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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #78,501
  • May 6, 2008 8:58am May 6, 2008 8:58am
Quoting shahroodi
agreed

hi mike
how r u budd???
where were you in last days????

wish the best for you
Hey everybody, I've been around, just haven't posted tat much because there hasn't been much to post! lol It looks like the next move up to the 210 area of resistance might not be too far off from here. I do however think we'll see lower 205's before getting to that area, which is why I've had shorts from higher 207's to this area although I may close early as the 5 sma retracement on the weekly is now completed. I am starting to load up my longs in this area and will continue to do so into the lower 205's and after we start to move up - to ensure that I'm correct in this move- I will have entries waiting to be triggered with targets in the 210 area. Should make for a good week!

On another note, how has everyone been? I hope you all great and your trading is going just as good!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #78,502
  • May 6, 2008 8:59am May 6, 2008 8:59am
Quoting warta
Attachment

bullish time
http://qsmile.com/qsimages/39.gif
  • #78,503
  • May 6, 2008 8:59am May 6, 2008 8:59am
Quoting mike w
As soon as we start moving downwards, everyone starts yelling to short to insane levels. Look to the higher timeframes - we had a double low higher close on the weekly. That is telling us that this is just a retracement in order to gain more buyers into the market for another burst upwards. Just like Orionsway has been talking about time in conjuction with price, this is exactly that happening right now. Price is gearing up. Without gearing up, you would never get a large move - I just hope your all on the right side of it. Have a good one everybody.
Not trying to be a contrary to your view but both sides of this coin can be played. Last week when price was going up everyone was talking about going long to insane levels. Higher time frame charts look very bearish to me but unless we can break this t/l at 205.60 area I don't see this falling.....today. Fundamentals just don't support any big moves up right now; dollar is weakening again, oil is skyrocketing, subprime is really starting to hit europe. Just my humble opinion.

Don't really care which way it goes as long as it goes.

Good trading to you.
  • #78,504
  • May 6, 2008 8:59am May 6, 2008 8:59am
Quoting ephisi
lets see d new 4hr MOM, it may just be a 4hr 5sma retracemwnt, still waiting, 10mins
perfect 4hr 5sma trade, all shorts need is GU to play along
  • #78,505
  • May 6, 2008 9:02am May 6, 2008 9:02am
Quoting mike w
As soon as we start moving downwards, everyone starts yelling to short to insane levels. Look to the higher timeframes - we had a double low higher close on the weekly. That is telling us that this is just a retracement in order to gain more buyers into the market for another burst upwards. Just like Orionsway has been talking about time in conjuction with price, this is exactly that happening right now. Price is gearing up. Without gearing up, you would never get a large move - I just hope your all on the right side of it. Have a good one everybody.
Mike, I tend to agree at the moment ..
Closed out all my shorts @205.71.. side line now ..
Both Dow and US 30yrs-Bond were at good support and resistance. But no signs for long yet tho .. maybe am missing something
Attached Images
  • #78,506
  • May 6, 2008 9:03am May 6, 2008 9:03am
Quoting Rustyyy
Not trying to be a contrary to your view but both sides of this coin can be played. Last week when price was going up everyone was talking about going long to insane levels. Higher time frame charts look very bearish to me but unless we can break this t/l at 205.60 area I don't see this falling.....today. Fundamentals just don't support any big moves up right now; dollar is weakening again, oil is skyrocketing, subprime is really starting to hit europe. Just my humble opinion.

Don't really care which way it goes as long as it goes.

Good trading to you.
Cool too ..
  • #78,507
  • May 6, 2008 9:06am May 6, 2008 9:06am
Quoting warta
Attachment

bullish time
Oh yeah!!! haha I'm loving that photo Warta!


I don't disagree that we could move down slightly more before continuing up however. 203.50 though, that would give us a triple bottom in price which I'm unsure would happen.


For everyone that is short, where would you see price moving to after this 203.50 level? I'm always liking to get different viewpoints on trades to expand my thinking on it. Shorts, would you also disagree about the longer timeframe setup or are you trading on shorter timeframes so the longer really wouldn't take hold by the time you get out? Also, we have a solid support level in the 204.50 area that should be noted of, but at the same time the top of the range on the daily is acting as resistance at around 208. 2 things happen from there - 1) continue in the range or 2) Breakout. Does anyone think it would be a good idea to have entry orders on either of these sides and wait for the trade to come to you? I personally do. Let me know your thoughts ladies and gents. :hypnotized: <--- P.S. the new smileys really are fun lol
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #78,508
  • May 6, 2008 9:12am May 6, 2008 9:12am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10560

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10561
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,509
  • May 6, 2008 9:12am May 6, 2008 9:12am
Quoting Rustyyy
Not trying to be a contrary to your view but both sides of this coin can be played. Last week when price was going up everyone was talking about going long to insane levels. Higher time frame charts look very bearish to me but unless we can break this t/l at 205.60 area I don't see this falling.....today. Fundamentals just don't support any big moves up right now; dollar is weakening again, oil is skyrocketing, subprime is really starting to hit europe. Just my humble opinion.

