Bag's first steps

Post 1, trade 0

Let's see if this journal takes off. I've been trading stocks with little to no effect, and taking inflation into account, it's been a negative experience. Moved on to options and got quite frustrated with broker hours and wide spreads. Then lept in to sell Yen short just before the Fed cut interest rates only to watch it rise slowly from 98 to well above 100. That taught me that price action depends on expectations and not necessarily fundamentals.

That led me to search for better more informed information and advice. And after looking at a number of sites, here I am. There are many traders here, past and present, that have kept me here lurking in the wings, reading oh so many threads. Their willingness to share their stories, successes and failures is an inspiration.
If I make any money I will be donating to Ozfx's World Vision.
I will keep my trading simple as so many recommend.
Risk management is #1. I will maintain my capital.
Start slowly and stay in the game

This thread will remain at trade 0 until I have my first live trade.
I am buying a 2nd hand pc tomorrow, will install mt4 and demo it for a while and then go live as soon as possible. Live trading is very different to demo, according to many ff posters. (thanks for the tips).
(my employers have given me a mac. Lovely to look at but not mt4 friendly)

Work full time. 3 kids at home. Love my job, love my family, no intention of going full time trader. Just need more cash. I'm not greedy, not in a hurry. But hope to turn my modest sum into a substantial whopping big "f.u." fund.

So where's this going? Crash and burn with the other 90%, or ...

Thanks to TrevA and his Lot size calculator for good money management I now have a handy money management tool. I love the way it shows what a steady pip drip can do to your equity. The part I'm not sure about at the moment is stop loss. 35 seems a little tight? Will get stopped out often through noise I suspect. So I now need a great strategy.

It must fit my lifestyle. I have easy access to the internet, not easy access to a pc. So entering a trade must happen early morning or late in the evening. It's going to be tempting to check the market through the day though.

Bought a cheap 2nd hand pc, nothing on it except windows and now mt4.
Spent yesterday getting some charts in line with Phillip Nels 4hr MACD strategy.
Read many of the 13 lessons included in the early posts,
Next steps:
Keep reading the 13 lessons to fully understand them.
Look at where to position SLs and TPs.
Work through the list of essential understandings

Risk reward is starting to become clearer and where to place stop losses.
Need to look at TC TR more.
Keeping Phil's first document on hand.
All set up with a live account. But just studying the charts for now. Used the demo account a couple of times to pull the trigger. Going to keep the use of the demo down to a minimum to keep things real.
(keeping an eye oin Ozfx to see how it works for my lifestyle, don't understand EAs yet, need to understand the 4 hour MACD first.)

I was hoping to go live soon, but it looks like I need to be a little more patient. I'm starting to get the idea of the MACD 4 hr strategy, but I need to recognise the rhythm a little better. There was a good signal recently that I could have taken.

System: MACD 4Hr

Stop loss 1.5461
TP 1.5595

Entry 1.5508

Why trade:
Price is below 89 and 200. Expected to pull back to 21.
MACD sitting below -0.0045 indicating strongly oversold.
Candle just before has a long tail down.


Why not to trade:

1. TP set too high. At this stage of my trading I need to take profits at a level I'm comfortable with. The pips aren't mine until I close. Never let a profitable trade turn into a losing trrade.
2. In my trading journal add a line for Potential TP and a Personal TP
3. Wait for higher probability trades. Wait for a TC signal from the MACD.
4. Get more in tune with the rhythm

I closed too early. Got a little nervous looking at the margin. Need more confidence in my analysis.

I hope to post here details of my trades and hopefully snapshots of my charts to support the decisions. Any feedback is welcome.

All trades will be posted, the good the bad and the ugly. I plan to ioncrease the frequency of trades as I gain knowledge.

So I tried a new system. Bagovino's. 5 and 12 EMA with 21 RSI. Saw a lovely cross of the EMAs going down, so tried to buy. The pips were moving fast and the system kept asking for a requote. I could see the pips running away from me. Thought I'd take a few easy pips. Couldn't enter at the price I wanted and thought about messages I read about slippage (is that the right term?) Also remembered Phil's comments about not entering during movement. Sat on the side lines until it bottomed out, or at least I thought it bottomed out. So I entered long looking for the bounce. I didn't find the bounce until 10 this morning.

Went to bed with a tp set 4 pips above my entry. no stop loss. Watched the pips drop another 40. Went to bed with calculations going in my mind. Figured out my money management should save me losing my shirt. I'm a lucky guy as I closed with 4 pips up
So I've learned:
Get a system and stick to it.
stop acting like a newbie
Keep the MM program (perhaps notch it down to 4% risk (5% at present)

There's a part of me that wants to lose a trade because I need to get used to losing as well as winning. But if I lose I want it to be for a good reason, not because I was stupid.

