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forecast for economic indicators of Australia

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 13, 2008 9:41am Mar 13, 2008 9:41am
hi traders ,i would like to start a wholly discussion about examination and forecasts for economic indicators of Australia in beginning every week
  • #2
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:58pm Mar 13, 2008 5:58pm
OK, let's start with the CNN Gold indicator

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/pf/g...n=money_latest
  • #3
  • Mar 14, 2008 5:38am Mar 14, 2008 5:38am
Quoting TheTopBloke
OK, let's start with the CNN Gold indicator

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/pf/g...n=money_latest
hi dear TheTopBloke ,thanks you .very intersting article .TheTopBloke i think that we must see to burst the price bubble for Gold and Silver also Oil in the next time .what is your point of view ?
  • #4
  • Mar 21, 2008 3:50pm Mar 21, 2008 3:50pm
at last ,we have seen to burst bubble of prices (oil-gold) this week
  • #5
  • Mar 23, 2008 7:20am Mar 23, 2008 7:20am
again we see after date 2007.07.22 and 2007.11.04 once again risk aversion that taken leading of financial markets .this conditions have difficulty and to become wounded for AUUSI and KIWI and finally for CABLE .
we know that carry trade is creates from foreign exchange rates and interest rates one country with other countries .
in any case this risk aversion will be reason for unwind AUSSI .
on the other hand commodity prices (gold -oil -..)have plunged in recent days .maybe liquidate position by traders (to take profit themselves positions) and AUSSI after recent risk aversion with to burst bubble of price gold have turmbled .
we know that AUSSI is a currency of commodities .also a reason is for demand AUSSI in the past months ,demand was for commodities like gold - zinc by china and india.
  • #6
  • Apr 7, 2008 9:52pm Apr 7, 2008 9:52pm
So...

Did you short the Aussie and Gold?

Is that what you did?
  • #7
  • Apr 22, 2008 5:06pm Apr 22, 2008 5:06pm
hi TheTopBloke
first, i must thank from you for to start discussion on short the Aussie and Gold.
secondly, i must apologize from you for delay answer to you .
dear TheTopBloke , you are a Australlian.therefore ,i think you can help to me for continuation a dialectic discussion about forecast for economic indicators of Australia in this thread
  • #8
  • May 7, 2008 12:54am May 7, 2008 12:54am
Although The Interst Rate Is On Hold, I Think It Will Rise Once Again, Now The Mining Boom Has Not Shown Signs Of Slowing, Long Term Contracts With China And Other Contries Still Looksound
And Prices Are Locked In

The Farming Industry Especally For Wheet Due To High Proices Looks Very Encouraging,

The Biggest Problem Is For The Goverment Is Controlling Inflation

There Fore I Believe The Aussie Dollar Looks For The Next Few Months Very Strong

Thats My Opinion Only But The Current Economic Situation Points
To A Strong Dollar
From Brian
  • #9
  • May 13, 2008 10:17pm May 13, 2008 10:17pm
Im in agreement.

Labor likes to spend money. Australia 2020 is a good example. "Nimbin in suits" is the term spun in the news. What an insult to Nimbin.

Anyhow, they spend alot on parties, meetings, consultants, committees, etc, etc.., and that's just to figure out how to spend the $40B in infrastructure funds. They are sooo itching to put it into the economy.

The only thing I see bringing the value of AUD down would be another sudden panic in the markets. But even in the past few months, people paniced and sold out and the AUD dropped, but people came right back. It possible it may not even happen.

I think it all comes down to... why as an investor do I want to be in the US? The only reason people WANT to be back in is not to miss out, but there's nothing to miss out on.
  • #10
  • May 15, 2008 11:13am May 15, 2008 11:13am
see
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf sp_gov_150508.pdf   68 KB | 443 downloads
  • #11
  • May 16, 2008 3:53am May 16, 2008 3:53am
A comparison of the US and Australian Housing Markets
http://www.rba.gov.au/Speeches/2008/sp_ag_160508.html
  • #12
  • May 17, 2008 8:18pm May 17, 2008 8:18pm
THE only coment on the Aussie economy i can make is the present , oversees contracts for the mining , prices are locked in and sales are exceeding expectations, the current indications are for the wheet and agricultural look extremly good at the current stage, interest rates appear to be rising rapidly and there are no signs of reducing, empoyment is still very strong.
the impact on the housing market will be severe due to rising interest rates due to the impact of the us prime market drying up money supply.
thats is my current opinion to our market , supported by the local news and
how i see the current economy.

so for the next few months i can see a rising aud against the usd.

