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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #79,461
  • May 8, 2008 11:04am May 8, 2008 11:04am
yep
  • #79,462
  • May 8, 2008 11:09am May 8, 2008 11:09am
a pennant might be forming on gj
  • #79,463
  • May 8, 2008 11:17am May 8, 2008 11:17am
Ok. The move from 198.16 to 209.07 was 1091 pips. If this down move was a 50% retrace, it would come into about 203.61. (Which is close to where we went, but not exact, as nothing is.) Any thoughts?
  • #79,464
  • May 8, 2008 11:18am May 8, 2008 11:18am
[quote=Tiger Hunter;1991161]

please delete your post, there is strict rules, you'll get banned for that.. no advertising
  • #79,465
  • May 8, 2008 11:19am May 8, 2008 11:19am
Dow's going to sell off again this afternoon, 12900 rejected, back towards 12780
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #79,466
  • May 8, 2008 11:23am May 8, 2008 11:23am
Quoting DutchTrader
Dow's going to sell off again this afternoon, 12900 rejected, back towards 12780
Maybe you can answer this for me. Why does the stock market move the currency market?
  • #79,467
  • May 8, 2008 11:25am May 8, 2008 11:25am
Quoting Clouds
Maybe you can answer this for me. Why does the stock market move the currency market?
Actualy is opposite, Big Boys (corporates, banks) borrow money from Japaneese Banks with 0.5% interest and invest on Wall Street. Only Carry pairs (YEN mostly ) are connected with DOW.
  • #79,468
  • May 8, 2008 11:44am May 8, 2008 11:44am
Quoting Piters
Actualy is opposite, Big Boys (corporates, banks) borrow money from Japaneese Banks with 0.5% interest and invest on Wall Street. Only Carry pairs (YEN mostly ) are connected with DOW.
Thanks. So when the stock market is + , that means, lots of banks are borrowing yen, then exchanging yen for us dollars, (causing the carry trades to go up ) and then spend it on stocks, and it drives up the costs of stocks?
  • #79,469
  • May 8, 2008 11:46am May 8, 2008 11:46am
oke guys i was no nothing about this rules.
  • #79,470
  • May 8, 2008 11:47am May 8, 2008 11:47am
http://www.forexfactory.com/faq.php?faq=rules#faq_rule3
  • #79,471
  • May 8, 2008 11:52am May 8, 2008 11:52am
Quoting sifoorex
Would you please stop doing spam marketing here?
what the hell spam you talk about .
  • #79,472
  • May 8, 2008 11:52am May 8, 2008 11:52am
Quoting Clouds
Thanks. So when the stock market is + , that means, lots of banks are borrowing yen, then exchanging yen for us dollars, (causing the carry trades to go up ) and then spend it on stocks, and it drives up the costs of stocks?
in basic YES... that's why as Dollar deppriciated, lot of Hedge funds, banks are having BIIG loses, writedowns... that is all about... now as it is very hard to sustain that condition, and as we saw the interest rates doesn't gave us any positive for the market results (house, auto industry, employment..) the very next move is THE BIG Unwinding.. ( returning the money... sell stocks, bonds ..) Everybody Knows that, but the question is When... By my calculatons.. it is already started... but it is not something like could happend in 1 or 2 days... You know that... EW theory, 1up, 1 down, 1up .... so the calculations are that we could see GY @ price 145.00; Can we?? that is the question...

Be safe
  • #79,473
  • May 8, 2008 11:55am May 8, 2008 11:55am
Quoting Tiger Hunter
what the hell spam you talk about .
Mate, all the best, but a lot of traders got Burned from "calls" and "signals" so on FF there is a rules NO COMERCIAL ADVERTISING.... that is why I asked to delete your post.. I know that you maybe not aware... but still.. They can Ban you..
  • #79,474
  • May 8, 2008 11:55am May 8, 2008 11:55am
Quoting Piters
in basic YES... that's why as Dollar deppriciated, lot of Hedge funds, banks are having BIIG loses, writedowns... that is all about... now as it is very hard to sustain that condition, and as we saw the interest rates doesn't gave us any positive for the market results (house, auto industry, employment..) the very next move is THE BIG Unwinding.. Everybody Knows that, but the question is When... By my calculatons.. it is already started... but it is not something like could happend in 1 or 2 days... You know that... EW theory, 1up, 1 down, 1up .... so the calculations are that we could see GY @ price 145.00; Can we?? that is the question...