Trade 2:
EU
Buy 1.5472
TP 1.5476

Check the calendar for red news

Have made a few more live trades, but not really to any system. All finished positive, but that's out of luck rather than my skill. I needed to get comfortable with margin percents and see the numbers rise and fall to guage the importance of MM. I have that sorted out now. Also wanted to learn the rhythm of the market, and I need an incentive. Live trades certainly give you an incentive. But I keep lots very small. So small a loss is less than a bus fare home. Made 20% profit in 20 days. (a decent percent of a small amount is still a small amount!)

Spotted a nice TC signal on EURUSD and turned out I was right. Didn't take the trade when I should have done, watched it rise and figured it must retrace. So I entered short. No MACD signal and no sane reason to do so. I was impatient. So now I'm in a trade that's going north and I want it to go south. It has turned a little, but this could be the end of my live trading for a while.... let you know in 10 days or so?

Learn from my mistakes... Be patient, follow the trend, set stop losses(?).

Committed to the MACD 4 hr system.

Need to choose a suitable shorter time frame system.

EURUSD in the right direction for me now so took a profit of 40 pips or so. Now I can focus on MACD TC signals. On holiday tomorrow for a few weeks so no postings for a while. (up 25% since June 2nd That's worth a smiley face.)

I have been able to take a few trades here and there in between spending time with my family. I need to set aside some quality time for trading, and quality time for the family, and squeeze in working for a living somehow. A new routine is needed.
I'm quite pleased with my trading todate. Up 50% on initial investment since beginning of June. I've taken this week off from trading due to NFP tomorrow so I think 50% is respectable.
The trades I've taken have been conservative but an excellent success rate. It has been annoying though watching 300 pip waves that I could have ridden.

Recommendations for anyone starting new at this.
1. Go live as soon as possible.
2. Risk a very small percent of capital to get a feel for the margin risk. Win or lose pennies to start you off. Run a demo account at same time
3. If you expect the market to move 30 pips, take profit after 15. Lock in the profit. Build up your confidence.
4. Slowly increase the lot size as your capital grows
5. Be realistic with your time commitments. It can be done. I do not watch any tv except for the business news and kids shows (with my kids). The charts are far more interesting.
6. Get a feel for the rhythm of the market. Watch how it reacts to the news.
7. Keep an eye on the news always.

I feel I am ready to stretch out my pip targets, so we'll see how it goes.

System used so far. MACD 4hr, but not many trades taken using it. So have attached a zig zag and fib tool. Watching the market rhythm and getting a feel for things. Enter in the direction of the trend but wait for retracement. Time consuming but excellent success rate.

Patiently waiting to analyse this situation. I have a feeling that I am over thinking this. Looking at the EU on the 4 hour. Looks like a sHs forming which would indicate a rise coming up. I should wait for the neckline to be broken and then that would confirm a sHs and a TC on the upside. That is around 1.4800. This also happens to be resistance on the 00:00 candle of the 20/08.

If we see 1.4650 and below again I'm going to be looking for shorts to the downside and hold them to see if we can get to 1.43 (probably take profit at 1.45 and watch it go whichever way.

(Update: doubled my starting sum, added to my "investment" so have increased lot sizes. Still trading with 5% risk, which I'd like to decrerase soon. Took a loss recently of 35 pips or so, which taught me lots, I still close my trades too early. Must get better at exits. )
Trading plan is coming together will publish all my rules soon to help me have more discipline.

Now up 50% from total investment. I was up 80% but took a big loss due my stupidity. How could anyone make a loss with a confirmed downtrend worth 1900 pips. Thought I'd steal a few pips on a retracement. Fine it all looked good but resulted in a loss of 150 pips. No stop loss and left the trade unchecked for too long. Very poor analysis on my part. Did not follow my plan. I'm still attached to the money I have made or lost so still lots to learn. But surprisingly not as much as before (I guess because it was out of profits rather than my initial sum).

Still taking profit too soon, and i'm letting my losses run waiting for that pull back. It's amazing I have my account still intact.

The more I trade though the more in tune i am getting with market reactions to news and how price moves around. I'm starting to look at the longer term.

I do need to trade every day, because I enjoy it much. That is what I need to fix. Plan my trades better, and trade my plan.

When I made the big loss I spent two hours looking for advice in the forum and found great posts by Trader888. I'm going to investigate interest rate predictions. Also I must control my losses better.