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Where will it stop

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 11, 2005 4:42pm Aug 11, 2005 4:42pm
I've been looking at the GBP/USD and it has just taken off. I was going to get in but I thought no it has gone up so much and I don't want to just jump in. I feel that would be like chasing the trend. But it just keeps going and going (like the energizer Bunny) Where do you think it will stop?
Fdisk Please I just want a few pips. Is that too much to ask?
  • #2
  • Aug 11, 2005 5:27pm Aug 11, 2005 5:27pm
Quoting fdisk
I've been looking at the GBP/USD and it has just taken off. I was going to get in but I thought no it has gone up so much and I don't want to just jump in. I feel that would be like chasing the trend. But it just keeps going and going (like the energizer Bunny) Where do you think it will stop?
It's hitting resistance now, but if it can push through it, it MIGHT go on up to around 1.8265 before hitting the 365 ma on the daily chart. No one knows where it will stop. Just my opinion for what little it's worth.
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  • #3
  • Aug 11, 2005 5:59pm Aug 11, 2005 5:59pm
Quoting diallist
It's hitting resistance now, but if it can push through it, it MIGHT go on up to around 1.8265 before hitting the 365 ma on the daily chart. No one knows where it will stop. Just my opinion for what little it's worth.
who is this guy, he does not sound like a newbie to me.
  • #4
  • Aug 11, 2005 6:09pm Aug 11, 2005 6:09pm
When I was in Robert Miner's seminar: Dynamic Trading.....at the Chicago Trade Expo almost a month ago, I asked him to make a price projection for Cable. He came up with a zone around 1.8000 - 8100. We have arrived at that point.

There is also a confluence of fib time projections that would indicate a high for the period of today thru Sunday that I made on the daily chart projected from lows in mid June and July. So those projections and the price projection should give a higher probability of a reversal soon. Maybe now!

Lets see what happens. This is the first time I have publicly made a projection using DT techniques. Still learning about DT methods... so in this regard I am nearly a newbie.

Lou
  • #5
  • Aug 11, 2005 6:36pm Aug 11, 2005 6:36pm
Quoting james16
who is this guy, he does not sound like a newbie to me.
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  • #6
  • Aug 11, 2005 6:38pm Aug 11, 2005 6:38pm
Quoting Lou
When I was in Robert Miner's seminar: Dynamic Trading.....at the Chicago Trade Expo almost a month ago, I asked him to make a price projection for Cable. He came up with a zone around 1.8000 - 8100. We have arrived at that point.

There is also a confluence of fib time projections that would indicate a high for the period of today thru Sunday that I made on the daily chart projected from lows in mid June and July. So those projections and the price projection should give a higher probability of a reversal soon. Maybe now!

Lets see what happens. This is the first time I have publicly made a projection using DT techniques. Still learning about DT methods... so in this regard I am nearly a newbie.

Lou
Nice post Lou!

Jim, do you ever use fib time projections? How is their value compared to fib price projections?
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  • #7
  • Aug 12, 2005 7:46pm Aug 12, 2005 7:46pm
i think the cable is out of gas right here at 1.8200. she's going 700 pips south
Relax and be happy.
  • #8
  • Aug 14, 2005 5:46am Aug 14, 2005 5:46am
it is really difficult to say. we should know more by tomorrow morning and by tomorrow morning i mean London time, check your hourly charts and if it opens strong then this could be an indication of a trend continuation and therefore more upside bias.

to see where we're at now it is interesting to look at the fib retracements from the May 5th high (about 1.9079) and the 20th July low (1.7279) you will notice from these retracements that we were unable to break the 50% mark (resistance) on friday, i.e 1.8173 or so. on the downside, support is around 1.8079 which was where it was chased back up from after profit taking on friday. Fridays close left the pair right in the middle of these "bands"

If we can get over the 50% then it may head up to the 61.8% of said fibs, i.e 1.8386, this was also around the high on the 8th june before a massive drop.

the risk to the downside is prob a retracement of the current move if we fail to get over 50%.

next week is an important week for cable in many respects. there is TICs on Monday which is "expected" to be negative, so there's a good reason for more upside bias, then again, we have CPI and bank of england minutes later in the week, which could perhaps give the dollar some strength.

so its difficult to call and the picture can really change very quickly indeed, I expect some big moves next week in cable (more so than any other pair I guess for this time of the year), so keep an eye on your charts & be aware of these data releases, it might be worth it to get up early if your stateside and you want some action during these summer weeks... I know Merlin will be lurking waiting for the right opportunity!

btw, im new..
  • #9
  • Aug 14, 2005 1:24pm Aug 14, 2005 1:24pm
Quoting rebel23
btw, im new..
welcome to the forum rebel! you sound like you know your stuff are you an elliotician?
Relax and be happy.
  • #10
  • Aug 14, 2005 2:21pm Aug 14, 2005 2:21pm
Hi Merlin, I like to use EWT, but I dont think its perfect. I think the key is being able to change your mind and adapt very quickly indeed and to recognize the key levels. wave counts and fibs provide me with these.. but not all the time, markets can drift, but hopefully it works more than it doesn't :-)

there's nothing to beat a nice trend, when the markets drift I think its best to stand aside and look elsewhere...

This thread is very timely as I think cable has made some big moves over the last few weeks. who said summer months are boring??
  • #11
  • Aug 14, 2005 2:51pm Aug 14, 2005 2:51pm
Quoting rebel23
Hi Merlin, I like to use EWT, but I dont think its perfect. I think the key is being able to change your mind and adapt very quickly indeed and to recognize the key levels. wave counts and fibs provide me with these.. but not all the time, markets can drift, but hopefully it works more than it doesn't :-)

there's nothing to beat a nice trend, when the markets drift I think its best to stand aside and look elsewhere...

This thread is very timely as I think cable has made some big moves over the last few weeks. who said summer months are boring??
you sound like a great trader rebel!

btw, i love when a volatile summer (in both currencies and equities) flys in the face of conventional "summer is slow" wizdom

i hope that damn "so goes january, so goes the year" myth gets proved wrong AGAIN this year too
Relax and be happy.
  • #12
  • Aug 14, 2005 3:27pm Aug 14, 2005 3:27pm
I'm always learning Merlin, which is why I think this forum is great.. I've checked out "other" FX related forums and couldn't believe it, everyone assuming expert status, posting trade recommendations...

I notice this forum is more focused towards LEARNING and sharing market ideas, which is fantastic. I am about to read a few threads i.e James's, I think it'll take me a couple of weeks though :-)
  • #13
  • Last Post: May 3, 2019 5:42am May 3, 2019 5:42am
I don't know whether it will stop or not. as long as there is still a plan B, just follow it.
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