Be safe

Could you share with us your EW piters,

Thank in adv
  • #79,475
  • May 8, 2008 11:58am May 8, 2008 11:58am
Quoting Piters
in basic YES... that's why as Dollar deppriciated, lot of Hedge funds, banks are having BIIG loses, writedowns... that is all about... now as it is very hard to sustain that condition, and as we saw the interest rates doesn't gave us any positive for the market results (house, auto industry, employment..) the very next move is THE BIG Unwinding.. ( returning the money... sell stocks, bonds ..) Everybody Knows that, but the question is When... By my calculatons.. it is already started... but it is not something like could happend in 1 or 2 days... You know that... EW theory, 1up, 1 down, 1up .... so the calculations are that we could see GY @ price 145.00; Can we?? that is the question...

Be safe
Why were carry trades doing so well up until 07'? What changed then?
  • #79,476
  • May 8, 2008 12:03pm May 8, 2008 12:03pm
Hello all =

Been tieds up with work related matters and on the road until the end of the week. Will be vacationing all next week but will rtn on 05/18/08. . .

Will talk to everyone then, hope everyone getting those green pips, it's been a nice ride down, now I'm looking for the nice ride up, he, he, he, he =

Talk to u much l8ter - Quecee

What's up Vinesh?
  • #79,477
  • May 8, 2008 12:05pm May 8, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting quecee5
Hello all =

Been tieds up with work related matters and on the road until the end of the week. Will be vacationing all next week but will rtn on 05/18/08. . .

Will talk to everyone then, hope everyone getting those green pips, it's been a nice ride down, now I'm looking for the nice ride up, he, he, he, he =

Talk to u much l8ter - Quecee

What's up Vinesh?
Enjoy your vacation bro.
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #79,478
  • May 8, 2008 12:07pm May 8, 2008 12:07pm
203.5 is 15m 50ema. Will be interesting to see how price reacts there.
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #79,479
  • Edited 12:40pm May 8, 2008 12:12pm | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting Clouds
Why were carry trades doing so well up until 07'? What changed then?
Actualy I believe I did posted a chart a 2 weeks ago, for corelations between GY and Dow. All happened after the big crash in japan, starting 1997 or so, then japaneese banks lowered interest rates to 0%, then latter to 0,5% But the massive Jump is after 9/11, If you can compare charts from Gy and Dow you can see what I am talking about. After the crash, the Big Boys figured out How thay can safetly borrow Yens with Gbp, then convert Gbp to USD and buy stocks on wall street (as it was the unique "golden place" on earth when you can invest money and get HUGE rreturns). So the massive Hysteria as Hedge funds started a Carry Trade fenomena. Everybody went in this exercise. Now from the other side, the US economy starts wekened as the War on Terror, and other borrowings from the establishemnt went to the roof, all those things start reflect on US economy. The first symptoms were the Petrol or OIL trading: It was a rule that you have to Buy Oil only in USD, everywere in the world. But some countries start accepting EUR as well, and that also broke the concept.
Just to mention; some experts are saying that we reach Pick Oil production in July '07. They are saying that we are facing Hudge problems as the oil distribution infrastructure is very old and cannot serve all world, specialy now with China and India open markets. But Petrol price is not the biggest problem because the oil is $4/gallon or $5/per gallon, and we cannot drive as we use to. The problem is in Food Production, as the biggest consumer in oil industry are Food Proccessing and Food Collecting Machines, and now from this year, for August, September this year, we can expect DRASTICLY INCREASE on FOOD price. That is going to be the Biggest Impact on our Civilisation. (something to Think About) There is a lot of reasons what happened and why... but all on the end is that a lot of basic financial Laws - like natural laws were broken. Usualy in recesion, you first get recesion, anad then housing porblems and, credit cards, and bonds, and funds... but here something else happened inverse.. so here we are... Some smart Guys are saying that it is very natural, as in Nature, we need recesions, as corrections, so we can grow again.. but We know every recesion is very PAINFULL .. so stay tuned and let's make money...
  • #79,480
  • May 8, 2008 12:17pm May 8, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting Infinity
203.5 is 15m 50ema. Will be interesting to see how price reacts there.

What you learn from it?

I'm seeing more shorts there..
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