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  • #241
  • May 4, 2008 9:57am May 4, 2008 9:57am
Quoting zoopy
lol. I'm actually glad you've taken a look at some of the stuff I've posted. I'm hoping it'll make some traders think about what they're doing when they make their trades (not just me).

Here's something else to think about. This is about waves again.

1. When you draw trendlines, what are you using as reference points?
2. Support and resistance levels, if you look at them carefully, what are they really?
3. Fib levels. Everyone loves using them because they say price bounces in those areas. What do you think you'll find in those areas?
4. Some use PA setups... they actually don't realize this but say for example a buob setup. When it works, it's actually a wave breaking to the upside.


I agree. And if you are trading the break of a small wave upwards for a long trade (BUOB on, say, 4HR) at a place that is also a pullback of an even larger wave (say daily or weekly) then you are effectively trading PA off of major support and resistance levels.

However, I think that bar analysis in this case has the upper hand when fine-tuning entries because it allows us to more easily evaluate how the wave broke. It is more easily quantifiable simply because I know that each bar is 1 unit of time... so I can look at it and say "wow the market turned up equally as fast as it went down". To me this helps a person get a feel for the market.
  • #242
  • May 4, 2008 10:03am May 4, 2008 10:03am
Raz,

I didn't realize that you had a journal; I will be following from now on. I think we trade very similarly. I was also a member of J16 and have been using that to supplement Jacko's methodology.

I am keeping one of these journal things too... it's here if you ever want to learn what not to do ---> http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=73681

Good trading! Hopefully we can snag a good long entry this week.

-static
  • #243
  • May 4, 2008 10:54am May 4, 2008 10:54am
Quoting static
Raz,

I didn't realize that you had a journal; I will be following from now on. I think we trade very similarly. I was also a member of J16 and have been using that to supplement Jacko's methodology.

I am keeping one of these journal things too... it's here if you ever want to learn what not to do ---> http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=73681

Good trading! Hopefully we can snag a good long entry this week.

-static
Never say never.
  • #244
  • May 4, 2008 10:55am May 4, 2008 10:55am
Quoting razldazl
OK,
trying to get back on track I have been really lazy lately, here are a few eur charts where Im looking at the price action to show me where we are going. On the higher timeframes everything points down...weekly we have had a breakdown of last weeks BEOB and on the daily we had a breakdown of a dbhlc as well...so I dont see an end to this drop just yet.
Greeting,

I just read your journal and I found that we have share a belief: position sizing is key to manage risk!

I like your pascal triangle approach. My fibonaci entry sequence is similar to pascal. I read that you sometimes feel so secure on your judgement that go full blast with a lot. Is that strategy working?

Even though my style is very fast and aggresive...I trade the 5M, no stops, no indicators, just PA...lately I began testing a complementary trading style using the 3H and 15M charts...and I found Jacko's and your journal.

I have 1 question:

What make you so sure that PA will go your way to discard your small sizing strategy?

By the way... today I read your short analysis for E/U...I agree with you...I am short...why? your weekly chart is saying PA is falling at least another 100 pips...maybe more...so I am short and ready

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #245
  • May 4, 2008 11:01am May 4, 2008 11:01am
Quoting zoopy
lol. I'm actually glad you've taken a look at some of the stuff I've posted. I'm hoping it'll make some traders think about what they're doing when they make their trades (not just me).

Here's something else to think about. This is about waves again.

1. When you draw trendlines, what are you using as reference points?
2. Support and resistance levels, if you look at them carefully, what are they really?
3. Fib levels. Everyone loves using them because they say price bounces in those areas. What do you think you'll find in those areas?
4. Some use PA setups... they actually don't realize this but say for example a buob setup. When it works, it's actually a wave breaking to the upside.
Yes, we are all looking at the same information just delivered in different formats. I find PA clearer so I tend to keep going back to it, thats all. I really enjoy reading your journal zoopy keep it up take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #246
  • May 4, 2008 11:16am May 4, 2008 11:16am
Quoting luSan
Greeting,

I just read your journal and I found that we have share a belief: position sizing is key to manage risk!

I like your pascal triangle approach. My fibonaci entry sequence is similar to pascal. I read that you sometimes feel so secure on your judgement that go full blast with a lot. Is that strategy working?

Even though my style is very fast and aggresive...I trade the 5M, no stops, no indicators, just PA...lately I began testing a complementary trading style using the 3H and 15M charts...and I found Jacko's and your journal.

I have 1 question:

What make you so sure that PA will go your way to discard your small sizing strategy?