the experts can understand the long term implications but for us this short term assesment of the current Aud tells me the Aud is lickly to rise
From Brian
  • #13
  • May 18, 2008 12:11pm May 18, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting brijon
THE only coment on the Aussie economy i can make is the present , oversees contracts for the mining , prices are locked in and sales are exceeding expectations, the current indications are for the wheet and agricultural look extremly good at the current stage, interest rates appear to be rising rapidly and there are no signs of reducing, empoyment is still very strong.
the impact on the housing market will be severe due to rising interest rates due to the impact of the us prime market drying up money supply.
thats is my current opinion to our market , supported by the local news and
how i see the current economy.

so for the next few months i can see a rising aud against the usd.

the experts can understand the long term implications but for us this short term assesment of the current Aud tells me the Aud is lickly to rise
From Brian
thanks dear brijon for your viewpoint
brijon i have rerad in some of news about rumors that china could invest in Australian mining giant BHP Billiton . waht is your point of view ? if this is right we must will see uptrend in AUDUSD
  • #14
  • May 19, 2008 5:55pm May 19, 2008 5:55pm
YES CHINA is investing into BHP. this only confirms the contiuing mining boom which is driving the Aud. THE PRESENT INDICATIONS IS FOR A VERY STRONG AUD, AS inflaton is the problem and quite serious causing interst rate hikes up to try and contain this inflation. w

ith theminining developing hugh cash flows into the AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY AND the treasary pockets which are bulging at the seams.

WE have the opposite to recession therefore logic dictates the Aud will remain strong. now with the current drought broken and the world price for WHEET ECT,THE FARMERS ARE PREDICTING A GREAT year ,due to the higher wheet prices,

THE only downside as i mentioned is the housing market,which is made worse by our inflationrate hike and high interest rates which in the longer term will start to impact on the Economy.

the employment figures support with the minning boom continuing lowering of unemployment figures as Australia is encouraging migration(skilled to fill these hugh gaps for skilled workers )

SO with the inflationary pressures and THE supporting hugh goverment surplus its hard to see for the next few months any thing but continuing strong Aud to currencys that have exactly the opposite conditions

THats my opinion ,i may be wrong im certainly no economic forcaster
its only what i read and see on our current News and observed our local prices and bank interest charges

From Brian
  • #15
  • May 21, 2008 1:19am May 21, 2008 1:19am
Quoting brijon
YES CHINA is investing into BHP. this only confirms the contiuing mining boom which is driving the Aud. THE PRESENT INDICATIONS IS FOR A VERY STRONG AUD, AS inflaton is the problem and quite serious causing interst rate hikes up to try and contain this inflation. w

ith theminining developing hugh cash flows into the AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY AND the treasary pockets which are bulging at the seams.

WE have the opposite to recession therefore logic dictates the Aud will remain strong. now with the current drought broken and the world price for WHEET ECT,THE FARMERS ARE PREDICTING A GREAT year ,due to the higher wheet prices,

THE only downside as i mentioned is the housing market,which is made worse by our inflationrate hike and high interest rates which in the longer term will start to impact on the Economy.

the employment figures support with the minning boom continuing lowering of unemployment figures as Australia is encouraging migration(skilled to fill these hugh gaps for skilled workers )

SO with the inflationary pressures and THE supporting hugh goverment surplus its hard to see for the next few months any thing but continuing strong Aud to currencys that have exactly the opposite conditions

THats my opinion ,i may be wrong im certainly no economic forcaster
its only what i read and see on our current News and observed our local prices and bank interest charges

From Brian
thanks Brian your viewpoint
agree with you about inflaton is the problem for Australia .so that ,this case have implication in RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the board
http://www.rba.gov.au/MonetaryPolicy..._06052008.html
  • #16
  • Aug 10, 2008 8:30pm Aug 10, 2008 8:30pm
statement on monetary policy 9 may 2008
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf statement_on_monetary_0508.pdf   626 KB | 472 downloads
  • #17
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:27am Aug 15, 2008 8:27am
The major influence in the AUD is the RBA (Reserve Bank or Australia) after the last meeting they left the rates on hold. we talk of rates dropping. this was the main reason for the aud to fall so fast against the usd.

some of the real drivers in the Australian economy are metal prices as Australia is a miner. mining boom = Australian boom!

cheers
Joseph
  • #18
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:58am Sep 5, 2008 10:58am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
The major influence in the AUD is the RBA (Reserve Bank or Australia) after the last meeting they left the rates on hold. we talk of rates dropping. this was the main reason for the aud to fall so fast against the usd.

some of the real drivers in the Australian economy are metal prices as Australia is a miner. mining boom = Australian boom!

cheers
Joseph
hi Apocalypto
i don't know whether current rate AUD is price for 25 bps or no ?
  • #19
  • Last Post: Sep 5, 2008 10:59am Sep 5, 2008 10:59am
http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2008/mr_08_14.html
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