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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #78,061
  • May 3, 2008 5:35pm May 3, 2008 5:35pm
The Dow has advanced nearly 1,500 points from its January low and lulled market participants into a complacent state that is common (and necessary) before a major price decline occurs. What does this mean for the USDJPY?

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...747064926.html

Analyzing the Dow can help confirm or refute a Yen count. Since the October 2007 top above 14,000, declines in the Dow are impulsive (5 waves) and advances are corrective (3 waves). This is evidence of a bear market in its early stages and wave iii of 3 is ready to begin. The area just above 13,100 has acted as support and resistance since May 2007; today’s high at 13,132.30 could be the top of wave ii of 3. If so, then a major decline is upon us.
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #78,062
  • May 3, 2008 5:51pm May 3, 2008 5:51pm
Japanese markets will be closed until Wednesday for the Golden Week Holidays, UK bank holiday Monday...
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #78,063
  • May 3, 2008 6:30pm May 3, 2008 6:30pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
The Dow has advanced nearly 1,500 points from its January low and lulled market participants into a complacent state that is common (and necessary) before a major price decline occurs. What does this mean for the USDJPY?

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...747064926.html

Analyzing the Dow can help confirm or refute a Yen count. Since the October 2007 top above 14,000, declines in the Dow are impulsive (5 waves) and advances are corrective (3 waves). This is evidence of a bear market in its early stages and wave iii of 3 is ready to begin. The area just above 13,100 has acted as support and resistance since May 2007; today’s high at 13,132.30 could be the top of wave ii of 3. If so, then a major decline is upon us.
Thanks, but I have to go with what my charts are telling me. I'm holding my long for now. I don't read any analysist's comments from brokers sites as I don't trust a thing they say.

They have been wrong numerous times before, with the sole intention of getting traders to trade the wrong side and replace orders. The brokers need the money from the spread and the last thing they want is someone to buy right now and hold a position for 1yr whilst adding further lots as the beast travels North. Immense profit for the trader...no so much for the broker.

They would much prefer everyone to be placing short term trades with short term TP's at the moment. Plenty of Spread charges for them IMHO.

Unfortunately I have to dismiss ALL brokers analysist's comments. The brokers, I feel, would love EVERYONE to go short right now, of course they would. That is also why I will be staying Long...I Love to be a contrarian too... Many people place an order, then read what the so-called experts say on the broker sites, then change their order...only to watch the trade go in the direction they originally thought...why? Because the expert must be right! If I was an expert, which I am NOT, I certainly wouldn't be writting reports for a broker, would you? I mean with all of my so called expert trade calls I would be making so much money why bother working for them??? See what I mean??

Thankyou for the report from FXCM, but I will hold my Long with a large SL (to counter the market capture again on Monday/Tuesday) and see how this plays.

Happy Trading - If I am wrong well, never mind, I was 50% right
  • #78,064
  • May 3, 2008 7:04pm May 3, 2008 7:04pm
Amen to that


Quoting shakesfx
Thanks, but I have to go with what my charts are telling me. I'm holding my long for now. I don't read any analysist's comments from brokers sites as I don't trust a thing they say.

They have been wrong numerous times before, with the sole intention of getting traders to trade the wrong side and replace orders. The brokers need the money from the spread and the last thing they want is someone to buy right now and hold a position for 1yr whilst adding further lots as the beast travels North. Immense profit for the trader...no so much for the broker.

They would much prefer everyone to be placing short term trades with short term TP's at the moment. Plenty of Spread charges for them IMHO.

Unfortunately I have to dismiss ALL brokers analysist's comments. The brokers, I feel, would love EVERYONE to go short right now, of course they would. That is also why I will be staying Long...I Love to be a contrarian too... Many people place an order, then read what the so-called experts say on the broker sites, then change their order...only to watch the trade go in the direction they originally thought...why? Because the expert must be right! If I was an expert, which I am NOT, I certainly wouldn't be writting reports for a broker, would you? I mean with all of my so called expert trade calls I would be making so much money why bother working for them??? See what I mean??

Thankyou for the report from FXCM, but I will hold my Long with a large SL (to counter the market capture again on Monday/Tuesday) and see how this plays.

Happy Trading - If I am wrong well, never mind, I was 50% right
  • #78,065
  • May 3, 2008 7:07pm May 3, 2008 7:07pm
good night all and have a nice analyses see u tomorrow
byee
  • #78,066
  • May 3, 2008 7:12pm May 3, 2008 7:12pm
Jamie Saettele has some good analysis, particularly EW, I would not TRADE on it, but absorbing news, analysis, and sentiment on the beast's wide range of influences is informative.