By the way... today I read your short analysis for E/U...I agree with you...I am short...why? your weekly chart is saying PA is falling at least another 100 pips...maybe more...so I am short and ready

Regards
I got really really fed up with getting in at a great position, adding and finding myself with a terrible entry point. I think pascal is ideal for smaller timeframes to be honest, and I think thats how twoblink uses it (twoblink correct me if Im wrong) because he exits once all of his positions are positive...whereas Im looking for more pips, so all this does to me is move my final position far away from where I got in in the first place, and my stop too close, I just ended up getting stopped out at breakeven and giving away all my profit too often.
Its not that Im SO SURE that its going to go my way, but I am willing to take the risk involved (2% of my account plus what I have gained that week/month) IF there is a good PA entry with confluence, be it a trendline, fibo, fibo pivot whatever, that makes me feel confident. Plus I count on Jackos AH strategy if I get knocked out.
I think eur is going to fall more, it doesnt look finished and like I said on all timeframes except 1hr it looks like it will continue to fall. Hope this helps, Raz
Never say never.
  • #247
  • May 4, 2008 11:30am May 4, 2008 11:30am
Weekly trendfan looks better than daily, less congested...the weekly 50 fib comes in around 1.5190, then we would have the weekly trendline just below for support so will be looking for PA in that area...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur weekly trendfan.gif Size: 17 KB
Never say never.
  • #248
  • May 11, 2008 9:33am May 11, 2008 9:33am
Quoting razldazl
Yes, we are all looking at the same information just delivered in different formats. I find PA clearer so I tend to keep going back to it, thats all. I really enjoy reading your journal zoopy keep it up take care, Raz
Yup, that's exactly what it is. Looking at the same information in a more distilled format.

What I was finding (not sure if other traders experience this too) but when I'm watching charts, especially bars and candles, seeing the actual movement of the bar/candle causes me to sometimes get into the trade too early or pull out because I see a spike happening. So... I thought about it and wondered how I'd do if I was to use a line. This way it hides that movement (you still see the up and down motion but it isn't as exaggerated).

I'll be trying the line charts for a while to see how it goes. What I have noticed though since the switch is that I'm more confident, have a calmer approach, I tend to be more patient and best of all I'm noticing I seem to have a far higher strike rate. Everyone is different though so what works for me may not work for others. The important thing is that you trade what suits you and your lifestyle.
  • #249
  • May 11, 2008 3:36pm May 11, 2008 3:36pm
Hey Zoopy,
Hope you had a nice holiday!
Yep I agree with what youre saying and I feel the same way. Things have gotten really relaxed on my end lol...I took the last daily pin on eur btw, lets see where it takes me, it coincided well with some other things ...Otherwise I just went on a wild ebay shopping binge, that felt great!
Speak soon, Raz
Never say never.
  • #250
  • May 11, 2008 4:02pm May 11, 2008 4:02pm
Quoting razldazl
Hey Zoopy,
Hope you had a nice holiday!
Yep I agree with what youre saying and I feel the same way. Things have gotten really relaxed on my end lol...I took the last daily pin on eur btw, lets see where it takes me, it coincided well with some other things ...Otherwise I just went on a wild ebay shopping binge, that felt great!
Speak soon, Raz
Hi Raz

The holiday was good! I think this week and maybe next, things are going to get crazy with design though lol. Might need to take another holiday away from design then
  • #251
  • May 11, 2008 4:09pm May 11, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting zoopy
Hi Raz

The holiday was good! I think this week and maybe next, things are going to get crazy with design though lol. Might need to take another holiday away from design then
Never say never.
  • #252
  • May 12, 2008 12:45am May 12, 2008 12:45am
Quoting static
[/b]
I agree. And if you are trading the break of a small wave upwards for a long trade (BUOB on, say, 4HR) at a place that is also a pullback of an even larger wave (say daily or weekly) then you are effectively trading PA off of major support and resistance levels.

However, I think that bar analysis in this case has the upper hand when fine-tuning entries because it allows us to more easily evaluate how the wave broke. It is more easily quantifiable simply because I know that each bar is 1 unit of time... so I can look at it and say "wow the market turned up equally as fast as it went down". To me this helps a person get a feel for the market.
Missed this post.

Interesting post Static and you're right when it comes to bars as far as quantity goes and the whole unit factor. However, personally I'm finding that in the past I was maybe over-analyzing price. By this I mean looking at the highs/lows and the open/close too carefully. A few weeks ago before I started the whole exercise with the waves, I was asking myself a number of questions. One of them was... "when you look at any chart, what really matters most? the highs? the lows? or is it really the closing price which is the most important?". Have you ever noticed in the news, more often than not they place importance on the closing price? They may mention it went up to a high of so and so but at the end of the day, what's printed is the closing price which is why I'm placing more importance on that. Another example... if you look at annual reports for any company, they don't mention how highthe stock prices peaked at or the lows, they give you the closing price.

