext for trivias sake anyway. I have watched the market use a specific angle time and time again in this down trend we've been in for so long now. Despite the clean ext's being met on differant TF's using Fibs ect, I do think the price will fall a bit more, at least to the same line it has the past three similar falls (refer to chart). I think that 197 will be the absolute bottom. IMHO.

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Quoting malcolmb14

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Just be a little careful as both s&p and dj-30 are at bottom of bear flags on the daily and the AIG news may be enough to take them on the next leg down of the bear market.

If this is in fact a bear flag the flag pole on dj was 3000 points . This takes us down into 10000 zone on dj , gj would drop into monthly trend line 180

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Quoting lilmoe

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what you're pointing out is very true. we did have a trend angle for the past 6 or so months. there's no doubt that the major mid-term and long-term trend down. HOWEVER, plz allow me to point out another fact when these series of TLs are breached. THE PRICE ALWAYS RETESTS THOSE TLs AND IF THEY DO CONFORM AS RESISTANCE, THE PRICE CONTINUES IT'S JOURNEY DOWNWARDS. here's a chart describing exactly what i mean.

Attachment

now, i truly think longs are pretty safe at this time. even if we gap downwards, longs are still safe. price has to fill at least 70% of the gap, this happens 99% of the time. but our ultimate destination for the "retracement" would be a retest of the TL that was breached last friday.

NOW, if the price breaches that TL upwards and the TL conforms as support then say goodbye to shorts. we, under that condition will be headed towards the upper TL of the channel that stood strong over a month and half, and i on my end will consider this behavior a FALSE breach of the lower TL of that channel.

scenario1: i will place lots of shorts when the price reaches the TL and my SLs will be just above that lower TL, because if u take a look at the 9 month old history of TL testing, price conformed 100% to these TLs not a single significant pip above them.

scenario2: if the TL is breached, i will turn all my shorts to longs and place stop losses 50-100 pips below that TL again. this is a medium risk trade if ask me.

time will tell.

tell me guys what u think.

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Quoting lilmoe

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what you're pointing out is very true. we did have a trend angle for the past 6 or so months. there's no doubt that the major mid-term and long-term trend down. HOWEVER, plz allow me to point out another fact when these series of TLs are breached. THE PRICE ALWAYS RETESTS THOSE TLs AND IF THEY DO CONFORM AS RESISTANCE, THE PRICE CONTINUES IT'S JOURNEY DOWNWARDS. here's a chart describing exactly what i mean.

Attachment

now, i truly think longs are pretty safe at this time. even if we gap downwards, longs are still safe. price has to fill at least 70% of the gap, this happens 99% of the time. but our ultimate destination for the "retracement" would be a retest of the TL that was breached last friday.

NOW, if the price breaches that TL upwards and the TL conforms as support then say goodbye to shorts. we, under that condition will be headed towards the upper TL of the channel that stood strong over a month and half, and i on my end will consider this behavior a FALSE breach of the lower TL of that channel.

scenario1: i will place lots of shorts when the price reaches the TL and my SLs will be just above that lower TL, because if u take a look at the 9 month old history of TL testing, price conformed 100% to these TLs not a single significant pip above them.

scenario2: if the TL is breached, i will turn all my shorts to longs and place stop losses 50-100 pips below that TL again. this is a medium risk trade if ask me.

time will tell.

tell me guys what u think.

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Quoting lilmoe

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what you're pointing out is very true. we did have a trend angle for the past 6 or so months. there's no doubt that the major mid-term and long-term trend down. HOWEVER, plz allow me to point out another fact when these series of TLs are breached. THE PRICE ALWAYS RETESTS THOSE TLs AND IF THEY DO CONFORM AS RESISTANCE, THE PRICE CONTINUES IT'S JOURNEY DOWNWARDS. here's a chart describing exactly what i mean.

Attachment

now, i truly think longs are pretty safe at this time. even if we gap downwards, longs are still safe. price has to fill at least 70% of the gap, this happens 99% of the time. but our ultimate destination for the "retracement" would be a retest of the TL that was breached last friday.

NOW, if the price breaches that TL upwards and the TL conforms as support then say goodbye to shorts. we, under that condition will be headed towards the upper TL of the channel that stood strong over a month and half, and i on my end will consider this behavior a FALSE breach of the lower TL of that channel.

scenario1: i will place lots of shorts when the price reaches the TL and my SLs will be just above that lower TL, because if u take a look at the 9 month old history of TL testing, price conformed 100% to these TLs not a single significant pip above them.

scenario2: if the TL is breached, i will turn all my shorts to longs and place stop losses 50-100 pips below that TL again. this is a medium risk trade if ask me.

time will tell.

tell me guys what u think.

Ignored

Quoting lilmoe

Disliked

what you're pointing out is very true. we did have a trend angle for the past 6 or so months. there's no doubt that the major mid-term and long-term trend down. HOWEVER, plz allow me to point out another fact when these series of TLs are breached. THE PRICE ALWAYS RETESTS THOSE TLs AND IF THEY DO CONFORM AS RESISTANCE, THE PRICE CONTINUES IT'S JOURNEY DOWNWARDS. here's a chart describing exactly what i mean.

Attachment

now, i truly think longs are pretty safe at this time. even if we gap downwards, longs are still safe. price has to fill at least 70% of the gap, this happens 99% of the time. but our ultimate destination for the "retracement" would be a retest of the TL that was breached last friday.

NOW, if the price breaches that TL upwards and the TL conforms as support then say goodbye to shorts. we, under that condition will be headed towards the upper TL of the channel that stood strong over a month and half, and i on my end will consider this behavior a FALSE breach of the lower TL of that channel.

scenario1: i will place lots of shorts when the price reaches the TL and my SLs will be just above that lower TL, because if u take a look at the 9 month old history of TL testing, price conformed 100% to these TLs not a single significant pip above them.

scenario2: if the TL is breached, i will turn all my shorts to longs and place stop losses 50-100 pips below that TL again. this is a medium risk trade if ask me.

time will tell.

tell me guys what u think.

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