Don't really care which way it goes as long as it goes.

Good trading to you.

I hear ya Rusty and thanks for the input man! I've tried to get into the fundamentals of it all but that just contorts my original thoughts to nothing and then I lose lol I agree with all the situations that you mentioned but in any case with the dollar weakening and the subprime mess hitting europe, wouldn't that mean that both the gbp and usd are going down the drain? If so, then I definitely agree with a very large drop coming in the future to create lower lows. I've agreed with that for a while now, but I do also have trust in my technicals which, at the moment, are giving me convictions of price getting to 210 in order to load up the shorts again for the drop. We all know that technicals can give out at any moment though, and so I won't get married to any position, but I will let it ride when it comes to me. And again, thanks for the input man! It's always good hearing from someone that knows a lot about something that I don't know much about.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #78,510
  • May 6, 2008 9:14am May 6, 2008 9:14am
Quoting mike w
Oh yeah!!! haha I'm loving that photo Warta!


I don't disagree that we could move down slightly more before continuing up however. 203.50 though, that would give us a triple bottom in price which I'm unsure would happen.


For everyone that is short, where would you see price moving to after this 203.50 level? I'm always liking to get different viewpoints on trades to expand my thinking on it. Shorts, would you also disagree about the longer timeframe setup or are you trading on shorter timeframes so the longer really wouldn't take hold by the time you get out? Also, we have a solid support level in the 204.50 area that should be noted of, but at the same time the top of the range on the daily is acting as resistance at around 208. 2 things happen from there - 1) continue in the range or 2) Breakout. Does anyone think it would be a good idea to have entry orders on either of these sides and wait for the trade to come to you? I personally do. Let me know your thoughts ladies and gents. :hypnotized: <--- P.S. the new smileys really are fun lol
Technically: rejection of 208.50 area, many tries since beginning of March. If you take a look at daily chart at beginning of March the same pattern is emerging.
Bullish at beginning of month ( lot of this has to do with money flowing into investment accounts ) kind of like the littl choo-choo that tried then we had a nice bear run down to 192.50 area. If and I mean IF we break 199.00, I see retesting the lows at 192.50 area if not lower.
Fundamentally: I believe the catalyst for this will be retailers earnings next week. They will be in the toilet.

Just my very humble opinion.
  • #78,511
  • May 6, 2008 9:15am May 6, 2008 9:15am
Quoting jarroo
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10560

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10561
I'm loving your analysis Jim! That's exactly what's happened/happening IMO. Great stuff!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #78,512
  • May 6, 2008 9:19am May 6, 2008 9:19am
Daily MACD already cross down....like before...drop 700 pips within one day...
  • #78,513
  • May 6, 2008 9:19am May 6, 2008 9:19am
Quoting mike w
I hear ya Rusty and thanks for the input man! I've tried to get into the fundamentals of it all but that just contorts my original thoughts to nothing and then I lose lol I agree with all the situations that you mentioned but in any case with the dollar weakening and the subprime mess hitting europe, wouldn't that mean that both the gbp and usd are going down the drain? If so, then I definitely agree with a very large drop coming in the future to create lower lows. I've agreed with that for a while now, but I do also have trust in my technicals which, at the moment, are giving me convictions of price getting to 210 in order to load up the shorts again for the drop. We all know that technicals can give out at any moment though, and so I won't get married to any position, but I will let it ride when it comes to me. And again, thanks for the input man! It's always good hearing from someone that knows a lot about something that I don't know much about.
Well, we should combine our analysis, because I think I suck at technicals.

Although, and this may sound a little off the wall, I would like to see Orionsway planet charts, that I do believe has a lot more to do with the markets than a lot of people believe.

Price, time and lastly to me is motivation. What motivates price to move at a certain time, other than order fulfillment.

Trader sentiment ? Risk appetite/aversion ? Gann cycles ?
Still my learning curve .

I have always followed your analysis bro keep up the good work !

  • #78,514
  • May 6, 2008 9:20am May 6, 2008 9:20am
Quoting mike w
Oh yeah!!! haha I'm loving that photo Warta!


I don't disagree that we could move down slightly more before continuing up however. 203.50 though, that would give us a triple bottom in price which I'm unsure would happen.