As far as getting a real feel for the market and how it can react you are right. When it comes to fine tuning, I tend to not bother as much now. I will admit with this current style of trading I'm exploring, I tend to be sloppy and still get away with it. This is probably because I have a better understanding now than I did before which allows me more room for error. Fine tuning is good if you can pull it off consistently but I prefer a looser approach because for me, it's less stressful.

Just to add to the above comments, I'm interested in hearing your response to this and how you analyze price. When you said, "wow the market turned up equally as fast as it went down". Do you find this information helpful in actually placing a trade or do you end up looking at the closing price in the end? Personally for me, I find that information interesting but it doesn't give me the information I need to make a decision when it comes to placing a trade. Since this is Raz's journal, I'd be interested in hearing her thought's on this as well as other traders.
  • #253
  • May 12, 2008 4:00am May 12, 2008 4:00am
Well my answer to the last question is I personally NEED to see how price reacted at a certain area ie if you see a pin you see that buyers/sellers tried to get the price up but couldnt and that is very important (to me)..again it all comes down to what works for you, I like to have my stops as tight as possible and so if I am able to track a trade ie Im at home or at least coming and going then I like to watch the price action at given levels...for me its a struggle giving myself in to Jackos trails, just letting go because it goes against everything Ive learned and everything that works for me, so I tend to find an in between...so what I do ends up being a mix between Jacko, using PA to guide me and my stops are completely dependent on circumstances surrounding each trade. Lately the market has been taking all the 50 trailers and 100 trailers out and going back on its merry way (or not) so Im not convinced that a 100 pip stop is my bag...my last trade I trailed by 50 so I got knocked out with a 20 pip loss but back in with AH at 22 now...and will let that play out and using price action to give me clues as to direction. I use fibs as well and of course trendlines/fans...well babble babble, I hope I answered a part of what you were asking anyway (what was the question again? haha) Speak soon Zoopy, Raz
Never say never.
  • #254
  • May 12, 2008 5:27am May 12, 2008 5:27am
Cesarīs nice chart from over in his thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8305

You can see how the corrective channel top comes in around 5490, so lets see what happens if we get back up there again...thks Cesar! Raz
Never say never.
  • #255
  • May 12, 2008 8:07am May 12, 2008 8:07am
Quoting razldazl
Well my answer to the last question is I personally NEED to see how price reacted at a certain area ie if you see a pin you see that buyers/sellers tried to get the price up but couldnt and that is very important (to me)..again it all comes down to what works for you, I like to have my stops as tight as possible and so if I am able to track a trade ie Im at home or at least coming and going then I like to watch the price action at given levels...for me its a struggle giving myself in to Jackos trails, just letting go because it goes against everything Ive learned and everything that works for me, so I tend to find an in between...so what I do ends up being a mix between Jacko, using PA to guide me and my stops are completely dependent on circumstances surrounding each trade. Lately the market has been taking all the 50 trailers and 100 trailers out and going back on its merry way (or not) so Im not convinced that a 100 pip stop is my bag...my last trade I trailed by 50 so I got knocked out with a 20 pip loss but back in with AH at 22 now...and will let that play out and using price action to give me clues as to direction. I use fibs as well and of course trendlines/fans...well babble babble, I hope I answered a part of what you were asking anyway (what was the question again? haha) Speak soon Zoopy, Raz
Raz

I think what you have mentioned validates your point clearly because I can see why one would need to see PA from that perspective.