Your charts, and most of them on this awesome thread, suggest down a bit then up in the short term, so I'm holding the short from 209...the big picture, which you can glimpse with the chart (Piters has had a crack at EW on it), suggests a downward 5 wave impulsive to 94 (2 waves pre-75?), since 94 its been a sideways flat, which completed at the last high (Green 1). EW is so subjective, but this interpretation does conclude a BIG decline is coming which fits with the DOW sub 13100 and the U/J sub 107.

You can certainly see that the beast has struggled relentlessly to go up in the last decade, ranging between 190 and 207 for 2.5 years it finally broke up, to a high not seen since 92, which we're coming down from now, so I don't think we'll be seeing 250 again anytime soon!


Learning to dance with the beast
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GY 1976-2008.png Size: 122 KB
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #78,067
  • May 3, 2008 7:45pm May 3, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting lilmoe
Amen to that
now that i did mention that i do agree with u. i think we need to see 206.38 area before heading back up.

210.5x will be good resistance (we might have a really nice price retracement after that, and that's where i'm going to place a nice short order, with a tight SL of course)

213.6x - 213.9x would also be good resistance (where i'm also going to place a short there)

here's a chart explaining why i think we should go down first. (and why i placed that short order last friday, and why i got out of it.) take a good look at how price acts around these levels. usually u wouldn't see some of these levels on a Fibo Expansion tool, but i personally like to add them, they proved useful to me.

if an hourly candle closes above 208.09 then i would consider a long and leave it be. HOWEVER, if an hourly candle closes below 206.38, then i would seriously ask u to consider that long of urs (for the short term that is.)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1.gif Size: 30 KB


take a look at the bearish divergence and h1 qqe5. just a heads up. again, i'm talking about the shorter term.

here's another daily candle to make thing look clearer in the bigger picture.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily2.gif Size: 22 KB


if we get a daily candle to close above 207.86, then next resistance is 209.11, then 210.53, after that 213.93. (price usually conforms better to FE 61.8 and FE 100). some brokers closed above, some (like mine) closed below. i usually follow my broker because it closes 2 hours AFTER interbankFX (9pm GMT)

now here's my plan, i see bearish divergence on h1 and if i get an hourly candle to at least pierce through 207.38 then i'm short for 206.38 as a first target. if the price ratraces back to 206.88 then heads back down then i'll add more shorts. if retracement goes beyond 206.88 then i'm closing my shorts and standing by.

on the contrary, i get an hourly CLOSE above 208.09, then i'm adding longs and targeting 208.99 as a first target, and of course will leave my longs run till we get the anticipated 210-213 area. (i really doubt we're going past 210, but hey, it's worth the try)

all depends on what's going to happen next week, see ya all there
have a nice sunday
  • #78,068
  • May 3, 2008 7:54pm May 3, 2008 7:54pm
Quoting shakesfx
Thanks, but I have to go with what my charts are telling me. I'm holding my long for now. I don't read any analysist's comments from brokers sites as I don't trust a thing they say.

They have been wrong numerous times before, with the sole intention of getting traders to trade the wrong side and replace orders. The brokers need the money from the spread and the last thing they want is someone to buy right now and hold a position for 1yr whilst adding further lots as the beast travels North. Immense profit for the trader...no so much for the broker.

They would much prefer everyone to be placing short term trades with short term TP's at the moment. Plenty of Spread charges for them IMHO.

Unfortunately I have to dismiss ALL brokers analysist's comments. The brokers, I feel, would love EVERYONE to go short right now, of course they would. That is also why I will be staying Long...I Love to be a contrarian too... Many people place an order, then read what the so-called experts say on the broker sites, then change their order...only to watch the trade go in the direction they originally thought...why? Because the expert must be right! If I was an expert, which I am NOT, I certainly wouldn't be writting reports for a broker, would you? I mean with all of my so called expert trade calls I would be making so much money why bother working for them??? See what I mean??

Thankyou for the report from FXCM, but I will hold my Long with a large SL (to counter the market capture again on Monday/Tuesday) and see how this plays.

Happy Trading - If I am wrong well, never mind, I was 50% right
You have a very good point. Thought of that too, but just didn't quite put it in words.
Expected the unexpected
  • #78,069
  • May 3, 2008 8:12pm May 3, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting toyboy tramp

You can certainly see that the beast has struggled relentlessly to go up in the last decade, ranging between 190 and 207 for 2.5 years it finally broke up, to a high not seen since 92, which we're coming down from now, so I don't think we'll be seeing 250 again anytime soon!
250 was definately tough resistance, however, it doesn't look like it wants to backdown. in 92' it was support before dropping to 150.
It may test 250 again, and if that's broke, we may see 500 again. (ALso I notice from long term chart, the lows are getting higher)
if not, maybe a short at 250 would be good.
Also, 1% at 100 is 1, and 1% at 500 is 5, so if we do go higher, we are looking at 1000 pip moves per day.
  • #78,070
  • Edited 8:53pm May 3, 2008 8:42pm | Edited 8:53pm
hey clouds, how's the weekend?

i was thinking if 250 was breached then we would go back to carry trades instead of 1000 pip moves per day. can u explain more to me why u think so?