For everyone that is short, where would you see price moving to after this 203.50 level? I'm always liking to get different viewpoints on trades to expand my thinking on it. Shorts, would you also disagree about the longer timeframe setup or are you trading on shorter timeframes so the longer really wouldn't take hold by the time you get out? Also, we have a solid support level in the 204.50 area that should be noted of, but at the same time the top of the range on the daily is acting as resistance at around 208. 2 things happen from there - 1) continue in the range or 2) Breakout. Does anyone think it would be a good idea to have entry orders on either of these sides and wait for the trade to come to you? I personally do. Let me know your thoughts ladies and gents. :hypnotized: <--- P.S. the new smileys really are fun lol
That's right Mike. Keep are trading minds thinking.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,515
  • May 6, 2008 9:21am May 6, 2008 9:21am
Quoting PandoraBox
Daily MACD already cross down....like before...drop 700 pips within one day...
.. ..700 pips? Either way I will be certainly happy again ..
  • #78,516
  • May 6, 2008 9:21am May 6, 2008 9:21am
Quoting mike w
I'm loving your analysis Jim! That's exactly what's happened/happening IMO. Great stuff!
Thanks Mike.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #78,517
  • May 6, 2008 9:22am May 6, 2008 9:22am
Quoting Rustyyy
Technically: rejection of 208.50 area, many tries since beginning of March. If you take a look at daily chart at beginning of March the same pattern is emerging.
Bullish at beginning of month ( lot of this has to do with money flowing into investment accounts ) kind of like the littl choo-choo that tried then we had a nice bear run down to 192.50 area. If and I mean IF we break 199.00, I see retesting the lows at 192.50 area if not lower.
Fundamentally: I believe the catalyst for this will be retailers earnings next week. They will be in the toilet.

Just my very humble opinion.
Ok, I'm noting exactly what your saying. The top of the range at that 208.50 level is definitely resistance. The bullishness at the beginning of the month is definitely a thought that I didn't really take into account and I definitely didn't realize it would be because of the investment accounts. The technicals show exactly what you saying with the fundamentals too. As for retailers earnings, I will definitely be taking note of that.

I think if and when, more so when, we get to 199.00, it'll just be a crapshute down to the lower lows which is the same with your opinion. That's when momentum will pick up for the move on a technical standpoint and possibly sooner once the higher up minor supports break. Wow, I am not worthy lol I gotta learn more on fundies.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #78,518
  • May 6, 2008 9:23am May 6, 2008 9:23am
Quoting mike w
Oh yeah!!! haha I'm loving that photo Warta!


I don't disagree that we could move down slightly more before continuing up however. 203.50 though, that would give us a triple bottom in price which I'm unsure would happen.


For everyone that is short, where would you see price moving to after this 203.50 level? I'm always liking to get different viewpoints on trades to expand my thinking on it. Shorts, would you also disagree about the longer timeframe setup or are you trading on shorter timeframes so the longer really wouldn't take hold by the time you get out? Also, we have a solid support level in the 204.50 area that should be noted of, but at the same time the top of the range on the daily is acting as resistance at around 208. 2 things happen from there - 1) continue in the range or 2) Breakout. Does anyone think it would be a good idea to have entry orders on either of these sides and wait for the trade to come to you? I personally do. Let me know your thoughts ladies and gents. :hypnotized: <--- P.S. the new smileys really are fun lol
Gold is going up.
The dollar index broke 73 support.
Euro is going back to 159, it's done it before.
Just pretend this month didn't happen.
Things are now back as usual.
(Another view point)
  • #78,519
  • May 6, 2008 9:27am May 6, 2008 9:27am
Quoting Rustyyy
Well, we should combine our analysis, because I think I suck at technicals.

Although, and this may sound a little off the wall, I would like to see Orionsway planet charts, that I do believe has a lot more to do with the markets than a lot of people believe.

Price, time and lastly to me is motivation. What motivates price to move at a certain time, other than order fulfillment.

Trader sentiment ? Risk appetite/aversion ? Gann cycles ?
Still my learning curve .

I have always followed your analysis bro keep up the good work !

I've been on this thought for a while now. What motivates the price to move? A huge array of things are motivators, but when it really gets down to it, what separates the big moves from ones that are duds? Technicals, for me, do play a huge role which bring people into the markets, but I want to get deeper and learn how other people see the market as well. Like what creates the technicals and are there any times (as you mentioned Orions posts) that moves are generally larger because of something offbeat. I guess this comes with boredom from the market, but it could be a good thing to try to think of. Thanks for the compliment too man, I appreciate it! I am in the same boat for you too, with your fundamental approach.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #78,520
  • May 6, 2008 9:29am May 6, 2008 9:29am
Quoting mktjong
.. ..700 pips? Either way I will be certainly happy again ..
I'm still remember when i short GJ at 237...daily pointing down ...when london open...huge red army make a free fall
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