When I joined Jacko's group I also found it hard to apply the trailing stop since I had never really used it before. The other thing I also found hard was trying to set aside PA for the time being. Even though the J16 PA setups are helpful, I wanted to take a fresh look at how Jacko traded. When I did this, I started analyzing how price bounced instead and the movement it made at different levels which is probably why I have a different view.
  • #256
  • May 18, 2008 1:05pm May 18, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting razldazl
... using the Pascal triangle. I am convinced it is the best method for reducing risk, but you know I cant find any way to feel good about moving my entry point up way higher than when I orignally entered the market. Yes, the orignal entry is less risky, but as you add and your averaged posi moves up with the market, you start thinking about how great it would have been to have that same position 50 or so pips farther down..well, you get the picture.
I've enjoyed your thread. I was having similar thoughts here and I like your compromise. Have you tried this backwards? I mean putting on your full position to begin and then taking lots off using Pascal if/as the market moves against you?
Wheels
  • #257
  • May 18, 2008 3:31pm May 18, 2008 3:31pm
Hi 4x,
You know what I pretty well tried it all and my conclusion is that Jacko is right in the end, its just a complication...however that said, it depends how much time you have and how much you energy you are willing to put into each trade...I know a lot of traders scale in and out of positions and it does work, its just complicated mathwise. Putting it into practice for example, you would say take off 2.1 positions once your position goes against you by 28 pips, but remember you have to change your stop when that happens or you can end up with a stop order larger than your position which puts you in short if you dont watch etc etc...Im telling you its complex, you have to have time to watch and change orders and basically baby the trade. My problem with this is if I have a larger stop it means I have to take a smaller position, and Im trying to build up my account, so for me personally I would rather decide what Im willing to risk, look for the best entry possible, use the 50 sl and AH it if it doesnt work, and this has given me the kind of results I wanted...still would be interested in hearing how you get along with it, and still hoping to find a way to add successfully...from my own experience the only way to add is to add on dips, but you have to have balls of steel to do that, and again its all mathematical, I would never add randomly say when we hit plus 200 or plus 100 it would have to be after a dip and the trend is re-established...and when are we sure that has happened when we break a high or make a new high or when exactly?...its difficult and something I think has to be left to those lucky weeks we have when we have made some profit and have something extra to play with. For now Im playing it safe, trying to hold on to my profits and build them up so I can start taking on decent sized positions and start paying some bills with my trading profits (preferably shopping bills hehe) Keep in touch and let me know your thoughts, Raz
Never say never.
  • #258
  • May 18, 2008 4:27pm May 18, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting razldazl
Hi 4x,
You know what I pretty well tried it all and my conclusion is that Jacko is right in the end, its just a complication...however that said, it depends how much time you have and how much you energy you are willing to put into each trade...I know a lot of traders scale in and out of positions and it does work, its just complicated mathwise. Putting it into practice for example, you would say take off 2.1 positions once your position goes against you by 28 pips, but remember you have to change your stop when that happens or you can end up with a stop order larger than your position which puts you in short if you dont watch etc etc...Im telling you its complex, you have to have time to watch and change orders and basically baby the trade. My problem with this is if I have a larger stop it means I have to take a smaller position, and Im trying to build up my account, so for me personally I would rather decide what Im willing to risk, look for the best entry possible, use the 50 sl and AH it if it doesnt work, and this has given me the kind of results I wanted...still would be interested in hearing how you get along with it, and still hoping to find a way to add successfully...from my own experience the only way to add is to add on dips, but you have to have balls of steel to do that, and again its all mathematical, I would never add randomly say when we hit plus 200 or plus 100 it would have to be after a dip and the trend is re-established...and when are we sure that has happened when we break a high or make a new high or when exactly?...its difficult and something I think has to be left to those lucky weeks we have when we have made some profit and have something extra to play with. For now Im playing it safe, trying to hold on to my profits and build them up so I can start taking on decent sized positions and start paying some bills with my trading profits (preferably shopping bills hehe) Keep in touch and let me know your thoughts, Raz
That's very true. What I've done before was to have multiple lots and take profits at certain levels. Then one day I stopped to think about it and saw that one video clip on this site on whether one should "scale in" or "go all in" and thought I was making things way more complicated than it needed to be. Just keep things simple. Less maths required, less complicated, less stressful and chances are you will probably end up making more in the end lol.

I also agree with what you said about adding to a position after a dip rather than randomly. That's sort of what I'm looking into now because what I'm hoping is to build a large position when I see a dip forming and hopefully ride that out using waves as guidance. Not sure where all that is going yet... i'm taking a journey into the unknown. Might end up like that character in my avatar
  • #259
  • May 18, 2008 4:31pm May 18, 2008 4:31pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting zoopy
That's very true. What I've done before was to have multiple lots and take profits at certain levels. Then one day I stopped to think about it and saw that one video clip on this site on whether one should "scale in" or "go all in" and thought I was making things way more complicated than it needed to be. Just keep things simple. Less maths required, less complicated, less stressful and chances are you will probably end up making more in the end lol.

I also agree with what you said about adding to a position after a dip rather than randomly. That's sort of what I'm looking into now because what I'm hoping is to build a large position when I see a dip forming and hopefully ride that out using waves as guidance. Not sure where all that is going yet... i'm taking a journey into the unknown. Might end up like that character in my avatar
i thought that was your photo
  • #260
  • May 18, 2008 4:39pm May 18, 2008 4:39pm
Quoting MPP
i thought that was your photo
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