Quoting Clouds
250 was definately tough resistance, however, it doesn't look like it wants to backdown. in 92' it was support before dropping to 150.
It may test 250 again, and if that's broke, we may see 500 again. (ALso I notice from long term chart, the lows are getting higher)
if not, maybe a short at 250 would be good.
Also, 1% at 100 is 1, and 1% at 500 is 5, so if we do go higher, we are looking at 1000 pip moves per day.
  • #78,071
  • Edited 10:55pm May 3, 2008 10:12pm | Edited 10:55pm
Quoting lilmoe
hey clouds, how's the weekend?

i was thinking if 250 was breached then we would go back to carry trades instead of 1000 pip moves per day. can u explain more to me why u think so?
Hi, weekend is good. Hope yours is going well too. Well, the chart, highs are in 650 range, lows 150, we are closer to lows, and more likely go up, but honestly I would like to not be trading and retired on beach, or mountains, by that time, if we are talking 15 years. It may go to 300 and back to 220, I have no idea. What did you want me to explain exactly? Currencies move about 1% per day, so now we moving about 200 pips day. If it go up so high, we move 500 pips day average. It can go right up to 650 or 750 and then drop down to 100. Over next 20 years. I just trade day to day, and I closed my short friday too. - Also if you look at chart, it go from 150 to 250 and back to 200 (50% retrace), now we going up again. And, if you look at the long-term chart, look what happened in 83' it went from 450 to 350 in a straight line down, in matter of months, might not have to wait too long to snap up to 350.
  • #78,072
  • Edited May 4, 2008 12:50am May 3, 2008 10:29pm | Edited May 4, 2008 12:50am
i see that everyone wanna ruin this method, anyway everyone know what is the good for him and his buisness, and i am demo trader coz i lost my accounts before in this forum so no lose in capital i face or less profits i earn . and this method is good for different markets, and in forex long term monthly or even yearly.
  • #78,073
  • May 3, 2008 11:19pm May 3, 2008 11:19pm
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
-- Albert Einstein.
  • #78,074
  • May 4, 2008 12:45am May 4, 2008 12:45am
now no because closed market
Attached Image
  • #78,075
  • May 4, 2008 2:22am May 4, 2008 2:22am
Quoting warta
Attachment

any comment ?
COG

becareful with this indi..
its repaint and change value..not good for historical valuation!

but i like the COG curve..its like predicting the trend..

pop
{Promotion Removed}
  • #78,076
  • May 4, 2008 3:44am May 4, 2008 3:44am
Just wanted to take a moment to post a few charts from Friday's fun. It wasn't exactly a thrill ride, but there was opportunity. I hope this helps and as always I welcome any feedback. Iron sharpens iron!

The last chart is a 1 hr which shows price action from 4/30/08 thru Friday's close.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 5m 050208a.jpg Size: 190 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 5m 050208b.jpg Size: 174 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 5m 050208c.jpg Size: 167 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 5m 050208d.gif Size: 49 KB
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #78,077
  • May 4, 2008 4:52am May 4, 2008 4:52am
Quoting popisdead
COG

becareful with this indi..
its repaint and change value..not good for historical valuation!

but i like the COG curve..its like predicting the trend..

pop

hi bro
i think all indicators repaint themselve
  • #78,078
  • Edited 7:14am May 4, 2008 6:59am | Edited 7:14am
how to deal with agressive markets, this is a very good quistion i was keeping ask myself, about the right way to deal with market.
you have to invent more strategies and prove to yourself as a trader that you can afford facing this kind market and win by good trades.
is like price facing hard resistance the trader facing hard resistance and keep updating himself with new stratgies and new tactics to proceed the mental side of him,and mean by mental side the (take decision process).
which is the more value moment in traders career life.
  • #78,079
  • May 4, 2008 8:28am May 4, 2008 8:28am
yes. be careful with that indicator. the pair can go way OB or OS before it turns.

Quoting warta
Attachment

any comment ?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #78,080
  • Edited 9:17am May 4, 2008 8:57am | Edited 9:17am
lilmoe, might be just a typo... check your charts again, on h1 i see a hidden bullish and not a classical bearish divergence...
here's the chart. i marked the divergence which can be seen on ALL oscillators. on a close above HiLo i would go long all the way to above 209.

Quoting lilmoe

... take a look at the bearish divergence and h1 qqe5. just a heads up. again, i'm talking about the shorter term.
...

now here's my plan, i see bearish divergence on h1...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjh1.gif Size: 24 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
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